Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[FoothillsNC]

GA doesnt get landfalls oftan but then again look at how little coastline they have and how protected it is.....its just hard to get one to hit them. This could be the one though if it is fast enough ( currently moving 22 mph), and can stay east or just brush the east coast of south Florida. Honestly though once the turn its pretty rare for them to bend back west a lot, so I agree the track taking it inland to north GA is a unique one. Of course the weenie in me is all about that eastern NC hit but so far I feel we would most likely be dealing with a Charley or Ernesto like halfacane that would have to track up 95 to give me anything worthwhile, keep in mind I am a wind junkie so anything under 60 mph gust is

Watching the current IR loop I have to wonder if that center isnt about to relocate or at the very least be pulled further north by that huge blob of heavy convection......if so then one would think that at the current forward speed that a shift east in the forecast track would follow.

I agree about the relocation of the developing center. Looking at it now is misleading I think. Eventually it will re-consolidate. There's not much to hinder it overall, but some wobbling is probably about to occur. As for eastern NC, of course the odds highly favor eastern NC, without a doubt. There's a reason GA coast or a peninsula cutting cane hardly ever happens, but eventually its going to. I have no idea if this is going to be the one yet.

I am kind of hoping it hits FL and stalls in SC per earlier runs. We could use the rain. Unfortunately, I tend to believe the ridge builds and sends this into AL and West GA. 36 hours of rain will cause all kinds of pain in the valleys of the hilly areas.

A stall would be hard, just as rare as a GA landfall I think, but with the troughs still far north, it may slow a good bit. Depends on where the trough is at the time, and of course the trajectory and speed of Irene. Like Alberto, a stall would be devastating beyond belief, and I can't recall anything stalling in the Apps for any real length of time , other than say a cutoff low pressure.

[downeastnc]

I agree about the relocation of the developing center. Looking at it now is misleading I think. Eventually it will re-consolidate. There's not much to hinder it overall, but some wobbling is probably about to occur. As for eastern NC, of course the odds highly favor eastern NC, without a doubt. There's a reason GA coast or a peninsula cutting cane hardly ever happens, but eventually its going to. I have no idea if this is going to be the one yet.

A stall would be hard, just as rare as a GA landfall I think, but with the troughs still far north, it may slow a good bit. Depends on where the trough is at the time, and of course the trajectory and speed of Irene. Like Alberto, a stall would be devastating beyond belief, and I can't recall anything stalling in the Apps for any real length of time , other than say a cutoff low pressure.

Ironic in its initalization location

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1898_Georgia_hurricane

[Mencken_Fan]

One thing I haven't read on here or the other forums and web is the fact of how large and strong Irene could get. Its the only game in town, with prime conditions ahead of it. The mitigating factors are the islands so if it goes lengthwise across, obviously thats a weakener, but the stronger it gets the earlier it gets, the better chance that the islands aren't that much of a disruption. The models are forecasting a pretty rare track. I'd like to see that track just for its unique factors. Normally its a smidge south and heads west, or the typical recurve, possibly brushing the eastern Carolinas. Coming into southern or eastern Florida and then into northern GA is RARE. Can't recall one that done that, but I'm sure there has been. Sort of reminds me of the Hugo track but south a little. GA is due a big hit...but we could have said that years ago.

I would note that we often see large/huge proto-hurricanes that shrink rapidly upon consolidation. Pause and think back at all the developing storms we've seen.....and a light bulb should go off. Not saying it's the case this time, but I wouldn't mind having a

C-note for every time I've seen it before.

The cone looks fine to me (exactly what I expected it to be) ---- and if the weather gods are looking for any ironies, allow me to suggest Key Biscayne for a target; for that's where my grandfather retired with his "wicked witch of the east" second wife...whose name was.....

Irene.

[FoothillsNC]

Ironic in its initalization location

http://en.wikipedia....orgia_hurricane

Yep, eerily similar origin and track. Thanks for pointing that one out. Probably this one doesn't cut that far west because of the effects of the nearby incoming front though. There may be a front in the Apps or Tn Valley, or even in the Carolinas which helps the eastern shunt . Who knows, but I doubt it cuts further west than eastern TN much b/c of that. That is, unless it comes in via Gulf coast.

I would note that we often see large/huge proto-hurricanes that shrink rapidly upon consolidation. Pause and think back at all the developing storms we've seen.....and a light bulb should go off. Not saying it's the case this time, but I wouldn't mind having a

C-note for every time I've seen it before.

The cone looks fine to me (exactly what I expected it to be) ---- and if the weather gods are looking for any ironies, allow me to suggest Key Biscayne for a target; for that's where my grandfather retired with his "wicked witch of the east" second wife...whose name was.....

Irene.

Yeah that cone looks fine, and fits the ensemble and statistical models fine. Pretty close cluster actually. Usually we have thousands of miles spread. Anyone is game from Texas to VA, even Mexico if it misses the trough, but odds are shifting by the hour against that.

By the way, the CDO is developing rapidly. The outflow has been pretty large to start, so that falsely gives the impression of a huge system already, but the CDO will tell the story the next few days.

heres the flash loop (hate java)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[Mencken_Fan]

A bit disappointing the center is located at only 14 1/2 degrees north...but considering the IR image below; I wonder which direction that LLC will be directed towards?

And look at the face on that thing.....yikes!

[downeastnc]

Its hard to watch a loop right now as your eye wants to put the center around 16.5N 58W, this is well northeast of the offical position which is on the very SW corner of the huge blob of convection. The latest microwave scan also doesnt show much banding etc so it should be easy for this thing to relocate or even form a totally new center. Again if the center is currently where the NHC has it then this thing is in rough shape and a further west track is favored IMO, at least along and possibly west of the offical NHC plots, if this thing jump NE then I think SE FLorida north would be in the game and it could be a much stronger system at landfall as well, assuming it does landfall at all, although so far the only thing that seems to be in consesus is this isnt most likely going to fish...............

[ATL_Militarypolice]

18z GDFL.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/18zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSL126.gif

Sent from my ADR6400L using Tapatalk

[deltadog03]

ya it looks like the LLC is to the SW of the big deep convection...doesn't mean that it can't "migrate/reform" under that NE ball of convection

[metalicwx366]

Lol our forecast for Friday and Saturday of next week on TWC has 85 and 87 degrees with thundershowers and wind. Then there is a red box on the local on the 8s that says watch the tropics Saturday. Does anyone think this could have a significant impact on Southeast Georgia

[DopplerWx]

if the llc relocates further north under the deep convection, which is likely seeing as the llc found by recon was very broad and weak, then the models could shift further east.

[FoothillsNC]

if the llc relocates further north under the deep convection, which is likely seeing as the llc found by recon was very broad and weak, then the models could shift further east.

Just judging from satellite so far it doesnt' look too likely the southern route through southern Cuba is going to pass. We'll see where we stand with tonights runs. The CDO is starting to really build now and the outflow is very impressive on vapor.

[Herb@MAWS]

I'm fortunate to be heading to N-ern OBX thru next Sunday.

[downeastnc]

Just judging from satellite so far it doesnt' look too likely the southern route through southern Cuba is going to pass. We'll see where we stand with tonights runs. The CDO is starting to really build now and the outflow is very impressive on vapor.

Yeah where is the plane when you need one, sure looks like the center is 16N and just shy of 59W, course the cardinel rule is never do a center location of a weak system based on nighttime sat views lol. If I was a newly hatched llc thats where I would want to be

[WidreMann]

Lol our forecast for Friday and Saturday of next week on TWC has 85 and 87 degrees with thundershowers and wind. Then there is a red box on the local on the 8s that says watch the tropics Saturday. Does anyone think this could have a significant impact on Southeast Georgia

Read more, post less. Also, don't watch the Weather Channel.

[Akeem the African Dream]

Been moving into my new home all day today and saw Irene has formed and could affect us in Central Florida. I know it is never good to be in the bullseye five days out but I also know models have been favoring a Fl hit as opposed to alternate scenarios over recent days.

Can someone give me the lowdown of the days developments and trends? Way to busy to read what I am sure is a multiple page thread now. Quick concise bullet points is all I ask.

I know the intensity is a toss up but what is the thinking regarding track after Hispanola/Cuba? Any Mets care to give odds?

[Cheeznado]

New GFS has gone back east over eastern FL, my main concern is that it will go too far east to give us a good soaking....

[DopplerWx]

00z gfs way east, very interesting.

[Marion_NC_WX]

0z GFS implies a landfall for South Florida with a position near Miami at 114...problem is it takes 3 days for Irene to go from Miami due north to a position near Charlotte...

7 inch QPF bullseye literally 4 miles east of my backyard...

[FoothillsNC]

New GFS has gone back east over eastern FL, my main concern is that it will go too far east to give us a good soaking....

Yes its a little further east but right now, its still possible that it goes west of the model. Overall, in the grand scheme , not much change. There will be a sharp cutoff to the west though, as with all storms that come in like this. If the consensus tomorrow night is all east, then thats a bad sign for areas west of 75 and maybe 77.

[metalicwx366]

Read more, post less. Also, don't watch the Weather Channel.

Well that really helps. You need to chill out. I just asked a freaking question about if Irene will have an impact on Southeast Georgia. My god! I barely even post and is mostly reading everyone else posts.

[jrips27]

Well that really helps. You need to chill out. I just asked a freaking question about if Irene will have an impact on Southeast Georgia. My god! I barely even post and is mostly reading everyone else posts.

If you READ you would find the answer to your question...

[Marion_NC_WX]

Yes its a little further east but right now, its still possible that it goes west of the model. Overall, in the grand scheme , not much change. There will be a sharp cutoff to the west though, as with all storms that come in like this. If the consensus tomorrow night is all east, then thats a bad sign for areas west of 75 and maybe 77.

The biggest thing I saw in that run that could work against getting this system inland is the stalling over South Florida...We can still get that rare big storm "if" Irene can keep some steady forward motion. Having her stall in Florida and then crawl up the coast screams re-curve potential which is climatology for that part of the Atlantic basin.

Under this synoptic pattern you would rather it stall either in the Gulf or on the Panhandle.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

That would suck if the 0z GFS is right. It would leave most of the southeast high and dry with mainly the Carolinas, Florida, and East GA getting good rains. It would be nice if we could get a storm to give a majority of the southeast a good soaking rain, but I guess it would need to move further west for that.

[Blue Ridge]

It's been too long, fellow Southeasterners. I'm not sure if I should be too excited about rainfall potential here; most tropical systems to my east drop little rain. I am thrilled at the prospect of others who are in need of soaking rain receiving a dumping, however. We'll see what happens; I noticed one ensemble member eventually lands the circulation around one hundred miles to my west. That's not anything to hang my hat on, but I can dream.

I'll echo the idea that the circulation reforms (if it hasn't already) in the northernmost group of convection.

[Cheeznado]

The new Canadian and GFS ensemble means are terrible for GA especially western sections. A huge shift east- we may get no rain here at all from it, I hope then Euro is farther west, but I have a very bad feeling......

[MJW155]

Well that really helps. You need to chill out. I just asked a freaking question about if Irene will have an impact on Southeast Georgia. My god! I barely even post and is mostly reading everyone else posts.

Just ignore him.

I have the same thing on my WC graphics. It says "watching the tropics" on Thurday and the forecast says rain/wind both Thurs. and Friday.

[DopplerWx]

per radar the llc has undergone a significant northern shift

[DopplerWx]

nhc just placed the center at 16n.

[Marion_NC_WX]

0z King Euro bring Irene up the East Coast of Florida but the ridge never erodes and she comes ashore Savannah 970 mb between 144 and 168 hours..."Hugo-like" track (about 50 miles farther down the coast)...another run where the EURO puts together that rare Georgia landfall. That would be historic...

EDIT: Storm sitting over Central Georgia at 168 hours...big time issues for the eastern half of Georgia, Western Carolinas, Southern Apps.

EDIT: The remnant low is over Northwestern SC at 192 moving due north...Just to summarize the model run, Irene skirts to the south of Hispanola, cuts across Eastern Cuba and then move northwest from there deepening as it heads for the Georgia coast. The storm moves at a fair clip (unlike the GFS) which IMO is good for anyone who wants to see the rare Georgia track.

If Irene is getting strong as it reaches landfall and moving northwest, we could be talking about a significant strike and inland a ways (winds) with some nasty rain moving along and east of the track.

[WilkesboroDude]

0z King Euro bring Irene up the East Coast of Florida but the ridge never erodes and she comes ashore Savannah 970 mb between 144 and 168 hours..."Hugo-like" track (about 50 miles farther down the coast)...another run where the EURO puts together that rare Georgia landfall. That would be historic...

EDIT: Storm sitting over Central Georgia at 168 hours...big time issues for the eastern half of Georgia, Western Carolinas, Southern Apps.

How far inland is the EURO showing?