Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[Bozart]

Your a little annoying. Not gonna lie.

No need shooting the messenger.

[FoothillsNC]

Thats one bad cane for northeastern NC, southeastern VA. , drops 12" of rain. Looks like a strong CAT 3 atleast, if not 4.

[griteater]

She's looking impressive on satellite

[Cold Rain]

00z GFS with the new data is east east east. Stick a fork in it, it's done. Just like in the winter, we cannot get the northern stream troughs to be timed correctly.

And just like in Winter, the 5 day GFS is right on the money. Bank it.

[downeastnc]

Thats one bad cane for northeastern NC, southeastern VA. , drops 12" of rain. Looks like a strong CAT 3 atleast, if not 4.

Kinda odd run too the trough seems pretty strong then drops the storm and the ridge runs it up the coast but really takes most of NC out of play for anything other than minimal impact. Euro gonna be interesting it usually does better with troughs and ridges in this range so if it follows the GFS we might dodge a bullet.

[Dunkman]

Kinda odd run too the trough seems pretty strong then drops the storm and the ridge runs it up the coast but really takes most of NC out of play for anything other than minimal impact. Euro gonna be interesting it usually does better with troughs and ridges in this range so if it follows the GFS we might dodge a bullet.

Is there any way we can weaken it and have it come in? I'll take a graze from a bullet to get a bunch of rain. GFS has me getting a sweet .25in if I'm lucky.

[griteater]

I'm pretty sure Hazel in '54 is the only CAT 4 to ever hit NC...and that was right on the SC/NC border. Gloria in '85 is the one that stands out to me. It blew up to CAT 4 status south of Hatteras before weakening - pressure got down to 919mb.

[WidreMann]

Your a little annoying. Not gonna lie.

I'm also right most of the time. It's a sad state that despite all of our fancy models and machinations, a malcontent on a weather forum can often call things with some degree of accuracy fairly regularly.

[nchighcountrywx]

I am not convinced of an adequate conveyor belt to get Irene inland. My analysis says go with climatology for the classic Hatteras brush keeping the damaging part of the storm offshore.

[downeastnc]

I am not convinced of an adequate conveyor belt to get Irene inland. My analysis says go with climatology for the classic Hatteras brush keeping the damaging part of the storm offshore.

Depends on how far inland you are talking.......anywhere east of 79-80W is in play for a direct hit. It all comes down to how far the trough pulls it east, once it lets go of Irene she is gonna head mostly due N or barely E of N. I agree this thing isnt going way inland like Hugo or Fran but everyone from RAH east are still very much in the game IMO.

[WidreMann]

Depends on how far inland you are talking.......anywhere east of 79-80W is in play for a direct hit. It all comes down to how far the trough pulls it east, once it lets go of Irene she is gonna head mostly due N or barely E of N. I agree this thing isnt going way inland like Hugo or Fran but everyone from RAH east are still very much in the game IMO.

What's supposed to bring it west, exactly?

[Bozart]

Kinda odd run too the trough seems pretty strong then drops the storm and the ridge runs it up the coast but really takes most of NC out of play for anything other than minimal impact.

I wouldn't say "minimal" impact. Even though the track is east of us, this run prints out 7" to 9" of rain on most of NC's coastal plain. That's gonna impact somebody, assuming it happens.

[griteater]

The GFS has trended more amplified with the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley trough over the past 24 hrs. The Euro has stayed the course with the trough amplification, but its 00z run looms.

[downeastnc]

What's supposed to bring it west, exactly?

Not sure I follow, I dont think its gonna go back west once it turns up the coast I just dont think its gonna go racing NE either...its gonna head mostly N the ridge isnt strong enough to push it back NW and the westerlies are far enough north to let it get to NE. So a track up over NC is still possible and even likely at this point.

That said I have been living here my entire life and am fully aware these things can and do change so I wouldnt be shocked to see it miss the OBX. Its going to be a long 4 days of people freaking out everytime the models run.....

[downeastnc]

I wouldn't say "minimal" impact. Even though the track is east of us, this run prints out 7" to 9" of rain on most of NC's coastal plain. That's gonna impact somebody, assuming it happens.

The last GFS run put the center about 60 miles east of us as the crow flies so it would still be rough just not really rough. You could drive 30 miles to the east though and get into some really rough I bet.

[Gastonwxman]

Euro really ramps up Irene as it affects the Outer Banks by 120 to Cat. 4 (923mb). 12z only had it at 964mb around that same timeframe. Quite a devastating hit if that verified.

[Jon]

Euro really ramps up Irene as it affects the Outer Banks by 120 to Cat. 4 (923mb). 12z only had it at 964mb around that same timeframe. Quite a devastating hit if that verified.

Amazing...I can really see this verifying as it really isn't "too far east" as some models have been showing...Wilmington and a bit north seems to be on everyone's mind at this point.

[Mencken_Fan]

5am update: models in agreement....ILM landfall.....Irene still a major after moving inland.

I'm speechless......

[Sunny and Warm]

5am update: models in agreement....ILM landfall.....Irene still a major after moving inland.

I'm speechless......

That's not what I read. Euro just east of ILM. GFS goes around NC and hits Long Island after scraping the outer banks, and if anyone believes a hurricane can be still a major after landfall, I have a bridge to sell them.

[Mencken_Fan]

That's not what I read. Euro just east of ILM. GFS goes around NC and hits Long Island after scraping the outer banks, and if anyone believes a hurricane can be still a major after landfall, I have a bridge to sell them.

I'm talking about the NHC 5am update....perhaps you should read it before posting.

DUH.

[Sunny and Warm]

I'm talking about the NHC 5am update....perhaps you should read it before posting.

DUH.

Again, that's not what I read. Reading comprehension is important as well.

From the NHC:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND

LIES VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

That's all they say about landfall and intensity. You're putting words in their discussion that do not exist. Further, that disco does not speak of a consensus of the GFS and the Euro, but of the TVCN and TVCA, and the NHC decided on continuity to a position near the ILM area. Methinks that if they went by the globals, they'd be slightly up the coast. They say nothing about intensity AFTER landfall, and if you're just going by pretty pictures to get to that idea, please don't.

[Mencken_Fan]

Again, that's not what I read. Reading comprehension is important as well.

From the NHC:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND

LIES VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

That's all they say about landfall and intensity. You're putting words in their discussion that do not exist. Further, that disco does not speak of a consensus of the GFS and the Euro, but of the TVCN and TVCA, and the NHC decided on continuity to a position near the ILM area. Methinks that if they went by the globals, they'd be slightly up the coast. They say nothing about intensity AFTER landfall, and if you're just going by pretty pictures to get to that idea, please don't.

Why don't you just take your rude comments and GO AWAY.

[shaggy]

Again, that's not what I read. Reading comprehension is important as well.

From the NHC:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND

LIES VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

That's all they say about landfall and intensity. You're putting words in their discussion that do not exist. Further, that disco does not speak of a consensus of the GFS and the Euro, but of the TVCN and TVCA, and the NHC decided on continuity to a position near the ILM area. Methinks that if they went by the globals, they'd be slightly up the coast. They say nothing about intensity AFTER landfall, and if you're just going by pretty pictures to get to that idea, please don't.

Ummm they say alot more than that little snippet you posted. From my experience the NHC is growing in confidence and when they start sticking to their guns and using the tvcn. Unless something bizarre happens I wouldn't expect that track to shift left or right by more than a 50-75 miles either direction from here on out. The models really seem to have gotten a better handle after the data ingested into them.

THERE IS NO

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE

23/00Z G-IV JET AIRCRAFT AND AIR FORCE C-130 DROPSONDE DATA APPEAR

TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN THE MODELS...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS

DIFFERENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW. THE OVERWHELMING

CONSENSUS IS THAT IRENE WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE

NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A DEVELOPING BREAK IN

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND

LIES VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

[Sunny and Warm]

Why don't you just take your rude comments and GO AWAY.

what are you, 10? You made a post I disagree with and I responsed. Your response in return was DUH. You tell me who was rude. You then accuse me of not reading the NHC disco. Again, rude. Have you nothing factually to back up your position other than rude comments?

[Sunny and Warm]

Ummm they say alot more than that little snippet you posted. From my experience the NHC is growing in confidence and when they start sticking to their guns and using the tvcn. Unless something bizarre happens I wouldn't expect that track to shift left or right by more than a 50-75 miles either direction from here on out. The models really seem to have gotten a better handle after the data ingested into them.

not really. Most of that extra discussion related to its progression over the next 2-3 days, and not days 4 and 5, which is what I was speaking about. That is why I did not attach it. For the record, I am going with Morehead City as landfall point, and that is within your uncertainty cone above of 50-75 miles. However, my original point is that the GFS and Euro diverge at day 4 and that is not a consensus IMO.

[Lookout]

Why don't you just take your rude comments and GO AWAY.

You were the first one to start being rude so chill out.

[NCSNOW]

Hard to bet against the global considering all the new info thats been sampled. But comparing it to the other models it's definetly the futherest east. 6z hour 84 v/s the NAM is a big difference but it's probably due to the NAM having an initilization error I'm sure. Guess its wait and see how things shape up after this first trof completely bypasses. Gonna be a nailbitter I'm afraid from Brunswick County out to Atlantic Beach/OBX.

[Isopycnic]

I'm also right most of the time. It's a sad state that despite all of our fancy models and machinations, a malcontent on a weather forum can often call things with some degree of accuracy fairly regularly.

I'm on the Wierdmann train

[Ellinwood]

That's not what I read. Euro just east of ILM. GFS goes around NC and hits Long Island after scraping the outer banks, and if anyone believes a hurricane can be still a major after landfall, I have a bridge to sell them.

Not that I agree with the NHC, but you should probably check their 5-day forecast track... see that M over east-central NC? That means they have a Major at landfall.

Their maximum sustained winds forecast is 115 mph at 120 hours (which matches up with the NC dot on the map)... low-end Cat 3.

[deltadog03]

Heads up to my friends in SC, NC and up the seaboard....Eyewall, you chasing??