Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[Bozart]

Anyone think the previous NHC track was a little ballsy?

Just seemed a classically conservative baby step from four days out. The whole, incremental eastward migration of forecasts has seemed as much, lagging the models by a day or so.

[wake4est]

It's so hard to predict tracks when the storm is expected to make a dramatic curve. Tiny delays in turning can make epic differences in trajectories. I really hope it continues the eastern trend.

[Tyler Penland]

That's like burning down your house because you're cold.

Then how do you suggest we get the rain? We need it badly and if it was going to come in the form of a tropical system so be it.

[Brick Tamland]

Then how do you suggest we get the rain? We need it badly and if it was going to come in the form of a tropical system so be it.

From clouds.

You don't need a destructive hurricane for rain. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

[Hugo]

From clouds.

You know where you find lots and lots of clouds?

Hurricanes.

[SNO]

Myrtle Beach breathes a sigh of relief.

[calculus1]

You know where you find lots and lots of clouds?

Hurricanes.

Okay, that is just too funny. I had to come out of the shadows to note that. I'll go back to watching for a while, now...

[packbacker]

Well don't look now but through 60hr the 12z GFS is definitely slower and SW of 6z GFS, not sure what happens after this but it will be a different run.

[Brick Tamland]

You know where you find lots and lots of clouds?

Hurricanes.

Yes, but the rain is not worth the destruction a hurricane can bring.

Ocracoke Island officials are telling visitors and residents to leave.

[Cold Rain]

Heard that Elizabeth Gardner on WRAL said that what we need to push Irene east isn't present, though.

What did she mean by that?

[packbacker]

Through 72hr the GFS is a tick west of 0z Euro, but about 3 hours quicker too.

[Tyler Penland]

From clouds.

You don't need a destructive hurricane for rain. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Tell Texas that.....

And I haven't seen rain in nearly 3 weeks and before that it wasn't much, so I'm willing to take all I can get right now. The next week (and likely more after that) doesn't look to promising either.

[eyewall]

Here is my updated discussion:

http://www.sandhillswx.com

[Brick Tamland]

What did she mean by that?

I don't know. Said the mechanisms were not there to steer it east. I don't put much stock in her, though. She's no Fish.

[Hugo]

Myrtle Beach breathes a sigh of relief.

Horry County emergency management is still at Opcon 4 and local media is stressing that models are subject to change.

Not much relief. MYR is a little too close to the middle of the cone to be happy yet.

[Brick Tamland]

Tell Texas that.....

And I haven't seen rain in nearly 3 weeks and before that it wasn't much, so I'm willing to take all I can get right now. The next week (and likely more after that) doesn't look to promising either.

So you would be ok with flooding and homes destroyed as long as you get some rain? I don't get it.

[Bozart]

From clouds.

You don't need a destructive hurricane for rain. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Cut it out, Brick. This is a board for storm lovers. And part of our climatologically expected rains come via tropical systems. And our wishes, pro or con, don't make any difference. So don't pee on our cake if some of us are trying to make the best of a potentially bad situation.

[WeatherNC]

It's so hard to predict tracks when the storm is expected to make a dramatic curve. Tiny delays in turning can make epic differences in trajectories. I really hope it continues the eastern trend.

This is not a dramatic curve in the typical sense where we have a bonafied front, sweeping it quickly off to the NE. That scenario is much more common in September, as the northern stream begins dropping farther south. At-least wrt our latitude, the storm is feeling a weakness between the ridges, and slipping through, with the NE tug via the frontal influence commencing above 36N, i.e. NC... Couple quick thoughts before the 12z runs, this system simply maintianing right now due to dry air entrainment from hisponola, as well as light shear is important, since it could allow a further westward component, compared to system undergoing sig intensification. If 100-110mph is the strength through the Bahamas, followed by deepening thereafter around 48hrs off the EC of FL, thinking this may bring the guidance west with time. Furthermore, noted in the main model thread that last year, guidance had an overly right bias with recurves, and as mentioned earlier, if this crosses 78W, going to be very hard to miss NC without a pretty strong front sweeping it to the NE before landfall, which in this case is absent.

[packbacker]

Through about hour 72 the GFS was a hair SW of 0z GFS but than it curved more NE as it got closer to NC coast and at 108 the eye appears to be just missing the OBX, which is good.

[downeastnc]

Horry County emergency management is still at Opcon 4 and local media is stressing that models are subject to change.

Not much relief. MYR is a little too close to the middle of the cone to be happy yet.

LOL no doubt if this thing goes in a ILM as a strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4 with a 30 mile wide eye, MYR gonna get at least Cat 1 conditions I would think. Love how people lock on to 5 day plots like they are actually where the storm is going to go......

[Tyler Penland]

So you would be ok with flooding and homes destroyed as long as you get some rain? I don't get it.

First off I do NOT enjoy seeing homes destroyed or flooded. All I'm saying was that this hurricane was yet another good shot for rain that didn't happen.

[frazdaddy]

Cut it out, Brick. This is a board for storm lovers. And part of our climatologically expected rains come via tropical systems. And our wishes, pro or con, don't make any difference. So don't pee on our cake if some of us are trying to make the best of a potentially bad situation.

Ditto

[Cold Rain]

I don't know. Said the mechanisms were not there to steer it east. I don't put much stock in her, though. She's no Fish.

She's pretty good though. But alas the models continue to track it east, so that's a good bet at this point. Still not sure what she could be talking about.

[HWY316wx]

If this thing keeps tending East it's not even going to touch land. Looking at the GFS ensemble members and the other independent modeling... if we just trusted the models I would say this thing could swing in close to the OBX and then swing up the coast but never actually make land fall.

[downeastnc]

This is not a dramatic curve in the typical sense where we have a bonafied front, sweeping it quickly off to the NE. That scenario is much more common in September, as the northern stream begins dropping farther south. At-least wrt our latitude, the storm is feeling a weakness between the ridges, and slipping through, with the NE tug via the frontal influence commencing above 36N, i.e. NC... Couple quick thoughts before the 12z runs, this system simply maintianing right now due to dry air entrainment from hisponola, as well as light shear is important, since it could allow a further westward component, compared to system undergoing sig intensification. If 100-110mph is the strength through the Bahamas, followed by deepening thereafter around 48hrs off the EC of FL, thinking this may bring the guidance west with time. Furthermore, noted in the main model thread that last year, guidance had an overly right bias with recurves, and as mentioned earlier, if this crosses 78W, going to be very hard to miss NC without a pretty strong front sweeping it to the NE before landfall, which in this case is absent.

I think the Euro run today is going to be huge, if it stays put with a ILM landfall it will cause all kinds of grief for the NHC. Again this latest run of the GFS has a pretty hard recurve given the setup and there was that problem last year with Earl and how the models kept trying to recurve it to soon.....folks also have to keep in mind we are talking 4-5 days out the chances that the last GFS run was exactly what the storm is going to do is pretty small I think, if the Euro hold serve at ILM then a blend with the GFS would give us a landfall at Onslow Bay up towards MHX which would be a pretty large hit for eastern NC.

[strongwxnc]

Great disco folks!! Good warm up for winter disco

Also I think brick meant to say......

From clouds.

You don't need a destructive hurricane for rain. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face Spiderface .

Get'em Steve.

[WeatherNC]

One of the few places it takes 3-4 days to get everybody off, i.e. tourists...

Evacuation Orders For Ocracoke

[NCStateMMY]

Has anyone seen the strength forecast for it on the 06Z HWRF and 06Z GFDL? I know if is probably overdone, but 139 kt winds at 108 hrs for the HWRF, 132 kt at 114 hrs on the GFDL. This is really starting to make me nervous.

HWRF

GFDL

[WeatherNC]

Canadian noticeably west through 60hrs when compared to the 0z run, also about 5mb stronger, 988 east of Cape Canaveral

12z http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gif

0z http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif

[jburns]

One of the few places it takes 3-4 days to get everybody off, i.e. tourists...

Evacuation Orders For Ocracoke

Whore.