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Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

Like most global models, it will not have a good handle on pressure. Track is another story, although the NGP is not very reliable. Either way, we are not talking about big differences in terms of miles, but because of the shape of the NC coast, a few miles one way or the other has huge implications for landfall and who gets what. At this point it's hard to argue with the EURO.

Having lived on the OBX my entire life until one year ago, this storm is the one I waited my whole life for, and now I'm stuck here. Oh well...

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ksstormhunter

ksstormhunter

Posted
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As of 19Z, here is the latest breakdown for Wilmington, NC according to my Smart Model. Looking for precip to begin by 26th at 20Z, with accumulation of precip of 4.21". WInds will begin around around 25 knots at 26th at 20Z, picking up to over 40 knots at 06Z on the 27th. Looking for the strongest winds of around 46-56 knots from 27th at 15Z to 27th at 20Z. Detailed Analysis is uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/KILM.pdf

Cherry Point, NC area seeing precip beginning by 26th at 12Z, with accumulation of precip of 9.67". Winds will begin around 25knts from 27Aug03Z, picking up to over 40 knots after 27Aug12Z. Strongest winds is around 50-60 knots from 27Aug18Z to 27Aug23Z. Detailed anlysis at http://smartwxmodel.net/KNKT.pdf

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Plowable

Plowable

Posted
Posted

It looks like to me, It just took a little jog to the west!! If I were from Myrtle Beach to WIll. I would keep my guard up!

I'm a little concerned that Later on when it doesn't have ANY land interaction we may be in for a huge drop in pressure. Then we might go through a EWRC (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle)and an another jog to the west.

http://www.goes.noaa...S/huvsloop.html

I'm in North Myrtle and have been keeping a very close eye on this storm a lil close to just dismiss.....

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Still highly uncertain, but Onslow Bay is my current thinking, maybe Swansboro, but hell, 12z NOGAPS was into ILM... For a brief explanation of these models, see link below

http://wind.mit.edu/...e/modellist.txt

Good grief, just saw the 12z NOGAPS, quite a bit west from 0z. I saw the prelim. 18z runs in the main model thread and those look to be consolidating west too. You getting out of town?

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

754 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

FARTHER WEST...EXPECT A SHARP CUT-OFF WITH THE RAIN. THIS

DELINEATION WILL BE IN VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WILL HAVE POPS

GRADUATE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE OR SMALL CHANCE IN THE WESTERN TO

CATEGORICAL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

LOL. figures. watching the rain over durham and getting nothing is how this will play out...

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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We're back! The wait has been torture!

Working out the withdrawals over a few brews... Growing increasingly concerned that we may see a period of sig intensification over the next 12-24 hrs, not going to call it RI as the pressure is so low, 950, and not going to drop 25+ mb's, but IR and WV are showing increased organization, finally free of all land, and over a fairly deep warm ocean... 135-145 is not out of the question, and getting more likely imo based on the latest shots, and general flavor this will intensify before reaching ENC. If a hot tower goes up on the SE side here over the next six hours to accompany the improvement on the NW side, lookout! :popcorn:

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Plowable

Plowable

Posted
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I have a friend that is suppose to camp at Ocean lakes down in S Myrtle. Should he head down friday or not?

Thats a good question I would suspect he would be wet i'm not real familliar with that campground . If it was me I would wait until Sunday there calling for like decent wind here 40 to 60 and like 3 to 5" of rain for late Friday into Saturday . And down that end I'm pretty sure they don't have the elevation that we have up on the north end so ponding and flooding could be an issue down that way.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Working out the withdrawals over a few brews... Growing increasingly concerned that we may see a period of sig intensification over the next 12-24 hrs, not going to call it RI as the pressure is so low, 950, and not going to drop 25+ mb's, but IR and WV are showing increased organization, finally free of all land, and over a fairly deep warm ocean... 135-145 is not out of the question, and getting more likely imo based on the latest shots, and general flavor this will intensify before reaching ENC. If a hot tower goes up on the SE side here over the next six hours to accompany the improvement on the NW side, lookout! :popcorn:

I'm at Carolina Beach on vacation till Sat (or Fri now). I'll be on my way back to Raleigh tomorrow. I've been working out the wait by playing golf and eating seafood...simultaneously, I might add. :)

You think there's room for a little more westward track still...say landfall around the NC/SC boarder, or is that totally out of the question?

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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I'm at Carolina Beach on vacation till Sat (or Fri now). I'll be on my way back to Raleigh tomorrow. I've been working out the wait by playing golf and eating seafood...simultaneously, I might add. :)

You think there's room for a little more westward track still...say landfall around the NC/SC boarder, or is that totally out of the question?

ILM is not off the table, but with a weak hand the fold is looking likely. Best guess is around Onslow Bay, with a 48 hr envelope from Surf City to Cape Lookout.

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