earthlight Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 this is a good steering flow for tropical storm impacts in the eastern us after landfall. regardless of the exact track in the carribbean, the storm should turn north and then northeast as it pushes through the break in the mid level ridge and then encounters the troughiness that's been present over the eastern us. it's interesting to see the models fluctuating with the break in the mid level ridge around 25-30 N. this feature is going to become critically important over the next several days. there will likely be island impacts with this system in the next few days..but assuming the gfs position is reasonably correct..the storm is headed northwest towards the far east/southeast gulf and eventually near florida..before turning north and then northeast over the conus. still a whole lot of time with this one...and plenty of questions still left to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If the track were to be about 75 miles further East that would be similar to David in 1979.That was a very windy TS up here as winds reached near 70MPH in places.It was the second best tropical system Windwise I have experienced here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well tonights 0z GFS has Irene striking Miami and heading up the east coast, we get drenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well tonights 0z GFS has Irene striking Miami and heading up the east coast, we get drenched. there is fairly good consistency now on the GFS with a track very close to our region. On some runs we have gotten over 10". Even so wouldn't be suprised to see the track shift westward again, and some runs keep the system over land for a very long time before it gets to us. If it manages to miss FL and makes landfall in the Carolinas the affects would be much greater. Today's 12z EC slams a 968 into GA and the system gets hung up over GA for about 48 hours before passing to our south at 1006, which would be basically be very little for us I would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well tonights 0z GFS has Irene striking Miami and heading up the east coast, we get drenched. What I don't understand is why on seemingly every run of the GFS the storm has a convective blow up at hr 192. I'm not sure if it's a coincidence that this is the last frame prior to truncation or what. Maybe a met could explain what's going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The Euro seems to have hit GA, so most likely will give the Northeastern corridor lots of rain according to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 ^^^^^ the Euro run looked good in the beginning bringing Irene east of FL but moves through GA and doesn't really recurve until it's well inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 ^^^^^ the Euro run looked good in the beginning bringing Irene east of FL but moves through GA and doesn't really recurve until it's well inland... Oh ok cool, didn't finish seeing the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 0Z and 6Z GFS trending east - staying offshore of FLA and landfall north GA coastline and then riding up the coastal plain to New England. This has the potential to be a serious flooding threat both inland and along the coast later next weekend into Monday 8/29 to Tuesday 8/30 around NYC Metro considering all the heavy rain we have had the last 2 weeks. Also have to research monthly rainfall records being broken in the area for August and all time if this verifies ................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like all 12z models, except UKIE, shifted east and consensus is growing for an east coast threat from Irene. Euro coming up, will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The GGEM has a 971mb low on the coast of LI. whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12z euro brings a cat 3 into sc coast.....hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wow, the Euro brings a monster into S.C. It should be interesting to see what happens in future frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro has a 987 low on top of SNE at 192 hours http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro has a 987 low on top of SNE at 192 hours http://raleighwx.ame...bVortSLP192.gif storm slams NC/SC and then basically curves up RIGHT along the coastline...interesting track if it were to verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Biggest threat from Irene, by far, would be the flood potential in our area. In the last two weeks parts of NJ and NYC have been running 400%+ of normal. If we received a deluge from a tropical system it would certainly break records for August precipitation and would be a huge flood threat which will need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 once Irene reaches the Carolinas, the track and intensity are quite similar to Floyd, at least per EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 New moon is next monday, fyi.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Biggest threat from Irene, by far, would be the flood potential in our area. In the last two weeks parts of NJ and NYC have been running 400%+ of normal. If we received a deluge from a tropical system it would certainly break records for August precipitation and would be a huge flood threat which will need to be watched. Im not really sure where or to who to even ask thisquestion....lol. But maybe you jake could point me in the right direction if youve ever heard about this. Do water companies employ mets, similar to energy met types? I mean, do they start thinking about maybe evacuating some water out of our reservoirs a few days before something like this? All my years dealing with these issues as a fireman, i never really thought to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 once Irene reaches the Carolinas, the track and intensity are quite similar to Floyd, at least per EC You took the words right out of my mouth. The track looks just like Floyd on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Im not really sure where or to who to even ask thisquestion....lol. But maybe you jake could point me in the right direction if youve ever heard about this. Do water companies employ mets, similar to energy met types? I mean, do they start thinking about maybe evacuating some water out of our reservoirs a few days before something like this? All my years dealing with these issues as a fireman, i never really thought to ask. Hm, that's a good question. I haven't a clue for an answer though, sorry. Obviously reservoir levels depend very highly on precipitation amounts but afaik a lot of that stuff goes the drought route (not sure about the opposite problem?) through the DEP and probably NWS. #assuming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12z Euro off of FL, what a beast. Perfect HP to the north, this will produce major, major rains it seems over a large area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This thing is looking more and more like Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This thing is looking more and more like Floyd. Read a couple of my posts from a few pages back... the current model output does not look like Floyd per the GFS and the ECWMF. http://www.americanw...post__p__897656 http://www.americanw...post__p__897560 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 fwiw 132 hr out.....18z gfs brings a powerful cane into the sc/ga boarder..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18Z GFS indicating an overrunning boundary out ahead of Irene next weekend which could exacerbate rainfall before the cyclone reaches our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Major flooding event if this verifies. :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If you are NW of Irene = Excessive, flooding rainfall. If you are SW of Irene = Stronger winds, greater chance of tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Biggest threat from Irene, by far, would be the flood potential in our area. In the last two weeks parts of NJ and NYC have been running 400%+ of normal. If we received a deluge from a tropical system it would certainly break records for August precipitation and would be a huge flood threat which will need to be watched. Very true depending on how things pan out could be looking at a floyd/tax day noreaster scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 we all better pray that this does not lead to a Floyd scenerio, something needs to make this recurve out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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