A-L-E-X Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro has it clipping Montauk Point, a Bob-like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's now a hurricane Irene: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro has it clipping Montauk Point, a Bob-like track. 0z/22 Euro has a Cat 3 just of the Delmarva at 168hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 6Z GFS would look interesting up this way! My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just a tad wet.... I imagine there'd be some erosion problems too if the winds were this strong out of the east for this long as shown by the GFS. Man, only if it were January.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 some places om long island received over 10 in of rain last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just saw 6z GFS and 0z Euro; A blend of those 2 would be almost the worst case scenario for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just saw 6z GFS and 0z Euro; A blend of those 2 would be almost the worst case scenario for NYC. you arent kidding. This we could be dealig pretty quickly with Floyd-like flooding and wind , perhaps more widespred or even worse in those scenarios. What a turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The 00z Euro's evolution would be an emergency situation for Ocean City, Maryland and surrounding areas. That being said...most of it is speculation at this point and nothing else. We're going to see severe fluctuations the next few days--the models were so off within a 36-48 hour period with this system over the past few days that I currently have trouble believing anything past the 84 hour mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just saw 6z GFS and 0z Euro; A blend of those 2 would be almost the worst case scenario for NYC. It looks like the GFS tries to keep it at hurricane strength after re-emerging into the atlantic from the delmarva region before making a second landfall on central LI. Would be a pretty impressive outcome if this were to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just saw 6z GFS and 0z Euro; A blend of those 2 would be almost the worst case scenario for NYC. 6Z GFS has a 973 or 28.73 storm sitting very close to NYC metro at 168 hours . Reason for this is the storm on the 6Z came up the coast at least 75- 100 miles further east and did not make landfall until it reached lower North Carolina and then stayed right along the coast maintaining its strength probably as a CAT 2 storm at least - devastating storm because it is not moving fast ....puts out close to 10 inches from south jersey eastern PA toNYC Metro..- Unreal - BUT just one possibility at this point 1 week away... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The 00z Euro's evolution would be an emergency situation for Ocean City, Maryland and surrounding areas. That being said...most of it is speculation at this point and nothing else. We're going to see severe fluctuations the next few days--the models were so off within a 36-48 hour period with this system over the past few days that I currently have trouble believing anything past the 84 hour mark. I agree. One of things I can see changing is models handle that trough over Mid-west. It could come in faster and force the hurricane to go further east. I do think the likely intensity, off the East coast, is start to come clearer now, as it looks like it the eye will only skirt the Hispaniola north coast or miss it entirely . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A 6z gfs track would bring severe coastal flooding to the region with the slow motion of the storm and the new moon on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Plenty of time before we seriously can consider this threat. 168 hours out for a hurricane is like tracking a shortwave crossing the Pacific in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Plenty of time before we seriously can consider this threat. 168 hours out for a hurricane is like tracking a shortwave crossing the Pacific in winter. Its the consistency in the modeling that raises the eyebrow. Sure there are details to be worked out but its pretty certain Irene is coming up this way eventually. Just not sure about intensity or impacts just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I agree, I've seen storms 48 hours out end up 200 miles from where it looked like they were headed. Looks like we get something from it but way too early to be expecting another Floyd. Even Floyd didn't behave as expected. Alot of people thought it would still be a cat 2 or 3 when it passed our area and that the immediate coast would have hurricane force winds and heavy rain and the coast ended up spared while inland got blasted with a foot of rain. Plenty of time before we seriously can consider this threat. 168 hours out for a hurricane is like tracking a shortwave crossing the Pacific in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If the trough progresses a bit faster to the east or the kicker ejects earlier then this solution could end up just a few hundred more miles to the east and everybody is left high and dry. At this point all options remain viable, but I think a lot of people are jumping on these disaster solutions much too soon. We have watched the track shift substantially east over time even for the areas currently/in the near future that are/will be impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If the trough progresses a bit faster to the east or the kicker ejects earlier then this solution could end up just a few hundred more miles to the east and everybody is left high and dry. At this point all options remain viable, but I think a lot of people are jumping on these disaster solutions much too soon. We have watched the track shift substantially east over time even for the areas currently/in the near future that are/will be impacted. don't think anyone is jumping on one solution yet, just outlining the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z models shifted east again. Wouldn't be surprised if in the end, the east shift continues and Irene ends up OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z models shifted east again. Wouldn't be surprised if in the end, the east shift continues and Irene ends up OTS. only a few have a miss OTS..actually the threat seems to be increasing for a Long Island New England landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z models shifted east again. Wouldn't be surprised if in the end, the east shift continues and Irene ends up OTS. agreed, but way too early to speculate at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Any track inside the benchmark spells real trouble for alot of folks. Something else to consider, Irene is a fairly large cyclone, so the affects will be felt a few hundred miles away from the center. As the storm comes north and weakens, you can also get a bit of unraveling where the strongest winds/convection actually end up 50 miles or more away from the origional center. Still a long way to go on this, but the longer it stays off shore, the stronger the system will likely be when it passes to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 someone should save those 6z GFS images, doesn't get more classic than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I really hate how this is a seven day forecast still. The one thing that could be mentioned is that the 00z Euro track more or less rides the gulf stream, and that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Joe Bastardi thinks Irene's possible track mirrors Floyd of '99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The actual landfall is 6.5 days away. But we will know well before that, if we will be impacted. By Thursday, 3 days away, we should have a realistic idea of what Irene might do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looking at a comparison from 18Z through the 06Z GFS runs it is evident that that the rigde on the west coast wants to build. The jet stream over the west coast is north of Vancouver, and there is even a 594dm contour on the 06Z GFS over the southwestern US. The PNA is forecast to be positive in this time frame which correlates to a ridge being on the west coast. The strength of the ridge will be the factor into how strong the trough will be, and this will be the factor into whether Irene goes inland from making landfall, skirts the coast, or goes ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's not worth much, but it should be noted that the 6z DGEX shifted west at 06z and now shreads the system and keeps it inland, we got a boat load of rain, but the 18z run had a 988 just off shore. I know its a piece of junk, but its one model that did not shift eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This bad boy has a far greater chance of going wide right then left. We have had a very active flow across the north all summer, kinda hard to imagine this doesnt get booted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 As "cool" as it would be to get a hurricane to come into the metro area w/ a new moon- realistically the chances of this happening is slim to none.. Plus., i can't imagine the extent of the damage that would result.. On the other hand we've had a lot of strange weather occurances over the past few years.. So nothing would surprise me.. It's been 26 years since a full fledged hurricane hit the Tri-state... So we're definitely due... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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