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Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

18z GFS runs right over hatteras and hits most of the OBX, about 30 miles west of 12z run at that point.

Yeah, a west shift compared to 12z, landfall on Hatteras proper, SE of the point... Seems to split the 12z ECMWF and 18z NAM, so well within the current envelope. QPF has increased sig for ENC, now putting down 5" plus here, with that special 9" mark along the inner banks. Safe to say the east bleed has clotted over the past 12-18hrs.

Look for more server crashes over the next 24-48hrs as MA and NE weenies rejoice!!! :lmao:

gfs_pcp_096m.gif

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Yeah, a west shift compared to 12z, landfall on Hatteras proper, SE of the point... Seems to split the 12z ECMWF and 18z NAM, so well within the current envelope. QPF has increased sig for ENC, now putting down 5" plus here, with that special 9" mark along the inner banks. Safe to say the east bleed has clotted over the past 12-18hrs.

Look for more server crashes over the next 24-48hrs as MA and NE weenies rejoice!!! :lmao:

Are we calling it a west trend yet or do we wait till the 00Z? Looks like a few more west jogs like last run and its gonna be a Onslow Bay to Emerald Isle hit.

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IWC

IWC

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Are we calling it a west trend yet or do we wait till the 00Z? Looks like a few more west jogs like last run and its gonna be a Onslow Bay to Emerald Isle hit.

That was my concern the other night. I asked if the trending east was like what we see in the winter time but I am not on much in the summer to know if that would be the case. I guess were all going to see how it turns out in the next 48 hours.

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Moose4

Moose4

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I've got friends a bit south of Boston who are clenching up over Irene, and I can't blame them. Obviously it's a relative non-event here in the Bull City (relative to getting pimpslapped by a Cat 2, of course), but folks up in RI/CT/MA better keep their eyes open. I guess at this point it's not even going to be a TS Hanna out this way.

Ocracoke evacuations for residents are tomorrow, right?

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
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Weather NC I'm glad Irene is coming to your neighborhood (eastern NC) because you will be tracking it like a hound and I for one value your input always. Your write up was well stated and it seems you pointed out how important strength would be over the next 24 hours affecting the influence she would feel from the 1st trof swinging by and resist the east tug. I beleive an eye wall replacement cycle is in infinite stages and typically when storms come out of them they rapidly intensify. However these ERC can take up to as long as 20 hours in which case hurricanes strength wise tend to hold steady until ERC is complete. I like you feel strongly that 78 west is almost a gurantee that NC gets a landfall. No way to avoid it and it's a benchmark for NC that usually has always worked well.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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The trend is currently your friend, your one more west jog from the western eyewall, and two from a direct hit from a potential Cat 3

Just made the beer run, aside from burning the brush pile, which I will do tomorrow, feel pretty good about this one. Picked up a couple six packs of Blue Moon and a case of Corona (4 Sat/maybe some friends over?). Planning on staying up for my first 0Z suite of the season, and 86'ing the 1st 6-pack of Moon... 1/2 down, still 5 1/2 to go! Going to be a long night! :drunk: Hopefully worth it :bike: west :sun:

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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Just made the beer run, aside from burning the brush pile, which I will do tomorrow, feel pretty good about this one. Picked up a couple six packs of Blue Moon and a case of Corona (4 Sat/maybe some friends over?). Planning on staying up for my first 0Z suite of the season, and 86'ing the 1st 6-pack of Moon... 1/2 down, still 5 1/2 to go! Going to be a long night! :drunk: Hopefully worth it :bike: west :sun:

Going to be close and could be the biggest hit here since Hazel if its a strong. Cat 3. Downtown Greenville is exactly 100 miles west of Cape Hatteras so another 50-60 mile west and well it be a touch windy, any further west and it would be very bad....ECU is in now too so total population in town over 100k folks now.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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Why do people think this is going to do anything to NC besides skirt the OBX?

Because A) we don't hug the models we look at trends. B ) the current trend is back west and it only takes a sshift of 50-60 miles to put most of eastern NC in hurricane condition C) the GFS has known bias to break down or under do ridges as we get closer to the event you would expect to see a westward correction which I think we are.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

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Because A) we don't hug the models we look at trends. B ) the current trend is back west and it only takes a sshift of 50-60 miles to put most of eastern NC in hurricane condition C) the GFS has known bias to break down or under do ridges as we get closer to the event you would expect to see a westward correction which I think we are.

I don't see a west "trend."

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shaggy

shaggy

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I just don't see a real trend yet. Sounds like wishcasting to me.

Guess we will see what happens with the 00z but if the west "trend" continues then areas east of I-95 could be in for a good cane. Only thing we can do right now is watch and see what happens with the upcoming runs.

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Jon

Jon

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Wishcasting is thinking the GFS has the track right 3-4 days out.

lmao +1

I've been gone all day, any big west trends besides NOGAPS? I'm taking a look at all of them now but if someone has some quick cliffnotes that would be great.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Brick is the same during tropical threats as he is during snow threats. Nothing is going to happen!!! mby is gonna get screwed again!!11! Storm Cancel!!11!

Why the heck would I want a hurricane to hit me? I'm just saying most of the models still show it skirting the OBX. That is a trend. Not one or two models showing a little west jog the last couple of runs.

I still think this is going to be a big event for NYC.

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