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August 22-31 Severe Weather Thread


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New day 2

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Not sure what to think...the 15/15/2 marginal looking days for SEMI kinda have been turning out the best this season :lol:

I actually like this potential for tomorrow greatly, we will cook all day and the timer will pop across Central Michigan around 5-6pm and race eastward, this could be one of our best potentials of the year thus far.

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Kind of wondering what's gonna happen with that activity in northeast Nebraska, and now entering western Iowa. That activity is beneath a 60kt H3 wind maximum, and is moving into increasingly more favorable conditions. Sure doesn't look like it wants to dissipate anytime soon. Wouldn't be surprised to see that area flare up when it reaches central Iowa a bit later. Some pretty impressive parameters already in place in central Iowa. SPC mentioned central Iowa was more of a conditional threat, but with that activity moving into western Iowa, I think things look more interesting in that area. If that area takes off it could grow upscale and impact areas further east into Illinois eventually. Just another possible scenario that could play out later today.

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As soon as the sun came out here the southerly winds quickly picked up and became quite gusty. Don't think it will take all that long to mix this cooler air out. Certainly not as long as it takes sometimes.

nice, little update from LOT, they sound bullish.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ACROSS FAR

SOUTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST EAST OF THE ST LOUIS AREA. AN

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE OVER THE

NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF A

LEAD SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE

LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN

TO REDEVELOP ACROSS IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE

SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE INCREASES. THESE

STORMS WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING

THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET CREATES SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE

MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE

WITH THESE STORMS. THE BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM AROUND 01 TO

04 UTC THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE WINDS WILL

ALSO BE GUSTY AROUND 25 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

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Sun is out now, and we're finally into the 70s. My thinking is storms will develop to the NW or W of us, skirt us to our SW or hit us directly, and proceed to turn into more of a linear MCS or something and affect Chicago. Unfortunately, this guess is based mostly on my impression of poorly initialized models, so it shouldn't be taken very seriously.

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Sun is out now, and we're finally into the 70s. My thinking is storms will develop to the NW or W of us, skirt us to our SW or hit us directly, and proceed to turn into more of a linear MCS or something and affect Chicago. Unfortunately, this guess is based mostly on my impression of poorly initialized models, so it shouldn't be taken very seriously.

Some decent thunderstorms already increasing over northwest Wisconsin. Those will likely only increase and intensify over the next several hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see an MD out for much of Wisconsin soon for this reason.

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Some decent thunderstorms already increasing over northwest Wisconsin. Those will likely only increase and intensify over the next several hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see an MD out for much of Wisconsin soon for this reason.

agree, going to be some nice action up there in the north country with probably some sort of "screw zone" in between.

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Some decent thunderstorms already increasing over northwest Wisconsin. Those will likely only increase and intensify over the next several hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see an MD out for much of Wisconsin soon for this reason.

I was just going to ask whether the environment ahead of the small cluster of storms in NW Wisconsin was like. Seemed unstable enough to allow it to intensify a bit.

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Funny, we took a hit in the rain department with the morning MCS just to likely get dry slotted....the severe equivalent of the dry slot.

Edit: I might have spoken too soon, after seeing the latest HRRR, which correctly picked up the activity in NW Wisconsin, still bring that activity through here a little after 0z. Also, the most recent SPC update puts C Wisconsin in the greatest likelihood of severe.

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We also have a cap up here per the AFD. Who would've thought late August in the Upper Midwest would yield major capping issues.

the only area with major capping issues is W. Iowa where it probably won't break. The cap further east will erode.

LOT

UPSTREAM ACROSS IOWA THE ENVIRONMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS

CAPPED...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE

AROUND 21-22Z. LLVL JET FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE PEGGED AT

40KTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BULK

SHEAR VECTORS IN THE 0-1KM INDICATE A POTENT 40-50KT FROM THE

SOUTHWEST...THEN TURNING W/NW IN THE 1-3KM OVERNIGHT. 500MB VORT

CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS

EVENING...AND SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES AFTER 00Z. THUS

EXPECT INSTABILITY TO CREEP BACK INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN PRIOR

TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH. MCS SHOULD STEADILY PUSH EAST FROM

NORTHERN IOWA INTO WISCONSIN. WHILE A SOLID LIFT MECHANISM WILL BE

PRESENT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO SEEING A FEW

UPDRAFTS ROTATE GIVEN THE TURNING IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT. THUS IT

CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STILL FEEL THE BEST

THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL BE HYDRO

CONCERNS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST

SREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT PWAT ANOMS ON THE ORDER OF 3 SIGMA

AND 850MB MFLUX AT 4-5 SIGMA OVER OUR CWFA. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT FIT

THE CONVENTIONAL SENSE OF A HYDRO EVENT...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AS

SOME STORMS MAY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. CONFIDENCE

IS LOW-MEDIUM THAT OUR CWFA WILL BE THE TRAINING GROUND FOR NEW AND

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND NOT

EXPECTING STORMS TO REMAIN STATIONARY. THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND JUST HANDLE THIS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED

IN THE GRIDS...BEEFED UP HWO TO TALK ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

AGAIN THE WINDOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR IN THE 00-09Z

TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY ENDING PRIOR TO 06Z.

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