Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[dsaur]

Looks like my landfall point is shifting east as well....Hard forecast...

Read on Master's blog they haven't even dropped sondes yet. Still a bunch of data missing, it would seem. Like the gfs in winter, where the model likes to pull back north, or down south once the sw is on shore, depending on which constituency it wants to anger, I expect things might be clearer this time tomorrow with that extra data. Looks it will fish now, still I'm in the back to the west camp... but like hoping for snow flakes, I just want some rain T

[downeastnc]

Yep, this run is quite a bit deeper with the first trough. It's quite a big change though so it would helpful if it shows it a few runs in a row. However, it does indeed to be increasingly likely that this storm is heading toward the carolinas. I still think there is little chance of this hurricane not striking the u.s. at some point along the east coast. In fact this run is one of the worst case scenarios in terms of damage because it rakes the entire east coast from nc to new england.

I knew yesterday the forecast tracks were in most likely too good to be true for us. I wish for once we would have a ga landfall and it move straight northwest. The worst part about it though is the orgasmic new england weenies going wild. Going to be a rough 5 or 6 days for us on the staff.

Also of note, If this trough is as strong as the gfs hows it to be, it's unlikely irene would be able to steer itself more west due to convergence to the north and strengthening the low to mid level ridge as steward said in the 5am advisory. My basis for the idea is that there is a period of building heights between the troughs. This run however will pull the storm so far north initially that it's a moot point.

What makes it even worse is we will be in the strong subsidence region around the storm with absolutely no chance of rain. I miss having a strong tropical system slamming us and it will be painful watching the east coast weenies squeal in excitement.

Yep have fun trying to keep the main thread on track the next 5 days lol, you can always come chill here this weekend we are far enough inland we dont get sustained winds to cane force usually ( we might have for 5 min periods during the peak of Fran ) but usually its 40-60 sustained and gust to 80-110. Of course we havent been hit by anything bigger than Fran and the angle of Irene's track IF it hits ILMish would be right at us more or less, so that would put us in the NE quad with the center tracking right over or just east or west of us

[buckeyefan1]

Yep, this run is quite a bit deeper with the first trough. It's quite a big change though so it would helpful if it shows it a few runs in a row. However, it does indeed to be increasingly likely that this storm is heading toward the carolinas. I still think there is little chance of this hurricane not striking the u.s. at some point along the east coast. In fact this run is one of the worst case scenarios in terms of damage because it rakes the entire east coast from nc to new england.

I knew yesterday the forecast tracks were in most likely too good to be true for us. I wish for once we would have a ga landfall and it move straight northwest. The worst part about it though is the orgasmic new england weenies going wild. Going to be a rough 5 or 6 days for us on the staff.

Also of note, If this trough is as strong as the gfs hows it to be, it's unlikely irene would be able to steer itself more west due to convergence to the north and strengthening the low to mid level ridge as steward said in the 5am advisory. My basis for the idea is that there is a period of building heights between the troughs. This run however will pull the storm so far north initially that it's a moot point.

What makes it even worse is we will be in the strong subsidence region around the storm with absolutely no chance of rain. I miss having a strong tropical system slamming us and it will be painful watching the east coast weenies squeal in excitement.

You have read my mind :(

[Cold Rain]

I'm at Carolina Beach this week. I'm hoping to catch a sliver of some cirrus outflow as it passes by to my east.

[Mencken_Fan]

I'm at Carolina Beach this week. I'm hoping to catch a sliver of some cirrus outflow as it passes by to my east.

If you're at Carolina Beach on Saturday you'll see a lot more than just cirrus outflow. The NHC is holding that track back for good reason; they know something.

[MotoWeatherman]

It will be a blessing if this thing misses the entire coast. No one should be rooting for this thing to make landfall. Just my opinion....flame away....

[HWY316wx]

Feel for you Lookout. Stinking NE guys!

[Cold Rain]

One question though: Given the same background conditions, would a Cat 5 have any different tendency in its track than a Cat 2 or Cat 3? In other words, would their paths be affected differently by the same strength troughs or ridges?

[Cold Rain]

If you're at Carolina Beach on Saturday you'll see a lot more than just cirrus outflow. The NHC is holding that track back for good reason; they know something.

Haha! I know it. I'm just channeling Widre after watching the East trend for the last 2 days.

[WidreMann]

It will be a blessing if this thing misses the entire coast. No one should be rooting for this thing to make landfall. Just my opinion....flame away....

We need rain.

[WidreMann]

If you're at Carolina Beach on Saturday you'll see a lot more than just cirrus outflow. The NHC is holding that track back for good reason; they know something.

They're holding it because they don't make major track adjustments in a single update.

[packbacker]

It will be a blessing if this thing misses the entire coast. No one should be rooting for this thing to make landfall. Just my opinion....flame away....

Agreed 1000%, I can't believe people are rooting for a direct hit Cat 3 hurricane, maybe even stronger. The best scenario for hurricane lovers is a brush against the coast where people could chase out there, still feel the affects but it's not catastrophic for someone.

[WidreMann]

Well, Farmers Almanac nailed this one:

August 2011

20th-23rd. Pleasant, turning unsettled.

24th-27th. Hazy and humid, with scattered thunderstorms.

28th-31st. Hot and steamy. A hurricane threat for the Southeast.

Hurricane threat in the heart of hurricane season? They were really going out on a limb there.

[Brick Tamland]

We need rain.

I've had plenty of rain. Everyone always makes a big deal about drought conditions like it is never going to rain again. I'd rather have a little drought than destruction from a hurricane. That's not worth the rain if you ask me.

[MotoWeatherman]

We need rain.

Not at the expense of the destruction this one would likely bring. No amount of rain is worth that.

Agreed 1000%, I can't believe people are rooting for a direct hit Cat 3 hurricane, maybe even stronger. The best scenario for hurricane lovers is a brush against the coast where people could chase out there, still feel the affects but it's not catastrophic for someone.

Yep...that totally baffles me.

[Mencken_Fan]

It will be a blessing if this thing misses the entire coast. No one should be rooting for this thing to make landfall. Just my opinion....flame away....

The zealousness with which one roots for a major hurricane landfall is proportional to the poster's distance from hurricane alley.

Haven't you noticed?

[Sunny and Warm]

Agreed 1000%, I can't believe people are rooting for a direct hit Cat 3 hurricane, maybe even stronger. The best scenario for hurricane lovers is a brush against the coast where people could chase out there, still feel the affects but it's not catastrophic for someone.

Weather enthusiasts are rooting for weather phenomena to occur that is/may be rare. As long as it doesn't hit me, I'm okay with it. They aren't wishing me or my location death and destruction, their just looking at matters narrowly weather-wise. I take no personal offense to it, nor to those that are offended by those who wish it. It is a weather board after all, and as Widre stated, we need the rain. The kick in the pants is that this may cause hot, dry conditions as it slides by and perpetuate the drought.

[Sunny and Warm]

The zealousness with which one roots for a major hurricane landfall is proportional to the poster's distance from hurricane alley.

Haven't you noticed?

inversely related you mean, and I agree. When I lived in PA, I had less care on wishing a hurricane to hit than I do now.

[Mencken_Fan]

They're holding it because they don't make major track adjustments in a single update.

That's a myth.

Because they're not stupid in the first place, major shifts in a single update are rarely needed, but they do happen; I've seen it happen.

The NHC doesn't make knee-jerk reactions to models like we do. They pay more attention to the upstream than we do. And so on.

Or perhaps you and others believe the NHC deliberately deceives the public with tracks they don't actually believe in?

[k***]

That's a myth.

Because they're not stupid in the first place, major shifts in a single update are rarely needed, but they do happen; I've seen it happen.

The NHC doesn't make knee-jerk reactions to models like we do. They pay more attention to the upstream than we do. And so on.

Or perhaps you and others believe the NHC deliberately deceives the public with tracks they don't actually believe in?

No, it's not a myth. Check out this presentation given by Pasch, an NHC forecaster. Read the section on "continuity constraints" carefully.

http://www.dtcenter.org/HurrWRF/users/docs/presentations/workshop02222010/pasch.pdf

[packbacker]

Weather enthusiasts are rooting for weather phenomena to occur that is/may be rare. As long as it doesn't hit me, I'm okay with it. They aren't wishing me or my location death and destruction, their just looking at matters narrowly weather-wise. I take no personal offense to it, nor to those that are offended by those who wish it. It is a weather board after all, and as Widre stated, we need the rain. The kick in the pants is that this may cause hot, dry conditions as it slides by and perpetuate the drought.

Agreed, it's amazing watching something this powerful, but still scary. Just so I am clear, are you hoping this misses you? I can't imagine what this would do to HH.

[toad strangler]

Model trend hurty hurtz

[Sunny and Warm]

Agreed, it's amazing watching something this powerful, but still scary. Just so I am clear, are you hoping this misses you? I can't imagine what this would do to HH.

Of course I'm hoping this misses me to the east. Anything from Jacksonville to Savannah puts me in big doodoo. Charleston and north, not so much. I'm not wishing ill on them, but since I can't change the path of the storm, I might as well root against me getting hit.

[superjames1992]

Wide range of possibilities.

(12z GFDL)

That's a hell of a storm hitting Miami at hour 90. GFDL holds in its much more southern solution.

[jburns]

Trying to compare Hazel to Floyd damage wise is like comparing apples to oranges. Both were equally devastating, but in completely different ways.

Lookout, I know you will want to delete this but the apples and oranges argument comes up constantly in weather threads and is never challenged. Secondly, the storm is still several days away. Finally, a good laugh is still good even in bad weather. How about cutting some slack this time.

http://improb.com/ai...1-3-apples.html

Apples and Oranges -- A Comparison

by Scott A. Sandford, NASA Ames Research Center, Mountain View, California

We have all been present at discussions (or arguments) in which one of the combatants attempts to clarify or strengthen a point by comparing the subject at hand with another item or situation more familiar to the audience or opponent. More often than not, this stratagem instantly results in the protest that "you're comparing apples and oranges!" This is generally perceived as being a telling blow to the analogy, since it is generally understood that apples and oranges cannot be compared. However, after being the recipient of just such an accusation, it occurred to me that there are several problems with dismissing analogies with the comparing apples and oranges defense.

First, the statement that something is like comparing apples and oranges is a kind of analogy itself. That is, denigrating an analogy by accusing it of comparing apples and oranges is, in and of itself, comparing apples and oranges. More importantly, it is not difficult to demonstrate that apples and oranges can, in fact, be compared (see figure 1).

Materials and Methods

Both samples were prepared by gently desiccating them in a convection oven at low temperature over the course of several days. The dried samples were then mixed with potassium bromide and ground in a small ball-bearing mill for two minutes. One hundred milligrams of each of the resulting powders were then pressed into a circular pellet having a diameter of 1 cm and a thickness of approximately 1 mm. Spectra were taken at a resolution of 1 cm-1 using a Nicolet 740 FTIR spectrometer. Figure 2 shows a comparison of the 4000-400 cm-1 (2.5-25 mm) infrared transmission spectra of a Granny Smith apple and a Sunkist Navel orange.

Conclusions

Not only was this comparison easy to make, but it is apparent from the figure that apples and oranges are very similar. Thus, it would appear that the comparing apples and oranges defense should no longer be considered valid. This is a somewhat startling revelation. It can be anticipated to have a dramatic effect on the strategies used in arguments and discussions in the future.

[Sunny and Warm]

Wide range of possibilities.

(12z GFDL)

That's a hell of a storm hitting Miami at hour 90. GFDL holds in its much more southern solution.

That's the painful outlier now. The Ukie went from Tampa to Charleston in one run just now, and the Euro at 12z is trying to go east of its 00z run. The possible final nail in a SC and south hit will be the 00z runs tonight when they will have all the balloon and G-IV data ingested into the models.

[packbacker]

That's the painful outlier now. The Ukie went from Tampa to Charleston in one run just now, and the Euro at 12z is trying to go east of its 00z run. The possible final nail in a SC and south hit will be the 00z runs tonight when they will have all the balloon and G-IV data ingested into the models.

It's SW of 12z GFS through 96hr. Maybe 50 miles. Compared to 0z Euro it's slower.

[packbacker]

At 132 it rolls right over ILM, definitely west of GFS.

Also, absolutely west of 0z Euro.

[BullCityWx]

That's the painful outlier now. The Ukie went from Tampa to Charleston in one run just now, and the Euro at 12z is trying to go east of its 00z run. The possible final nail in a SC and south hit will be the 00z runs tonight when they will have all the balloon and G-IV data ingested into the models.

You're talking about an event thats 5 days away. You may want to give it 48 hours before declaring it misses the coastline.

[MJW155]

That's the painful outlier now. The Ukie went from Tampa to Charleston in one run just now, and the Euro at 12z is trying to go east of its 00z run. The possible final nail in a SC and south hit will be the 00z runs tonight when they will have all the balloon and G-IV data ingested into the models.

Dr. Knabb on the Weather Channel stressed that people in S. Florida need to keep an eye on Irene because of this model. He said he's seen in the past that it ends up being correct even though it's the outlier. He actually seemed quite alarmed by it.