Chicago WX Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 SPC has issued a MD from SE MI through C IL per their graphics but no text thus far. Look at you getting all involved in severe weather talk. 91/75 here. Hoping we're far enough "south" here to get in on the eventual line of storms. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 SPC has issued a MD from SE MI through C IL per their graphics but no text thus far. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN IL...NRN IN...SRN MI...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 242046Z - 242215Z AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM CNTRL IL NEWD INTO SERN MI. AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WW BETWEEN 22-00Z. AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL...AND WILL OVERSPREAD A SFC COLD FRONT /ANALYZED AT 20Z FROM 15 NW GRR TO 30 SW RFD TO 25 SW BRL/ WITH INCREASING COUPLED FORCED ASCENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CU FORMING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH OVER CNTRL IL AND NWRN IN...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES 4000-4500 J/KG/ AND WEAKLY INHIBITED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY FAVOR DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES INITIALLY...WITH SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE /GIVEN SIGNIFICANT PARALLEL COMPONENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTOR TO THE COLD FRONT/ AND EVOLVE INTO A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..ROGERS.. 08/24/2011 I do like the explosive development part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Interesting that the SPC decided to leave the thumb out of the MD, even though this is where the RUC and HRRR have been showing most of the convection starting in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Look at you getting all involved in severe weather talk. Just loosening up for the wonderful winter ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Welcome! And the reaction you mentioned in the bold part is hilarious and typical. Hey SSC, didn't expect you for a couple months. This stuff today probably will be similar to last winter. Lots of hype followed by disappointment. A Tornado watch for all of southern Ontario? Hmmm....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hey SSC, didn't expect you for a couple months. This stuff today probably will be similar to last winter. Lots of hype followed by disappointment. A Tornado watch for all of southern Ontario? Hmmm....... Tornadoes in our neck of the woods are never going to be widespread, even in "perfect" setup like this, so the likelihood is that we won't be affected by one. So long as we get some decent straight-line winds I won't be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not that it matters but a tornado watch or severe tstorm watch will likely be issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That MD is just east of me. Looks like we are missing another chance of rain. Nice Cumulus field building overhead though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 2 tornado warnings in S Ontario now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That cell northwest of Sarnia is a beast. Sarnia - Petrolia - Western Lambton County6:11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 24 AUGUST 2011 TORNADO WARNING FOR Sarnia - Petrolia - Western Lambton County CONTINUED Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements. Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Tornado warnings on both sides of the border for that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Didn't expect this much of SEMI to be in a watch at all... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 600 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LAKE ERIE LAKE HURON EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 600 PM UNTIL 100 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF OSCODA MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 801... DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CNTRL WI. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD...WITH 40 KT WSW 850 MB FLOW VEERING TO 50-60 KT WNW FLOW AT 500 MB...WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG / SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN ERN PART OF WW...ENTIRE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY STORM SPLITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND BOWS WITH DMGG WIND. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29045. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cell north of Goderich is looking excellent. Edit: Definite hook echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's going to be one of those days of blanket warnings, isn't it WWCN11 CWTO 242226 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:26 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 24 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE APPROACHING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Still early but looking like most of the action will stay north of 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Still early but looking like most of the action will stay north of 96. nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:36 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 24 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= STRATHROY - KOMOKA - WESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY =NEW= LONDON - PARKHILL - EASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE APPROACHING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO IS HEADING TOWARD THE TEESWATER AND MILDMAY AREAS. ANOTHER IS HEADING TOWARD THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE NEAR THE KETTLE POINT AND GRAND BEND AREAS AS WELL AS THE PINERY AND IPPERWASH PROVINCIAL PARKS AS WELL AS THE PARKHILL AREA. THE CITY LONDON IS NOT CURRENTLY UNDER THE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF A TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:36 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 24 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= STRATHROY - KOMOKA - WESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY =NEW= LONDON - PARKHILL - EASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE APPROACHING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO IS HEADING TOWARD THE TEESWATER AND MILDMAY AREAS. ANOTHER IS HEADING TOWARD THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE NEAR THE KETTLE POINT AND GRAND BEND AREAS AS WELL AS THE PINERY AND IPPERWASH PROVINCIAL PARKS AS WELL AS THE PARKHILL AREA. THE CITY LONDON IS NOT CURRENTLY UNDER THE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF A TORNADO. These warnings are ridiculous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah, EC is not taking ANY risks, issuing them an hour in advance. I guess they're just trying to get people to take extra precaution after the Goderich fiasco. London is 100 km away from that cell over Lake Huron and they're issuing a Tornado Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What the hell is going on down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just a beast of a cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if that storm has a waterspout right now. Also wouldn't be shocked if it did some damage before moving out into the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 nope Nope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if that storm has a waterspout right now. Also wouldn't be shocked if it did some damage before moving out into the lake. I hope no one got caught out in that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The county west of me just added to the tornado warning. SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:50 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 24 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY =NEW= LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY STRATHROY - KOMOKA - WESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY LONDON - PARKHILL - EASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE APPROACHING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO IS HEADING TOWARD THE TEESWATER AND MILDMAY AREAS. ANOTHER IS HEADING TOWARD THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE NEAR THE KETTLE POINT AND GRAND BEND AREAS AS WELL AS THE PINERY AND IPPERWASH PROVINCIAL PARKS AS WELL AS THE PARKHILL AREA. ANOTHER IS HEADING TOWARD THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE BETWEEN ST JOSEPH AND BAYFIELD. THE CITY LONDON IS NOT CURRENTLY UNDER THE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF A TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That supercell approaching Grand Bend has the most intense rotation I've seen in this area in all my years of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Very likely a waterspout, perhaps a large one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 thats a whole bunch of bad headed across the lake right now. Waiting to see if the front or pre frontal will spark off anything else of sig. Storms trying to go west of oscoda/alma line but not looking too impressive yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The Lambton Shores Municipality is in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ut oh, cells rapidly developing West of Ann Arbor, if that first cell was any indicator this cell will explode especially in this environment we are currently in. Still 89/74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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