Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[shaggy]

Why the heck would I want a hurricane to hit me? I'm just saying most of the models still show it skirting the OBX. That is a trend. Not one or two models showing a little west jog the last couple of runs.

I still think this is going to be a big event for NYC.

How closely have you been following the model runs?

[ryan1234]

I am not saying this thing will trend west. Hell if it can go from the GoM to a fishstorm I guess anything is possible. I would love to go on a chase, but I just don't see myself driving to the Outer Banks. To much of a risk.

[Brick Tamland]

How closely have you been following the model runs?

I am following the trends, not hugging every run.

[WeatherNC]

Not one or two models showing a little west jog the last couple of runs.

This is wrong in every sense, see you are in rare form anticipating -SN... 850's look questionable for RDU, but who knows, maybe a shallow cold pool aloft

I am not saying this thing will trend west. Hell if it can go from the GoM to a fishstorm I guess anything is possible. I would love to go on a chase, but I just don't see myself driving to the Outer Banks. To much of a risk.

Inner banks with a HAT landfall should be more than sufficient for a hurricane gust or two

[Jon]

How is the GF doing these days Jon, ready for winter?

haha she's good! Just started her first year in Pharmacy School. Yes I'm ready, staying up for the Doc a few nights for Irene has really been nostalgic...I can't wait.

[Brick Tamland]

This is wrong in every sense, see you are in rare form anticipating -SN... 850's look questionable for RDU, but who knows, maybe a shallow cold pool aloft

So you're saying there's a chance? YES!

[downeastnc]

I am following the trends, not hugging every run.

So you know that most of the GFS and Euro ensemble members were LEFT of the OP thus making yet more west movement likely? How about the fact that the 10 top analogs for Irene all hit NC or south or fished all together. Look none of us are saying its gonna hit but we can't afford to not keep that very real possibility on the table.

[BIG FROSTY]

Guys I need some help here, My neighbor has a house on corova beach about one mile south of the Va. line. Just got of the phone with him we trying to figure out whether to go board his house up or not? We got to make a decision in the morning... What say you? If the center passes just off shore were we would be on the west side we probably wont go, But if it looks like it will pass over or just west of obx we will leave in the morning... Please give me your thoughts!

Thanks, Rodney

[shaggy]

Guys I need some help here, My neighbor has a house on corova beach about one mile south of the Va. line. Just got of the phone with him we trying to figure out whether to go board his house up or not? We got to make a decision in the morning... What say you? If the center passes just off shore were we would be on the west side we probably wont go, But if it looks like it will pass over or just west of obx we will leave in the morning... Please give me your thoughts!

Thanks, Rodney

I'd be making a road trip if it was my house.....But I wouldn't be boarding it up I'd be riding it out there!

In all seriousness he'd be smart to take the drive and secure his home.

[WeatherNC]

Guys I need some help here, My neighbor has a house on corova beach about one mile south of the Va. line. Just got of the phone with him we trying to figure out whether to go board his house up or not? We got to make a decision in the morning... What say you? If the center passes just off shore were we would be on the west side we probably wont go, But if it looks like it will pass over or just west of obx we will leave in the morning... Please give me your thoughts!

Thanks, Rodney

3 quarter inch board, yes, needs to batten down the hatches... 12z euro had the center passing about 20 miles east of the NC-VA boarder, a sustained NE wind would pile up some junk in the friends trunk! BF wassup!!!

[ksstormhunter]

Just ran my output model for the Cherry Point, NC area. As of 02Z, showing precip beginning 26Aug16Z, with winds picking up above 25 knots after 27Aug04Z. After 19Z, winds pick up over 40knots. Detail output uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/KNKT.pdf

[NCSNOW]

Storm has definetly expanded on sat and looking at latest windfield charts. If Irene stayed on the same heading w/o turning she would make landfall around Jax/Daytona Beach. Crunch time is approaching over the next 12-18 hours to see how much her heading gets turned North. The longer this delays, the more problematic it becomes for eastern NC.

[Sqwearl]

Storm has definetly expanded on sat and looking at latest windfield charts. If Irene stayed on the same heading w/o turning she would make landfall around Jax/Daytona Beach. Crunch time is approaching over the next 12-18 hours to see how much her heading gets turned North. The longer this delays, the more problematic it becomes for eastern NC.

Do we need to bring our guard back up in SC? I just want to make sure the family is prepared.

[Bozart]

Do we need to bring our guard back up in SC? I just want to make sure the family is prepared.

Never let your guard down in SC when there's a Bahamas hurricane moving NW.

That said, NHC's IR loop overlaid with tropical points seems to show a storm pretty much conforming to the forecasted track, at this time.

[NCSNOW]

Never let your guard down in SC when there's a Bahamas hurricane moving NW.

That said, NHC's IR loop overlaid with tropical points seems to show a storm pretty much conforming to the forecasted track, at this time.

It's right on Q. Fork in the road comes tomorrow. So far I see no compelling reason to go against the grain(NHC forecasted track atm). Time to make hay. As others have stated it will only take a minor tweak and eastern NC and espeacilly the OBX will be in for a rough ride.. I'm interested to see how strong Irene gets and if her eye passes to the left/west of OBX. It would change the landscape out there perm...!

[jburns]

It's right on Q. Fork in the road comes tomorrow. So far I see no compelling reason to go against the grain(NHC forecasted track atm). Time to make hay. As others have stated it will only take a minor tweak and eastern NC and espeacilly the OBX will be in for a rough ride.. I'm interested to see how strong Irene gets and if her eye passes to the left/west of OBX. It would change the landscape out there perm...!

I would imagine a new inlet or two would be cut through.

[griteater]

The Euro Op is spitting out CAT 4 like surface pressures at NC landfall (~ Hatteras), in the Hurricane Andrew category. History tells us this is overdone with hurricanes commonly weakening as they approach the NC coast (Gloria, Diana, and others). NHC is also forecasting increasing shear and some weakening prior to NC arrival. Just wondering if the Euro is on to something or if it's a common model bias with canes...

[phil882]

Updated thoughts for anyone that is interested... I'm still thinking we will have a direct Outer Blanks landfall first before a second landfall along the NJ shoreline... very similar to the ECWMF.

http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/08/24/irene-now-a-major-hurricane-still-a-major-threat-to-the-outer-banks-and-the-northeast-invest-90l-almost-a-tropical-cyclone/

[Jon]

From the Model Disco thread...

GFS appears to have initialized too far Southwest

Mad Cheese, on 22 August 2011 - 11:49 PM, said:

The pattern still isn't looking any more pleasent, there nothing to push it west and nothing to stop it from going OTS, it beter gain longitude while it still can.

My guess,10% shot at US EC landfall. 100% of a 4 day media hypefest from FL to ME.

thoughts? Does this mean we basically trash this run completely?

[Stormsfury]

From the Model Disco thread...

thoughts? Does this mean we basically trash this run completely?

other people are chiming in and said the 00z init. seems reasonable

[Midnight Moon]

Does this mean we basically trash this run completely?

Check out responses to Mad Cheese on same thread.

[Dunkman]

I just zoomed in on some of the 0z GFS frames, looks like landfall between Ocracoke and Hatteras at 72h and it exits pretty much right over Nags Head at 77h.

[downeastnc]

I just zoomed in on some of the 0z GFS frames, looks like landfall between Ocracoke and Hatteras at 72h and it exits pretty much right over Nags Head at 77h.

So maybe a tiny bit west of the 18Z which had it just skirting Hat, lets see what the 00Z Euro does it seems to be the trend setter.

[Dunkman]

So maybe a tiny bit west of the 18Z which had it just skirting Hat, lets see what the 00Z Euro does it seems to be the trend setter.

Yeah it's amazing how similar this run was to the 12z Euro, GFS was ~30 miles farther west crossing the outer banks and they look almost identical farther north.

[JQPublic]

Hugo's pattern was much more clear cut. The North Atlantic Ridge was 594-596 dm, and well west of where the current Azores High is located, plus an upper low had cut off and moving SW across GA/FL providing a corridor to take Hugo straight to the Carolinas. It was however expected to make a "more northerly turn" and up until about 10 pm that night, the landfall point was originally expected to be Myrtle Beach. it was clear at 10 pm it was going to make landfall right around Charleston.

If I was to make a guess right now. between ILM and OBX has the highest danger of a strike IMHO.

The ridge over TX has retrograded to the west now more centered in NM, the weakness between the Azores High and the NM ridge is also further west by about 200 miles. the former 98L is playing out some havoc with regards to the SW extent of that ridge in which really doesn't look to be much of a factor but it's wreaking havoc on the SW ridge extents' strength of the Azores high (on the guidance)

Nice story. I wonder what the forecasts were for Fran the night before. Was it progged to make landfall in Wilmington or further east? Was the real bust with that one, not the landfall but how far inland she went?

[downeastnc]

Yeah it's amazing how similar this run was to the 12z Euro, GFS was ~30 miles farther west crossing the outer banks and they look almost identical farther north.

To many more of these 30 mile jogs west and we gonna have issues lol......so many things to watch with this crazy setup......heck on this GFS run I would only be 70 miles or so from the center, granted its the weakside but still prolly good for sustained TD force and gust 50-70 in the stronger bands. Also this GFS run seemed more west south of here and if the s/w doesnt kick as hard or the storm is a little slower than the latest GFS run shows that NE turn will be smoother more NNNE and this thing could be closer to a Bertha track.

Not out of the woods by a long shot east of I95.......

[Jon]

To many more of these 30 mile jogs west and we gonna have issues lol......so many things to watch with this crazy setup......heck on this GFS run I would only be 70 miles or so from the center, granted its the weakside but still prolly good for sustained TD force and gust 50-70 in the stronger bands. Also this GFS run seemed more west south of here and if the s/w doesnt kick as hard or the storm is a little slower than the latest GFS run shows that NE turn will be smoother more NNNE and this thing could be closer to a Bertha track.

Not out of the woods by a long shot east of I95.......

I'm glad I'm in Raleigh...I want to see it get close, just not IMBY

But seriously I'm amazed at how many 30-50 mile jogs like you said are taking place run to run, it's like we're tracking a nor'easter or something....come onnnnn west trend.

[downeastnc]

I'm glad I'm in Raleigh...I want to see it get close, just not IMBY

But seriously I'm amazed at how many 30-50 mile jogs like you said are taking place run to run, it's like we're tracking a nor'easter or something....come onnnnn west trend.

This thing is gonna keep folks guessing right up till landfall, the farthest west the NHC plots have it is 77.4 W and its darn close to 76W right now, so thats only 90 miles or so east of the point the NHC says its not gonna cross.......if its gonna stay east of there its gotta start going pretty much NNW right now......of course it crossign that line doesnt really mean anything down the road. Then again the longer it takes to get north the better chance it has of missing the trough and thus a much flatter turn prolly bringing it through most of eastern NC....

Thats the problem with this and most storms so many varibles and tiny changes in any of them can have such huge ramifications......

[jburns]

This thing is gonna keep folks guessing right up till landfall, the farthest west the NHC plots have it is 77.4 W and its darn close to 76W right now, so thats only 90 miles or so east of the point the NHC says its not gonna cross.......if its gonna stay east of there its gotta start going pretty much NNW right now......of course it crossign that line doesnt really mean anything down the road. Then again the longer it takes to get north the better chance it has of missing the trough and thus a much flatter turn prolly bringing it through most of eastern NC....

Thats the problem with this and most storms so many varibles and tiny changes in any of them can have such huge ramifications......

: 24.2°N 76.0°W at 2am advisory

still moving NW at 12

[Stormsfury]

Nice story. I wonder what the forecasts were for Fran the night before. Was it progged to make landfall in Wilmington or further east? Was the real bust with that one, not the landfall but how far inland she went?

To be honest I don't remember but I think overall, Fran might have been a decently forecasted storm in regards to landfall. the fact that Fran just kept barreling inland caught a lot of people offguard.

My first guess for a landfall point right now stands at Morehead City, NC

Also of note, the wind field on Irene continues to expand.

Hurricane force winds extend out 70 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend out 255 miles from the center.