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Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
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Based on the current motion and the ensemble data, I am 70% sure this misses FL and hits the Carolinas. The latest recon data shows that the hurricane models are OTL on intensity. 1007 mb does not impress me, this better get its act together or not much may be left after it hits Hispaniola. If it misses Hispaniola to the north, the miss of FL is assured and NC may be the most likely landfall point and it might be a pretty strong storm. I have all but given up on rain in western GA from this storm. The drought continues here.....:thumbsdown:

Starting to question myself on how much impact it will actually cause for western NC now..

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toad strangler

toad strangler

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Based on the current motion and the ensemble data, I am 70% sure this misses FL and hits the Carolinas. The latest recon data shows that the hurricane models are OTL on intensity. 1007 mb does not impress me, this better get its act together or not much may be left after it hits Hispaniola. If it misses Hispaniola to the north, the miss of FL is assured and NC may be the most likely landfall point and it might be a pretty strong storm. I have all but given up on rain in western GA from this storm. The drought continues here.....:thumbsdown:

NHC 11AM track update actually nudges the center of the cone west a little.

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MJW155

MJW155

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NHC 11AM track update actually nudges the center of the cone west a little.

I noticed that too. Looks like a track right up the spine of the peninsula.

Local forecast on NOAA says winds up to 39 mph for Thursday afternoon and the TS wind probability is 30-40%.

One thing to keep in mind is that if it hits the Carolinas, the timing is still about a week away.

For S. Florida it's only 4 days out.

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

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One of the things I'm eyeballing is the general consensus of the weakness in the Southeast left behind as a couple of troughs exit stage right in the upcoming period. Second, the EURO accurately depicted Emily's demise across Hispaniola, where as both this time, the EURO makes Irene a big deal on its outputs, which indicates to me, that the ENVIRONMENT Irene will have to contend with is a rather ideal one for further development, even with subsequent land interactions in the Caribbean.

One other thing to note also is, the overall trend this summer has been for model consensus to break down subsequent ridging in the Southeast US a little too quickly at times which also may end up playing a big part of the overall movement of Irene in the coming days.

So many variables on the table. I have to keep this short and sweet, but the general idea is that something is coming to the SE US, in what form, and severity remains to be seen. Nail down the immediate before we can speculate on the future.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Gonna be a fun day tracking, living in eastern NC teaches you learn to not trust a track forecast once the LF point gets north of Miami......just about every storm that has hit us was first suppose to hit S Florida, then N FL or GA, then Charleston, then Myrtle Beach before finally hitting the SC/NC/ILM area.

I have also seen hurricanes get right up to the SE NC coast stop and head out to sea after models insist its gonna hit.

IF you live within 200 miles of the SE coast you need to be looking out for Irene or her rem low cause most likely someone getting hit this time.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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Gonna be a fun day tracking, living in eastern NC teaches you learn to not trust a track forecast once the LF point gets north of Miami......just about every storm that has hit us was first suppose to hit S Florida, then N FL or GA, then Charleston, then Myrtle Beach before finally hitting the SC/NC/ILM area.

I have also seen hurricanes get right up to the SE NC coast stop and head out to sea after models insist its gonna hit.

IF you live within 200 miles of the SE coast you need to be looking out for Irene or her rem low cause most likely someone getting hit this time.

Vaguely agreed.

I'm just sensing a Floyd-esque track with this-- i.e., a FL miss, with the motion being generally parallel to the SE USA coast-- all of which means the landfall point will be hard to nail down.

I'm no forecaster-- I don't get in that game-- it's just a vibe I'm getting from the model shifts, from things certain wise sources are saying, and so on.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Vaguely agreed.

I'm just sensing a Floyd-esque track with this-- i.e., a FL miss, with the motion being generally parallel to the SE USA coast-- all of which means the landfall point will be hard to nail down.

I'm no forecaster-- I don't get in that game-- it's just a vibe I'm getting from the model shifts, from things certain wise sources are saying, and so on.

At least it wont screw up the Carib Sea to much and still allow you to get that monster cruiser into MX. Heck who knows this thing has the potential to be Hugo/Fran like somewhere up the SE coast as the ridge builds back in and something similar to those would be chase worthy.....

You would have had a blast in Fran plenty of gust in the 100-110 knt range.....

IRT to Irene there are plenty of stations on the Virgin Islands so we should get a good idea of what and where the center is here in the next few hours....

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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At least it wont screw up the Carib Sea to much and still allow you to get that monster cruiser into MX.

:wub: You're very kind.

Heck who knows this thing has the potential to be Hugo/Fran like somewhere up the SE coast as the ridge builds back in and something similar to those would be chase worthy.....

You would have had a blast in Fran plenty of gust in the 100-110 knt range.....

Yep, if the ridge builds back in and it comes ashore moving W of N, then I think there's the potential for more of a real "red-meat" cyclone (as I like to call 'em) landfalling somewhere in GA/SC/NC.

IRT to Irene there are plenty of stations on the Virgin Islands so we should get a good idea of what and where the center is here in the next few hours....

Yep-- and hopefully once the center "stabilizes", the models can begin to initialize this properly and we should have a better take on where it's going. Such a complicated setup.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Ridge is building to Irene's north and east at 108 causing her to slow down 100-150 miles off the coast of Florida...I'm starting to wonder if this pesky storm may "fish"?

12zgfs500mbHGHTNA108.gif

That would be crazy so much for X number of GFS runs in a row showing it hit huh lol, however a total recurve seems kinda hard to pull off given the ridge. If you take everything into account..the center being well north of were it was modeled to be several days ago and the continued movement more WNW, the weakness over the east coast etc one has to think Central FL to Hatteras needs get ready.

Also me and Shaggy did some research and there were 8 years where NC had more than 30 tornados between Jan 1 and June 1 and in 7 of those years we got hit by a TC, then remember Irene made a serious run at us in 99 so maybe she is coming to finish what she started.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

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stop. Being a moderator (for free I might add) isn't sunshine and happiness. I've never known one to upset the apple cart for jollies. The original post was a close call for moderation, but that's not my call or yours. Unless egregious in nature where it requires pointing out the mistake to everyone, I would prefer the posts be deleted and a PM sent to the offerender for future reference. But, not my call.

back to Irene ...

Lol.. You tell ocala to stop being a moderator but not widremann when widremann was the one who told me to stop posting and read more. In addition widremann was being a jerk. But I could care less if asking a simple question causes all that! Everyone on my Mothers side of the family lives here in Deep Southeast Georgia and I just wanted to know if there would be any impact. I dont care anymore. Anyways you guys keep us updated on Irene. Great job!

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Looks to me like this is normally how cane's travel into the Southeast. Without a ridge to steer them pretty far west, once the turn north begins in the Bahamas, the natural course will be eastern Carolinas. This run fits that bill, not much once you get west of Interstate 77 in NC, which having lived here all my life, we just don't get much of anything from storms that make landfall in SC unless its a Hugo/nw track. I wouldn't say this is the final track though, it all depends on where the turn begins.

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

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Lol.. You tell ocala to stop being a moderator but not widremann when widremann was the one who told me to stop posting and read more. In addition widremann was being a jerk. But I could care less if asking a simple question causes all that! Everyone on my Mothers side of the family lives here in Deep Southeast Georgia and I just wanted to know if there would be any impact. I dont care anymore. Anyways you guys keep us updated on Irene. Great job!

Number one, I was not calling Ocala a moderator. Maybe Widremann's advice is apropos and that you should read more often. As far as your question, I guess you still don't get it do you? It's five plus days away from a potential landfall, and models aren't good enough yet to stiff inside a 100 mile error cone. If you would read more than post you'd know that. Otherwise, your post is showing your age. Grow up.

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triadwx

triadwx

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Looks to me like this is normally how cane's travel into the Southeast. Without a ridge to steer them pretty far west, once the turn north begins in the Bahamas, the natural course will be eastern Carolinas. This run fits that bill, not much once you get west of Interstate 77 in NC, which having lived here all my life, we just don't get much of anything from storms that make landfall in SC unless its a Hugo/nw track. I wouldn't say this is the final track though, it all depends on where the turn begins.

May sound like a noob question, but we'd be in for a serious pounding correct? Even up here?

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

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Looks like the track is shifting towards a fish. Give it a few more runs and it'll just be brushing the outer banks. Bank it.

don't know about that much of a right turn, but I live in Hilton Head, and I'm not that concerned. We've got five days for this to head up the coast. My guess is Charleston to Wilmington at this point, although your guess is certainly within the realm of possibility.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Looks like the track is shifting towards a fish. Give it a few more runs and it'll just be brushing the outer banks. Bank it.

This is why we love having you here, the only thing better is the normal crop of newbies that go off on you.......:whistle:

Edit: just like snowstorms you dont wont to be in the bullseye 5 days out, by Tues the NHC will have a H plot over coast of SC with a Cat 3-4 storm and this thread is going to go nuts.

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