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Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Easily the funniest comment I have ever read on these boards.

I've been reigning myself in due to the serious situation but I didn't even try and fight this one. I figured it would be deleted by now though.

What I should have said was; Ocrakoke has to start evacuating early because the only way off the island is by ferry and they will stop running long before the storm actually arrives.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

I've been reigning myself in due to the serious situation but I didn't even try and fight this one. I figured it would be deleted by now though.

What I should have said was; Ocrakoke has to start evacuating early because the only way off the island is by ferry and they will stop running long before the storm actually arrives.

Nothing like some pre game before winter... Damn, I must be getting old! I posted that and did not even think twice, need to get my brain back in the game. In other news, Canadian is slightly west so it appears the east bleeding has stopped, at-least for the moment.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

OT: Did anyone else just feel that earthquake??

Edit: I'm on the third floor of our math/science building and the floor just kinda rolled up and down. I was sitting in my office chair and felt it just begin to slightly bounce up and down. Several other of my colleagues all came out of their offices having felt it too. I believe that's the first time that I have ever felt an earthquake large enough to notice it. Cool!

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

12z EC shifts ever so slightly east, landfall around MHX, then passing through the Inner Banks

927 off the VA Capes, one hell of a storm here if that verifies!

When you look at the 6 hour time-lapse it's heading NW right over the Bahama's and than once it's about 27N it turns and heads due north and than at 30N it jogs NE about 25-50 miles and than heads due north again over the OBX and than right at the NC/VA line it jogs back west 25 miles or so and than heads due north, almost like it's following the coastline.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

When you look at the 6 hour time-lapse it's heading NW right over the Bahama's and than once it's about 27N it turns and heads due north and than at 30N it jogs NE about 25-50 miles and than heads due north again over the OBX and than right at the NC/VA line it jogs back west 25 miles or so and than heads due north, almost like it's following the coastline.

Yeah, just saw that on the 6 hour panels, eye passes over the Pamlico Sound, HAT gets brushed with the eastern side of the eye wall. Pretty good consensus with the 12z suite, with passage over or near the OBX. Would not take much of a shift right or left to sig change impacts on sensible weather. 96-108 hrs, which is narrowing the cone slightly.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Just got an update from Allan Huffman. Seems the OBX is still in danger. But it is also interesting to note Irene could be very close to NYC as a hurricane.

This will be a huge weather story and could bring very serious repercussions from North Carolina to Maine. To put it bluntly the 12z ECMWF is a historic hurricane hit from the Outer Banks through the northeast coast. We could see 6-10 inches of rain and wind gusts to 100mph along the major cities of the east coast including Philly, New York, and Boston If the ECMWF is correct. This is a big deal and people need to take it seriously

The track philosophy appears to be coming in line so while certainly shifts west and/or east can and likely will occur, I don’t expect a huge shift west to threaten say Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina. And while a scenario where the center may stay off shore is possible, it seems very difficult to me that this will not at least hit the Outer Banks and Cape Cod. I did adjust my track closer to the coast of the mid-Atlantic.

I expect Irene to reach category 3 status in the next 12-18 hours and category 4 status in 36-48 hours. Irene may strike the North Carolina coastline as a borderline category 3/4 hurricane and possibly remain as a category 2 hurricane as it moves just off the mid-Atlantic coast and likely be a 1 or 2 when it threatens New York City and Cape Cod.

Again for many populated cities along the coast this is a potentially big event and you need to prepare."

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/hurricane-irene-may-deal-historic-blow-from-nc-outer-banks-to-nyc-to-boston?CID=examiner_alerts_article

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Yeah, just saw that on the 6 hour panels, eye passes over the Pamlico Sound, HAT gets brushed with the eastern side of the eye wall. Pretty good consensus with the 12z suite, with passage over or near the OBX. Would not take much of a shift right or left to sig change impacts on sensible weather. 96-108 hrs, which is narrowing the cone slightly.

And it's going to be tough for a model to predict 60-72 hours exactly when it starts curving. If this curves a little later than ILM gets slammed, if it curves a little earlier than it just brushes the OBX. Although, all the models seem to be lined up pretty good now, so I think it takes out the MYR up I-95 hit.

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NCStateMMY

NCStateMMY

Posted
Posted

A key to figuring out there this will hit in the SE is to see where is goes through the Bahamas. A track through the middle near Nassau and over Grand Bahama, an ILM strike is more likely. If Irene stays on the eastern fringe of the Bahamas, then a Cape Hatteras brushing would seem more likely.

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