Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[eyewall]

I am preparing to chase if possible .

[Lookout]

That was the trend in the early period of the GFS. Not my fault that it keeps the northern stream too slow later on.

Um, not quite right here either.

06z run will make you happy though, it is further east.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

351 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 26 2011 - 12Z MON AUG 29 2011

...TS IRENE FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE E FLORIDA/GA-SC

COAST FRI-SAT...

SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONGWAVE/SHORTWAVE PATTERN DEPICTED BY

THE LATEST GUIDANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL HAVE A

PROFOUND INFLUENCE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS IRENE. GLOBAL

GUIDANCE BEGINS DAY 3/THU MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A

SEEMINGLY PERPETUAL UPPER VORTEX CIRCULATING NEAR HUDSON

BAY...WHICH HELPS TO SUSTAIN A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE

EASTERN SEABOARD AND THUS IS THE MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR IRENE LATER

IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

IS PROJECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS FAST MOVING

SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER WESTERN CANADA BEFORE ENTERING THE MEAN

TROUGH IN THE EAST.

REGARDING DAY-TO-DAY DIFFERENCES...THE 00Z GFS LIES ALONG THE FAST

EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CRUCIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE

GREAT LAKES WHICH IS FAST ENOUGH TO NEARLY MISS TS IRENE THUS

RESULTING IN SLOWER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF IRENE ALONG THE EASTERN

SEABOARD COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER AND MORE

AMPLIFIED WITH THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH AND THUS ACCELERATES IRENE

NORTHEASTWARD MORE QUICKLY. WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN/GEFS MEAN

SUPPORTING THE 00Z ECMWF MID LATITUDE FLOW...PREFER THE CONSENSUS

HERE. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME INCREASINGLY

APPARENT BY DAY 6/SUN...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER AND NEAR THE STRONG

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING

THE PLAINS...WHICH THEN LIFTS THE REMAINS OF IRENE MORE QUICKLY

INTO THE NORTHEAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE INCREASING

SOLUTION SPREAD BY THIS TIME FRAME...WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSER TO

THE CONSENSUS OR GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS. FOR THE PRELIMINARY

PRESSURES/FRONTS...WILL BEGIN WITH A 70/30 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN BLEND

BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A 50/50 GFS/GEFS MEAN BLEND FOR DAY 6-7.

THE CHOICE OF THE GFS IS ALMOST ENTIRELY DUE TO THE GFS' PREFERRED

HANDLING OF IRENE WHICH IS CLOSET TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.

THUS...WILL MANUALLY SLOW THE FRONT ENTERING THE EAST FOR DAYS 3-4

DUE TO A PREFERRED NON-GFS SOLUTION MENTIONED ABOVE.

REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR

IRENE.

[deltadog03]

I think the EURO is too far EAST.....That shortwave coming down with either be weaker or quicker.....Just my take...

[Mencken_Fan]

I am preparing to chase if possible .

You could probably meet Jim Cantore at his favorite spot...Wrightsville Beach, lol.

[Lookout]

I think the EURO is too far EAST.....That shortwave coming down with either be weaker or quicker.....Just my take...

I have my doubts on these far east solutions. The trough that causes the initial break in the ridge lifts out of the northeast pretty quickly with heights rebuilding to irene's north after that, at about the time it's just east of miami. Despite this though, the euro and 06z gfs has it turning NNW and almost due north. As noted in the 5am advisory, this system is forecast to become quite big and if there is ever a case for a large and strong hurricane "modifying" it's environment enough to cause a difference in it's track, this maybe it. Now most of the time this card is overplayed and people end up being wrong but in this case with rebuilding heights as the trough moves out, the overall flow being so weak combined with the fact it looks more and more likely this is going to be a very strong and even a pretty large hurricane, that it's a definite possibility imho.

This just doesn't scream NNW to due N to me the entire time it's off the florida/southeast coast.

Likewise, Irene paralleling the entire length of the florida coast seems unlikely to me. If the steering environment is not going to be strong, frictional convergence could pull this system into the florida coast... If Irene gets as close to the florida east coast as the gfs, nam, and to a much lesser extent the euro (which keeps it far enough off the coast it wouldn't be a factor). We've seen this a number of times over the years and this seems like a very good candidate for it to happen again due to it's projected path and the steering environent.

So overall, I think she gets pulled northward substantially for a while then will turn to the left for a period of time (or perhaps even stalling) before finally turning back NNW to northward again with the incoming second trough. How long though, I can't say but I'd be surprised if irene stays on a NNW to N path the entire time it's just east of florida.

[FallsLake]

I have my doubts on these far east solutions. The trough that causes the initial break in the ridge lifts out of the northeast pretty quickly with heights rebuilding to irene's north after that, at about the time it's just east of miami. Despite this though, the euro and 06z gfs has it turning NNW and almost due north. As noted in the 5am advisory, this system is forecast to become quite big and if there is ever a case for a large and strong hurricane "modifying" it's environment enough to cause a difference in it's track, this maybe it. Now most of the time this card is overplayed and people end up being wrong but in this case with rebuilding heights as the trough moves out, the overall flow being so weak combined with the fact it looks more and more likely this is going to be a very strong and even a pretty large hurricane, that it's a definite possibility imho.

This just doesn't scream NNW to due N to me the entire time it's off the florida/southeast coast.

Likewise, Irene paralleling the entire length of the florida coast seems unlikely to me. If the steering environment is going to be that weak, frictional convergence could pull this system into the florida coast If Irene gets as close to the florida east coast as the gfs and to a lesser extent the euro shows. We've seen this a number of times over the years and this seems like a very good candidate for it to happen again due to it's projected path and the steering environent.

So overall, I think she gets pulled northward substantially for a while then will turn to the left for a period of time before finally turning back northward again with the incoming second trough. How long though, I can't say but I'd be surprised if irene stays on a NNW to N path the entire time it's just east of florida.

History would be against the storm turning into the east Florida coast. I can't remember the last time the east Florida coast to the Georgia coast recieved a landfall hurricane (has it happened in recorded history??). Not saying it can't happen, but I would bet the odds of this thing staying off the coast until SC or NC.

[deltadog03]

I have my doubts on these far east solutions. The trough that causes the initial break in the ridge lifts out of the northeast pretty quickly with heights rebuilding to irene's north after that, at about the time it's just east of miami. Despite this though, the euro and 06z gfs has it turning NNW and almost due north. As noted in the 5am advisory, this system is forecast to become quite big and if there is ever a case for a large and strong hurricane "modifying" it's environment enough to cause a difference in it's track, this maybe it. Now most of the time this card is overplayed and people end up being wrong but in this case with rebuilding heights as the trough moves out, the overall flow being so weak combined with the fact it looks more and more likely this is going to be a very strong and even a pretty large hurricane, that it's a definite possibility imho.

This just doesn't scream NNW to due N to me the entire time it's off the florida/southeast coast.

Likewise, Irene paralleling the entire length of the florida coast seems unlikely to me. If the steering environment is not going to be strong, frictional convergence could pull this system into the florida coast... If Irene gets as close to the florida east coast as the gfs, nam, and to a much lesser extent the euro (which keeps it far enough off the coast it wouldn't be a factor). We've seen this a number of times over the years and this seems like a very good candidate for it to happen again due to it's projected path and the steering environent.

So overall, I think she gets pulled northward substantially for a while then will turn to the left for a period of time (or perhaps even stalling) before finally turning back NNW to northward again with the incoming second trough. How long though, I can't say but I'd be surprised if irene stays on a NNW to N path the entire time it's just east of florida.

I agree......I actually think that this slows down, and **could** come back NW for a time....I just don't like the Eastern solutions...(for now)

[Sunny and Warm]

I have my doubts on these far east solutions. The trough that causes the initial break in the ridge lifts out of the northeast pretty quickly with heights rebuilding to irene's north after that, at about the time it's just east of miami. Despite this though, the euro and 06z gfs has it turning NNW and almost due north. As noted in the 5am advisory, this system is forecast to become quite big and if there is ever a case for a large and strong hurricane "modifying" it's environment enough to cause a difference in it's track, this maybe it. Now most of the time this card is overplayed and people end up being wrong but in this case with rebuilding heights as the trough moves out, the overall flow being so weak combined with the fact it looks more and more likely this is going to be a very strong and even a pretty large hurricane, that it's a definite possibility imho.

This just doesn't scream NNW to due N to me the entire time it's off the florida/southeast coast.

Likewise, Irene paralleling the entire length of the florida coast seems unlikely to me. If the steering environment is not going to be strong, frictional convergence could pull this system into the florida coast... If Irene gets as close to the florida east coast as the gfs, nam, and to a much lesser extent the euro (which keeps it far enough off the coast it wouldn't be a factor). We've seen this a number of times over the years and this seems like a very good candidate for it to happen again due to it's projected path and the steering environent.

So overall, I think she gets pulled northward substantially for a while then will turn to the left for a period of time (or perhaps even stalling) before finally turning back NNW to northward again with the incoming second trough. How long though, I can't say but I'd be surprised if irene stays on a NNW to N path the entire time it's just east of florida.

disagree somewhat here. Storms can and have paralleled the FL coast (Bob and David are two), and I've seen several that ran along the FL coast without getting pulled in. I would say that overall climo supports your position, but to use that in this particular case may not be wise. We'll see what the new model data inputs do tonight. I suspect a surprise or two from that ingestion.

[Lookout]

History would be against the storm turning into the east Florida coast. I can't remember the last time the east Florida coast to the Georgia coast recieved a landfall hurricane (has it happened in recorded history??). Not saying it can't happen, but I would bet the odds of this thing staying off the coast until SC or NC.

Well history also says the odds are against a storm getting right on miami's doorstep, stopping and then very closely paralleling almost the entire length of the florida peninsula as well, such as what the gfs, nam, and some of the hurricane models show. But history and climo is only useful but for so much. Yes it can be a useful tool but sometimes climo is overused and people ignore reality and you can't just ignore the actual present circumstances. A lot of actual weather events never would have happened if you believe some of the people who love using climo.

I'm guessing you are referring to northern florida where landfalling canes are quite rare, rather than the entire east coast of florida. But I'm not saying it's likely it will hit there regardless. In fact I think IF it hits florida, which I also am not saying is likely, is it would be central florida. Rather I'm simply saying due to the factors I mentioned, gives me pause about some of these models tracks. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out because less than 100 miles means all the difference in the world to where this thing makes landfall.

disagree somewhat here. Storms can and have paralleled the FL coast (Bob and David are two), and I've seen several that ran along the FL coast without getting pulled in. I would say that overall climo supports your position, but to use that in this particular case may not be wise. We'll see what the new model data inputs do tonight. I suspect a surprise or two from that ingestion.

Sigh..I never said it's impossible. I'm saying with the forecasted steering environment and factors such as frictional convergence *****could***** pull it into the coast of florida. I'm not sure why what I'm saying is so hard to understand here. The two of you seem to suggest I'm saying it absolutely will and there is no chance it parallels the coast, which I'm not at all.

And btw, the synoptic pattern/steering flow for both of those storms are quite different than what is being projected with this one. In fact, if you are talking about hurricane bob of 1985 fame, it's not even close.

[buckeyefan1]

Watching and waiting patiently as I await the next episode of As the Models Turn In other news......CAE has decided to add Irene to the HWO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

505 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-230915-

LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-

MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-

RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-

BAMBERG-

505 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND

CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE

AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN

GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD

BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN ISSUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE

NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORM COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ACROSS PORTIONS

OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IT IS

STILL TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IF IRENE WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE

REGION...PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA

SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM

THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

[UNCCmetgrad]

I have my doubts on these far east solutions. The trough that causes the initial break in the ridge lifts out of the northeast pretty quickly with heights rebuilding to irene's north after that, at about the time it's just east of miami. Despite this though, the euro and 06z gfs has it turning NNW and almost due north. As noted in the 5am advisory, this system is forecast to become quite big and if there is ever a case for a large and strong hurricane "modifying" it's environment enough to cause a difference in it's track, this maybe it. Now most of the time this card is overplayed and people end up being wrong but in this case with rebuilding heights as the trough moves out, the overall flow being so weak combined with the fact it looks more and more likely this is going to be a very strong and even a pretty large hurricane, that it's a definite possibility imho.

This just doesn't scream NNW to due N to me the entire time it's off the florida/southeast coast.

Likewise, Irene paralleling the entire length of the florida coast seems unlikely to me. If the steering environment is not going to be strong, frictional convergence could pull this system into the florida coast... If Irene gets as close to the florida east coast as the gfs, nam, and to a much lesser extent the euro (which keeps it far enough off the coast it wouldn't be a factor). We've seen this a number of times over the years and this seems like a very good candidate for it to happen again due to it's projected path and the steering environent.

So overall, I think she gets pulled northward substantially for a while then will turn to the left for a period of time (or perhaps even stalling) before finally turning back NNW to northward again with the incoming second trough. How long though, I can't say but I'd be surprised if irene stays on a NNW to N path the entire time it's just east of florida.

I thought this was a very interesting disco from the NHC this morning. One of the reasons they are still going for a more westward track for now is they think Irene will likely pump the ridge to her north more than models currently forecast. Here is that part of the discussion.

WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID-TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER

THAN WHAT NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

[strongwxnc]

Great disco folks!!

All I know is that Im running a race in Huntersville, NC next Sunday. The race is ran in the mud and it would be killer to have this weather happening...Granted that do not shut it down!!

[Sunny and Warm]

Well history also says the odds are against a storm getting right on miami's doorstep, stopping and then very closely paralleling almost the entire length of the florida peninsula as well, such as what the gfs, nam, and some of the hurricane models show. But history and climo is only useful but for so much. Yes it can be a useful tool but sometimes climo is overused and people ignore reality and you can't just ignore the actual present circumstances. A lot of actual weather events never would have happened if you believe some of the people who love using climo.

I'm guessing you are referring to northern florida where landfalling canes are quite rare, rather than the entire east coast of florida. But I'm not saying it's likely it will hit there regardless. In fact I think IF it hits florida, which I also am not saying is likely, is it would be central florida. Rather I'm simply saying due to the factors I mentioned, gives me pause about some of these models tracks. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out because less than 100 miles means all the difference in the world to where this thing makes landfall.

Sigh..I never said it's impossible. I'm saying with the forecasted steering environment and factors such as frictional convergence *****could***** pull it into the coast of florida. I'm not sure why what I'm saying is so hard to understand here. The two of you seem to suggest I'm saying it absolutely will and there is no chance it parallels the coast, which I'm not at all.

And btw, the synoptic pattern/steering flow for both of those storms are quite different than what is being projected with this one. In fact, if you are talking about hurricane bob of 1985 fame, it's not even close.

you're inferring more from my post than you should be. I generally agree with you.

[Isopycnic]

That was the trend in the early period of the GFS. Not my fault that it keeps the northern stream too slow later on.

Weirdmann is Typhoid Tips opposite doppelganger.

[Lookout]

I thought this was a very interesting disco from the NHC this morning. One of the reasons they are still going for a more westward track for now is they think Irene will likely pump the ridge to her north more than models currently forecast. Here is that part of the discussion.

WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID-TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER

THAN WHAT NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

Stewart as always provides great discussions and reasoning. He's considered by many to be the best they have. He's always throwing the weenies a bone

you're inferring more from my post than you should be. I generally agree with you.

What else am I supposed to infer when you said you disagreed with me when all I am giving are possible scenarios and factors to consider?

And on a note about the FC, the storm has to get relatively close like the 0z gfs. If it stays a hundred miles offshore, it won't be much of a factor. The 06z gfs is probably too far offshore for it to be much of one.

[HKY_WX]

I'm gonna post a blog update for a change this aft'. This storm has had me excited since Friday. Will be an interesting week.

[FallsLake]

I know this only goes to 2004. But this is what I was alluding to earlier. Anything can happen but you can't ignore the past. You'll notice only a few hits north of central Florida (until SC & NC); but two of them are David (double hits).

[Amos83]

Great disco folks!!

All I know is that Im running a race in Huntersville, NC next Sunday. The race is ran in the mud and it would be killer to have this weather happening...Granted that do not shut it down!!

Hey Strong I'm running in the Warrior Dash on Saturday.... i'll try to get the course nice and muddied up for you.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I'm gonna post a blog update for a change this aft'. This storm has had me excited since Friday. Will be an interesting week.

Looking forward to your analysis later today on Irene...

[Sunny and Warm]

I know this only goes to 2004. But this is what I was alluding to earlier. Anything can happen but you can't ignore the past. You'll notice only a few hits north of central Florida (until SC & NC); but two of them are David (double hits).

nice info. Anyone have any full length track info on David and Hazel?

Thanks

[WidreMann]

I think the EURO is too far EAST.....That shortwave coming down with either be weaker or quicker.....Just my take...

It has to be, because otherwise, we wouldn't get a storm.

[airmarci]

[WidreMann]

So, as I expected, this is beginning to look like a miss. There isn't a strong ridge to the west. There *is* a trough. It's *going* to recurve early. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.

[magpiemaniac]

Here's the hurricane history map for 1950 to 2010.

[Hugo]

nice info. Anyone have any full length track info on David and Hazel?

Thanks

[Sunny and Warm]

Thanks Hugo89! Hazel was an odd nut wasn't it? I'm going to research David's upper air charts, as current models appear to have Irene following David, but 100 miles further north and east along a similar path.

[HKY_WX]

Looking forward to your analysis later today on Irene...

Thanks D!

[downeastnc]

Thanks Hugo89! Hazel was an odd nut wasn't it? I'm going to research David's upper air charts, as current models appear to have Irene following David, but 100 miles further north and east along a similar path.

Actually from here on out the models really remind me of Hurricane Bertha's track, she was close to where Irene is now maybe a bit more north but the overall motion is similar.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bertha_1996_track.png

[WeatherNC]

Major making landfall along the Grand Strand... I would be very surprised if we see any further deviation outside of this cone, Miami to HAT, take you pick, most likely seems the SVH to ILM corridor.

[toad strangler]

Major making landfall along the Grand Strand... I would be very surprised if we see any further deviation outside of this cone, Miami to HAT, take you pick, most likely seems the SVH to ILM corridor.

and there is the letter M !