Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[eyewall]

Heads up to my friends in SC, NC and up the seaboard....Eyewall, you chasing??

I plan on chasing unless this thing ends up going over the OBX. A direct hit there is a no-go unless your car floats and you are a real good swimmer.

[strongwxnc]

This is a neat image found at the Tracking Link at the top of the page....

[Sunny and Warm]

Not that I agree with the NHC, but you should probably check their 5-day forecast track... see that M over east-central NC? That means they have a Major at landfall.

Their maximum sustained winds forecast is 115 mph at 120 hours (which matches up with the NC dot on the map)... low-end Cat 3.

Oh, I realize that. My point was that just because it shows an M 50 miles inland doesn't mean it will actually be an M 50 miles inland, as the previous poster indicated. Maybe I'm interpreting it incorrectly, but I'm thinking they mean it will be an M at landfall, and that is how they depict it. Agree?

[deltadog03]

I plan on chasing unless this thing ends up going over the OBX. A direct hit there is a no-go unless your car floats and you are a real good swimmer.

Oh, cool....should be a nice video for sure....YA, don't go floating or swimming...stay safe....I bet the swell will be very high huh?

[MarkSC]

The projected wind field is enormous. SC could get hurricane winds even if the track is well east.

[Cold Rain]

I plan on chasing unless this thing ends up going over the OBX. A direct hit there is a no-go unless your car floats and you are a real good swimmer.

You're going to need a boat to chase this thing before it's over with!

[Lookout]

Oh, I realize that. My point was that just because it shows an M 50 miles inland doesn't mean it will actually be an M 50 miles inland, as the previous poster indicated. Maybe I'm interpreting it incorrectly, but I'm thinking they mean it will be an M at landfall, and that is how they depict it. Agree?

They don't normally do it like that. Indeed the 5 day strength is what they expect at that moment in time. It's not impossible either for it to still be a major at that position. If Irene has a large eye it will take more time for it to spin down. If the storm has a large eye, the back end of the eyewall might still just be on the coast while the inland part of the eyewall is well inland. And in relation to that, the max winds also include winds over the water and normally the strongest winds after a storm moves inland are indeed over the water. And since they are expecting this storm to be quite large with a huge windfield, it's obvious there is going to be some very high winds still remaining over the water at that time.

Likewise it's forward motion is also taken into consideration. The faster a storm is moving the higher the winds will be further inland. And based on their forecast points, it seems they expect it to be moving at a decent speed. Finally, since there is some question about it's strength (it could be much stronger at landfall than indicated as nhc is normally conservative at that range..especially involving landfalls), that might have been taken into consideration.

So there is nothing unreasonable or unexpected about their 5 day forecast point being 115mph.

[WNCwx]

I'm on the Widreman train, too. This one looks like a fish, or at the very least an OBX brush by the eyewall if the trend eastward continues.

[airmarci]

[deltadog03]

Looks like Irene is moving WNW to almost W this am...Recon is on the way, so we will know pretty soon.

[crossthread]

morning folks, looking & reading, i'm holding off on my "beer run", this morning..

Waiting for another fresh round of model run(s)...

err First Cup O' joe...

hmm looks like a CAT 3/ Or fish?

ILM/MHC/OBX/Big Fish story, the ONE that got away.

wow.....

Whoa what 12 hours does to the pro-Mets around here....

Is everyone going to be Bald by time Irene gets here?

[Isopycnic]

Red Cross surge and emergence info for NC:

https://arcims.redcross.org/website/maps/images/NorthCarolina/ARC_NC_Links.html

Cartaret County: https://arcims.redcross.org/website/maps/images/NorthCarolina/carteret_fast_surge.pdf

[packfan98]

I find it interesting that so few take what I would consider a typical arcing path with a smooth recurve. They are literally all over the place with sharp turns left and right. I know that the upper air patterns and steering currents have huge effects, but I was surprised by the map.

This is a neat image found at the Tracking Link at the top of the page....

[Brick Tamland]

It seems the track keep going a little further east with every update. I'd love to see this miss land completely. I'm all for staying home in the snow, but a hurricane is no fun.

[UNCCmetgrad]

Looks like Irene is moving WNW to almost W this am...Recon is on the way, so we will know pretty soon.

I was about to say the same thing. Of course it could just be the CDO rotating around the center but it is possible it could still be encountering frictional effects from Hispaniola.

[Bozart]

I plan on chasing unless this thing ends up going over the OBX. A direct hit there is a no-go unless your car floats and you are a real good swimmer.

But..."chase" it where? How? A major hurricane, in a heavily forested region, at night? No thanks.

Be sure and take your chainsaw with you. You'll need it every mile or two, just to keep moving down the road. Assuming the roads aren't flooded -- and I don't just mean ponding.

Right now, this thing is "chasing" us.

[Sunny and Warm]

Red Cross surge and emergence info for NC:

https://arcims.redcr...C_NC_Links.html

Cartaret County: https://arcims.redcr..._fast_surge.pdf

A neighbor of mine who's with FEMA was called yesterday to get to Atlanta (regional hdqtrs) for this morning. He's likely going to NC for an extended period.

[NCSNOW]

Saw this posted on wu. Pretty neat showing how the cone keeps getting shunted east every update the past couple of days.

[WeatherNC]

78W is key in my opinion, if the storm can get there, specifically around 30N, I have a very hard time seeing a track given both climo and setup, that misses NC. Not sure how one could count this as a fish with a pretty good clustering from the more well respected models inside that BM, and landfall between ILM and MHX.

[NCStateMMY]

78W is key in my opinion, if the storm can get there, specifically around 30N, I have a very hard time seeing a track given both climo and setup, that misses NC. Not sure how one could count this as a fish with a pretty good clustering from the more well respected models inside that BM, and landfall between ILM and MHX.

I agree. Even if it starts turning NNW or North at 30N, 78W, I would think the storms own momentum would cause to stay close enough to come in near Swansboro or Cape Carteret. I had a friend take note of some convection off the SC and NC coast. If that stays constant, I wonder if we see a coastal front setup like during Floyd.

[WeatherNC]

12z early cycle continues the shift east

[packbacker]

12z early cycle continues the shift east

Thankfully it appears we are going to get lucky and escape this thing, hopefully it get's pushed a little farther east so the OBX don't get the worst of it.

[Lookout]

Saw this posted on wu. Pretty neat showing how the cone keeps getting shunted east every update the past couple of days.

[/url]

Yeah, a 700 mile(?) shift is pretty ridiculous. It's not very common to see a forecast go from the gulf of mexico to eastern nc. Yes big shifts in 5 day forecasts are somewhat common but I think it is pretty rare to see THAT big of a shift.

[ORWX]

If Miss Irene were to hit the OBX at a Cat 4, could you imagine what she will do to Oregon Inlet? Better yet, I guarantee you a new inlets From Salvo all the way to Buxton will be made.

[NCStateMMY]

If Miss Irene were to hit the OBX at a Cat 4, could you imagine what she will do to Oregon Inlet? Better yet, I guarantee you a new inlets From Salvo all the way to Buxton will be made.

I am afraid there would be new inlets from Carova to Portsmouth.

[airmarci]

[Pilotwx]

If this thing gets into the high 3 or 4 CAT, ERC will have to be watched carefully. I'm always drawn to HUGO, it was not suppose to Hit Char. SC But it did! Cat 4 hurricanes can make it's own path, that being said which needs to be watched is the front that just passed might and big might entrain some dry air. I hope that this thing curves out to sea. We do need rain, but we don' need a historical floods.

[Hugo]

If this thing gets into the high 3 or 4 CAT, ERC will have to be watched carefully. I'm always drawn to HUGO, it was not suppose to Hit Char. SC But it did! Cat 4 hurricanes can make it's own path, that being said which needs to be watched is the front that just passed might and big might entrain some dry air. I hope that this thing curves out to sea. We do need rain, but we don' need a historical floods.

Hugo was pretty much barreling toward SC. There were some thoughts it might go to MYR, but it was pretty well known even in 89 the general direction in which it was headed.

And Cat 4's don't just go wherever they please. If so, they'd never turn, they'd just go in straight lines and they'd be easy to forecast.

[Brick Tamland]

Keep going east!

[NEGa]

sigh, well looks like a lot of the se's chances for tropical rains are fading. i will admit i have only been following to a degree since its been so far out in the future. now the dreaded shift away has begun. at this rate its going to be a fish storm