wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's the RUC/GFS vs the NAM regarding amount of instability here tomorrow afternoon and evening with the NAM being alot less bullish. Interesting, the NAM seemed pretty bullish last night. Has its instability decreased, or are the RUC/GFS more impressive with instability than the NAM was even last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Great post! Very descriptive. I'll be sure to watch THAT area. Sorry, one line was in E Wisconsin and one from SW Wisconsin into C Illinois. Should I paste the image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 0z NAM showing a MCS riding SSE down the edge of the EML/instability gradient tomorrow evening. Also has slowed the front down during the day weds and doesn't bring it through here till around 0z in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The 0z NAM seems to bring the instability in sooner, though, looking at Craven's SigSevere and STP. At 0z Wed, both parameters are pretty high even stretching to the Lake Michigan shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 0Z NAM shows quite a cap opening tomorrow afternoon/evening, which it did not show yesterday evening... MKX: IF THIS SYSTEM CAN EXIT THE REGION AND GIVE THE AREA A FEW HOURS TOHELP INSTABILITY RECOVER...THERE IS A SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH A CURVED HODOGRAPH. AROUND 1500 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPES EXIST AS WELL...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS SHOULD BE OVERCOME AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT ALSO APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION LINGERING IN THE AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR/LIFT AND BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Also very high wind shear in SC and SW Wisconsin around 0z...0-8 km shear of greater than 50. Although it's not showing much breaking out in E Wisconsin or E Illinois, if something were to break out in S Wisconsin or N Illinois, it would clearly have decent parameters to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Day 2 outlook is out DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LOWER MI...NERN IL NRN IND...NWRN OH... ..SYNOPSIS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IL/MO AND INTO NRN OK BY 00Z. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. ..LOWER MI INTO NERN IL...IND...OH MORNING CONVECTION WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY AS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. SIG HAIL THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE RELATIVELY SHORT HODOGRAPH LENGTH...BUT MODERATELY STRONG MEAN WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT RAPIDLY MOVING STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. 700 MB WINDS WILL APPROACH 50 KT BY EVENING. ..MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS ELEVATED MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MARGINAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY WANES DURING THE LATE MORNING...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE WITH A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE. FORCING WILL BE WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD. ALSO...MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY TO THE NE MAY BACK BUILD SWWD INTO THE REGION...WITH SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 08/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 quite the long and nicely written outlook DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MAINTAINS AN ESEWD TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 24/00Z...AND REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY IN LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY...AND UNDERGO FURTHER DEEPENING/AMPLIFICATION TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING NWRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES EXTENDING EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A NNW-SSE ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS MN...IA...AND MO TODAY REACHING THE MN/WI BORDER TO THE MID MS VALLEY BY MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...A DRY LINE SHIFTING ESEWD SHOULD INTERSECT THE WARM FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL-SERN MN AND EXTEND SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING CANADIAN TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL NEB BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... AT 12Z TODAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING AT LEAST ONE MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF SRN MN/NRN IA AND POTENTIALLY INTO WRN/SWRN WI. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT IN THIS REGION INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS MCS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING...WEAKENING OF THE SWLY LLJ INTO ERN IA/SRN WI SUGGESTS THE MCS MAY UNDERGO AT LEAST TEMPORARY WEAKENING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THIS MCS SHOULD EXTEND WWD THROUGH NRN IL AND THEN NWWD THROUGH NERN IA TO EAST CENTRAL-SERN MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT AND/OR MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE ERN EXTENT OF AN EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /OBSERVED WITH THE NRN PLAINS 23/00Z SOUNDINGS/ SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z TODAY...AND ADVANCE EWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE SPREADING ATOP A QUITE MOIST WARM SECTOR /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5+ INCH/ BUILDING EWD TODAY...ALONG AND W THROUGH S OF THE WARM FRONT AND ANY ONGOING EARLY MORNING MCS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING INVOF AND W-S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 3000-4000 J PER KG/ EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL MN/WRN WI SWD INTO IA AND ADJACENT NWRN-WRN IL. SIMILAR INSTABILITY VALUES WILL ALSO EXTEND SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS OVER WRN IA/ERN NEB SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA INVOF OF A RE-STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO SRN WI ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN EAST CENTRAL-SERN MN INTO ERN IA AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NWRN IL. THIS STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FIRST STORMS...GIVEN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE WARM FRONT/MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERY LARGE HAIL...SOME EXCEEDING 2 INCH IN DIAMETER...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM SERN MN/NERN IA TO SRN WI AND NWRN IL AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ INCREASES THE SIZE OF HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. AFTER DARK...MODELS SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS SPREADING ESEWD TOWARD LOWER MI AND THE MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE SWLY LLJ EXTENDING THROUGH THESE REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH A THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS/SMITH.. 08/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Tues could be the first chase since 6/21, though it will highly depend on how morning MCS activity progresses. We'll see how things go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 had a HP sup embedded in the northwest IA complex awhile ago and actually had 100kt g2g at 4000ft but they didn't put out a tor warning given im sure it was above the boundary layer and a good amount of CIN in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 DTX/GRR both strongly worded AFDs for Wed both mentioning supercells and tornadoes. DTX THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSEEASTWARD TODAY...DIVING SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE DRAMATICALLY WEAKENING. THIS TRAJECTORY IS SUPPORTED BY THE N TO S ORIENTATION OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE FORECASTED DIRECTION OF THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THE REFIRING OF THE VEERED LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN/FAR WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE GATES OF THE CWA ROUGHLY AT/AROUND 2Z THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE VIGOR WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...WITH INSTABILITY RELEGATED TO MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. BY FAR...THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM BOTH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES IN CONVECTION (HIGH FORECASTED VALUES OF OMEGA IN THE WARM CLOUD PORTION OF THE COLUMN/AND PWATS OF 1.9 INCHES) AND POTENTIAL TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. A BIG NEGATIVE GOING FOR TONIGHT WILL BE QUICK STORM MOTION...LIKELY GREATER THAN 40 MPH. NEVERTHELESS...DECIDED IT PRUDENT TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES/POINT AND CLICK. LATENT HEAT BOMB IN THE MIDLEVELS ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BRING A QUIET PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 900-800MB LAYER ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW CAPES TO BUILD SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A THINNING OR EXIT OF HIGH CLOUD/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY HELP THINGS DESTABILIZE. PEERING THROUGH A FEW ANIMATIONS OF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR VARIOUS DATA POINTS SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD TIGHT UNTIL IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE STRONG COLD FRONT. A ROUGH THETA E PLAN VIEW ANALYSIS SUGGESTS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE 850MB RIBBON OF ENHANCED THETA E SLIDES INTO PLACE. THIS SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 75-100 MILES IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS PUTS SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR PRIMARILY 00-06Z THURSDAY. THE WIND PROFILE LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY OMINOUS...35 KNOTS AT 900MB...50 KNOTS AT 700MB AND GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS IN THE 0 TO.5KM LAYER. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SPEEDY SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE LIFE CYCLE...TRANSITIONING TO DYNAMIC BOW ECHO STRUCTURES AS THE CELLS MATURE AND CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS PROLIFERATE. THE NAM PROFILE MAY BE A LITTLE HOT ON THE DEWPOINTS...BUT DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 70 DEGREES F DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR BALANCE EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH DAMAGING WINDGUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. A VERY STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL DRIVE THE REGIONS WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT 23.00Z NWP SUITE HAS COME IN MUCH MUCH DRIER WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL FEATURE THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD PREDOMINATELY REMAIN IN THE 70S. GRR WE EXPECT THE EVENING STORMS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAKWED MORNING AS THE WAVE AND LLJ SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA...PUTTING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WED MORNING. WE EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY WITH SUN EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NRN SECTION OF THE CWFA JUST AFTER 18Z...HOWEVER FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 3-5K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP THE AREA WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND APPROACH 90. SUNSHINE WILL HELP INSTABILITY BUILD QUITE WELL WITH SFC BASED LI/S EXPECTED TO DROP TO -7C OR SO AND ML CAPES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 2K J/KG ACROSS THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE WHERE NO LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT AND WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT FIRE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE CAP BECOMES ERODED BY THE INCOMING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT. BY THIS TIME...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR A LINE ROUGHLY FROM THE NE CORNER OF THE CWFA TO THE SW CORNER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO EXPLODE ONCE THEY GO. WE COULD SEE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP INITIALLY WITH ALL OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS LATER IN THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Great looking line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Red sky at morning, sailor take warning :-) Beautiful sunrise although still very cool this morning among the corn and lowlands on 47 down to Huntley. Time to really put evapotranspiration to work. Let's keep this morning's MCS north of the border while we're at it. I get the feeling the ofb placement will determine a lot later today, as described by SPC, et. al. Chistorm - will be done in Elmhurst and heading back nw by 18z. edit: mcs staying north of the border ain't gonna happen. let's move it on through and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks like a solid line that will be approaching the Southern and Central Great Lakes region. If we can get this to plow through and be over by late morning, we might have a nice two round day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Red sky at morning, sailor take warning :-) Beautiful sunrise although still very cool this morning among the corn and lowlands on 47 down to Huntley. Time to really put evapotranspiration to work. Let's keep this morning's MCS north of the border while we're at it. I get the feeling the ofb placement will determine a lot later today, as described by SPC, et. al. Chistorm - will be done in Elmhurst and heading back nw by 18z. edit: mcs staying north of the border ain't gonna happen. let's move it on through and out. heating was never progged to be all that crazy today as it was and with this large MCS in the vicinity I just don't see anything widespread happening this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks like the timing of the MCS here will be from 9-11 or noon, giving us the afternoon to destabilize if those storms in NC Iowa don't survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 heating was never progged to be all that crazy today as it was and with this large MCS in the vicinity I just don't see anything widespread happening this afternoon. I think the bigger factor in causing the thunderstorm activity this afternoon would not be the cape but the shear and helicity numbers, which should still be relatively high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 still nothing but blue skies to the west, pretty weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Heavy rain here at the moment. With new convection firing back over northeast Iowa I'm not too optimistic about later today. At the least it makes the forecast considerably more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 line really crapping the bed (expectedly) as it encounters stable environment over NE Illinois and we should be feeling the effects of the large debris field and cold pool well into the afternoon. This afternoon is pretty murky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 line really crapping the bed (expectedly) as it encounters stable environment over NE Illinois and we should be feeling the effects of the large debris field and cold pool well into the afternoon. This afternoon is pretty murky. the HRRR has been consisten in big storms firing around 21z in northwest IL and pushing them southeast following the instability but id rather see what things look like around noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 the HRRR has been consisten in big storms firing around 21z in northwest IL and pushing them southeast following the instability but id rather see what things look like around noon. meh, the HRRR looks like clueless junk to me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 line really crapping the bed (expectedly) as it encounters stable environment over NE Illinois and we should be feeling the effects of the large debris field and cold pool well into the afternoon. This afternoon is pretty murky. Can't say I'm surprised either, but is it too much to ask for some rain? Right now I'd settle for a nice moderate to heavy rain for a couple hours, but it looks like even that will be crapping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Both the SREF and the NAM definitely indicate a solid tornado potential in SC and SE Wisconsin. If we clear out, this might be able to occur, but only if we clear out by about noon or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 RUC forecast sounding is pretty sick for northeast Illinois late this afternoon. Pretty damn impressive for late August. Unfortunately instability is a huge question at this point. The dense overcast extends well west of the Mississippi River as we approach 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Both the SREF and the NAM definitely indicate a solid tornado potential in SC and SE Wisconsin. If we clear out, this might be able to occur, but only if we clear out by about noon or so. noon isn't happening, more like 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 noon isn't happening, more like 2-3. I'll settle for 1 or 1:30. Tor potential isn't maxed until 7 or 8 or so anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 noon isn't happening, more like 2-3. This, thunderstorms all the way back nw of DBQ, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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