Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[packbacker]

At 138-144, heading down I-95, between RDU and I-95.

At 150, over Rocky Mound heading to Richmond.

[sctvman]

Yeah. Charleston floods when we have a garden-variety thunderstorm. An inch of rain floods the Crosstown. Last year, we had a bad thunderstorm, about 2" around this time of year, and it canceled the HS football jamboree at The Citadel.

From P&C. Imagine what a cane can do.

[WeatherNC]

[Sunny and Warm]

You're talking about an event thats 5 days away. You may want to give it 48 hours before declaring it misses the coastline.

Where did I ever say that it would miss the coastline? I said I'd wait until tonight's data ingestion before writing off a south of a SC/NC border hit.

[Sunny and Warm]

Dr. Knabb on the Weather Channel stressed that people in S. Florida need to keep an eye on Irene because of this model. He said he's seen in the past that it ends up being correct even though it's the outlier. He actually seemed quite alarmed by it.

Please don't quote me the Weather Channel.

[Cheeznado]

Where did I ever say that it would miss the coastline? I said I'd wait until tonight's data ingestion before writing off a south of a SC/NC border hit.

Go ahead and write it off, this is NOT hitting FL. The GFDL has been awful, yesterday it had it heading into the GOM. When a hurricane begins to enter the latitude of the US, the regular ol synoptic models are what you look at, I ignore the hurricane models for the most part. My choice for landfall is MYR to the Outer Banks. Wilmington better prepare....

[NCStateMMY]

Oh my. Anywhere along and east of 95 will be hit severly.

[Sunny and Warm]

Historic flooding for central NC, VA and PA if the Euro is correct on this run. Reminds me of when Agnes got lost in NY and PA for 3-4 days. Hope it doesn't happen here. Euro says it misses the trough and drifts N & W for a couple days. More tonight I guess.

[Dunkman]

Here's a good look at the 12z Euro (144h central NC mayhem included).

[WeatherNC]

One would have to suspect this system is about to ramp up quickly?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[FallsLake]

Hurricane Center (at 2pm update) keeps the hit on the SC coast. We'll see...

[gtg947h]

Hurricane Center (at 2pm update) keeps the hit on the SC coast. We'll see...

I could be wrong, but IIRC NHC only updates position and strength at 2 and 8, and the actual forecast track updates at 5 and 11

[shaggy]

Snippet from the Morehead city,NC afternoon disco. This is a big statement from them because they very rarely go out on a limb for any serious weather events.

ALL EYES WILL BE ON IRENE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

COULD BEGIN TO GET THE FIRST BANDS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LATER FRI

SO CONT CHC POPS THRU THE DAY AND INCREASED TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT

SRN TIER. TRACK FROM NHC AND MDL OUTPUT CONTS TO SHIFT THE TRACK

OF IRENE TO THE E. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BUT

LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN

NC GIVEN CONSENSUS THAT IRENE WILL BE TRACKING IN THE GENERAL AREA

OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THIS INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS

SAT INTO SUN. APPEARS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING TO THE N LATER SUN

INTO MON SO GRAD DECREASED POPS FROM S TO N INTO MON.

[airmarci]

[Jon]

Here's a good look at the 12z Euro (144h central NC mayhem included).

Thanks for the link!

[WeatherNC]

Note that those eastern solutions are much quicker, which is not indicative of the EC, in slowing this system down off the SE coast. Very tight clustering due east of Cape Canaveral / Daytona Beach around 96, after that, split camp... Nevertheless, money is on the Euro, wherever that may lead. Like keeping my cards in a verified "secure" vault, be it SN or RN! Kind of hard to process with such tight clustering off the central EC of FL at day 4, we have solutions NE of NC at day 5 given the setup, which lacks a bionafied front sweeping it out to the NE.

[ryan1234]

We should all be wanting a Florida track. This would not only give beneficial rain-fall to all the Carolina's it would also give Irene the least amount of time to strengthen. I know it's unlikely, but lets see what the later models show.

[NCStateMMY]

Allan Huffman has some great analysis in his afternoon update: Irene to be a big threat...

[eyewall]

Here is my updated discussion if anyone is interested:

http://www.sandhillswx.com

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman has some great analysis in his afternoon update: Irene to be a big threat...

Yes, says it could be a cat 4.

[Mencken_Fan]

No, it's not a myth. Check out this presentation given by Pasch, an NHC forecaster. Read the section on "continuity constraints" carefully.

Thank you Kush. I stand somewhat corrected. I say somewhat because I've seen and I'm sure you've seen those rare times over the years past when a write-up goes something like: "due to new information, a significant change in track must be made blah blah blah."

It's a matter of semantics here. I never meant to suggest the NHC has ever made willy-nilly changes just because the models change (in fact, I said they don't.)

Perhaps "major" sounds more bold than "significant"; and that was part of the misunderstanding. As for "track continuity"; I was already familiar with that but thanks for the link which included a lot of useful information on their operations.

Thanks again.

[FallsLake]

Hurricane Center at 5pm (North Myrtle Beach SC??):

[Hugo]

That would actually be a landfall around Garden City.

Not that it matters 120 hours out. Just saying.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like it is headed straight for Raleigh in that map.

[Mencken_Fan]

Hurricane Center (at 2pm update) keeps the hit on the SC coast. We'll see...

That may be a S.C. landfall......but it's also a crushing blow to Southeast N.C.

My area (Wilmington/Cape Fear) would be in or near the right side eyewall.

I'm starting to feel dread...

[ryan1234]

Anyone have any information or remember when Hugo came through? Looking at the Hugo track it looked to be much farther north then Irene is right now and it looked to make more of a westward track at the last minute. Not saying in anyway this will be another Hugo but it is interesting to note.

[airmarci]

There seems to be a divide in the models outside of 96-120 hours as to where the storm will track. We've seen this in the Tropical Models and a friend of mine said that the 12Z Euro Ensembles are an absolute disaster outside of that range. Until we get inside that time frame, I would take the NHC track with a grain of salt.

[WeatherNC]

18z NAM lighting up Cuba with a 1000-something low at 48

Until we get inside that time frame, I would take the NHC track with a grain of salt.

If there was any cone I would not take with salt at this range, that would be the one...

[HKY_WX]

http://www.examiner....s-the-carolinas

Thoughts on Irene with forecast track link at very bottom.

[crossthread]

Mencklin, it'll be alright We'll be w/out power 2 weeks @ most,,

you have a weapon? if so...Some, Looting WILL happen...

Smokes, if ya gotem.

Dried/canned goods, (and a means to open them!)

Boil water advisories

Get bottled gas NOW, if you can use it on a grille.

Nice if you have a gen set...

Get some Batts, and a portable radio...

batt. powered LED flash light/Lamp

Bottled Water

First Aid Kit..

(ME: Plenty of beer)

Need to Get a couple extra SD cards for the camera, a to the Inlet access/beach to catch this girl comin in.

Hope Josh makes a appearance, so I can Meet him..

I got a 700 Gal. pool so I'm good..

Gas in your car,,, oh wait... J/K

Things of that nature.

(Did i miss anything besides more beer?)