wisconsinwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 We've already had an apparent tornado and the window probably isn't closed yet. I like seeing the high probs on multiple runs but it's never a substitute for looking at each ingredient and the overall setup. That is true, and there might be one heading into Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 SPC did a really good job today on honing in on the biggest risk area (C Wisconsin). Unfortunately, the models didn't help one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 As expected... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Got a quick glimpse at small line firing vicinity Lake Geneva. Will keep an eye on it. Long dark base across northern horizon and backlit underneath by sunset. Might be something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 what a waste... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thank the morning storms for the "waste"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Shriek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Shriek! Jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FWIW the RUC doesn't show things firing up until the front has passed through SEMI....but it has a pretty impressive line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sure was a surprise to see morning MCS activity screw things up for northern Illinois/eastern Iowa/southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sure was a surprise to see morning MCS activity screw things up for northern Illinois/eastern Iowa/southern Wisconsin. better then nothing lol but hey were used to it by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Woah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Woah! Prepare for an overwhelmed Environment Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Prepare for an overwhelmed Environment Canada. Just think of all the Red Alerts, I hope EMO's windows 95 can keep up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2011 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL OREGON... ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A LEAD...MORE COMPACT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TODAY. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE AMPLIFYING MANITOBA TROUGH WILL SPREAD E/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS...WHILE THE WRN EXTENT MOVES SWD FROM KS INTO OK. IN THE WEST...A CLOSED LOW/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING NWD ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY...BUT DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND...A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS OREGON. ...LOWER MI/LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY... A WSWLY LLJ ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN SPREADING MOISTURE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS DAY 1 FORECAST PERIOD. A CONTINUATION OF WSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVECTION OF A HIGH THETAE AIR MASS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER KM/ WILL ADVANCE EWD ATOP THE MOISTURE CORRIDOR. THESE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH DIABATIC WARMING IN THE WAKE OF ANY ONGOING STORMS EXPECTED TO BE OVER LOWER MI/NRN OH AT 12Z TODAY AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER LOWER MI TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL OH TO MO. HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE CAPPED WITH SWWD EXTENT INTO IND/IL...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THESE AREAS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES ESEWD AIDING IN WEAKENING OF THE INHIBITION. STRENGTHENING OF VERTICALLY VEERING WIND FIELDS AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST STORM MODE SHOULD INITIALLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI INTO NERN IND AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE AXIS OF THE WSWLY LLJ. DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THE STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR SQUALL LINE AS TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FULL EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS. THIS SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. GREATEST 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS /30-60 METERS PER 12 HR/ ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THESE FALLS...SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-45 KT FROM SRN IND/OH INTO WRN PA...AND UP TO 50 KT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/NRN NY. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE OH VALLEY AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS FROM SRN IND ACROSS MUCH OF OH AND NRN KY. ...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL OREGON... MODELS SUGGEST THE AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ORE...SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INLAND WITH THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM W-E LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT...A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION. ...SWRN MO/NRN AR/SERN KS INTO OK... A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION BY PEAK HEATING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WRN EXTENT OF HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5-1.7 INCH. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. UNCERTAINTY IN STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES AN INCLUSION OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS/SMITH.. 08/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Somewhat confused by the SREF sigtors. Last three runs have indicated 20-40% sigtors over southern Ontario today, yet the SPC only has a 5% tornado for the SEMI area. Without accurate Canadian centered outlets to receive advanced severe weather outlooks, what is going on with these parameters? Is the SREF over-performing this potential? It's not every day you see sig tors at 40% on the SREF in this area. Any thoughts? Is there maybe an area of the latest SPC outlook that is out of the US gov'ts reach to forecast for? (sorry for the IMBY question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pretty darn intense tornado in Clark County, WI. Looks like we might keep our streak of 2011 months with EF3+ tornadoes (every single month except August thus far) alive. http://www.wxow.com/story/15320645/reported-tornado-touchdown-in-clark-county-home-leveled-in-spencer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looking like the storms will go linear fairly quickly late afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Another close call here for se mi. Suns out and its fairly windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Eh call me pessimistic but I'm not going to get overly excited about severe wx in SEMI today. The RUC continues to show things not firing up until to late and the HRRR seems to be on board as well now. Not to mention scenarios where we've been capped all day haven't worked out so well this season so far... I am really liking to looks of southern Ontario though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Eh call me pessimistic but I'm not going to get overly excited about severe wx in SEMI today. The RUC continues to show things not firing up until to late and the HRRR seems to be on board as well now. Not to mention scenarios where we've been capped all day haven't worked out so well this season so far... I am really liking to looks of southern Ontario though... Interesting that GRR even has the possibility of severe weather just east of grand rapids. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 696 WWCN11 CWTO 241454 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10:54 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 24 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WATCH FOR: =NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX COUNTY - CITY OF CHATHAM-KENT =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON COUNTY =NEW= ELGIN COUNTY =NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX COUNTY =NEW= HURON COUNTY - PERTH COUNTY =NEW= WATERLOO REGION - WELLINGTON COUNTY =NEW= DUFFERIN COUNTY - INNISFIL =NEW= GREY COUNTY - BRUCE COUNTY =NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND =NEW= PARRY SOUND DISTRICT - MUSKOKA REGION =NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET. RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED BULLETINS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REACH AREAS NEAR LAKE HURON NEAR MID AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. END/OSPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 When do updates to day 1 by SPC occur? Or do they only occur once a day in the morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 When do updates to day 1 by SPC occur? Or do they only occur once a day in the morning? 1230pm EDT is the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Eh call me pessimistic but I'm not going to get overly excited about severe wx in SEMI today. The RUC continues to show things not firing up until to late and the HRRR seems to be on board as well now. Not to mention scenarios where we've been capped all day haven't worked out so well this season so far... I am really liking to looks of southern Ontario though... It's going to be very close, I think it fires almost right on top of us, which could be bad as this will initially be supercells evolving into a squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 696 WWCN11 CWTO 241454 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10:54 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 24 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WATCH FOR: =NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX COUNTY - CITY OF CHATHAM-KENT =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON COUNTY =NEW= ELGIN COUNTY =NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX COUNTY =NEW= HURON COUNTY - PERTH COUNTY =NEW= WATERLOO REGION - WELLINGTON COUNTY =NEW= DUFFERIN COUNTY - INNISFIL =NEW= GREY COUNTY - BRUCE COUNTY =NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND =NEW= PARRY SOUND DISTRICT - MUSKOKA REGION =NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET. RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED BULLETINS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REACH AREAS NEAR LAKE HURON NEAR MID AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. END/OSPC Wow they "blew their whistle" early....heck up here we don't even issue TORNADO WARNINGS even when pilots call them (picture posted) in as I posted in the Alaska discussion. I would figure that ENVIRONMENT CANADA would have waited to 3pm. I think SPC will issue a meso 1:45 to 3:30pm for Michigan....NE Indiana....and NW Ohio and should issue a TORNADO WATCH for that area by 4:40 to 5:15pm........let's see how good my "guess" is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Latest HRRR trending in the right direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like the 30% wind/hail probs were expanded back into SEMI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow they "blew their whistle" early....heck up here we don't even issue TORNADO WARNINGS even when pilots call them (picture posted) in as I posted in the Alaska discussion. I would figure that ENVIRONMENT CANADA would have waited to 3pm. I think SPC will issue a meso 1:45 to 3:30pm for Michigan....NE Indiana....and NW Ohio and should issue a TORNADO WATCH for that area by 4:40 to 5:15pm........let's see how good my "guess" is. I think they are being cautious since the Goderich tornado. But, it's not the first time EC has pulled a tornado watch real early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2011 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... ..GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND LOSING AMPLITUDE...WHILE A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE OVER WI/UPPER MI PROGRESSES SEWD TOWARD LOWER MI BY EARLY TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE MOVE SEWD TO NRN MO/NRN IL/NW INDIANA/SE LOWER MI BY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ IS SPREADING NEWD FROM WI/IL/INDIANA TO LOWER MI IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH THE EWD EXPANSION OF A STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS MO/IL/WI. THE INCREASING MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT PRE-FRONTAL MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SE LOWER MI TO CENTRAL IL. EARLIER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS NRN LOWER MI IN THE ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO RISK MAY BE GREATER INTO SW ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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