Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

TS Irene - potential impacts to the region


SACRUS

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 272
  • Created
  • Last Reply

if the 18Z GFS verifies - 5 - 9 inches rain NYC metro - not good.

http://raleighwx.ame...8zgfsp72204.gif

The other issue is the flooding along the NJ and LI coast - potential for evacuations there - many more folks there on vacation of course..............

LC says up to 10 inches is possible in the metro area. Big flooding issues if the models are correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LC says up to 10 inches is possible in the metro area. Big flooding issues if the models are correct.

LOL not that I'm buying this but if it did ever happen, NYC and the whole area for that matter, would easily be setting new monthly precip records, with everyone over 20" of rain for the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW (which not be much), the 18z DGEX brings the storm right along the coastline, bringing hurricane conditions to the shorelines of each East Coast state from Florida to Massachusetts, with Georgia being the only exception.....

NAM extension attempting to forecast a transitioning tropical system 8 days out FTW! :arrowhead:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW (which not be much), the 18z DGEX brings the storm right along the coastline, bringing hurricane conditions to the shorelines of each East Coast state from Florida to Massachusetts, with Georgia being the only exception.....

Is that what Donna did?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM extension attempting to forecast a transitioning tropical system 8 days out FTW! :arrowhead:

It has it's uses. I have seen it be dead on in forecasting heat waves, snowstorms, etc. You just have to know win to call BS as it has a tendency to spit out the occasional wacky solution.

Not totally sure on it's tropical system credibility though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is that what Donna did?

Donna was actually the only hurricane in recorded history to affect every state along the east coast with hurricane force winds. Rainfall wasn't as excessive along the east coast as it was for Floyd, though, probably because Floyd had a cold front to interact with.

It would be tragic if our area gets another significant flooding event after what people around here have been through during Floyd, Tax Day 2007, and March 2010.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently I am thinking, if, we are going to see effects from Irene either in the form of her remnants or as an organized tropical system this could begin to occur as early as next Saturday night. Irene, or her remnants have the potential to be a serious flood threat for the area especially with the already saturated ground from the recent heavy rains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z GFS has a 993 low in central NY. Way west of 18z. It still brings the area 4+ inches of rain.

If that's the same as the graphic Jake posted, it has 10 inches of rain right over William's house! And 5+ all over the metro.

What kind of winds are we talking about? 50 mph gusts all day Sunday?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If that's the same as the graphic Jake posted, it has 10 inches of rain right over William's house! And 5+ all over the metro.

What kind of winds are we talking about? 50 mph gusts all day Sunday?

Winds should be fairly strong thanks to the large high pressure system to our north. 30-40 mph winds with gusts over 50 mph are certainly possible...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...