Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[Mencken_Fan]

Just a test to see how videos might work here............................my favorite song (Caribbean Queen.)

http://video.search....caribbean+queen

[ryan1234]

I guess everyone on here who said this was going to be a fishcane were right. Too bad I was looking forward to maybe venturing to the NC coast. Maybe the wave that just came off the coast of Africa will turn into something more interesting.

[jrips27]

Irene seems to be tightening up on satellite. Good looking eye starting to form. Might be some dry air intrusion issues though.

Also looks like she's wanting to take a little jog west...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir2-l.jpg

[WeatherNC]

I guess everyone on here who said this was going to be a fishcane were right. Too bad I was looking forward to maybe venturing to the NC coast. Maybe the wave that just came off the coast of Africa will turn into something more interesting.

OK, great post, thanks for the update!

[ryan1234]

OK, great post, thanks for the update!

No need to get catty. Just speaking the truth. It's time to cut our losses and hope next time around proves to be a bit more interesting. I have never seen models go from a GoM hit to a fishstorm that possibly effects the NE. The NE might be the spot to be this time around!

[HurricaneJosh]

No need to get catty. Just speaking the truth. It's time to cut our losses and hope next time around proves to be a bit more interesting. I have never seen models go from a GoM hit to a fishstorm that possible effects the NE.

Actually, the cyclone is probably going to have a major impact on Outer Bank towns. It will be very significant for Carolinians in its path.

[eyewall]

Actually, the cyclone is probably going to have a major impact on Outer Bank towns. It will be very significant for Carolinians in its path.

Josh most here were hoping for a much more inland track into NC that is where this was coming from. OBX is essentially a no-go unless you can swim very well and don't mind losing your car with a direct hit by a major.

[HurricaneJosh]

Josh most here were hoping for a much more inland track into NC that is where this was coming from. OBX is essentially a no-go unless you can swim very well and don't mind losing your car with a direct hit by a major.

Of course. I understand that. I won't be chasing it in the Carolinas for exactly this reason, and I'm heartily disappointed. More than anyone here, I wanted a nice, red-meat, Myrtle Beach or Wilimington landfall.

That having been said, describing it as a fish or a nonevent is kind of misleading-- and quite a misrepresentation to those who will be in its path.

[ryan1234]

Josh most here were hoping for a much more inland track into NC that is where this was coming from. OBX is essentially a no-go unless you can swim very well and don't mind losing your car with a direct hit by a major.

Couldn't of said it any better myself. I would of loved to seen a tropical system across the whole state, but alas it was not meant to be this time. We still haven't reached the peak of the season so I think we all just need to relax and see what mother nature throws out us next time!

[eyewall]

Of course. I understand that. I won't be chasing it for exactly this reason, and I'm heartily disappointed. More than anyone here, I wanted a nice, red-meat, Myrtle Beach or Wilimington landfall.

That having been said, describing it as a fish or a nonevent is kind of misleading-- and quite a misrepresentation to those who will be in its path.

Oh definitely this is a serious situation for them if this scenario verifies. Hopefully people in evac zones heed the orders as they come out. I feel the pain also as I wanted my "red meat" too after last years chase for the Earl Teaser. I have yet to experience a true hurricane core (Gloria can't be considered that).

[Mencken_Fan]

Actually, the cyclone is probably going to have a major impact on Outer Bank towns. It will be very significant for Carolinians in its path.

And you know this because you follow every model shift like the rest of the lemmings?

[HurricaneJosh]

Oh definitely this is a serious situation for them if this scenario verifies. Hopefully people in evac zones heed the orders as they come out. I feel the pain also as I wanted my "red meat" too after last years chase for the Earl Teaser. I have yet to experience a true hurricane core (Gloria can't be considered that).

I know that craving all too well.

And you know this because you follow every model shift like the rest of the lemmings?

Do you have a crystal ball which tells you something different than what the NHC is saying (with good confidence) and what the tightly-clustered model consensus indicates? If so, please share your insights-- love to hear them!

[WeatherNC]

Oh definitely this is a serious situation for them if this scenario verifies. Hopefully people in evac zones heed the orders as they come out. I feel the pain also as I wanted my "red meat" too after last years chase for the Earl Teaser.

Even here Jeremy, with a track through the sounds and given the size-strength would do some serious damage from Jacksonville to Norfolk. That is why I kind of the op, no need to throw misinformation out like that, expect that from NJ posters, but not NC, or the SE for that matter. Talking about a wave coming off Libya, when there is a more urgent threat, sorry, bs...

In other news, this little sw showing up on the 0z GFS over IL/IN at 60 hrs has my attention. Think Phil mentioned it in his update, EC as well as GFDl have it, something to watch.

[eyewall]

I know that craving all too well.

Do you have a crystal ball which tells you something different than what the NHC is saying (with good confidence) and what the tightly-clustered model consensus indicates? If so, please share your insights-- love to hear them!

Mencken_Fan is a post-doctorate in tropical meteorology and is in line to become the next NHC director.....

Actually he is trolling of course.

[HurricaneJosh]

In other news, this little sw showing up on the 0z GFS over IL/IN at 60 hrs has my attention. Think Phil mentioned it in his update, EC as well as GFDl have it, something to watch.

Thoughts Re: that?

[WeatherNC]

And you know this because you follow every model shift like the rest of the lemmings?

Probability is a very useful tool dude, see NHC graphics illustrating such.

[downeastnc]

Oh definitely this is a serious situation for them if this scenario verifies. Hopefully people in evac zones heed the orders as they come out. I feel the pain also as I wanted my "red meat" too after last years chase for the Earl Teaser. I have yet to experience a true hurricane core (Gloria can't be considered that).

Cape Lookout is exactly 72 miles SE of me and the current NHC track brings the center at its closest point about 40-50 miles east of me as it crosses the mouth of the Pamlico River as a major so I think even places inland as far as I95 are gonna see gust to 40-50 and gust to hurricane force are gonna be possible here if this thing tracks exactly as forecast.

Also me and Shaggy are members of a hunting club that is 6 miles NE of Bath, it has a 1500 acre block of fields ( roughly 1-2 miles across ) its totally open and could be a great spot to chase to but getting back might be a issue. I figure the center will pass by about 30 miles east of that land so it could be ahhhh interesting its the weakside but we might catch sustained Cat 1-2 conditions. We havent decided if we are stupid brave enough to do that yet though....need it to speed up 6 hrs.

[Bozart]

And you know this because you follow every model shift like the rest of the lemmings?

Not a very constructive attitude. I was telling local friends more than a week ago that a Southeastern hurricane threat was developing, when Irene was little more than a patch of clouds. I'm no expert; I was just watching the models and discussions about them. That kind of early heads-up is a remarkable scientific achievement in its own right. Following model outputs doesn't make us "lemmings." Sometimes the models are right and sometimes wrong, but what are we going to do? Not look at them?

[WeatherNC]

Thoughts Re: that?

Unsure, Either Phil or LEK mentioned it, think the EC was more pronounced over the SE with it later, which resulted in more of a northward component after NC compared to OTS. One would have to assume looking at this 60 hr panel, some influence would take place, no idea what though, nudge either way maybe. Odds are the current track through the Pamlico Sound will not verify. Basing this on track error for a day 4. Talking with one of the more respected on air mets here in the east over the past two days, we are in agreement this is likely coming in between ILM and Cape Lookout, with Topsail Sneeds Fary a choice. We knew there was a limit as to how far east this could go, and we saw that trend stop today, even the 11pm NHC track was adjusted about 10-15 miles west through the Pamilco Sound.

[Bozart]

New GFS stays well offshore NC. The east-east-east story continues.

[eyewall]

Unsure, Either Phil or LEK mentioned it, think the EC was more pronounced over the SE with it later, which resulted in more of a northward component after NC compared to OTS. One would have to assume looking at this 60 hr panel, some influence would take place, no idea what though, nudge either way maybe. Odds are the current track through the Pamlico Sound will not verify. Basing this on track error for a day 4. Talking with one of the more respected on air mets here in the east over the past two days, we are in agreement this is likely coming in between ILM and Cape Lookout, with Topsail Sneeds Fary a choice. We knew there was a limit as to how far east this could go, and we saw that trend stop today, even the 11pm NHC track was adjusted about 10-15 miles west through the Pamilco Sound.

What concerns me about that sort of track is the sound flooding as the water gets pushed inland with those easterlies.

[superjames1992]

New GFS stays well offshore NC. The east-east-east story continues.

Yep. Also, it keeps all of the precip east of I-95, basically.

Looks like the GFS has Irene making landfall in Rhode Island, though.

That's a crapload of rain, if nothing else, for a lot of folks on the east coast.

[HurricaneJosh]

New GFS stays well offshore NC. The east-east-east story continues.

Ugh, it's just painful. I've really grown to hate this system. One of the worst c*ckteases of the decade. I hope it dies in 70-kt shear.

[Dunkman]

At this rate Bermuda is going to need hurricane warnings in a few days. Once that low pressure south of greenland that just showed up on the GFS starts getting stronger and moves south, along with a little help from 98L, there will be nothing to stop it from heading ENE right at it.

[downeastnc]

Ugh, it's just painful. I've really grown to hate this system. One of the worst c*ckteases of the decade. I hope it dies in 70-kt shear.

LOL this would be epic failure so much for XX number of GFS runs in a row showing a hit on the US.

I still have this gut feeling this thing comes further west than the GFS shows if the Euro runs and doesnt move any further east then I dont know WTH the NHC is gonna do especially with the GFDL coming back west a bit last run.

If she keeps moving west like she is and gets to 77-78W you better get your ass to MHX. Heck even if the current NHC track is correct MHX would be close to getting into the center, if not it will be in the immediate western eyewall of a 115mph Cat 3 the entire time.

[HurricaneJosh]

Unsure, Either Phil or LEK mentioned it, think the EC was more pronounced over the SE with it later, which resulted in more of a northward component after NC compared to OTS. One would have to assume looking at this 60 hr panel, some influence would take place, no idea what though, nudge either way maybe. Odds are the current track through the Pamlico Sound will not verify. Basing this on track error for a day 4. Talking with one of the more respected on air mets here in the east over the past two days, we are in agreement this is likely coming in between ILM and Cape Lookout, with Topsail Sneeds Fary a choice. We knew there was a limit as to how far east this could go, and we saw that trend stop today, even the 11pm NHC track was adjusted about 10-15 miles west through the Pamilco Sound.

Interesting post-- I missed it before. Thank you.

Even after the 00Z GFS run, this met and you still envision a landfall between Wilmington and Cape Lookout? I'd love it if you end up being right, but I don't feel as optimistic about such a scenario.

[Mencken_Fan]

Not a very constructive attitude. I was telling local friends more than a week ago that a Southeastern hurricane threat was developing, when Irene was little more than a patch of clouds. I'm no expert; I was just watching the models and discussions about them. That kind of early heads-up is a remarkable scientific achievement in its own right. Following model outputs doesn't make us "lemmings." Sometimes the models are right and sometimes wrong, but what are we going to do? Not look at them?

Chrissakes...the storm is a thousand miles away and everyone here acts like they know where it will go.

The last 20 model runs have been wrong....but of course the latest one is correct.

Have you all lost your minds?

[downeastnc]

Looking at another site and apparently the HWRF has also come back west a bit basically went from 50 miles off Hat to right inside the OBX so a jump west of a degree or so from last run. So the GFDL and the HWRF have both come back west a bit, and seem to be bucking the trend.

[HurricaneJosh]

Chrissakes...the storm is a thousand miles away and everyone here acts like they know where it will go.

The last 20 model runs have been wrong....but of course the latest one is correct.

Have you all lost your minds?

I agree with the gist of what you're saying, but as a few people pointed out last night, it's not this run but the trend, which has been pretty heartily E for the last week. If the models were windshield wiping, I'd agree with you and say we have no idea where it's going. But the fact that the trend has been right right right for days now does kind of hint at a big ol' c*ckteasin' miss.

Last night, I really fought the dudes who were calling a fish for the exact reason that you cite-- it's one lousy model run. Twenty-four hours later, I'm out of ammo. It looks like a clear trend.

Believe me, I hope I'm wrong! I'd love to be wrong here.

[HurricaneJosh]

Looking at another site and apparently the HWRF has also come back west a bit basically went from 50 miles off Hat to right inside the OBX so a jump west of a degree or so from last run. So the GFDL and the HWRF have both come back west a bit, and seem to be bucking the trend.

Well, those have always been my two personal faves cuz of the sizzlin'-hawt porn they produce.