Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[Isopycnic]

If this thing gets into the high 3 or 4 CAT, ERC will have to be watched carefully. I'm always drawn to HUGO, it was not suppose to Hit Char. SC But it did! Cat 4 hurricanes can make it's own path, that being said which needs to be watched is the front that just passed might and big might entrain some dry air. I hope that this thing curves out to sea. We do need rain, but we don' need a historical floods.

this is like the "creating its own cold air" arguments in winter.

[NCSNOW]

78W is key in my opinion, if the storm can get there, specifically around 30N, I have a very hard time seeing a track given both climo and setup, that misses NC. Not sure how one could count this as a fish with a pretty good clustering from the more well respected models inside that BM, and landfall between ILM and MHX.

Well stated. I'm gonna be stuborn with my climo induced track idea from this past weekend sugestion a Brunswick-carterett county land fall. I still feel will get a 50-75 mile crinkle some where over the next 72-96 hours and this will have huge implications for better or worse.

[Brick Tamland]

sigh, well looks like a lot of the se's chances for tropical rains are fading. i will admit i have only been following to a degree since its been so far out in the future. now the dreaded shift away has begun. at this rate its going to be a fish storm

Yeah, cause all the trees down, flooding, and power outages would be worth it as long as we get some rain.

[NCStateMMY]

I know the models keep trending east, but keep in mind their is a data void with the trough over the Gulf of Alaska, so that could change once that gets on shore and better obs are being made. Also, it seems the models have had a eastward bias for a while. Remember the Christmas snowstorm? It was suppossed to be a fish storm 24 hours out, but we saw what happened there.

[downeastnc]

Well stated. I'm gonna be stuborn with my climo induced track idea from this past weekend sugestion a Brunswick-carterett county land fall. I still feel will get a 50-75 mile crinkle some where over the next 72-96 hours and this will have huge implications for better or worse.

I am kinda hesitant to write this thing off as well, like WeatherNC I suspect if it gets to 78-79W that ILM to MHX is gonna get hit and this will end up looking very much like a Bertha track across eastern NC. Typically storms that fish or totally miss the OBC dont get much past 75W and rarely get to 78-79W, one fear I have is that the GFS is overdoing the trough and it wont be able to get it right until the players are actually on the map so to speak, if the Euro holds serve over ILM this afternoon its gonna get ugly and the NHC is gonna have a tough road ahead of them the next few days. I mean what do you do when all the models are east but the Euro runs are consistant and not changing much at all.

[downeastnc]

I know the models keep trending east, but keep in mind their is a data void with the trough over the Gulf of Alaska, so that could change once that gets on shore and better obs are being made. Also, it seems the models have had a eastward bias for a while. Remember the Christmas snowstorm? It was suppossed to be a fish storm 24 hours out, but we saw what happened there.

LOL exactly what I was just pointing out, I would hate for folks to write off what could be the strongest landfalling hurricane in NC in the last 50 yrs cause the friggen 5 day GFS said it was gonna fish only to have the GFS jump back west 100 miles 48 hrs out.

[Mencken_Fan]

But..."chase" it where? How? A major hurricane, in a heavily forested region, at night? No thanks.

Be sure and take your chainsaw with you. You'll need it every mile or two, just to keep moving down the road. Assuming the roads aren't flooded -- and I don't just mean ponding.

Right now, this thing is "chasing" us.

You got that right kiddo.

It's a tough thing to deal with personally as a weather nut. I know my peers want to see a great storm (as do I of course) but this ain't an ordinary hurricane. Accepting it as a perfectly natural event gets tangled with one's concern for self and neighbors. But if nature decides to send a Cat 4 into our coastline, so be it. Being angry about it is useless.

I'm having my ups and downs dealing with this storm. Love the idea of the storm but dread the consequences. I guess I gotta look at it this way: "All the wishing, hoping, and hollering is a waste of time. It's nature; deal with it and make the best of it."

In all my near-sixty years of weather geekiness, I've never been in a situation like this; even if temporarily. It hit me like a ton of bricks; caught me mentally off-guard. Guess I gotta learn to be a resident of Coastal North Carolina eh?

Let the cards fall where they may...

[Mencken_Fan]

Yeah, a 700 mile(?) shift is pretty ridiculous. It's not very common to see a forecast go from the gulf of mexico to eastern nc. Yes big shifts in 5 day forecasts are somewhat common but I think it is pretty rare to see THAT big of a shift.

To misinterpret the Highs on either side of the East Coast at this level suggests our state of the art ain't all that.

[strongwxnc]

Wait...What? I thought that statement was true

this is like the "creating its own cold air" arguments in winter.

[downeastnc]

You got that right kiddo.

It's a tough thing to deal with personally as a weather nut. I know my peers want to see a great storm (as do I of course) but this ain't an ordinary hurricane. Accepting it as a perfectly natural event gets tangled with one's concern for self and neighbors. But if nature decides to send a Cat 4 into our coastline, so be it. Being angry about it is useless.

I'm having my ups and downs dealing with this storm. Love the idea of the storm but dread the consequences. I guess I gotta look at it this way: "All the wishing, hoping, and hollering is a waste of time. It's nature; deal with it and make the best of it."

In all my near-sixty years of weather geekiness, I've never been in a situation like this; even if temporarily. It hit me like a ton of bricks; caught me mentally off-guard. Guess I gotta learn to be a resident of Coastal North Carolina eh?

Let the cards fall where they may...

Its gonna do what its gonna do.....just be ready for the post storm, the experiance of the actual storm is awesome and kinda scary all at the same time ( might be a tad more scary than awesome if its a Cat 4 ), its the part afterwords that sucks the most assuming you escape with only minor damage. No power, cant drink the water, usually gets really hot the first 2-3 days after the storm with no A/C or FAN etc.....

[Mencken_Fan]

Hugo was pretty much barreling toward SC. There were some thoughts it might go to MYR, but it was pretty well known even in 89 the general direction in which it was headed.

And Cat 4's don't just go wherever they please. If so, they'd never turn, they'd just go in straight lines and they'd be easy to forecast.

I'm just curious; did you track Hugo in real time?

I only ask because I did - and Charleston was not the original target. Living in DC at the time, I clearly remember the official forecast for the Chesapeake Bay: "winds increasing to 100mph and tides 10' above normal." Furthermore, the forecast for DC was "winds increasing to 75mph."

Hugo was forecast to re-curve more than it did. Of that I'm absolutely sure...because I watched his every move on TV and listened to every forecast; good weather geek that I was back then.

[griteater]

[Brick Tamland]

Farther east again.

[Isopycnic]

MODEL PORN:

[griteater]

Does anyone have a link to maps showing wind shear for tropical systems (obs and model forecasts)?

NHC 11AM Disco...

A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR OVER IRENE

[Mencken_Fan]

New NHC track....over the Delmarva at hurricane strength! That would be once in a lifetime. And that is one super-heavily built up coast with a gazillion visitors. They're gonna freak.

[downeastnc]

Timing is a little better would be getting even with my latitude and the center would be maybe 30-40 miles east of me at around 6-8pm maybe. If its still a 100mph cane aroundthat time then thats prolly best as the bigger cities in eastern NC are all on the western side of the center with that track. Of course if the models keep running offshore I expect this to shift east again, but if the Euro hold on to the around ILM landfall then this might be as far east as the track gets.

Overall this is very close to Bertha's track maybe a touch east of it.

[downeastnc]

MODEL PORN:

Wow...so you headed for New Bern then to ride it out I assume, if that keeps headed NNE it would pummel the big cities in the east.

[Mencken_Fan]

Does anyone have a link to maps showing wind shear for tropical systems (obs and model forecasts)?

NHC 11AM Disco...

A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR OVER IRENE

That...after saying for days there would be no wind shear along the entire path. This is a particular area where I've seen year after year the state of the art ain't all that.

[Isopycnic]

Wow...so you headed for New Bern then to ride it out I assume, if that keeps headed NNE it would pummel the big cities in the east.

No way... GFS has a cat 3 over east of ocrakoke and in pamlico sound at 120hr . That would force about 8-12ft of water into new bern.

[Isopycnic]

More Porn:

[downeastnc]

No way... GFS has a cat 3 over east of Oriental and in pamlico sound at 120hr . That would force about 8-12ft of water into new bern.

Yeah any of these tracks with a Cat 3 are , gonna be epic surge up the Neuse and Pamlico. Of course its looks to be moving pretty fast now so perhaps that will reduce the surge a bit.

[Solak]

VIA @ TWCDrKnabb Dr. Rick Knabb Another NOAA G-IV jet mission provided data for models initialized at 8 am today, new tracks coming this afternoon.

[Brick Tamland]

Heard that Elizabeth Gardner on WRAL said that what we need to push Irene east isn't present, though.

[NEGa]

Yeah, cause all the trees down, flooding, and power outages would be worth it as long as we get some rain.

eh, i like extreme wx. we cannot control it, and no i dont wish things to be destroyed. however, we cant change it and might as well enjoy the wild wx. ivan took down trees and power lines but was fascinating to experience.

besides, originally i was thinking buckets of rain which we really do need.

[Brick Tamland]

eh, i like extreme wx. we cannot control it, and no i dont wish things to be destroyed. however, we cant change it and might as well enjoy the wild wx. ivan took down trees and power lines but was fascinating to experience.

besides, originally i was thinking buckets of rain which we really do need.

That's like burning down your house because you're cold.

[packbacker]

Heard that Elizabeth Gardner on WRAL said that what we need to push Irene east isn't present, though.

Yeah, I am a little worried that this thing swings back west, just 50-100 miles and it would get ugly. Reading Allan's blog it's going to be hard to predict when this thing decides to shift NW to N. Hopefully it will keep moving east.

[strongwxnc]

Nice posts Isopycnic !!

[Jon]

Anyone think the previous NHC track was a little ballsy? To the untrained eye it looked like it was going to plow along I-95...and it was way west than what it should have been, only thing holding it back was the UKMET....It struck me as odd, but the track up now is more like it.

[Brick Tamland]

Also interesting to note that Irene could be very close to NYC as a hurricane.