wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Porn maps perhaps, but I guess it illustrates the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It should be clearing from Madison to Milwaukee northward sooner, so I think those areas might be able to reach a better potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 shelf cloud pics from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nice pics Tsnow! Love the stacked striations. One thing we have going for us is a pretty strong low-level jet which could help quite a bit in advecting warm/humid air back in a little quicker than normal this afternoon. It may be close, but if we can get a decent period of insolation that could do wonders for this setup later today. The next outlook update should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 shelf cloud pics from earlier Nice pics. I'm in Kankakee right now, looks sorta similar here in the west horizon with this weakening line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 surprisingly efficient rain production with this dying complex. The wet summer rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This stuff is about to clear out. Some rain showers in SW Wisconsin, might miss us to the south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I still like the IA/WI/IL border area as I did yesterday, maybe a little south with a prime zone from Dubuque southeast towards Lasalle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This setup could go either way imo. There are always exceptions but this is usually about the time when you want to see things starting to clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 pretty scary images if we get these juxtaposed with eachother and a window for a discrete storm or two. And the low level shear only increases in northeast IL after 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This setup could go either way imo. There are always exceptions but this is usually about the time when you want to see things starting to clear out. I think the window is pretty much closed between MKE/ORD, still think places further southwest are in play, including Cyclone's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This setup could go either way imo. There are always exceptions but this is usually about the time when you want to see things starting to clear out. Yeah, it's only 65 here as we approach noon lol. As I mentioned earlier though, the strong low-level wind fields may help bring back in much warmer/unstable air later on this afternoon. Guess we'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This setup could go either way imo. There are always exceptions but this is usually about the time when you want to see things starting to clear out. This is a tough call. parts of central/southern IA already up into the mid-upper 80s with dew points in the low 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is a tough call. parts of central/southern IA already up into the mid-upper 80s with dew points in the low 70's that juice shouldn't have a hard time pushing into Northeast IA and western Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Already some cumulus festering in the warm sector west of the outflow/warm front over north-central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 FWIW...12z 4km WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 LOT has added heavy rain wording it appears CWA wide. EDIT: and wow at those big boy border cells on the 12 4km wrf, how was the initiation? EDIT x2: the answer - terribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 LOT has added heavy rain wording it appears CWA wide. EDIT: and wow at those big boy border cells on the 12 4km wrf, how was the initiation? EDIT x2: the answer - terribly. ya horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think the window is pretty much closed between MKE/ORD, still think places further southwest are in play, including Cyclone's area. I think you spoke too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think you spoke too soon. nah current day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nah Even if the 4KM WRF initialized poorly, it's not the only model showing action b/w ORD and MKE. If we can get these pesky clouds to break, there is still time until the vital features arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 clearing line through DBQ-DVN-MUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nah current day 1 Since when are tornadoes the only form of severe weather? It's a bit north of where you delineated anyway. I guess we'll just have to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Even if the 4KM WRF initialized poorly, it's not the only model showing action b/w ORD and MKE. If we can get these pesky clouds to break, there is still time until the vital features arrive. It's possible but I personally think chances for widespread severe weather this far east are slim, storms sure. As was mentioned earlier, you're arleady seeing CU get going west across Iowa, i'm banking on things taking off to our west and eventually sliding south before any real instability builds in here. I'm open to being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nice to see the clearing in the expected source/generation area. I think the main uncertainty is how fast the airmass recovers downstream in N IL/S WI etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's possible but I personally think chances for widespread severe weather this far east are slim, storms sure. As was mentioned earlier, you're arleady seeing CU get going west across Iowa, i'm banking on things taking off to our west and eventually sliding south before any real instability builds in here. I'm open to being wrong. Ya im banking on stuff to fire say northeast of DSM to north and east of DBQ and pushing SSE along the instability gradient. I'm sure we'll see storms here later tonight but the best svr threat will be west of I-39 to cyclone country IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Tues could be the first chase since 6/21, though it will highly depend on how morning MCS activity progresses. We'll see how things go... Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 clearing line through DBQ-DVN-MUT. Pretty impressive contrast in conditions either side of the outflow/warm front over Iowa. Still in the mid 60s near DVN, but upper 80s just west of Iowa City. Dews are hovering in the lower 70s there as well. With all the rain this morning, even higher dews are possible once the warm front/outflow boundary retreats northeastward. Southeast Minnesota down into northeast Iowa look pretty decent later today. With that rockin' LLJ pointing at Chicago later today and this evening, they will eventually destabilize, but to what degree that remains to be seen. Looks like SPC has a pretty good handle on things based on their new outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Since when are tornadoes the only form of severe weather? It's a bit north of where you delineated anyway. I guess we'll just have to find out. Is there really much to guess how this ends again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Pretty impressive contrast in conditions either side of the outflow/warm front over Iowa. Still in the mid 60s near DVN, but upper 80s just west of Iowa City. Dews are hovering in the lower 70s there as well. With all the rain this morning, even higher dews are possible once the warm front/outflow boundary retreats northeastward. Southeast Minnesota down into northeast Iowa look pretty decent later today. With that rockin' LLJ pointing at Chicago later today and this evening, they will eventually destabilize, but to what degree that remains to be seen. Looks like SPC has a pretty good handle on things based on their new outlook. The RUC really destabilizes us by 0z so we'll see, the clearing line is moving at a decent speed. The NAM also gives us a decent amount of instability later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.