Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[chapelhillwx]

So we've got HWRF on the right flank and NOGAPS guarding the left. It's hard to read a consensus with all those milibars jammed together.

But landfall somewhere between Topsail and Morehead sound reasonable?

Morehead seems more likely right now IMHO.

[Solak]

Been following on GR3 radar while we were down, and it appears that Irene has only moved 10 miles +/- to the NNW (350°) in 2.5 hours? Does that hold any major implications down the road?

[Bozart]

Been following on GR3 radar while we were down, and it appears that Irene has only moved 10 miles +/- to the NNW (350°) in 2.5 hours? Does that hold any major implications down the road?

Melourne radar loop does seem to indicate a stall.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[sctvman]

All the way out here in Charleston we're seeing the outer cloud bands of Irene and wind picking up.

[Carvers Gap]

All the way out here in Charleston we're seeing the outer cloud bands of Irene and wind picking up.

Rolled through Johns Island this summer. Glad you folks may steer clear of this one. Hugo was enough for a long, long time. Worked w/ Rural Mission on J.I....took years to recover and in some ways never has. Many folks moved on. Good luck to all of you E NC folks. My grandmother was from Wilmington. Thick coastal accent to go w/ it. Anyway, E TN is always a good place to ride out a storm! Looks like North Carolina is the bullseye.

[Solak]

Melourne radar loop does seem to indicate a stall.

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

Agreed --- looks stationary on GR3 now as well.

[Mencken_Fan]

While everyone is concentrating on the land-fall location, what about the size of the eye-wall? Is there any way of having a clue as to the size of the eye-wall when it reaches N.C.? Point being of course, a "miss" is not necessarily such....

[sctvman]

Get this. Charleston County Schools CLOSED tomorrow.

[kvegas-wx]

Did the site crash earlier today run everyone off? This thing is upon us and it appears this place is empty?

Mother in law lives in Washington, NC right on the sound. Makin' me nervous. If Irene reaches Cat 4 or high Cat 3 I may have to hit the road tomorrow and help with some storm prep. If I go that far, I want to go all in and see my first hurricane. So I ask the crew here, where would you recommend I go from Washington to ride out a few hours of Irene? I don't want to get stuck on the edge of the sound (Bath, Swan Quarter). I'd like to have some freedom to move north / south. Thoughts?

[aanance]

Has anyone seen the Euro it has it coming in at Cape Fear. Any thoughts?

[Hugo]

Get this. Charleston County Schools CLOSED tomorrow.

Issuing a voluntary evac?

[WeatherNC]

Has anyone seen the Euro it has it coming in at Cape Fear. Any thoughts?

Looked like MHX to me, but keep me updated...

[SN_Lover]

Issuing a voluntary evac?

UNCW is also in a voluntary evacuation now

"Voluntary Evacuation Issued for UNCW Due to Hurricane Irene Beginning Noon on Friday The Wilmington area is now under a hurricane warning and UNCW is implementing a voluntary evacuation beginning at noon on Friday, August 26. Classes are cancelled beginning at noon; the library will be closed at noon and will reopen on Saturday at 1 p.m. An update will be issued around 8 a.m. on Friday morning."

[phil882]

Updated thoughts this evening for the southeast crew... lowered my max and landfall intensity for NC just a tad, although my landfall spot is nearly in the same location maybe just a small nudge to the west.

http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/08/25/hurricane-irene-maintains-strength-hurricane-warnings-issued-for-north-carolina-coastline/

[sctvman]

Charleston County government also closed tomorrow, along with Bishop England High School. No evacuations as of yet.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like it is going to go right up the Pamlico Sound and stay strong all the way to NYC.

[Solak]

How does a storm that has shown being stationary for the better part of 4 hours on radar come in at the 11:00 update as moving along at 14 knots?

[eyewall]

Well no chasing for me as my job needs me to work the storm. The price of becoming a full time met is working when there is a storm. I guess I will enjoy the 30 mph gusts.

[WeatherNC]

000

URNT12 KWBC 260216

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 26/0158Z

B. 27 DEG 49 MIN N

77 DEG 21 MIN W

C. NA

D. 82 KT

E. 031 DEG 13 NM

F. 128 DEG 99 KT

G. 035 DEG 18 NM

H. 942 MB

I. 17 C/2445 M

J. 21 C/2440 M

K. 16 C/NA

L. OPEN SW

M. C 25

N. 12345/NA

O. 1/1 NM

P. NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 36 AL092011

MAX FL WIND 111KT NE QUAD 2125Z

[packbacker]

So far the GFS has the north turn nailed as it turned north at 77.3. The Euro actually turned at 78 so we can throw out the euros western solution.

[ryan1234]

To the untrained eye it looks to me like she made a jump towards the NE. Watch this thing totally miss the NC coast.

[packbacker]

To the untrained eye it looks to me like she made a jump towards the NE. Watch this thing totally miss the NC coast.

That would be surprising as no model has that, probably just wobling. Although I wont be disappointed if this misses east, rather have my weekend.

[ryan1234]

That would be surprising as no model has that, probably just wobling. Although I wont be disappointed if this misses east, rather have my weekend.

Yeah that is probably the case. Although it wouldn't surprise me to see this thing miss the OBX, and head towards the NE.

[Bozart]

So far the GFS has the north turn nailed as it turned north at 77.3. The Euro actually turned at 78 so we can throw out the euros western solution.

Melbourne radar tells me there is no longer any westward component to the storm's movement -- more like a due-north drift -- and I doubt any future NNW motion is now likely. Like a few others here, I am suspecting the Morehead City landfall is in some trouble.

[packbacker]

Melbourne radar tells me there is no longer any westward component to the storm's movement -- more like a due-north drift -- and I doubt any future NNW motion is now likely. Like a few others here, I am suspecting the Morehead City landfall is in some trouble.

I agree, the Hatteras landfall looks like a good bet.

[downeastnc]

Yeah that is probably the case. Although it wouldn't surprise me to see this thing miss the OBX, and head towards the NE.

The north movement now is completely expected and well modeled, this is the trough pulling the storm north, it however is not going to be enough to turn her out and once the trough moves out NE the ridge which was under done several days ago will build back in a bit and turn her more NNW so the NHC track as it stands should be pretty close. Again if anything I would expect the ridge to be stronger than modeled and the storm to if anything end up a bit further west say Onslow Bay and the west end of the Emerald Isle vs the MHX/Atlantic Beach end.

Remember the 12Z runs on the GFS today that were east of the earlier 06Z runs in the short term then ended up back close to or even a touch WEST of the 06Z once it got later in the run this is what you are seeing actually happen right now

Now this doesnt mean that some other poorly modeled feature cant or wont kick her east it just doesnt appears as this time to be anything in the pipeline to significantly change her hitting somewhere on mainland NC.

[eyewall]

[packbacker]

Nitpicking but GFS shifted about 30 miles east, in the middle of MHX and HAT.

[WeatherNC]

The north movement now is completely expected and well modeled, this is the trough pulling the storm north, it however is not going to be enough to turn her out and once the trough moves out NE the ridge which was under done several days ago will build back in a bit and turn her more NNW so the NHC track as it stands should be pretty close. Again if anything I would expect the ridge to be stronger than modeled and the storm to if anything end up a bit further west say Onslow Bay and the west end of the Emerald Isle vs the MHX/Atlantic Beach end.

Remember the 12Z runs on the GFS today that were east of the earlier 06Z runs in the short term then ended up back close to or even a touch WEST of the 06Z once it got later in the run this is what you are seeing actually happen right now

Now this doesnt mean that some other poorly modeled feature cant or wont kick her east it just doesnt appears as this time to be anything in the pipeline to significantly change her hitting somewhere on mainland NC.

Agree completely Ron, and excellent impact graphic Jeremy! Expecting a east shift with the 0z guidance, maybe 20-40 miles, likely spill over to 6 z as the influence wit the front, coupled with the N jog after Abaco is over estimated. Unsure, in fact doubt this gets to 78W, but a Cat 4 by noon tomorrow and 360 heading should end up just east of Topsail.

[downeastnc]

Nitpicking but GFS shifted about 30 miles east, in the middle of MHX and HAT.

Yep that a game changer for inland, but the question is is this a response to the recent north motion or is it a actual trend to take it back to the OBX. Gonna be a long 24-36 hrs for the coast.