Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[buckeyefan1]

Major making landfall along the Grand Strand. near Charleston.... I would be very surprised if we see any further deviation outside of this cone, Miami to HAT, take you pick, most likely seems the SVH to ILM corridor.

FYP

EDIT: Being in "the cone" this far out = no rain here While I am not yet sold on the far eastern solutions, at least not until tomorrow evening, experience tells me it is very likely.

[packbacker]

and there is the letter M !

I assume "M" means "Major". I know stupid question, but haven't seen M before that I recall.

[CharlestonNYC]

I assume "M" means "Major". I know stupid question, but haven't seen M before that I recall.

Correct.

[WeatherNC]

and there is the letter M !

Talk about an OEM nightmare, still the tail end of tourist season, and given the trajectory coming in from the S coupled with the "M," small wobbles can change the coastal real estate in question significantly. Imagine tomorrow will be the preparation day for that area, with evac plans going into effect on Weds around noon, at-least that is how I remember it working in FL; 48 hr lead.

[packbacker]

Correct.

We need to start hoping this things curves east, a Cat3 hitting Charleston would be devastating.

[Mencken_Fan]

So, as I expected, this is beginning to look like a miss. There isn't a strong ridge to the west. There *is* a trough. It's *going* to recurve early. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.

Looks more like a feeding frenzy on the Carolina Coast.

And I just know it's coming to get me. We have overhead power lines all over Cape Fear. At 70mph the transformers will be blowing. At 80mph large branches will be snapping and siding will be coming off all the apartment buildings...bye bye power lines. At 90mph crap will start blowing through my northeast-facing apartment windows which I can't board up. At 100mph...well, someone will need to pass me the vapors...

But if she's a fish like you say; then I have nothing to worry about!

[sctvman]

It would be very devastating for us. The College of Charleston is just starting school, and The Citadel is supposed to start on Wednesday.

[FoothillsNC]

Hurricane forecasting is hard. With each of the last few runs, we've seen Irene be north and east of the expected track. What was an eastern Gulf landfall, then became a cut through the peninsula of Florida, to eastern Florida, to GA coast to lower SC coast, now middle SC coast. And the operationals are now mostly eastern Carolinas, esp. NC. No denying the trend is east, east , east. It fits climo for a hit between MYR and ILM or the Outer Banks. We'll see if this one is any different, but already I'm just about given up on getting any of that great multi -inch rain here.

[Stormsfury]

KCHS will be issuing 6 hour upper air soundings until further notice

[MJW155]

and there is the letter M !

Yea screw that. If it's going to be that strong, let SC/NC have Irene.

[downeastnc]

So far this is a textbook evolution of track shifts for a hit in the favored SC/NC border region, I am not saying that is for sure whats going to happen but so far this is how all our other hits have evolved. I am starting to feel optimistic that I might at least see decent TS wind gust in here next weekend.

[crossthread]

I'm going w?Climo, expect a direct Hit or near Miss...

[buckeyefan1]

KCHS will be issuing 6 hour upper air soundings until further notice

All along the southeast will be issuing soundings The only thing that holds my attention is the fact that the high yesterday was stronger than what was expected by I think around 30 dm? Interesting days ahead

[Lookout]

So, as I expected, this is beginning to look like a miss. There isn't a strong ridge to the west. There *is* a trough. It's *going* to recurve early. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.

You are being ridiculous and making posts without much, if any, real thought. The odds of this actually missing the US is probably less than 10 percent. There simply is NOT a strong trough that comes along in time to push it that far east.

As has happened many times in the past you will be the loudest complainer and then end up with some of the best weather from a storm. I know your M.O. is to be the most pessimistic person around (which is normally quite funny actually) but in this case you are looking pretty silly.

[downeastnc]

Talk about an OEM nightmare, still the tail end of tourist season, and given the trajectory coming in from the S coupled with the "M," small wobbles can change the coastal real estate in question significantly. Imagine tomorrow will be the preparation day for that area, with evac plans going into effect on Weds around noon, at-least that is how I remember it working in FL; 48 hr lead.

Gonna see them pull everyone off the coast from GA the NC at the least and maybe even the Tidewater of VA depending on how far east this thing comes in. This thing could put TS force or better winds from N Florida all the way to Hatteras if it gets as big as some models suggest, without landfalling anywhere, I however think its gonna hit and everyone east of that point is in for a ride......if it hits the favored SC/NC area as a strong Cat 3 moving N then we gonna get spanked here....prolly as bad or worse than Fran wind wise.

[triadwx]

Wow, woke up, and what a difference with the track, although, I think we all so this coming. I hope we can get some hurricane conditions more inland, I know that sounds selfish, but I've never experienced a hurricane.

[Sunny and Warm]

All along the southeast will be issuing soundings The only thing that holds my attention is the fact that the high yesterday was stronger than what was expected by I think around 30 dm? Interesting days ahead

yes, but I read on some thread earlier today that the high is modeled today at 20dm higher than it actually is.

[FoothillsNC]

So far this is a textbook evolution of track shifts for a hit in the favored SC/NC border region, I am not saying that is for sure whats going to happen but so far this is how all our other hits have evolved. I am starting to feel optimistic that I might at least see decent TS wind gust in here next weekend.

I think you're very much in the cone. I'm waiting until 12z full suite to make a map, but right now I'd go with the favored NC/SC border as the axis. Trends.

[Wow]

Hurricane forecasting is hard. With each of the last few runs, we've seen Irene be north and east of the expected track. What was an eastern Gulf landfall, then became a cut through the peninsula of Florida, to eastern Florida, to GA coast to lower SC coast, now middle SC coast. And the operationals are now mostly eastern Carolinas, esp. NC. No denying the trend is east, east , east. It fits climo for a hit between MYR and ILM or the Outer Banks. We'll see if this one is any different, but already I'm just about given up on getting any of that great multi -inch rain here.

I agree. Climo says if this hits it's most likely an upper SC/ NC coastal hit.

Though my inner weenie is still holding out hope that it'll swing in far enough inland to get in on it.

[crossthread]

Wow, woke up, and what a difference with the track, although, I think we all so this coming. I hope we can get some hurricane conditions more inland, I know that sounds selfish, but I've never experienced a hurricane.

No you DON'T, it's un-nerving...

Especailly IF it comes in a "M"

[sea1skiff]

No you DON'T, it's un-nerving...

Especailly IF it comes in a "M"

If you ever go thru a three you would never say that

I cant even imagine a 5

[BullCityWx]

I'm fairly sure that just S landing of Charleston is the worst case scenario for the city. Most of it's below sea level too so if it floods, you could have a katrina like situation.

[POWERSTROKE]

Some are saying it will be a cat 4 hitting right on nc/sc border. That would bring the most damage since Floyd.

[HurricaneJosh]

Some are saying it will be a cat 4 hitting right on nc/sc border. That would bring the most damage since Floyd.

That would be waaaaaay beyond Floyd-- there wouldn't even be a comparison.

[Stormsfury]

I'm fairly sure that just S landing of Charleston is the worst case scenario for the city. Most of it's below sea level too so if it floods, you could have a katrina like situation.

I think Charleston itself is at or slightly above sea level overall, but a landfall south of Charleston is indeed the absolute worst case scenario. most areas in Charleston proper flood when heavy rains strike during an afternoon thunderstorm, and are also susceptible to astronomical high tides. the 1893 Sea Island Hurricane when a 13.5 ft storm surge struck, and the estimate death toll was around 1500-2000 persons.

[crossthread]

Been there done that..w/Fran... SeaSkiff

Spent the Day on a Spoil Island AT the INLET, AKA South End of Oak Island, when Bertha came ashore @ Lockwood Folly Inlet, during that one... My Drunkin Self, I wanted tp "experience" a non Major.... It was interesting to say the least...

Ever seen 20+ foot breakers on the beach? in 80+ MPH winds?

[crossthread]

Some are saying it will be a cat 4 hitting right on nc/sc border. That would bring the most damage since Hazel/HUGO Floyd.

FIFY

Hazel or Hugo, take your pick...

[FoothillsNC]

FIFY

Hazel or Charlie, take your pick...

with all the development on the coast of the Carolinas since a major hurricane hit, this one would take the cake in damage I think. We've grown a LOT in the last 10 years in all the Carolinas.

[POWERSTROKE]

with all the development on the coast of the Carolinas since a major hurricane hit, this one would take the cake in damage I think. We've grown a LOT in the last 10 years in all the Carolinas.

I agree. Sad thing is we have been lucky for a while so when it does happen it won't be good

[Mencken_Fan]

Wow, woke up, and what a difference with the track, although, I think we all so this coming. I hope we can get some hurricane conditions more inland, I know that sounds selfish, but I've never experienced a hurricane.

If you get hurricane conditions in Winston-Salem; the casket business will be brisk along the coast.