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Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

Hugo's pattern was much more clear cut. The North Atlantic Ridge was 594-596 dm, and well west of where the current Azores High is located, plus an upper low had cut off and moving SW across GA/FL providing a corridor to take Hugo straight to the Carolinas. It was however expected to make a "more northerly turn" and up until about 10 pm that night, the landfall point was originally expected to be Myrtle Beach. it was clear at 10 pm it was going to make landfall right around Charleston.

If I was to make a guess right now. between ILM and OBX has the highest danger of a strike IMHO.

The ridge over TX has retrograded to the west now more centered in NM, the weakness between the Azores High and the NM ridge is also further west by about 200 miles. the former 98L is playing out some havoc with regards to the SW extent of that ridge in which really doesn't look to be much of a factor but it's wreaking havoc on the SW ridge extents' strength of the Azores high (on the guidance)

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packbacker

packbacker

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Euro was definitely west through hour 72 and it looked like it was going to plow through Morehead City but than from 72 to 78 it shifted NE to just off the OBX and than after OBX it shifted a smidge NW and is now heading due north. Not sure why it did the NE wiggle between 72-78, had it not done that it would have been game over for MHX and OBX.

It literally curved around the OBX and than heads a smidge NW towards DC/BWI and makes landfall there. I bet the MA thread is going nuts.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Hugo's pattern was much more clear cut. The North Atlantic Ridge was 594-596 dm, and well west of where the current Azores High is located, plus an upper low had cut off and moving SW across GA/FL providing a corridor to take Hugo straight to the Carolinas. It was however expected to make a "more northerly turn" and up until about 10 pm that night, the landfall point was originally expected to be Myrtle Beach. it was clear at 10 pm it was going to make landfall right around Charleston.

If I was to make a guess right now. between ILM and OBX has the highest danger of a strike IMHO.

The ridge over TX has retrograded to the west now more centered in NM, the weakness between the Azores High and the NM ridge is also further west by about 200 miles. the former 98L is playing out some havoc with regards to the SW extent of that ridge in which really doesn't look to be much of a factor but it's wreaking havoc on the SW ridge extents' strength of the Azores high.

Its the little things that models miss or get wrong that can really change this thing in the coming days. Now I have to go to work till midnight so I will try to not murder my post I make on my phone.......

My gut tells me the west trend is starting as the things you mention above start to get better sampled just how far west it goes it going to be critical for us in NC and even for you guys on the SC coast.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Euro was definitely west through hour 72 and it looked like it was going to plow through Morehead City but than from 72 to 78 it shifted NE to just off the OBX and than after OBX it shifted a smidge NW and is now heading due north. Not sure why it did the NE wiggle between 72-78, had it not done that it would have been game over for MHX and OBX.

It literally curved around the OBX and than heads a smidge NW towards DC/BWI and makes landfall there. I bet the MA thread is going nuts.

Sounds like what the Canadian did, a good bit west through 60, about to slam MHX, than goes around the OBX, and goes in around RI. Has support, and when looking at the plots from the SFWMD, not the best models to have in your corner, but when adding the 12z GEM and EC, support for a westward adjustment through 60 hrs, then status quo. Note the split around 31N, 4 take it into ENC...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

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sctvman

sctvman

Posted
Posted

This storm has already made a major impact for HS football in the Carolinas. Nearly every game east of I-95, north of I-26, and well up into NC and probably VA has been moved up to Thursday. For most teams in SC, it is their season openers.

http://www.witn.com/sports/headlines/High_School_Football_Games_Moved_To_Thursday_128265088.html

http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=135278939843814&topic=725 (Wilmington)

http://schsl.org/

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Kind of like the GFS in that it is more west earlier in the run but ends up close to previous runs when it matters most? Seems to be the trend for today.

Euro was definitely west through hour 72 and it looked like it was going to plow through Morehead City but than from 72 to 78 it shifted NE to just off the OBX and than after OBX it shifted a smidge NW and is now heading due north. Not sure why it did the NE wiggle between 72-78, had it not done that it would have been game over for MHX and OBX.

It literally curved around the OBX and than heads a smidge NW towards DC/BWI and makes landfall there. I bet the MA thread is going nuts.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Sounds like what the Canadian did, a good bit west through 60, about to slam MHX, than goes around the OBX, and goes in around RI. Has support, and when looking at the plots from the SFWMD, not the best models to have in your corner, but when adding the 12z GEM and EC, support for a westward adjustment through 60 hrs, then status quo. Note the split around 31N, 4 take it into ENC...

http://www.sfwmd.gov...20model%20plots

I would be very worried if I were you and points east. The Euro run would cause great problems for the BWI/Philly/NY folks.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Kind of like the GFS in that it is more west earlier in the run but ends up close to previous runs when it matters most? Seems to be the trend for today.

What's alarming on the Euro is it actually moves a smidge west of north once it hits the NC/VA border, that would be really bad for people north of us. If it does that at the SC/NC border than who knows.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

I would be very worried if I were you and points east. The Euro run would cause great problems for the BWI/Philly/NY folks.

HTF does a major hurricane coming up from the south miss NC, yet make landfall in DE? If this storm is Large and deap enough, that brief jog around the OBX will be smoothed, with landfall around Emerald Isle, watch... :popcorn:

Lots of typos today, on the iPad, trying to catch them but a few are slipping by :yikes:

Thanks, I was one of the smart ones, who prepped... Only supply still missing is the blue moon, yard and house is about is good as it gets, got some gas, propane, food and cash. Honestly I know what the storms can do as far as human impact and while it is a catch 22 being a weather buff, I would be lying if parrot me is hoping for a track onshore around Onslow Bay.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

HTF does a major hurricane coming up from the south miss NC, yet make landfall in DE? If this storm is Large and deap enough, that brief jog around the OBX will be smoothed, with landfall around Emerald Isle, watch... :popcorn:

Lots of typos today, on the iPad, trying to catch them but a few are slipping by :yikes:

That would be nuts for sure! Thank goodness this isn't a winter storm, that would be unbearable.

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AJF0602

AJF0602

Posted
Posted

HTF does a major hurricane coming up from the south miss NC, yet make landfall in DE? If this storm is Large and deap enough, that brief jog around the OBX will be smoothed, with landfall around Emerald Isle, watch... :popcorn:

Lots of typos today, on the iPad, trying to catch them but a few are slipping by :yikes:

Thanks, I was one of the smart ones, who prepped... Only supply still missing is the blue moon, yard and house is about is good as it gets, got some gas, propane, food and cash. Honestly I know what the storms can do as far as human impact and while it is a catch 22 being a weather buff, I would be lying if parrot me is hoping for a track onshore around Onslow Bay.

Onslow Bay would bring it right over my house haha. How west do we need this hurricane to track to better the odds of a NC landfall?

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Afternoon thoughts, envelope has not changed much, maybe west 20 miles from this morning. Topsail to 50 miles east of HAT... Kind of feels like we have been down this road before

post-382-0-77508200-1314218952.jpg

Why? A couple reasons, at-least from what I can see. Last night I was growing increasingly concerned about this sw dropping down in the NW flow through IL/IN in about 24 hrs. It is riding the first trough in question. The guidance yesterday showed the embedded sw coming SE to apps, where some influence could be seen edging the system east. Today, this sw is modeled to be weaker, but the question mark surrounding the amplitude of the first trough is still open, as it will have some influence with Irene, but how much. Next peace is the W ATL ridge, which guidance over the past several years, specifically the GFS, has been to quick to break down this time of year. Thinking the first trough does give an easterly component, but not as much as expected as it lifts out over ME, allowing the cyclone to resume north. This is going to be a very large storm, and a cold front that stays well to our north should have minimal influence, and be guided by the weakness in the ridge. Depending what this does off the EC of FL here in about 24 hrs in terms of strength, could negate sig any easterly component down the road. (omitted second trough as that is for the MA and NE to worry about)

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Bozart

Bozart

Posted
Posted

I know its only the NAM but it has definitly shifted west.

Looks like it's slowed down by about 6 hours, too. Question for those in the know: How much credence to put into NAM's precip totals? That's one hella rain shield west of the track in eastern NC.

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted

NAM now has the bend back to the NW at the end of the run. Still thinking some manifestation of that is likely as the trough will most likely leave Irene behind.

Yeah it has a much more north moving track without a nne curve. Its the nam and we all know its not the best model to track tropics but if other models follow suit with less nne motion then thats a big issue for areas east of I-95

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Looks like it's slowed down by about 6 hours, too. Question for those in the know: How much credence to put into NAM's precip totals? That's one hella rain shield west of the track in eastern NC.

nam_p60_084s.gif

Cut those totals in half...

Updated my thoughts after the paint project, bottom of last page with some disco as to thinking behind it. :)

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

NAM now has the bend back to the NW at the end of the run. Still thinking some manifestation of that is likely as the trough will most likely leave Irene behind.

Yeah, when looking at the time lapse it looks for a second it's about to mow into just north of ILM. Pretty scary.

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