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Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

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triadwx

triadwx

Posted
Posted

If you are banking on a trough ever pulling the system closer to the SE, I have some AIG stock for you.

Actually, if the Bermuda High moves closer to the East Coast, and the SE death ridge moves farther out west, this storm is going to slam us.

Some quick Photoshoping...probably a little extreme, but you get the point.

irene1.jpg

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Mencken_Fan

Mencken_Fan

Posted
Posted

Looks like the track is shifting towards a fish. Give it a few more runs and it'll just be brushing the outer banks. Bank it.

Future models: Cape Romaine....then Cape Fear....then Cape Lookout....then Cape Hatteras....then Cape Race, LOL!

Actually, the Bermuda High looks pretty healthy all the way up to at least New Jersey through the week ahead so I wouldn't be placing any wagers on Irene escaping unless I could get some serious odds.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

We will have to see what the trend on the Euro is , but so far the GFS and GGEM have made major trends east. The GGEM is even more east, only brushing eastern NC. The UKMET is still well south and comes into the eastern Gulf. Looks out to lunch on that model.

Yeah the trend sucks. However, the gfs and quite a few of the other models had a major north bias with one of the previous storms this year down there...hopefully that's the case again.

It would figure though the damn models would show for days showing a good hit here only to go over to the eastern carolinas. If the NHC forecast pans out, we will be fine. It will be interesting to see how they take the change into consideration though but I have a feeling they will shift east with the next advisory unfortunately.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Yeah right. So because you guys have been around for a long time and get annoyed it gives you the right to be a jerk?? How about just ignoring the post and moving on. Guess that's not an option eh. :rolleyes:

There is no need for a spiteful post such as this. Your attitude sucks just as much as anyone as I was trying to explain it in a peaceful and friendly manner of why questions like that annoy everyone. And yes, if you don't have the ability to think "hey, maybe I should read the thread to see what they say about my area" and ask an IMBY question, that has had numerous posts discussing the track in relation to their area, they do deserve a little push back for being lazy.

Widre might have been a little blunt but he was right and the one that comes across as a jerk is you.

And If you have anymore comments on the situation, do it in the banter thread because this thread is not the place for it and anymore posts related to it will be deleted.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

The depiction from the 12z GFS is downright scary. While not a violent hurricane by any stretch in terms of pressure, the eyewall is clearly defined and more in line with the goofy type numbers the HWRF just spit out. 12z EC is north compared to the last run through 60 hrs per Allan on the mainside thread, skirts the northern coast of Hispaniola, with the center almost missing. If that happens, feel we may see some of these intensity forecasts begin to ramp up.

970-something, kind of suspect with that type of core structure!

2011082112_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_132.gif

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AbsolutZero

AbsolutZero

Posted
Posted

We will have to see what the trend on the Euro is , but so far the GFS and GGEM have made major trends east. The GGEM is even more east, only brushing eastern NC. The UKMET is still well south and comes into the eastern Gulf. Looks out to lunch on that model.

As expected, the 12Z UKMET looks very similar to the other 12Z models thru 42hrs. Didn't Irene get the memo that middle Georgia needs the rain? Also, DW, my thoughts aren't worth the electrons wasted to share them. :) I guess I got a little bold seeing 3+ days of model runs going for a west track into GA. Guess that left bias is as strong as ever.

southeast_dm.png

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

The depiction from the 12z GFS is downright scary. While not a violent hurricane by any stretch in terms of pressure, the eyewall is clearly defined and more in line with the goofy type numbers the HWRF just spit out. 12z EC is north compared to the last run through 60 hrs per Allan on the mainside thread, skirts the northern coast of Hispaniola, with the center almost missing. If that happens, feel we may see some of these intensity forecasts begin to ramp up.

970-something, kind of suspect with that type of core structure!

Completely agree. This will be a big one if it stays east of Florida

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

At 144 hours the ECMWF is battering most of eastern SC and esp. southern SC with a strong cat 3 coming inland just a fraction south of CHS. Major flooding and destruction with that track, even for northeast GA coastline. Then it heads due north to near Florence, SC by 150. Going to be a sharp cut off to the rain on the west side. Unfortunately not much rain in Central GA with this track. None from Athens to Macon and all points west.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

The depiction from the 12z GFS is downright scary. While not a violent hurricane by any stretch in terms of pressure, the eyewall is clearly defined and more in line with the goofy type numbers the HWRF just spit out. 12z EC is north compared to the last run through 60 hrs per Allan on the mainside thread, skirts the northern coast of Hispaniola, with the center almost missing. If that happens, feel we may see some of these intensity forecasts begin to ramp up.

970-something, kind of suspect with that type of core structure!

If I recall right, the global models do not have fine enough resolution to pick up the highest intensity pressure in the center of the hurricane.

That kind of looks like a Hugeo redux on the GFS (I guess it comes from a little more southerly direction than Hugo, though).

Regardless, unless this thing goes wide right and out to sea, we could be in for a nice rainstorm all across the southeast.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

If I recall right, the global models do not have fine enough resolution to pick up the highest intensity pressure in the center of the hurricane.

That kind of looks like a Hugeo redux on the GFS (I guess it comes from a little more southerly direction than Hugo, though).

Regardless, unless this thing goes wide right and out to sea, we could be in for a nice rainstorm all across the southeast.

except Irene is shown to have anearly due north trajectory at landfall, where Hugo was exactly northwest. Huge difference for areas inland, there will be a really tight cut off to the rain shield for the western Carolinas and eastern Georgia if the models like GFS and Euro are right. Usually , that cutoff is right at Charlotte and points west getting nada. But this one may come in a fraction south, closer to the GA coast, so we'll see. We have to wait and see what interaction it has with Hispaniola and northern Cuba because its right after that the sudden deepening is shown on both models.

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UNCCmetgrad

UNCCmetgrad

Posted
Posted

At 144 hours the ECMWF is battering most of eastern SC and esp. southern SC with a strong cat 3 coming inland just a fraction south of CHS. Major flooding and destruction with that track, even for northeast GA coastline. Then it heads due north to near Florence, SC by 150. Going to be a sharp cut off to the rain on the west side. Unfortunately not much rain in Central GA with this track. None from Athens to Macon and all points west.

I think this storm is a great example of why model runs before a well established low level center should be taken with a huge grain of salt. With that being said the GFS and EURO are still in good agreement on the track of Irene. Remembering several storms that hit around the NC/SC border to around Wilmington, NC most of the rain shields associated with those tropical cyclones made it as far west as the I-77 corridor. If Irene makes it as far west as say between Columbia and Florence then the rain shield should make its way back to around say Asheville.

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RevDodd

RevDodd

Posted
Posted

At 144 hours the ECMWF is battering most of eastern SC and esp. southern SC with a strong cat 3 coming inland just a fraction south of CHS. Major flooding and destruction with that track, even for northeast GA coastline. Then it heads due north to near Florence, SC by 150. Going to be a sharp cut off to the rain on the west side. Unfortunately not much rain in Central GA with this track. None from Athens to Macon and all points west.

post-868-0-73024900-1313955968.gif

A doggone frightening possibility from the Euro....940 at about Edisto.

post-868-0-73024900-1313955968.gif

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Looks like the track is shifting towards a fish. Give it a few more runs and it'll just be brushing the outer banks. Bank it.

no

The one that gets weakened by the trough?

what trough... I posted this back in the main thread showing the compairisons between Floyd and Irene's ECWMF forecast, but the only thing steering Irene further north beyond 120 is the subtropical high to its east. The ridging that builds is might actually even allow a slight westward component of motion. Notably absent is a trough.

Floyd:

s5aaon.png

Irene (ECWMF):

212s6y8.png

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I think this storm is a great example of why model runs before a well established low level center should be taken with a huge grain of salt. With that being said the GFS and EURO are still in good agreement on the track of Irene. Remembering several storms that hit around the NC/SC border to around Wilmington, NC most of the rain shields associated with those tropical cyclones made it as far west as the I-77 corridor. If Irene makes it as far west as say between Columbia and Florence then the rain shield should make its way back to around say Asheville.

who knows yet where this makes landfall (if any) but the further south it does, the better chance the rain has a chance to be west of a Columbia to Charlotte line (77). I can think of quite a few systems that hit around MYR or ILM and thats a climo spot for storms , and the rain shield stopped right around Charlotte to Winston or Greensboro line, quite a few have done that since the late 90's. I'm obviously rooting for a GA or southern SC landfall for the rain from it to reach this far west, but I have my doubts, unless the size is large. If it comes inland at CHS or points north, I'm pretty sure the rain will never make it west of Charlotte. The 12z runs are painfully close, and unfortunately I don't see much west movement onces its inland. The ECMWF looks reasonable at this point, but this is still way too early. The thing is moving so quickly, that will allow it to be affected by the first trough in a few days with a jog north somewhat around the central Bahamas, and we'd need good ridging to allow it to resume a little more nw track. Its a nailbiter at this point, extremely close to a Hugo track, but that had a steady steering bermuda high. The fun is in the chase though, we'll see how the runs match up with observations each hour.

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