Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[kanc2001]

KANC2001 !!! Where ya been bud!? been waiting for ya to show up..

been hanging on Dr Masters hurricane blog on weather underground since its hurricane season, will be back over here in the fall/winter

[airmarci]

[griteater]

Thanks for posting these airmarci. The intensity forecasts keep gradually going up. The models have hinted all along that this would likely be a big one.

[jrips27]

Just got back from Wisconsin and wow! Been following on and off so first chance to really post my thoughts... I'm thinking Irene strengthens more than expected. Conditions look very favorable over the next few days. So I think that by around Thursday afternoon we are looking at a 135 mph Major Hurricane. As far as track I'm going for Charleston, SC which a little west of the NHC.

[FoothillsNC]

Dispite some dry air entrainment from Hispaoila, Irene is undergoing a sig period of intensification, would not be surprised, kind of expecting, a major by morning. Bahamas are going to get raked, likely one of the worst hits there in recent memory.

Yep. The CDO last few hours increased a lot, but last hour started to diminish , probably a temp. effect from entraining the drier air over DR and feeling its effects. Makes it look like a wobble southwest, atleast on the large scale, that could be just from frictional drag, but this could really bomb out once it gets out of the way.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[Gamecock Nation]

Does anyone know how many miles inland this storm could affect people along the SE coast? How wide will the storm be?

[DaculaWeather]

Way too early to tell that right now, as a matter of fact, I think it will be sometime tomorrow before we really get a feel for what this big women is going to do.

[LithiaWx]

Just got back from Wisconsin and wow! Been following on and off so first chance to really post my thoughts... I'm thinking Irene strengthens more than expected. Conditions look very favorable over the next few days. So I think that by around Thursday afternoon we are looking at a 135 mph Major Hurricane. As far as track I'm going for Charleston, SC which a little west of the NHC.

It's in chase range, what do you think man, do you want to make this your first hurricane chase? I'll meet you on the SC/NC coast how about it? I'd love to chase a hurricane, but unless this thing weakens significantly when it turns north, I really can't throw myself in front of this one.....

Welcome back to Hotlanta

[DaculaWeather]

I've added a Charleston, Miami, and Melbourne FL GRLevel3 radar loop and will be adding more once the track can be determined.

[jrips27]

It's in chase range, what do you think man, do you want to make this your first hurricane chase? I'll meet you on the SC/NC coast how about it? I'd love to chase a hurricane, but unless this thing weakens significantly when it turns north, I really can't throw myself in front of this one.....

Welcome back to Hotlanta

Thanks! One of these days I'll go after one.... I wouldn't want anything higher than a Category 2 first go-round though.

I'm still hoping she comes and visits the ATL

[griteater]

Does anyone know how many miles inland this storm could affect people along the SE coast? How wide will the storm be?

The Hurricane Center puts out graphics showing forecasted wind probabilities - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/001914.shtml?hwind120#contents

Keep an eye on those as we get closer and that should give you a good idea.

[airmarci]

Thanks for posting these airmarci. The intensity forecasts keep gradually going up. The models have hinted all along that this would likely be a big one.

No problem. Just an FYI, the new data likely did not make it into those 00Z runs. The 06Z runs should really give us an idea of what the models think of all of the new data that's been gathered this evening.

[Gamecock Nation]

The Hurricane Center puts out graphics showing forecasted wind probabilities - http://www.nhc.noaa....ind120#contents

Keep an eye on those as we get closer and that should give you a good idea.

Thanks

[FoothillsNC]

I didn't realize the SREF was so far west. It also matches the new NAM pretty closely.

http://www.nco.ncep....0h_s_loop.shtml

If the storm is on the slow side and doesnt' gain much latitude the next 48 hours, the first strong s/w might not pull it up at an easterly longitude as much, which would change the whole equation. Fast, esp. for Florida and GA.

[jrips27]

135 MPH Cat 4 on Thursday

[airmarci]

Also, for what it's worth...

[HKY_WX]

Also, for what it's worth...

See only 3 tracks that are viable out of those. Combo of Hugo/Bertha would be my guess at this point.

[eyewall]

Well the latest NHC forecast seems to be the right one with a night landfall in NC. It seems to always work that way.

[SBUWX23]

I didn't realize the SREF was so far west. It also matches the new NAM pretty closely.

http://www.nco.ncep....0h_s_loop.shtml

If the storm is on the slow side and doesnt' gain much latitude the next 48 hours, the first strong s/w might not pull it up at an easterly longitude as much, which would change the whole equation. Fast, esp. for Florida and GA.

The new Nam initalized it over Hispaniola. I would take the NAM with a grain of salt.

[jburns]

135 MPH Cat 4 on Thursday

Some strange things in there. For instance at 8pm Sat the track forecast has it just offshore as a major hurricane. At the same 8pm Sat time the chart only gives it a 7% chance of being a major and only a 36% chance of being a hurricane at all.

[kanc2001]

Little River/Calabash to Ocean Isle landfall, similar approach as Hazel did in '54

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19541015/

[LithiaWx]

Some strange things in there. For instance at 8pm Sat the track forecast has it just offshore as a major hurricane. At the same 8pm Sat time the chart only gives it a 7% chance of being a major and only a 36% chance of being a hurricane at all.

It also shows 28% Dissipated and 13% of a TD at the time frame. I guess it has to do with less consensus on their intensity models, the more days you go out.

[Bozart]

It also shows 28% Dissipated and 13% of a TD at the time frame. I guess it has to do with less consensus on their intensity models, the more days you go out.

I followed up jburns' question with that very observation. It's weird. And no one wants to pick it up and run with it.

[jburns]

I followed up jburns' question with that very observation. It's weird. And no one wants to pick it up and run with it.

Since I don't have a tag I should have posted it in red.

[LithiaWx]

I followed up jburns' question with that very observation. It's weird. And no one wants to pick it up and run with it.

I saw that when I clicked over to the main topic. I'm interested in the answer to the question you raised, how do they get to those numbers.

[Bozart]

Since I don't have a tag I should have posted it in red.

It was about the best and most legitimate and interesting question anyone has posted tonight, so naturally it gets ignored by all the cool kids.

[downeastnc]

Well the latest NHC forecast seems to be the right one with a night landfall in NC. It seems to always work that way.

Bertha was the only daytime hit......seems to me the models are locking in now dont expect to see big jumps now, gonna have to pull the trigger on my storm checklist if this thing is still within 50 miles either side of the 11pm NHC track they just issued this time tomorrow.

You going to go to ILM? I will not be able chase, (the wife would kick my ass if I tried to go to the coast and leave her here alone in a hurricane ) luckily it seems to be coming to me or at least pass within 50 miles or so I expect it will get pretty nasty here. Lets hope this thing gets here 12 hrs faster than forecast or 12 hrs later either will work.......

Fran sucked peak was like 12-3am winds fricken hitting 100 and all you could hear was trees going down and there were a hundreds of green flashes as transformers popped but thats all you could see.

[WidreMann]

00z GFS with the new data is east east east. Stick a fork in it, it's done. Just like in the winter, we cannot get the northern stream troughs to be timed correctly.

[Gastonwxman]

0z GFS at 78 hr shows Irene further north than 18z but still relatively the same strength.  Center is located away from the eastern FL coast.

Edit: By 102, Irene has strengthened some but still no landfall (975mb).

Edit2: Around 120 hr. I honestly can't tell from the charts that I'm looking at but it appears Irene eventually makes landfall on or somewhere near Cape Hatteras at 970mb.

[ryan1234]

00z GFS with the new data is east east east. Stick a fork in it, it's done. Just like in the winter, we cannot get the northern stream troughs to be timed correctly.

Your a little annoying. Not gonna lie.