cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 0-1km helicity values now up to 500 m2/s2 around DVN. Yeah and quickly growing more unstable as well. Mixed-layer cape over 3000j/kg over much of central into northeast Iowa now. Full sun still cooking over eastern Iowa. Those clouds from western Iowa may become an issue a bit later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Full sun at I90/Rt. 59. Small patchy low clouds cruising out of ssw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 First warning is out for that NW Wisconsin cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yet another nice storm here on the northside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some real heat building southwest of the warm front. 97 at Fairfield Iowa, 95 at Keokuk, and 97 at Quincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some real heat building southwest of the warm front. 97 at Fairfield Iowa, 95 at Keokuk, and 97 at Quincy. Mid 60s at best here with heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 DTX's update for tomorrow THE BIG THING, WHICH WAS DOCUMENTED THOROUGHLY IN THE EARLY MORNINGFORECAST PACKAGE, IS THE INCREASE IN THE MODEL WIND FIELD AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS HAS CARRIED OVER INTO THE 12Z FORECAST CYCLE ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SPORT 0-1KM MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON VS 1500 COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS DATA. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EML MIGRATING INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLY GREATER SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE WIND PROFILE, DUE TO EXTRA DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO, WITH 0-3KM HELICITY RANGING FROM 250-300 M2/S2 COMPARED TO VALUES CLOSER TO 150 YESTERDAY. THE DATA IN YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS DEPICTED A SCENARIO SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES, BUT THE NUMBERS THAT HAVE PERSISTED INTO TODAY`S MODEL DATA INTRODUCE AN EXTRA LAYER OF POTENTIAL THAT INCLUDES SUPERCELL MODES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE IDENTIFYING THE TIMING AND LOCATION FOR STORM INITIATION. THIS IS COMPLICATED BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HEELS OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY AND STRENGTHENED BY THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, PREFER TO EXPECT THE CAP TO HOLD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/AROUND 21Z. AFTER THAT, SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. BY THEN, HOWEVER, THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP RIGHT OVER SE MICHIGAN BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY MID EVENING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO EARLIER EXPECTATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SPARING US THE MORE MATURE ASPECTS OF SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The storm just east/southeast of Eau Claire looks interesting; appears it has just developed a hook or notch of some sort. Anyone want to take a look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 232156Z - 232330Z LONG LIVED WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORT IS DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NRN WI AT ROUGHLY 35KT. WHILE WEAK CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE MOST OF THE DAY...A RENEWED BAND OF TSTMS HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FROM LINCOLN COUNTY TO CLARK COUNTY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS POST MCS AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN WI IS SHROUDED IN STRATUS. EVEN SO...STRONG...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED UPDRAFTS SHOULD PRODUCE HAIL AT/ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT THIS DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH WRN SHORE OF LAKE MI BETWEEN 00-01Z. ..DARROW.. 08/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 RUC shows a big push of instability eastward into this area between 0-3z with LOTS of low-level shear. No hint of convection yet on vis so this all could go to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Interesting what DTX mentioned about things firing up right over SEMI tomorrow. So while things might not be as widespread as a squall line moving through, the tornado threat will probably be enhanced when things are more discrete. Let's just hope the CAP works with us this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 with one of the storms in central WI..100kt g2g at 5000ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Tor watch and first tor warning of the day issued. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 520 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN WOOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 545 PM CDT * AT 517 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF MARSHFIELD...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF WISCONSIN RAPIDS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PITTSVILLE...LINDSEY...BAKERVILLE...BETHEL...ARPIN...VESPER AND DEXTERVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The cell I was looking at just went tornadic, but the tornado is on the west side of the cell, whereas I saw the hook more toward the east side, as it seemed to disappear shortly after. Now a tornado watch out one county to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 520 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WISCONSIN LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 520 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES EAST OF MANITOWOC WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL WI. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL INVOLVE THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND EXTENT OF REMAINING CAP. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Tornado Watch... so much for the storms avoiding MKE north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Tornado Watch... so much for the storms avoiding MKE north. They still might, but I think we'll catch something, if not at least some showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Interesting what DTX mentioned about things firing up right over SEMI tomorrow. So while things might not be as widespread as a squall line moving through, the tornado threat will probably be enhanced when things are more discrete. Let's just hope the CAP works with us this time... Maybe things will slow down a bit. Pessimistic that things will get going just to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Tornadic storm in C Wisconsin just fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 RUC shows a big push of instability eastward into this area between 0-3z with LOTS of low-level shear. No hint of convection yet on vis so this all could go to waste. I doubt it will go to waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Meanwhile to the west: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 547 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN... EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 544 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 95 AND 73...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEILLSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS TORNADO WARNING UPGRADES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLARK AND JACKSON COUNTIES. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BALLARD ROAD AND PRAY AVENUE AROUND 555 PM... PRAY AROUND 605 PM... POTTERS FLOWAGE AROUND 610 PM... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! CARS AND MOBILE HOMES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LAY FLAT IN A DITCH AND COVER YOUR HEAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I doubt it will go to waste I'm trying to figure out where new convection is going to pop, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 000 NWUS53 KARX 232302 LSRARX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 602 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0530 PM TORNADO CHILI 44.63N 90.35W 08/23/2011 CLARK WI EMERGENCY MNGR HOUSE OFF FOUNDATION...POWER LINES DOWN...ROOFS OFF HOUSES...AND BARNS DESTROYED && $$ DAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 rather hardcore report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What's this then? I'm in the 20% lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What's this then? I'm in the 20% lol I was in the 50% on the 15z today and it looks like I won't even get any storms as they start to weaken, to illustrate how the SREFs can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm trying to figure out if and where new convection is going to pop, we'll see. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I was in the 50% on the 15z today and it looks like I won't even get any storms as they start to weaken, to illustrate how the SREFs can go wrong. We've already had an apparent tornado and the window probably isn't closed yet. I like seeing the high probs on multiple runs but it's never a substitute for looking at each ingredient and the overall setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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