Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[Cheeznado]

0z King Euro bring Irene up the East Coast of Florida but the ridge never erodes and she comes ashore Savannah 970 mb between 144 and 168 hours..."Hugo-like" track (about 50 miles farther down the coast)...another run where the EURO puts together that rare Georgia landfall. That would be historic...

EDIT: Storm sitting over Central Georgia at 168 hours...big time issues for the eastern half of Georgia, Western Carolinas, Southern Apps.

I really hope this is correct, will believe it when I see it.....

[Marion_NC_WX]

How far inland is the EURO showing?

It moves northwest from the coast to a position near Macon or roughly between Macon and Atlanta. Then it pulls due north into Upstate SC as Irene begins to interact with a trough. Given the prolonged onshore flow and any trough interaction, orographic lift...this is still at the least a significant rain event east of I-75 and into the Carolinas.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I really hope this is correct, will believe it when I see it.....

I'm with ya on that...I'll pulling for this storm to take the rare track. Like Foothills mentioned yesterday, it would give us a chance to witness something historic.

[Bozart]

The 0Z model suite initialized hours before we started seeing evidence of relocation north. If that relocation pans out, wouldn't that transpose the whole 0Z model scenario somewhat north as well (SC instead of GA)?

[phil882]

Updated radar for you guys! Of course I'm in Albany and don't have a dog in this fight, but I think everyone could use a good soaking

[Mencken_Fan]

New GFS has gone back east over eastern FL, my main concern is that it will go too far east to give us a good soaking....

Your miss would be my gain....but because I'm a benevolent person, I'd be just as happy to see GA get a direct hit (from a reasonable hurricane) as Cape Fear, N.C.

I wonder how many times Georgians have been "in the cone" knowing it was hopeless....must be frustrating. Anyway, I've heard Savannah is a very nice area; we wouldn't want to mess it up too bad now would we?

[Mencken_Fan]

Well that really helps. You need to chill out. I just asked a freaking question about if Irene will have an impact on Southeast Georgia. My god! I barely even post and is mostly reading everyone else posts.

Boy did I see this post coming, LOL.

You probably just caught WidreMan at a bad moment; for this section of the website is easily the most civil. If you really want to get shot down, just post in those areas where you'll find the cliques (which unfortunately may include moderators.) In those areas, some are given a pass to post as many non-informational or even mean-spirited posts as they want, whle the rest are told to shut up.

It's going to be a busy week; I hope (and expect) we in the Southeast can all maintain our normal composure.

[Lookout]

Well that really helps. You need to chill out. I just asked a freaking question about if Irene will have an impact on Southeast Georgia. My god! I barely even post and is mostly reading everyone else posts.

Don't take it too personally, he's just giving you a suggestion and in fact he's right. Our group doesn't have as much problems as others but too often people don't take the time to read the thread and then they ask a question that has been answered numerous times or a page back. Widre, like many of us, has been around for a long time and have seen it more times than we can count and it does get annoying.

Likewise, one of the *worst* things you can ever do is quote TWC forecasts. They have virtually no human input but rather are based on output from the gfs. So they are not to be taken seriously at all and most of the time are a joke. If you want real forecasts stick with the nws or this board. (Although in the long range the nws isn't going to jump on a big event due to the uncertainty of what could happen at that range so this board is a much better outlet for the long range).

So please don't get offended by his or my posts. We are simply trying to help you with board etiquette. Not only will it save you from having people get annoyed, it saves me some aggravation because I have to deal with it when someone complains lol

[Lookout]

The 0Z model suite initialized hours before we started seeing evidence of relocation north. If that relocation pans out, wouldn't that transpose the whole 0Z model scenario somewhat north as well (SC instead of GA)?

Possibly (such as this time) but in reality that far into the future it might not matter since other factors (such as details surrounding incoming troughs or ridge strength) are far more significant and can often wash out any short term factors such as that. We've seen center relocations numerous times with little to no impact on the 3+day forecasts or eventual actual track. Indeed sometimes in cases like this the actual track of the center ends up further west than it was progged prior to the center relocation (or further east despite a reformation to the south) due to the reasons mentioned above. The 06z runs were in fact further east than the 0z runs in this case but I would take it lightly at this point. It very well might end up being further east though so we shall see.

Since this system is likely to effect the southeast in a big way in some fashion, will go ahead and pin this thread.

[ocala]

Don't take it too personally, he's just giving you a suggestion and in fact he's right. Our group doesn't have as much problems as others but too often people don't take the time to read the thread and then they ask a question that has been answered numerous times or a page back. Widre, like many of us, has been around for a long time and have seen it more times than we can count and it does get annoying.

Likewise, one of the *worst* things you can ever do is quote TWC forecasts. They have virtually no human input but rather are based on output from the gfs. So they are not to be taken seriously at all and most of the time are a joke. If you want real forecasts stick with the nws or this board. (Although in the long range the nws isn't going to jump on a big event due to the uncertainty of what could happen at that range so this board is a much better outlet for the long range).

So please don't get offended by his or my posts. We are simply trying to help you with board etiquette. Not only will it save you from having people get annoyed, it saves me some aggravation because I have to deal with it when someone complains lol

Yeah right. So because you guys have been around for a long time and get annoyed it gives you the right to be a jerk?? How about just ignoring the post and moving on. Guess that's not an option eh.

[shaggy]

Is it just me or does the new position of 16.5N and 62W still look too far south? IMO and according to my untrained and early morning not woke up good yet eyes the center is at around 17N 62.2W? Correct me if I am not seeing this right.

[Sunny and Warm]

Is it just me or does the new position of 16.5N and 62W still look too far south? IMO and according to my untrained and early morning not woke up good yet eyes the center is at around 17N 62.2W? Correct me if I am not seeing this right.

last recon I saw 45 minutes ago had it at 16.8N. In the Irene thread - part one, page 50 or 51.

[Sunny and Warm]

Possibly (such as this time) but in reality that far into the future it might not matter since other factors (such as details surrounding incoming troughs or ridge strength) are far more significant and can often wash out any short term factors such as that. We've seen center relocations numerous times with little to no impact on the 3+day forecasts or eventual actual track. Indeed sometimes in cases like this the actual track of the center ends up further west than it was progged prior to the center relocation (or further east despite a reformation to the south) due to the reasons mentioned above. The 06z runs were in fact further east than the 0z runs in this case but I would take it lightly at this point. It very well might end up being further east though so we shall see.

Since this system is likely to effect the southeast in a big way in some fashion, will go ahead and pin this thread.

Normally, I'd agree. however in this case, it appears unlikely the Atlantic high will weaken enough for Irene to escape. If anything, I'm concerned about her staying just east of FL and then swinging NW as the high rebuilds west. As you can tell from my location, I'm not excited by that. The real battle is where does it make landfall. I have said south of Miami, and I'm still sitting there with that call.

[buckeyefan1]

Read more, post less. Also, don't watch the Weather Channel.

Well that really helps. You need to chill out. I just asked a freaking question about if Irene will have an impact on Southeast Georgia. My god! I barely even post and is mostly reading everyone else posts.

If you READ you would find the answer to your question...

Don't take it too personally, he's just giving you a suggestion and in fact he's right. Our group doesn't have as much problems as others but too often people don't take the time to read the thread and then they ask a question that has been answered numerous times or a page back. Widre, like many of us, has been around for a long time and have seen it more times than we can count and it does get annoying.

Likewise, one of the *worst* things you can ever do is quote TWC forecasts. They have virtually no human input but rather are based on output from the gfs. So they are not to be taken seriously at all and most of the time are a joke. If you want real forecasts stick with the nws or this board. (Although in the long range the nws isn't going to jump on a big event due to the uncertainty of what could happen at that range so this board is a much better outlet for the long range).

So please don't get offended by his or my posts. We are simply trying to help you with board etiquette. Not only will it save you from having people get annoyed, it saves me some aggravation because I have to deal with it when someone complains lol

Yeah right. So because you guys have been around for a long time and get annoyed it gives you the right to be a jerk?? How about just ignoring the post and moving on. Guess that's not an option eh.

I don't see where anyone was being a jerk. I guess it was not an option for you either to just ignore the post and move on.

It looks like a bump for this thread http://www.americanw...ting-etiquette/ is needed. Please read this during active weather periods to make your experience here enjoyable.

Now....back to your regular scheduled program

[Sunny and Warm]

Yeah right. So because you guys have been around for a long time and get annoyed it gives you the right to be a jerk?? How about just ignoring the post and moving on. Guess that's not an option eh.

stop. Being a moderator (for free I might add) isn't sunshine and happiness. I've never known one to upset the apple cart for jollies. The original post was a close call for moderation, but that's not my call or yours. Unless egregious in nature where it requires pointing out the mistake to everyone, I would prefer the posts be deleted and a PM sent to the offerender for future reference. But, not my call.

back to Irene ...

[shaggy]

Normally, I'd agree. however in this case, it appears unlikely the Atlantic high will weaken enough for Irene to escape. If anything, I'm concerned about her staying just east of FL and then swinging NW as the high rebuilds west. As you can tell from my location, I'm not excited by that. The real battle is where does it make landfall. I have said south of Miami, and I'm still sitting there with that call.

This system swinging just east of Florida would cause a mass evacuation again like floyd did. That is gonna be one huge headache for the governer of Florida and the EOM's of that state. Regardless of the eventual track it will be close enough to Florida(if not right over it) that its going to be a tough week down there.

If it does stay east of florida then that headache will be spread up and down the east coast.

Anyone know if the G-IV flights are gonna start soon? Only thing I can find is for the 23rd?

B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.

3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S

MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL

SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION.

[eyewall]

I am waiting to see what emerges on the other side of Hispaniola / Cuba before I get too excited.

[buckeyefan1]

This system swinging just east of Florida would cause a mass evacuation again like floyd did. That is gonna be one huge headache for the governer of Florida and the EOM's of that state. Regardless of the eventual track it will be close enough to Florida(if not right over it) that its going to be a tough week down there.

If it does stay east of florida then that headache will be spread up and down the east coast.

Anyone know if the G-IV flights are gonna start soon? Only thing I can find is for the 23rd?

B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.

3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S

MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL

SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION.

Looks like tomorrow

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1155 AM EDT FRI 19 AUGUST 2011

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2011

TCPOD NUMBER.....11-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71

A. 20/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST

C. 20/1615Z

D. 15.3N 57.5W

E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2130Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. TROPICAL DERESSION EIGHT

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76

A. 21/0000Z

B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE

C. 20/2015Z

D. 17.0N 88.00W

E. 20/2330Z TO 21/0300Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:

A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON WHAT IS NOW THE SUSPECT

AREA IF IT DEVELOPS AT 21/1200Z.

B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR THE

SAME SYSTEM AT 22/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

JWP

[BullCityWx]

I am waiting to see what emerges on the other side of Hispaniola / Cuba before I get too excited.

It's even less fruitful to get excited over a tropical system 5+ days out than a snowstorm. I need to see the same before it shows up on my radar.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Some mid-morning thoughts...

Irene continues to move westward this morning...there is some drier air on the southern half of the storm but you can easily the improving structure on satellite. If or when Irene can fight off that dry air, she will be a significant system in regards to size.

Now...to the models, a general consensus has formed overnight that Irene will travel over or near Hispanola and then turn NW across Eastern Cuba and head towards South Florida. So therefor the first benchmark we need to keep an eye on is where that turn does indeed happen. That will have a huge role in where Irene will end up and how she will affect the Southeast US in the longer range.

Speaking of the longer range (Days 5-7)...there are basically two camps of thought on the track.

The first idea is that of the GFS trying to stall Irene just off the Florida Pennisula and then she moves north towards a GA/SC landfall. Any kind of stall in Florida would IMO shorten the chances that Irene can get inland and affect a large area of the interior Southeast. The Eastern Carolina weenies at heart will want that type of scenario.

For us back inland, we would want the European model solution to verify because the Euro holds the ridge in the east a little stronger and it keeps Irene moving at a more steady pace resulting in that elusive Georgia landfall.

I know we'll all be analyzing all the model runs and how they perform but we need to reach that first benchmark of Hispanola/Cuba before we can confidently narrow down a track.

[shaggy]

The center just crossed st kits here is the obs station. Winds switched to the south and pressure down to 1002mb

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

[MJW155]

I am waiting to see what emerges on the other side of Hispaniola / Cuba before I get too excited.

I'm worried it will go north of the islands for the most part and hit S. Florida as a major.

The NHC center has the center about 20 miles west of me at 120 hrs. w/ 85 mph winds.

[downeastnc]

I am waiting to see what emerges on the other side of Hispaniola / Cuba before I get too excited.

At the rate its redeveloping its center to the north it might just miss these to the north, hell it looks to maybe even skirt the NORTH coast or directly impact PR.....

[Sunny and Warm]

At the rate its redeveloping its center to the north it might just miss these to the north, hell it looks to maybe even skirt the NORTH coast or directly impact PR.....

I'm seeing the same thing, although when not jumping north, it is mainly heading west or 280 degrees. I'm expecting this to be the last jump, and Irene to impact the southern half of PR and northeastern third of DR.

[Mencken_Fan]

stop. Being a moderator (for free I might add) isn't sunshine and happiness. I've never known one to upset the apple cart for jollies. The original post was a close call for moderation, but that's not my call or yours. Unless egregious in nature where it requires pointing out the mistake to everyone, I would prefer the posts be deleted and a PM sent to the offerender for future reference. But, not my call.

back to Irene ...

Agreed; that's the best way to do it because it kills two birds with one stone.

1.) It gives the poster pause to consider the groups posting style.

And...

2.) It prevents the thing that most irritates me about this or any other website; the wave of copycat posters who chime in to beat the original poster to death. That is; A makes a post, B complains about it, then C, D and E pop up out of nowhere to do nothing more than repeat B's complaint as if to say to B: "right on, I'm with you buddy." It's ridiculous - yet I see it time and time again.

Being a moderator may be a pain in the rear at times but it doesn't have to be a thankless job. The fact is, moderators range from dreadful to outstanding; and the latter should be given a pat on the back every once in a while (whether in public or private.)

And heck, it might not hurt every once in a while to send a private note to the site owner (who's name escapes me at the moment) commenting pro or con on some of our moderators.

[Cheeznado]

Based on the current motion and the ensemble data, I am 70% sure this misses FL and hits the Carolinas. The latest recon data shows that the hurricane models are OTL on intensity. 1007 mb does not impress me, this better get its act together or not much may be left after it hits Hispaniola. If it misses Hispaniola to the north, the miss of FL is assured and NC may be the most likely landfall point and it might be a pretty strong storm. I have all but given up on rain in western GA from this storm. The drought continues here.....

[WeatherNC]

At the rate its redeveloping its center to the north it might just miss these to the north, hell it looks to maybe even skirt the NORTH coast or directly impact PR.....

Overnight and early morning plots from the SFWMD... Of note, almost half of the 6z GFS members are wide right. Guidance however is heavily clustered along the east cast of FL, from just onshore, to about 150 miles east of Cape Canaveral. One has to wonder, if the ill defined center keeps trending north after these models initialize, how much further right this could go. SVH seems to be the bulls-eye atm, although we are certainly going to have some land issues to contend with over the next 24-36 hrs.

[shaggy]

Based on the current motion and the ensemble data, I am 70% sure this misses FL and hits the Carolinas. The latest recon data shows that the hurricane models are OTL on intensity. 1007 mb does not impress me, this better get its act together or not much may be left after it hits Hispaniola. If it misses Hispaniola to the north, the miss of FL is assured and NC may be the most likely landfall point and it might be a pretty strong storm. I have all but given up on rain in western GA from this storm. The drought continues here.....

St kitts dropped down to 1002mb with a wind shift to the north of that 1007mb reading so its likely recon missed the center?

[toad strangler]

I'm worried it will go north of the islands for the most part and hit S. Florida as a major.

In other words a Big Bahama Mama. I am pretty confident given model consensus that she does not miss Hispaniola. The greater general turn to the NW and then N and when this actually verifies is what has me busy.

[downeastnc]

I'm seeing the same thing, although when not jumping north, it is mainly heading west or 280 degrees. I'm expecting this to be the last jump, and Irene to impact the southern half of PR and northeastern third of DR.

As long as the main convective blob is firing in the NE quad this thing is going to continue to get pulled more NE some, looks to hit the east coast of PR and this will disrupt the llc and if the main convection is still to the north another center relocation might occur pulling the center NORTH of PR. I am starting to feel pretty good about this thing missing Cuba to the north and possibly missing most of DR, also the eastern part of DR is the lowest and will be the least disruptive to the storm. In fact folks in Florida will be in full on panic mode by tomorrow but I think this misses most of Florida and is gonna be a problem from GA to NC somewhere.