SnowGoose69 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 As "cool" as it would be to get a hurricane to come into the metro area w/ a new moon- realistically the chances of this happening is slim to none.. Plus., i can't imagine the extent of the damage that would result.. On the other hand we've had a lot of strange weather occurances over the past few years.. So nothing would surprise me.. It's been 26 years since a full fledged hurricane hit the Tri-state... So we're definitely due... This one to me would be an Easter LI hitter, alot like Gloria and Bob if it did impact the area. I do not see a very favorable setup at this point where this would take the disaster track just missing Cape Hatteras and blasting due northward into west-central LI. The overall setup to me screams it either comes more into SC or possibly as far NE as Wilmington NC and loses a ton of its punch by the time it reaches LI or it simply gets kicked too far out to sea as the other option. I tend not to like forecasting hurricanes to hit the corridor from about Cape Canaveral to Savannah because history has proven its simply so rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This bad boy has a far greater chance of going wide right then left. We have had a very active flow across the north all summer, kinda hard to imagine this doesnt get booted east. your not alone in your thoughts, but no model to date has shown this missing way right ot the point where we saw no impacts at all. The angle of approach means so much. If it's offshore at the Delmarva moving for a LI landfall anywhere close to the intesity that the Euro shows, those counter clockwise winds are going to be blowing on shore, thus forcing all of the water towards the coast. If the system is inland over the Delmarva, and moving more NE, then eastern LI gets the brunt of it, and for a majority of the system we get the weaker offshore winds. Our odds on this system are probably one out of a hundred instead of our normal 1 out of 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah but how many times have we seen hurricanes forecast to affect the coast that end up so far out to sea that nobody feels any impact your not alone in your thoughts, but no model to date has shown this missing way right ot the point where we saw no impacts at all. The angle of approach means so much. If it's offshore at the Delmarva moving for a LI landfall anywhere close to the intesity that the Euro shows, those counter clockwise winds are going to be blowing on shore, thus forcing all of the water towards the coast. If the system is inland over the Delmarva, and moving more NE, then eastern LI gets the brunt of it, and for a majority of the system we get the weaker offshore winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This one to me would be an Easter LI hitter, alot like Gloria and Bob if it did impact the area. I do not see a very favorable setup at this point where this would take the disaster track just missing Cape Hatteras and blasting due northward into west-central LI. The overall setup to me screams it either comes more into SC or possibly as far NE as Wilmington NC and loses a ton of its punch by the time it reaches LI or it simply gets kicked too far out to sea as the other option. I tend not to like forecasting hurricanes to hit the corridor from about Cape Canaveral to Savannah because history has proven its simply so rare. I agree with u completely.. Interestingly. I was in Huntington in 91 for bob and despite being 100 miles to the west of the center we had 50-60 mph winds.. If anything this seems like a similar scenario that is possible in this situation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Joe Bastardi thinks Irene's possible track mirrors Floyd of '99. didn't he have it coming into Savannah just a few days ago? LOL. - See this so many times...and then the eventual track is further East than expected...see Earl last year for the latest example...most ended up high and dry.....sure, we're due, but 6 days out, lots can change and I'd expect a further east track with each run.....will be fun to track in the meantime.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah but how many times have we seen hurricanes forecast to affect the coast that end up so far out to sea that nobody feels any impact I want to make one thing clear, I'm not forecasting a major impact disaster track, but I think the odds favor some impact from this system, with flooding probably the biggest threat. Maybe we end up completely high and dry, and alot of people would be happy with that, but we don't get these chances too often so it would be cool to cash in. it's been 12 years since we had a serious tropical threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 One good thing is we seem to have a pretty nice and dry week on tap, other than a minor threat on Thursday we should have at least 6 or 7 days to dry out. didn't he have it coming into Savannah just a few days ago? LOL. - See this so many times...and then the eventual track is further East than expected...see Earl last year for the latest example...most ended up high and dry.....sure, we're due, but 6 days out, lots can change and I'd expect a further east track with each run.....will be fun to track in the meantime.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The 6z GFS ensemble members were still all over the place http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf168.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 One good thing is we seem to have a pretty nice and dry week on tap, other than a minor threat on Thursday we should have at least 6 or 7 days to dry out. ummm... it wouldn't be enough, take a look at the reservoir levels, if this is still in the cards come Thursday, they are going to start releasing water, in fact they may start sooner, otherwise the dam system is in Jepordy over NE NJ. Over 90% capacity everywhere. http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 ummm... it wouldn't be enough, take a look at the reservoir levels, if this is still in the cards come Thursday, they are going to start releasing water, in fact they may start sooner, otherwise the dam system is in Jepordy over NE NJ. Over 90% capacity everywhere. http://www.nyc.gov/h...vels_wide.shtml Drink an extra glass of water each day this week and eveything will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 don't think anyone is jumping on one solution yet, just outlining the possibilities. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 As we saw last Sunday, NYC can easily handle 6"-10" of rain. Biggest threat is coastal erosion and flooding. Irene would come on the day of the new moon. Coastal flooding along with possible wind damage is the biggest threat for NYC and LI. Interior sections have to worry about rainfall flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 As we saw last Sunday, NYC can easily handle 6"-10" of rain. Biggest threat is coastal erosion and flooding. Irene would come on the day of the new moon. Coastal flooding along with possible wind damage is the biggest threat for NYC and LI. Interior sections have to worry about heavy wet snow. Dude, come on, its posts like these that really ruin the reputation of the nyc metro forum. In all seriousness, agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 But for those of us who don't live near reservoirs or rivers we are more concerned how saturated the ground is and how much rain it can handle before it starts coming into my basement. Last week I had nearly 6" but haven't had any issues. Last March the same amount of rain on semi frozen, saturated ground was disastrous. I would think the reservoirs wouldn't be able to handle much more than 3 to 5" let alone 8-10 if they are getting as high as you say. ummm... it wouldn't be enough, take a look at the reservoir levels, if this is still in the cards come Thursday, they are going to start releasing water, in fact they may start sooner, otherwise the dam system is in Jepordy over NE NJ. Over 90% capacity everywhere. http://www.nyc.gov/h...vels_wide.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 As we saw last Sunday, NYC can easily handle 6"-10" of rain. Biggest threat is coastal erosion and flooding. Irene would come on the day of the new moon. Coastal flooding along with possible wind damage is the biggest threat for NYC and LI. Interior sections have to worry about rainfall flooding. I don't think anyone is worried about river flooding in the city, but there was quite a bit of flash flooding last week, and 6-10" of rain might be on the low side if the system gets here well organized. The Passaic river basin can't handle 3-5" without flooding, let alone this amount in such a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I agree with u completely.. Interestingly. I was in Huntington in 91 for bob and despite being 100 miles to the west of the center we had 50-60 mph winds.. If anything this seems like a similar scenario that is possible in this situation.. I remember with Bob that I did not see any tree damage at all until I reached the end of the NSP just a few miles from the 347 intersection. From there on eastward there was a marked increase in the amount of tree damage and by the time I reached the intersection of 347 and 25A in Miller Place it got to the point that trees were down and the power was out. Still though, even places like Rocky Point and Port Jefferson saw at best a 30-45 minute period of a few gusts probably to near 70-75 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 And being on the western side of Bob we didn't see much of anything, just rain and maybe a 20-30 mph gust or two I remember with Bob that I did not see any tree damage at all until I reached the end of the NSP just a few miles from the 347 intersection. From there on eastward there was a marked increase in the amount of tree damage and by the time I reached the intersection of 347 and 25A in Miller Place it got to the point that trees were down and the power was out. Still though, even places like Rocky Point and Port Jefferson saw at best a 30-45 minute period of a few gusts probably to near 70-75 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 And being on the western side of Bob we didn't see much of anything, just rain and maybe a 20-30 mph gust or two exactly. This far north with tropical systems, gotta be on the east side for the winds. Rain can spread around, but even that usually is heaviest on the east side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 They are often predicted, we've been in a few tropical storm warnings or inland wind warnings or whatever but almost always underproduce. I think we'd need a storm to come into the carolinas and up the delaware bay or eastern pennsylvania as a tropical storm to really get the winds. exactly. This far north with tropical systems, gotta be on the east side for the winds. Rain can spread around, but even that usually is heaviest on the east side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 exactly. This far north with tropical systems, gotta be on the east side for the winds. Rain can spread around, but even that usually is heaviest on the east side as well. I don't believe this is correct.. Gloria which came into central LI caused more rain to the west of it's track.. Same w/ floyd... I believe winds are east and more drenching rains are west. Correct me if I am wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 all good points, but I guess your discounting the strength that some of the models have been showing. Yeah its probably not realistic, but a track off shore would be right along the gulf stream, and the water temps don't get much warmer around here than they are now, so if there was a time, this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't believe this is correct.. Gloria which came into central LI caused more rain to the west of it's track.. Same w/ floyd... I believe winds are east and more drenching rains are west. Correct me if I am wrong.. Floyd had major interaction with a trough, which helped to maximize rainfall amounts on the western side, not your typical tropical cyclone up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hey. Can the thread title be changed to Hurricane Irene, or is the current title just predicting that when it gets to this latitude it will be a TS again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 And being on the western side of Bob we didn't see much of anything, just rain and maybe a 20-30 mph gust or two Bob was miserably forecast in terms of track in the short range, the anticipated track in the evening hours of August 18th was over central LI, in reality that was a solid 60-75 mile error at 18 hours, pretty severe even in 1991. Bob's forecast was one of the few NHC black eyes during the 1985-1995 period where overall most of their tracks in the short range were very good, including the remarkable accuracy of Hugo in 1989. Gloria's track was well forecast, however the storm weakened way more than most forecasts had anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The latest track now takes the Hurricane into Charleston as a major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z GFS track looks well east of the NHC forecast track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hr 114 headed towards cape hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This is looking like a worse case scenario for our area track, just a brush on eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hr 141, nearly stalled out just north of NC with weak stearing currents, everyone gets soaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This is looking like a worse case scenario for our area track, just a brush on eastern NC What exactly is this 'worst case scenario'? It's clipping eastern NC this run and at Hour 138 is already E of NC. Sure doesn't sound like the scenario of a hurricane moving NW into NJ that I've always been told was the worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.