NEG NAO Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 if the 18Z GFS verifies - 5 - 9 inches rain NYC metro - not good. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsp72204.gif The other issue is the flooding along the NJ and LI coast - potential for evacuations there - many more folks there on vacation of course.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 if the 18Z GFS verifies - 5 - 9 inches rain NYC metro - not good. http://raleighwx.ame...8zgfsp72204.gif The other issue is the flooding along the NJ and LI coast - potential for evacuations there - many more folks there on vacation of course.............. Oh my, should be some exciting times tracking this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 if the 18Z GFS verifies - 5 - 9 inches rain NYC metro - not good. http://raleighwx.ame...8zgfsp72204.gif The other issue is the flooding along the NJ and LI coast - potential for evacuations there - many more folks there on vacation of course.............. LC says up to 10 inches is possible in the metro area. Big flooding issues if the models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 LC says up to 10 inches is possible in the metro area. Big flooding issues if the models are correct. link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If we get winds many trees will fall very wet ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 link? Link to all signs pointing to the death of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Its way too early to be talking QPF totals here. Were not even sure its even going to make it past the islands. As we all know if and when Irene gets up here, she will be capable of dropping many inches of rain, and then some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If we get winds many trees will fall very wet ground Oh noes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Its way too early to be talking QPF totals here. Were not even sure its even going to make it past the islands. correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 correct Links plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 LC says up to 10 inches is possible in the metro area. Big flooding issues if the models are correct. LOL not that I'm buying this but if it did ever happen, NYC and the whole area for that matter, would easily be setting new monthly precip records, with everyone over 20" of rain for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Links plz Guess not, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 FWIW (which not be much), the 18z DGEX brings the storm right along the coastline, bringing hurricane conditions to the shorelines of each East Coast state from Florida to Massachusetts, with Georgia being the only exception..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 FWIW (which not be much), the 18z DGEX brings the storm right along the coastline, bringing hurricane conditions to the shorelines of each East Coast state from Florida to Massachusetts, with Georgia being the only exception..... NAM extension attempting to forecast a transitioning tropical system 8 days out FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 FWIW (which not be much), the 18z DGEX brings the storm right along the coastline, bringing hurricane conditions to the shorelines of each East Coast state from Florida to Massachusetts, with Georgia being the only exception..... Is that what Donna did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 east coast slamma?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 east coast slamma?? tracking tropical threats 150 hrs out, reminds me of anthony posting the 312 hr ggem ensembles. only a few months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 tracking tropical threats 150 hrs out, reminds me of anthony posting the 312 hr ggem ensembles. only a few months away. How about the 192 hour dgex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Is that what Donna did? similar track, although Donna looks to have started with more of a westerly component and then shot directly up the coast at a NE heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 NAM extension attempting to forecast a transitioning tropical system 8 days out FTW! It has it's uses. I have seen it be dead on in forecasting heat waves, snowstorms, etc. You just have to know win to call BS as it has a tendency to spit out the occasional wacky solution. Not totally sure on it's tropical system credibility though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just give me a TS warning I'll be happy haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just give me a TS warning I'll be happy haha you are going to get 80mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Is that what Donna did? Donna was actually the only hurricane in recorded history to affect every state along the east coast with hurricane force winds. Rainfall wasn't as excessive along the east coast as it was for Floyd, though, probably because Floyd had a cold front to interact with. It would be tragic if our area gets another significant flooding event after what people around here have been through during Floyd, Tax Day 2007, and March 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just give me a TS warning I'll be happy haha We had one a couple of years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Currently I am thinking, if, we are going to see effects from Irene either in the form of her remnants or as an organized tropical system this could begin to occur as early as next Saturday night. Irene, or her remnants have the potential to be a serious flood threat for the area especially with the already saturated ground from the recent heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 0z GFS has a 993 low in central NY. Way west of 18z. It still brings the area 4+ inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just a tad wet.... I imagine there'd be some erosion problems too if the winds were this strong out of the east for this long as shown by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 0z GFS has a 993 low in central NY. Way west of 18z. It still brings the area 4+ inches of rain. If that's the same as the graphic Jake posted, it has 10 inches of rain right over William's house! And 5+ all over the metro. What kind of winds are we talking about? 50 mph gusts all day Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If that's the same as the graphic Jake posted, it has 10 inches of rain right over William's house! And 5+ all over the metro. What kind of winds are we talking about? 50 mph gusts all day Sunday? Winds should be fairly strong thanks to the large high pressure system to our north. 30-40 mph winds with gusts over 50 mph are certainly possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I hope this doesn't end up being another "Earl" or an inland "Earl" (as opposed to off shore). Just being in the cone was a bit entertaining though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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