Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[downeastnc]

Well, those have always been my two personal faves cuz of the sizzlin'-hawt porn they produce.

00Z

The 18Z

[Bozart]

Chrissakes...the storm is a thousand miles away and everyone here acts like they know where it will go.

Like who? If we're keenly aware of anything, it's that we don't know where it will go. But we can see a pattern to the adjustments, which over-all have not been random: east, east, east, east, east, east, east..... That isn't necessarily predictive, either...but it does merit considering. This board is for discussing such patterns.

The last 20 model runs have been wrong....but of course the latest one is correct.

Who says that? You keep making that accusation, and I honestly don't know what you mean. The models are an indispensable if far-from-perfect tool. So I repeat my question: what are we going to do? Not look at them?

Have you all lost your minds?

I have no idea what you are talking about.

[Mencken_Fan]

Mencken_Fan is a post-doctorate in tropical meteorology and is in line to become the next NHC director.....

Actually he is trolling of course.

I don't appreciate the insult.

And my intellect covers a hell of a lot more than just weather......

[Lookout]

Chrissakes...the storm is a thousand miles away and everyone here acts like they know where it will go.

The last 20 model runs have been wrong....but of course the latest one is correct.

Have you all lost your minds?

This is your last chance, either cut out the attitude or lose your posting privileges.

[NCSNOW]

Current steering

[strongwxnc]

Man... This thread is full of folks who want to be right.

Such as it is on a weather forum

Looks like the Charlotte area will remain dry this weekend..

So time for the Warrior Dash on Sunday !!!

[Plowable]

Being a transplant here to transient town I just have a question I understand the dynamics of the storm in regards to dealing with nor easters up home . So this thing is not making a landfall here per se' I get that ,for you guys that live here or close by (North Myrtle Beach) if current track holds what kind of conditions am I to expect here along the beach . There really not saying to much other then trop storm conditions so with that said does that mean up to cat one winds excessive rainfall? I have everthing in place chainsaws, generator , fuel, cash , water etc etc and the plans to get my daughter on the other side of the waterway and on to Charlotte ( if this thing was to turn left) are complete and in place . I'm just curious as this will be my first real Hurricane or near miss depending how you want to put it ...

[airmarci]

Cat 3, 115mph per NHC

[WeatherNC]

Odds of a NC landfall seem to be fading this morning, likely <40%... Excellent agreement that this will pass within about 50 miles of HAT, but we are still talking day 3.5, so a 50 mile pass to the west is still on the table, just less likely. MHX introduced hurricane conditions possible into the grid for PGV. Thinking we will need a center pass either through the Sound, or inner banks for that to happen. 0z ECMWF is just offshore, maybe 25 miles, and confines the worst to the outer and inner banks (not many permanent residents). NHC is similar to the european, yet still on the left side of the envelope, which in my best judgement goes from about Harkers Island to 50 miles east of Hatteras. Still expecting some more small shifts for the next 24-36 hrs, and as mentioned, 50 miles either would have big implications. Center tracking through the Inner Banks would do some serious damage to the HWY 17 corridor (good bit of population) from Jacksonville up to Norfolk.

Also, keep an eye of 78W 30N, some of the models still want to bring Irene inside that point. If that actually happens, the odds of missing a landfall decrease sig. If she only gets as far west as 76 or so, a miss appears likely given past cases.

[deltadog03]

The ridge has built back in over the W ATL this am....That is suppose to break down again later today. ILM folks....just keep an eye...wouldn't be surprised if this comes close to yall

[Cold Rain]

Still moving WNW.

[eyewall]

Odds of a NC landfall seem to be fading this morning, likely <40%... Excellent agreement that this will pass within about 50 miles of HAT, but we are still talking day 3.5, so a 50 mile pass to the west is still on the table, just less likely. MHX introduced hurricane conditions possible into the grid for PGV. Thinking we will need a center pass either through the Sound, or inner banks for that to happen. 0z ECMWF is just offshore, maybe 25 miles, and confines the worst to the outer and inner banks (not many permanent residents). NHC is similar to the european, yet still on the left side of the envelope, which in my best judgement goes from about Harkers Island to 50 miles east of Hatteras. Still expecting some more small shifts for the next 24-36 hrs, and as mentioned, 50 miles either would have big implications. Center tracking through the Inner Banks would do some serious damage to the HWY 17 corridor (good bit of population) from Jacksonville up to Norfolk.

Also, keep an eye of 78W 30N, some of the models still want to bring Irene inside that point. If that actually happens, the odds of missing a landfall decrease sig. If she only gets as far west as 76 or so, a miss appears likely given past cases.

Well written and well said and yes the 78W, 30N benchmark is one to watch.

[Brick Tamland]

Going to be interesting to see what this has in store for NYC.

[SN_Lover]

Here are some points from MHX that might put model viewers at ease.

[airmarci]

[Bozart]

Being a transplant here to transient town I just have a question I understand the dynamics of the storm in regards to dealing with nor easters up home . So this thing is not making a landfall here per se' I get that ,for you guys that live here or close by (North Myrtle Beach) if current track holds what kind of conditions am I to expect here along the beach .

That's an interesting question without an easy answer. I've been 100 miles west of a hurricane with the sun shining and hardly a breeze; and I've been 100 miles west of a mere tropical storm and had a mighty windy, rainy night. Much depends on the atmospheric set-up through which the storm is moving (frontal interactions, etc.), how physically expansive the storm is, and of course, how close to you it finally tracks, which we can't truly know yet to a certainty. Best advice right now is just be prepared for whatever, and it sounds like you are; and keep an eye on your own local forecast products.

[griteater]

Being a transplant here to transient town I just have a question I understand the dynamics of the storm in regards to dealing with nor easters up home . So this thing is not making a landfall here per se' I get that ,for you guys that live here or close by (North Myrtle Beach) if current track holds what kind of conditions am I to expect here along the beach . There really not saying to much other then trop storm conditions so with that said does that mean up to cat one winds excessive rainfall? I have everthing in place chainsaws, generator , fuel, cash , water etc etc and the plans to get my daughter on the other side of the waterway and on to Charlotte ( if this thing was to turn left) are complete and in place . I'm just curious as this will be my first real Hurricane or near miss depending how you want to put it ...

The Hurricane Center puts out maps showing probabilities for Hurricane force / Tropical Storm force winds based on the storm's strength and size. Follow those as the storm approaches and that should give you a good idea - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083814.shtml?tswind120#contents

[ryan1234]

Irene is really looking like a NE storm. RH and Mass look to be the sweet spots. It's too bad because I was looking forward to making a trip to the NC coast but its looks like even they wont have to much excitement. The exception possibly being the OBX but I won't be making that journey. I would like to keep my car.

[downeastnc]

Well written and well said and yes the 78W, 30N benchmark is one to watch.

Folks seem to forget that just a small change while this thing is approaching NC can have HUGE ramifications. If this thing turns back north before say 75.5-76W it will bring hurricane conditions to just about everyone from around this area east.. So until the center of Irene is due south of Cape Lookout headed NNE I will be watching, there is little chance the current forecast track is going to be the exact track since the error in this range is still large.

Really gonna have to just watch and wait now, so many things can and will cause small changes in track forecast---speed faster or slower could be a real issue if it is slower it gets further west IMO faster is more east, remember the NHC doesnt bring it west of 77W once it crosses that point the chances of landfall start to go up, if it makes it to 78W the chances of a bonafide hit to the mainland parts of NC go up quite a bit I would think.

[packbacker]

We have a good shot, at least west of I-95 of having a semi nice weekend, breezy, little rain.

[calculus1]

From the NHC:

THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE SHOWS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS BY 96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[packbacker]

Folks seem to forget that just a small change while this thing is approaching NC can have HUGE ramifications. If this thing turns back north before say 75.5-76W it will bring hurricane conditions to just about everyone from around this area east.. So until the center of Irene is due south of Cape Lookout headed NNE I will be watching, there is little chance the current forecast track is going to be the exact track since the error in this range is still large.

Really gonna have to just watch and wait now, so many things can and will cause small changes in track forecast---speed faster or slower could be a real issue if it is slower it gets further west IMO faster is more east, remember the NHC doesnt bring it west of 77W once it crosses that point the chances of landfall start to go up, if it makes it to 78W the chances of a bonafide hit to the mainland parts of NC go up quite a bit I would think.

The 12z NAM has it at 28N 77W but it ends up being a complete whiff as it heads NNE from there. At 30N it's at 76.5W.

[Plowable]

Thanks for the reply I will,, I guess like you said another 24 to 36 hrs will tell the tale but i'm ready, momma did'nt raise a fool lol. With them talking possible cat 4 did'nt know if that makes a diff in terms of residual effects of outter bands I've only been here two years this coming Oct so I'm still trying to figure out the whole weather scene for this area ...

That's an interesting question without an easy answer. I've been 100 miles west of a hurricane with the sun shining and hardly a breeze; and I've been 100 miles west of a mere tropical storm and had a mighty windy, rainy night. Much depends on the atmospheric set-up through which the storm is moving (frontal interactions, etc.), how physically expansive the storm is, and of course, how close to you it finally tracks, which we can't truly know yet to a certainty. Best advice right now is just be prepared for whatever, and it sounds like you are; and keep an eye on your own local forecast products.

[ryan1234]

The 12z NAM has it at 28N 77W but it ends up being a complete whiff as it heads NNE from there. At 30N it's at 76.5W.

I still don't understand why some people are still holding on hope that Irene is somehow going to totally go against what every models is saying. It's not like we have a couple models pointing to a westward track. Every model is in a general consensus with Irene effecting mostly the OBX of NC. Even that could be a stretch given current steering.

[packbacker]

I still don't understand why some people are still holding on hope that Irene is somehow going to totally go against what every models is saying. It's not like we have a couple models pointing to a westward track. Every model is in a general consensus with Irene effecting mostly the OBX of NC. Even that could be a stretch given current steering.

I don't either, all the models are so closely clustered together. I still think the OBX need to sweat this one out, and of course people just west of the OBX will have some stuff to deal with but the odds are this will not make landfall in NC.

[Brick Tamland]

I think it is going to barely miss the OBX. What is concerning me more is what it does when it heads north. I really think this could be a huge event for NYC.

[SNO]

The models have been adjusting with Irene.

Last week = Gulf Coast

Last weekend = Florida

Monday = South Carolina

Wednesday = North Carolina

Next = Goes EAST of OBX

My guess North Myrtle Beach will see a few gusts of wind, a few tropical downpours, and Broadway at the Beach will remain open

[jburns]

I think it is going to barely miss the OBX. What is concerning me more is what it does when it heads north. I really think this could be a huge event for NYC.

The news media will make it seem so, but nah. Storm will be east of the city. What wind there is will be down river into the bay. Probably no worse than a good noreaster.

[Plowable]

Laughing breathing a big sigh of releif now .... Don't forget prolly some good shell hunting early Fri and Sat morning

My guess North Myrtle Beach will see a few gusts of wind, a few tropical downpours, and Broadway at the Beach will remain open

[ryan1234]

I don't either, all the models are so closely clustered together. I still think the OBX need to sweat this one out, and of course people just west of the OBX will have some stuff to deal with but the odds are this will not make landfall in NC.

Exactly. It's time to stick a fork in Irene, for NC of course. Maybe next time around will prove to be a bit more interesting. The wave off the Africa coast looks really interesting.