TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 CMC has all the rain and "wind" gone by my 6am tee time Monday morning, a full half day faster than the GFS. It's def. east of the gfs too pretty much giving nothing west of the River Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z HWRF has shifted well west from 6z takes a cat 5 into SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 CMC has all the rain and "wind" gone by my 6am tee time Monday morning, a full half day faster than the GFS. It's def. east of the gfs too pretty much giving nothing west of the River Hudson. CMC is west of GFS for NC, but then recurves a little sharper and ends up east of GFS at our longitude. 12z UKIE still hits near SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z HWRF has shifted well west from 6z takes a cat 5 into SC The single WORST model tropical weather. Euro coming in East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 CMC is west of GFS for NC, but then recurves a little sharper and end up east of GFS at our lattitude. 12z UKIE still hits near SC. It can rain cats and dogs if its over at 6:06am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I am leaving on a Canada/New England cruise from NYC on Sat 8/27, Supposed to be in Halifax on Monday, I am hoping anyway..... sorry for the IMBY post but I wondering about the timing of this, maybe they will be able to send us to Bermuda instead!! In any case I will have to pack plenty of Dramamine!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Per the main thread, Irene is tracking closer to Hispanolia than alot of the models have it, the pressure has come up a bit, and a weaker system would tend to stay further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The single WORST model tropical weather. Euro coming in East. the Euro is NOT a big shift east, maybe slightly eastward, but not much, rakes the Bahamas as a high end cat 3, 960mb on Friday off of FL, looks pretty spot on to the official NHC forecast track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hr 120 appears to be heading for a landfall near the SC/NC border, slight shift eastward, 936 mb cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hr 120 appears to be heading for a landfall near the SC/NC border, slight shift eastward, 936 mb cat 4 Might be bad news for Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro is west of 0z. Stalls out and keeps heading inland thru hour 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro is west of 0z. Stalls out and keeps heading inland thru hour 162. way west and sends flooding rains into upstate NY, floodfan would be cursing that track as we actually get dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 way west and sends flooding rains into upstate NY, floodfan would be cursing that track as we actually get dry slotted. yeah, I'm hoping for about 30" of rain in about 6 hours, that should do it. Maybe the world is ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Sounds like the reason for the westward shift was slower timing, which allows Irene to escape from being pulled away by one of the troughs. If we don't want a boring out-to-sea solution, we might want to root for slower timing with this storm. A compromise between the Euro and GFS solutions would be the worst-case scenario for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Still a lot of uncertainty with this. It likely won't be for another 72 hours at least before we can really nail down a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Sounds like the reason for the westward shift was slower timing, which allows Irene to escape from being pulled away by one of the troughs. If we don't want a boring out-to-sea solution, we should continue to root for slower timing with this storm. A compromise between the Euro and GFS solutions would be the worst-case scenario for us. euro does some weird stuff to the storm near Hispaniola which slows it down and lets the trough scoot east. I haven't followed the euro this summer but last winter it had some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Still a lot of uncertainty with this. It likely won't be for another five days at least before we can really nail down a track. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Sounds like the reason for the westward shift was slower timing, which allows Irene to escape from being pulled away by one of the troughs. If we don't want a boring out-to-sea solution, we might want to root for slower timing with this storm. A compromise between the Euro and GFS solutions would be the worst-case scenario for us. I just posted that in the other thread. A compromise would be scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I just posted that in the other thread. A compromise would be scary. Isn't that pretty much what 6z GFS had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Who is that kid who loved the NOGAPS over the winter? Its way east and fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro is west of 0z. Stalls out and keeps heading inland thru hour 162. yeah, you would have to send your boat to flood fan with the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Isn't that pretty much what 6z GFS had? Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I just posted that in the other thread. A compromise would be scary. Just about anything's possible given Hispaniola and the various trough interactions. Heck-it could still hit South Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just about anything's possible given Hispaniola and the various trough interactions. Heck-it could still hit South Florida. That option is coming off the table, but not totally impossible. That basically has as much chance as the storm missing the entire coast except for ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Isn't that pretty much what 6z GFS had? Basically, yeah. Has it at 973 mb riding right up the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Basically, yeah. Has it at 973 mb riding right up the Jersey shore. the HP looks to be in perfect position, we should all stay snow, banding is going to be crucial though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 the snow/mixing jokes were funny for the first couple times in June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Even as is, the 12z GFS brings winds of 50+ knots to Islip, LI and rain amounts of 8"-10": http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kisp.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 the snow/mixing jokes were funny for the first couple times in June... yeah, this thread is just teeming with good tropical discussion... there will be a new one started this evening that will be more moderated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 the snow/mixing jokes were funny for the first couple times in June... Let's save them for the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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