Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[Isopycnic]

6z HRWF shifted west to, idk, Ocracoke maybe (was offshore) and the 6z GFDL...well...

Interesting.... That looks like a Jacksonville, NC hit.

[packfan98]

I know it's a different path than Fran but Fran was suPposed to skirt the coast and turned into us through Raleigh any shot of that?

One of the great posts from Phil last night showed shortwave energy that is now modeled to join up with Irene at about the same time it hits the coast. At that point the system is pulled west for an amount of time on the Euro. Now some other models are picking up on this and some have eliminated the eastern movement of the system as it heads north. I would think that if the energy merges sooner than what the Euro shows, that the western wiggle could start sooner and have a greater impact on eastern NC and even the eastern tip of SC. Timing is everything. The hurricane was originally modeled to be really slow and then the models sped it up quite a bit. Who knows what we will see, but I will be watching.

[griteater]

Looks like the 06Z GFS came west again and more northerly on its heading also? If these tracks come close to being right and she is as big as forecasted then we still get strong TS force winds west to I-95 would be my bet.

What do the ensembles show?

Euro ensemble was near Morehead City

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman said he thinks it will hit Cape Lookout, NC as a strong Cat 3 and will move close to NYC as a Cat 2.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/hurricane-irene-to-hit-north-carolina-coast-and-then-long-island-and-connecticut?CID=examiner_alerts_article

[WeatherNC]

Think there is a limit as to how far west this can come, unfortunately I don't think we are there yet...

Consensus is on the move

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah, there is definitely a west trend the last 24 hours.

[packbacker]

It will be funny if everyone get's there west shift but Irene comes in weak, it sure doesn't look that healthy right now, even though it's going through ERC.

[downeastnc]

Well looking more and more like I am going to get within 30-60 miles of the center of this thing....charging all my cameras. Biggest question is how far west does this go I think its not out of the question for a ILM hit still but I bet Onslow Bay to Swansboro is a safer bet right now.

[packbacker]

Look at the GGEM Ensemble, very scary...

[AJF0602]

I was going to go home to see the fireworks (Jacksonville, NC) but I guess it's looking like I can stay here at ECU haha.

Well looking more and more like I am going to get within 30-60 miles of the center of this thing....charging all my cameras. Biggest question is how far west does this go I think its not out of the question for a ILM hit still but I bet Onslow Bay to Swansboro is a safer bet right now.

[deltadog03]

Ya you folks in ENC (hell maybe all of central and eastern NC) need to really pay attention to the short term movement. And...I know yall are for sure....I Still have a ILM or just EAST of there landfall....JMO

[WidreMann]

Think there is a limit as to how far west this can come, unfortunately I don't think we are there yet...

Consensus is on the move

Link?

[NCSNOW]

fyi"s FROM WU

For EastCoast watchers...

H.Irene was headed toward passage over Mt.Pleasant,SouthCarolina ~1day5hours from now ASSUMING IT STAYED SAME HEADING

[WeatherNC]

Link?

under "TRENDS"

http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/Home/TCGuid.htm

[packbacker]

12z NAM is good 70 miles east of 6z GFS, probably 100 miles east of 0z Euro, it's almost a miss off the NC coast, clips Hatteras, still would be something to deal with but nothing like the GFS/Euro are showing.

[downeastnc]

I was going to go home to see the fireworks (Jacksonville, NC) but I guess it's looking like I can stay here at ECU haha.

Yep as we get closer to the event the chances of big moves are slowly dropping but this could still miss to the right but the current trend says get ready eastern NC.....the new big question is whats she gonna be intensity wise and since thats the most difficult thing to forecast I suggest planning for worst case which IMO would be a healthy Cat 3 say 120-125 tops more realistically though a 105-115mph storm is likely. Still one that strong would be the biggest one to hit on this type of track in living memory.

[WeatherNC]

12z NAM is good 70 miles east of 6z GFS, probably 100 miles east of 0z Euro, it's almost a miss off the NC coast, clips Hatteras, still would be something to deal with but nothing like the GFS/Euro are showing.

12z through 48

[deltadog03]

12z NAM is good 70 miles east of 6z GFS, probably 100 miles east of 0z Euro, it's almost a miss off the NC coast, clips Hatteras, still would be something to deal with but nothing like the GFS/Euro are showing.

NAM looks too quick

[WidreMann]

under "TRENDS"

http://wind.mit.edu/...Home/TCGuid.htm

All I see is the invest. There's no Irene on there.

[schlontz]

All I see is the invest. There's no Irene on there.

Top left corner of the page.

[packbacker]

NAM looks too quick

The NAM itself hasn't shifted east, it's pretty much on the same track as it's 0z run, like you said just quicker. Interesting, it seems the other models were a little slower relative to previous runs.

[AJF0602]

Per NHC discussion, they've shifted the track westward.

[downeastnc]

Per NHC discussion, they've shifted the track westward.

Pretty much direct hit on Emerald Isle now, it will be interesting to see if the models continue left or hold serve for the 12Z run if the EURO and GFS come left. Basically landfall looks to be a Cat 3 around 115 mph.

[packbacker]

Per NHC discussion, they've shifted the track westward.

Right through MHX, look out WeatherNC and downeastNC! You going to evacuate?

[Jon]

Southeast posters, what are your thoughts on NGFDL (GFDN) and the GFDL? Looks like the west solution of the GFDN is completely against itself...kind of like NOGAPS did yesterday with it's dramatic west run, thoughts? Does anyone know the reliability tropically of these models?

[Brick Tamland]

Looks a little more west.

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL saying Morehead City is now the forecasted point of landfall Saturday morning.

[packbacker]

WRAL saying Morehead City is now the forecasted point of landfall Saturday morning.

Yeah, not good, but at least it looks like it will be somewhat "weaker" now it's forecasted to be high end Cat2 low Cat3.

[Brick Tamland]

State of Emergency now for all counties east of 95 in NC.

[Marion_NC_WX]

This is what makes the geographical layout of Eastern North Carolina such a pain for forecasting hurricane landalls...

The biggest challenge that the NHC and the local NWS offices will have over the next 2 days is to pinpoint the exact landfall area...I've noticed the NHC still has Irene no farther west than 78W and they also have Irene moving in a NNE motion at landfall.

So...what if Irene made it past 78 West and what if she moves due north (as several of the models have hinted at) at landfall? With the layout of Eastern North Carolina, that could be a huge difference in landfall location and the amount of people being affected by Irene.