IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The 12z GFS ensemble members are all over the place, with many tracks inside the op and many much slower are faster solutions than the op http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf162.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The 12z GFS ensemble members are all over the place, with many tracks inside the op and many much slower are faster solutions than the op http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf162.html pertubations gon' perturb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 yeah, this thread is just teeming with good tropical discussion... there will be a new one started this evening that will be more moderated It's kind of hard to take something serious that is pretty much a week away, especially when the thread was started when the storm was 200 + hours away. Can we have a Irene banter thread and a regular moderated one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's kind of hard to take something serious that is pretty much a week away, especially when the thread was started when the storm was 200 + hours away. Can we have a Irene banter thread and a regular moderated one? It's not like a winter event where the main system forms a day or two before effects in the region start. The storm is currently active and its progress right now will have an effect on how it impacts us down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's kind of hard to take something serious that is pretty much a week away, especially when the thread was started when the storm was 200 + hours away. Can we have a Irene banter thread and a regular moderated one? Reading this thread from work today, it has been horrible. Regardless of the impacts down the road, the discussion is far from on topic. I have no real issues with you, but you saying a model is way east and turns out its way west just hurts ur credibility of a poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's not like a winter event where the main system forms a day or two before effects in the region start. The storm is currently active and its progress right now will have an effect on how it impacts us down the road. he is just hating because the Hurricane will likely screw up his 6am tee time on Monday morning, were polar opposites when it comes to good rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Reading this thread from work today, it has been horrible. Regardless of the impacts down the road, the discussion is far from on topic. I have no real issues with you, but you saying a model is way east and turns out its way west just hurts ur credibility of a poster Correction, he was "hoping" that the model was shifting way east. I'm not exactly wishing for a cat 4 or 5 up this way but it would be awesome to get a strong cane into western LI. Once in 25-30 year experience up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Even as is, the 12z GFS brings winds of 50+ knots to Islip, LI and rain amounts of 8"-10": http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_kisp.txt and those numbers are usually notoriously low in the long range... in my experience. If the storm slows down and we can get a high pressure build to our north, we can get big winds from the PG even with an offshore track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Reading this thread from work today, it has been horrible. Regardless of the impacts down the road, the discussion is far from on topic. I have no real issues with you, but you saying a model is way east and turns out its way west just hurts ur credibility of a poster no worries dude, but I said the euro was coming in east, which is was, till it slowed down and the trough blew by, and then i said it was west. So, just quote me accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro wasnt really coming east early on. It was just 6-12 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I think the general rule that applies during winter storms should apply here. Let the model finish running before proclaiming out to sea, apps runner etc. Euro wasnt really coming east early on. It was just 6-12 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z UKIE is fairly similar to Euro with riding the storm further inland: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I think the general rule that applies during winter storms should apply here. Let the model finish running before proclaiming out to sea, apps runner etc. It makes it alot easier when one is reading from a phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 modelpusssies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Did you guys hear they upgraded to a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Did you guys hear they upgraded to a hurricane? Thread starter has not been on today to edit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 LOL yes we did, just didn't updated the thread title Did you guys hear they upgraded to a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Gfs ensembles are mostly clustered to the west of the op run.......even 2 member hitting Fl..... http://www.wundergro...9_ensmodel.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z Euro ensembles in and show tight agreement through 96 hours, then a muddled mess beyond that...less out to sea scenarios, but a couple more FL scenarios, with centers ranging from up the coast to the FL panhandle. Also higher heights overall in the Northeast. This tells me that something is awry with the speed of this storm as it moves up the coast. And to that end it is slower than the 00z ensembles as well. Long way to go on this one still. FWIW, the ens. "mean" is in line with the Op Euro and overall seems slightly further west than 00z as well...still would favor an NC/SC border storm. Euro ensembles from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I know that NAM is not a very good Tropical model, but it insists on bringing this system in south FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Gfs ensembles are mostly clustered to the west of the op run.......even 2 member hitting Fl..... http://www.wundergro...9_ensmodel.html there are alot of big hits there, and none of them are as far west as the Euro, except the stray mess that hits FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 NHC has it as a cat 2 hitting around the border of NC/SC Saturday afternoon there are alot of big hits there, and none of them are as far west as the Euro, except the stray mess that hits FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 NHC has it as a cat 2 hitting around the border of NC/SC Saturday afternoon They have it hitting as a major cat 3, their 5 day point is after landfall with weakening due to land interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 By the way the difference between a 95 kt. category two and a 100 kt. category three is only five kts. and probably all intensity estimates are valid to within plus/minus five kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 By the way the difference between a 95 kt. category two and a 100 kt. category three is only five kts. and probably all intensity estimates are valid to within plus/minus five kts. Can you explain this further? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 18z GFS more or less misses the trough and stalls out off the SE coast, what a mess through 120hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hr 156, track pretty much right over Ocean City, MD, at this point its already been raining for over a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 wow.. 18Z GFS will make you wish it was winter.. oh my! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 On this run, HP has an absolute death drip over SE Canada, One could only dream of this in the winter time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 On this run, HP has an absolute death drip over NE Canada, One could only dream of this in the winter time It's pretty unreal.. if you were to ignore anything related to temperature, you would think this thing was an epic winter nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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