IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hr 153 its crawling to the north, just south of the benchmark, everyone from about the DE river east gets soaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What exactly is this 'worst case scenario'? It's clipping eastern NC this run and at Hour 138 is already E of NC. Sure doesn't sound like the scenario of a hurricane moving NW into NJ that I've always been told was the worst case scenario. This is not the "worst case scenario" I thought it would be since it avoids a long duration over land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hurricane Isabel in Sept 2003 would have been the worst case scenario for us had it made landfall 250 miles further north.SE winds of 100MPH would have done a tremendous amount of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 overall its a glancing blow, and a mess, not really a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z gfs is a lot of rain but not much wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Fish Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Dumps a lot of rain on the coast and east of NYC, but slashes amounts for western areas....more in the 2 to 3" range. This will change 20 more times so means nothing at this point. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Another shift east. Major trough coming into the upper midwest is going to keep this thing at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like an average forward speed of 20mph from hour 141 to 153. I don't think that is crawling for a TC. One can presume it is probably less than 20 MPH at the beginning of that period and more than 20MPH at the end of that period. However plausible this scenario, I'm not ready to rely on the day 6 GFS for TC track forecasting. Hr 153 its crawling to the north, just south of the benchmark, everyone from about the DE river east gets soaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Now he says NC then NNE to New England. That sounds more east of Floyd to me but could be more damaging to LI and New England if they take a direct, though quick hit. Joe Bastardi thinks Irene's possible track mirrors Floyd of '99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 [Hope everyone that is discounting this storm as not much wind and rain on the west side- if the 12Z GFS track and strength Cat 3 or 4 on the NC coast verifies a big IF - the entire coast from NC to New England will have to be evacuated as a precaution - millions of people in the summer.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Now he says NC then NNE to New England. That sounds more east of Floyd to me but could be more damaging to LI and New England if they take a direct, though quick hit. lol, it sounds like he's just hugging whatever the latest GFS run says. I, for one, hope this east trend stops, like now. Any further east and the rain threat will start to significantly diminish as well as the wind threat. Right now the 12z GFS has a very sharp cutoff from west-to-east in NJ: from just 1-2'' in far NW NJ to 3-6'' in the NYC metro area. Let's see what the Euro and GFS ensembles say to see if this is a legitimate trend or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's important to note that the 12z GFS initialized the storm at 1005 mb when in fact its actually at 988, and appears to be intensifying, don't fall into the trap of model hugging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 [Hope everyone that is discounting this storm as not much wind and rain on the west side- if the 12Z GFS track and strength Cat 3 or 4 on the NC coast verifies a big IF - the entire coast from NC to New England will have to be evacuated as a precaution - millions of people in the summer.......... lol not they wouldn't the NE coast landfall checklist is missing many items, no real blocking to our NE and the trough over the midwest is shallow and without a good neg tilt. This could change as we get close to the weknd but right now we have two camps, either the storm goes into SC and we just get heavy rain or its a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's important to note that the 12z GFS initialized the storm at 1005 mb when in fact its actually at 988, and appears to be intensifying, don't fall into the trap of model hugging Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but how do mistakes like that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just remember folks...we're talking the same GFS that once initialized a cat 5 as an open wave (2007, I think). Watch it cautiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 lol not they wouldn't the NE coast landfall checklist is missing many items, no real blocking to our NE and the trough over the midwest is shallow and without a good neg tilt. This could change as we get close to the weknd but right now we have two camps, either the storm goes into SC and we just get heavy rain or its a fish. doesn't matter anyway the 12Z GFS has errors one being it initialized the storm too weak and at 500mb at hour 108 which throws the entire track to far east .... as for evacuations in 1985 Gloria evacuations along the coastal islands here in NJ and even slightly inland right along bays and ocean facing flooding zones - also in 1976 for Belle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but how do mistakes like that happen? I don't know for sure (might want to ask in the main thread) but I have to imagine the GFS's coarse resolution doesn't allow it to resolve tropical cyclone mesoscale intricacies all that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just remember folks...we're talking the same GFS that once initialized a cat 5 as an open wave (2007, I think). Watch it cautiously. the GFS is the same now as it was in 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I wish you all the best of luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Not sure what to make of this from the main thread, DT on the book: "12Z MONDAY AUG 22 GFS MODEL UDPATE - the 12 gfs continues to bend IRENE North well east of FLORIDA... much like we saw with Irene in 1999. The Model has landfall at WILMINGTON NC. But the 12z GFS has a ERRRO in its Jet stream pattern at day 5 thru day 7 which causes the Model to bend IRENE further East.... BE CAREFUL USING THE GFS PAST 120 HRS...... " for u weather geeks out there -- at 120 hrs the 12z GFS has strong 2nd trough moving into the western Great Lakes . This trough comes in from western Canada where there is MAJOR "data void". Because of the GFS Model cold bais the model is OVERDOING this 2nd trough as it moves into the Great Lakes ... anf this torugh then knocks Irene further east." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 here's my headline for Friday "strong hurricane Irene passes well off the coast sparing damage and lost revenue for Coastline merchants hoping to cash in on summer's last weeks" - warning for riptides and rough surf.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 lol, it sounds like he's just hugging whatever the latest GFS run says. I, for one, hope this east trend stops, like now. Any further east and the rain threat will start to significantly diminish as well as the wind threat. Right now the 12z GFS has a very sharp cutoff from west-to-east in NJ: from just 1-2'' in far NW NJ to 3-6'' in the NYC metro area. Let's see what the Euro and GFS ensembles say to see if this is a legitimate trend or not. Yes, we are absolutely desperate for even more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 here's my headline for Friday "strong hurricane Irene passes well off the coast sparing damage and lost revenue for Coastline merchants hoping to cash in on summer's last weeks" - warning for riptides and rough surf.... or more likely in my opinion... Dangerous catagory 4 hurricane Irene bears down on Charleston, SC, Maximum sustained winds of 145 MPH. Hurricane Warnings in affect from the GA/SC border all the way up to Hilton Head, NC. Hurricane watch in affect all the way up to the mouth of the Chesepeake Bay, Tropical storm watch in affect for the NYC area. Landfall somewhere around Wilmington, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I believe it's a fish storm for the most part...It might end up tracking like Betsy in 1956... http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1956/BETSY/track.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z GGEM looks very similar to GFS. Perhaps even more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I believe it's a fish storm for the most part...It might end up tracking like Betsy in 1956... http://weather.unisy...BETSY/track.gif agree-the fact that the guidance is correcting so far east at this early stage is telling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z GGEM looks very similar to GFS. Perhaps even more east. yep, the track is very similar, and the sharp QPF output is similar as well, if the Euro shifts eastward we may have a problem, even though we're still 5+ days out. I remember last year thinking the models would shift back westward but it never happened once they got locked into the eastward curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 FWIW, even if Irene passes on its currently forecast track (12z GFS) or even a shade farther east, the storm could push the month's rainfall to a new monthly record. To date, August has seen 11.59" rain. That is just below the monthly record of 12.36", which was set in 1990. The all-time monthly mark is 16.85" from September 1882. October 2005 came close, with 16.73". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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