Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[packbacker]

Well the 18z GFS is east of previous runs through 60. I would guess it will miss NC, hopefully.

[NEGa]

That's like burning down your house because you're cold.

lol. i am not even sure that makes any sense

Then how do you suggest we get the rain? We need it badly and if it was going to come in the form of a tropical system so be it.

exactly. tropical systems moving through the se really add up the rain fall totals here. especially after long, dry periods. we dont need a few showers here and there. we need several inches over a widespread area. one reason it was so wet here for several years in the early 2000s was due to a couple of tropical systems each year. when those stopped moving through the drought kicked in

[Solak]

From Twitter

WeatherBugMedia WeatherBug Our @WeatherBug site in Turks and Caicos got a 107mph wind gust! ow.ly/i/gbdN

[strongwxnc]

This is the kind of East trend we need in the winter....Well some of us....

[Mencken_Fan]

All of them?

Yep.

And as far as Irene goes, the forecasting has been no better than it was during my childhood in the 1950s when the U.S. Weather Bureau would have said: "there's a storm out there, we'll keep an eye on it, and holler if we think it threatens anyone."

Irene has made fools of everyone....and for the next few days will probably continue doing so.

[jburns]

All Hail the Widreman!!!

Its not all Widre. I assume he uses the same model as he does for winter forecasting.

Global Eeyore

[downeastnc]

I am pretty sure Irene is going to make fools out of folks before its all said and done. Lots of folks latching on to 4 day positions, last GFS run didn't move that much so the inner and outer banks still in play and if the GFS has the trough to strong at all then eastern NC and the tidewater could end up on the wrong side of a cat 3.

[POWERSTROKE]

Irene will shift west some and hit NC, hopefully it won't but time will tell

[POWERSTROKE]

Its not all Widre. I assume he uses the same model as he does for winter forecasting.

A broke clock is right twice a day---- he has been so accurate the past year including all the misses on all of the snow including Christmas

Global Eeyore

[WeatherNC]

Starting to see some warming with the center, Bahamas are about to get slammed.

[packbacker]

It's amazing how lucky we are going to get, with such a healthy hurricane that will get stronger and a big high pressure out in the atlantic to keep this from curving out to sea and for it to not slam into North Carolina with the worst of being clipping the OBX.

[WeatherNC]

It's amazing how lucky we are going to get, with such a healthy hurricane that will get stronger and a big high pressure out in the atlantic to keep this from curving out to sea and for it to not slam into North Carolina with the worst of being clipping the OBX.

This would have to pass about 100-150 miles east of HAT for an OBX clip, landfall along the Crystal Coast, passing through the sound would be a sig event for ENC. I remember Floyd passing 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral, and where we were at in Brevard County, just inland, was a pretty fun night. Folks who are focusing on the exact track at this range are setting themselves up for disappointment. Odds favor a deviation from the current forecasted track, yet likely within the cone, which still encompasses a good bit of NC real estate. 48 hrs out and strong agreement this is passing offshore, until then, picking up around the yard and taking the early steps to be prepared and not be the idiot whose sh!t ends up all over the neighborhood.

[downeastnc]

GFDL at the 18Z was maybe 50-75 miles WEST of the 12Z and put a hurting on us in eastern NC. I read the 18Z nogaps also came back west (yes I know its the nogaps) so maybe folks jumping the guncwriting thiscthing off huh.

Chris we gonna chase it if it does run the sounds?

[HurricaneJosh]

GFDL at the 18Z was maybe 50-75 miles WEST of the 12Z and put a hurting on us in eastern NC. I read the 18Z nogaps also came back west (yes I know its the nogaps) so maybe folks jumping the guncwriting thiscthing off huh.

Chris we gonna chase it if it does run the sounds?

Interesting. I had all but given up on the idea of a NC chase today. But those trends are mildly interesting. Can't wait to see the 00Z Euro and GFS.

[eyewall]

Interesting. I had all but given up on the idea of a NC chase today. But those trends are mildly interesting. Can't wait to see the 00Z Euro and GFS.

Josh I wouldn't rule out Morehead City just yet in my own view. Anyway on a side note Gloria was the one storm I have been in the center of on LI. I was in western suffolk in WI at the time (I was 8 years old but remember well).

[WeatherNC]

GFDL at the 18Z was maybe 50-75 miles WEST of the 12Z and put a hurting on us in eastern NC. I read the 18Z nogaps also came back west (yes I know its the nogaps) so maybe folks jumping the guncwriting thiscthing off huh.

Chris we gonna chase it if it does run the sounds?

If the western side of the eyewall runs the sounds, yeah... But if the center does, Grimesland may be the spot, between Greenville and Washington for our neck. Just looked over the GFDL run, and traversing the inner banks like that, one would need to be on the OBX for the best wind, but areas between 11 and 17 would take one hell of a hit from the western side, if, if, that intensity is remotely close.

[downeastnc]

Interesting. I had all but given up on the idea of a NC chase today. But those trends are mildly interesting. Can't wait to see the 00Z Euro and GFS.

Honestly u should at least lock in a room at MHX, downside is they can get oh so close then jog east. However a strong cat 3 coming in middle of Emerald Isle with you in MHX would be epic. It could miss you even further west ILM for instance and u still get hammered. It goes 40 miles east of you though and.......

[DaculaWeather]

All of them?

LOL!!! It made 4 of them!

[HurricaneJosh]

Josh I wouldn't rule out Morehead City just yet in my own view. Anyway on a side note Gloria was the one storm I have been in the center of on LI. I was in western suffolk in WI at the time (I was 8 years old but remember well).

Honestly u should at least lock in a room at MHX, downside is they can get oh so close then jog east. However a strong cat 3 coming in middle of Emerald Isle with you in MHX would be epic. It could miss you even further west ILM for instance and u still get hammered. It goes 40 miles east of you though and.......

Oh, absolutely.

I mentioned in my chase thread that I have a room reservation in Morehead City, in one of the higher locations in the town (20 ft), and I'm keeping it for now. It would be a very dramatic location to ride out a direct hit from a N-moving, 100-kt 'cane.

[blueheronNC]

Oh, absolutely.

I mentioned in my chase thread that I have a room reservation in Morehead City, in one of the higher locations in the town (20 ft), and I'm keeping it for now. It would be a very dramatic location to ride out a direct hit from a N-moving, 100-kt 'cane.

You won't get a "porn-tight" eyewall at that latitude. I think Hugo and maybe Hazel were the farthest north a hurricane has maintained good structure. Everything in NC usually suffers from boundary layer issues. If there were ever such a thing as a weak 100 mph wind...

[HurricaneJosh]

You won't get a "porn-tight" eyewall at that latitude. I think Hugo and maybe Hazel were the farthest north a hurricane has maintained good structure. Everything in NC usually suffers from boundary layer issues. If there were ever such a thing as a weak 100 mph wind...

Oh, dude, I hear you. Not to harsh on NC 'canes, but that's one of the reasons that NC has never been fantasy chase turf for me-- cuz it really doesn't get the "porn-tight" eyewalls that I like. Honestly, I'm not even sure Hazel had a totally hawt structure, either, as it was starting to transition even as it made landfall at the SC/NC border. That having been said, a major is a major, and I'm just so starved right now.

You know which NC 'cane was totally hawt but didn't come ashore in that state? Diana 1984. It strengthened to a small, high-end Cat 3 just off Cape Fear-- it looked amazing-- but it really unraveled before coming ashore.

[HurricaneJosh]

I think of NC as the Baja Peninsula of the NATL. Like the Baja, NC gets a lot of 'canes-- like, all the time-- but very rarely anything really high-end.

But like I said, even a big, broad 100-kt 'cane right now would be awesome-- and documenting that coming ashore near Morehead City would be guaranteed awesomeness.

[shaggy]

I think of NC as the Baja Peninsula of the NATL. Like the Baja, NC gets a lot of 'canes-- like, all the time-- but very rarely anything really high-end.

But like I said, even a big, broad 100-kt 'cane right now would be awesome-- and documenting that coming ashore near Morehead City would be guaranteed awesomeness.

I am working this weekend but have already told them if it hits they can suck it cause i'm not going in to work. Morehead is a great town to catch a cane in because it doesn't flood from storm surge bad. You can be 2 miles from the beach and really get hammered. Hope it happens for you man cause if it happens for MHX then i'm only 65 miles north of there and I get it also.

Not sold on anything right now. Was curious about that little move the gfs was showing with a short NE movement then back to N after that. The GFDL staright N motion seems plausible.

[Isopycnic]

I am working this weekend but have already told them if it hits they can suck it cause i'm not going in to work. Morehead is a great town to catch a cane in because it doesn't flood from storm surge bad. You can be 2 miles from the beach and really get hammered. Hope it happens for you man cause if it happens for MHX then i'm only 65 miles north of there and I get it also.

Not sold on anything right now. Was curious about that little move the gfs was showing with a short NE movement then back to N after that. The GFDL staright N motion seems plausible.

Morehead is OK but us 70 between there and New Bern will flood leaving you stranded out there for a while. It is really all 1-2' above a swamp out there.

[airmarci]

[Mencken_Fan]

Interesting. I had all but given up on the idea of a NC chase today. But those trends are mildly interesting. Can't wait to see the 00Z Euro and GFS.

'Evening Josh. I live near the terminus of I-40 and its disjointed linkage to the main connector to Wrightsville Beach. Think I could make a few bucks setting up a beer and lemonade stand there as all the chasers go by?

Don't know if you've ever been to Cape Fear, N.C. but it's not a bad place. For urbane people, it's like a trip into the past (total culture shock when I moved here from D.C.) Here's a few pics for ya:

WHERE I LIVE:

ME IN FRONT OF MY APT: (yea, I've been tracking storms for a while, lol.)

And Hurricane Isabel's 12' swells here.....while we were not even close to the storm:

CHEERS!

[blueheronNC]

'Evening Josh. I live near the terminus of I-40 and its disjointed linkage to the main connector to Wrightsville Beach. Think I could make a few bucks setting up a beer and lemonade stand there as all the chasers go by?

Don't know if you've ever been to Cape Fear, N.C. but it's not a bad place. For urbane people, it's like a trip into the past (total culture shock when I moved here from D.C.)

There's a neighborhood just across the intracoastal from Wrightsville Beach where I've always wanted to chase. It's near Airlie Gardens and has a significant elevation rise over the marshes (probably a good 20-30 feet), but at the same time with a clear and exposed view out over the marshes. I'd chase either there or from a downtown Wilmington parking garage.

Doesn't look like it'll happen for this one, though.

[Mencken_Fan]

There's a neighborhood just across the intracoastal from Wrightsville Beach where I've always wanted to chase. It's near Airlie Gardens and has a significant elevation rise over the marshes (probably a good 20-30 feet), but at the same time with a clear and exposed view out over the marshes. I'd chase either there or from a downtown Wilmington parking garage.

Doesn't look like it'll happen for this one, though.

i think I know the area you're speaking of....and have always thought it a great place to view a hurricane. The homes sit on a heavily treed bluff with long walkways downhill to their docks. Just behind the barrier island, it has, as you say, 20-30' elevation. You could watch a frigging tsunami come in there.

[phil882]

Hey guys... I don't know how many of you actually venture out to the main Irene thread, but I've updated my thoughts in my blog for anyone interested.

http://philstropical...l-on-the-table/

[eyewall]

Hey guys... I don't know how many of you actually venture out to the main Irene thread, but I've updated my thoughts in my blog for anyone interested.

http://philstropical...l-on-the-table/

I know a lot of people are avoiding posting in the main thread because of the nazi atmopshere in terms of moderation. Anyway good write up and I think this is looking like more of a letdown for NC chasers who were looking for the ILM track.