Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[crossthread]

I meant Hugo Foothills, sry bout that..

Devolpment has went crazy here, since Fran/Floyd..

Building in places that shouldn't have been devloped.

People have grown , how do ya say, complacent?

if Irene even, comes ashore w/wind and plenty of rain w/it, it'll be catastrophic!

[sea1skiff]

If you get hurricane conditions in Winston-Salem; the casket business will be brisk along the coast.

Good one

[NCStateMMY]

FIFY

Hazel or Hugo, take your pick...

Trying to compare Hazel to Floyd damage wise is like comparing apples to oranges. Both were equally devastating, but in completely different ways.

[FoothillsNC]

The 12z GFS has a pretty strong trough coming into the East on Thursday, and thats bound to affect and slow Irene, or atleast keep her well offshore Florida. From then, its hard to say, does the trough pull north totally and can Irene be strong enough to create its own environment, or path? Hard to see that pretty stout trough not affect her, so I think for certain now Ga and FL coasts are spared.

[Mencken_Fan]

with all the development on the coast of the Carolinas since a major hurricane hit, this one would take the cake in damage I think. We've grown a LOT in the last 10 years in all the Carolinas.

Heck, imagine how remote the Carolina coast was back in 1954!

I can remember the Delmarva coast all the way back to the middle '50s and even there development was sparse. 80% of the ocean front from Ocean City, Maryland to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware was empty.

[FoothillsNC]

the 96 hour frame is where Irene will be free to wobble or change directions, because the trough is shown to be well out of the way, so there's not much steering current. So the question is where is it at at that time frame? The GFS has it well offshore now, even further east than other runs...and thats because the first trough is so deep and strong it has a strong effect at pulling it north and staving it off. Its 300 miles or so off Florida, southeast GA coast, so thats quite a long ways out.

[ryan1234]

The 12z GFS has a pretty strong trough coming into the East on Thursday, and thats bound to affect and slow Irene, or atleast keep her well offshore Florida. From then, its hard to say, does the trough pull north totally and can Irene be strong enough to create its own environment, or path? Hard to see that pretty stout trough not affect her, so I think for certain now Ga and FL coasts are spared.

I agree with you on that one. What do you think about the current NHC forecast track?

[downeastnc]

Trying to compare Hazel to Floyd damage wise is like comparing apples to oranges. Both were equally devastating, but in completely different ways.

The damage from Floyd was done way before the center hit lol....in fact the center of Floyd passed right over us and while we had gust to 60ish tops it was nothing in comparison to the wind in Bertha or especially Fran which gave us several hrs of wind gusting in the 90-110 mph range and prolly 6hrs of winds gusting to above hurricane force.

Pressure falls indicate this thing is getting ready to go nuts gonna be a stronger than 90 mph the NHC has it at in 24 hrs.....

[UNCCmetgrad]

At 117 hours Irene well offshore due east of CHS moving due north. Second trough beginning to dig into the lakes. This run is looking like a Hatteras special.

[CharlestonNYC]

What a joke. What happened to everyone's certainty that the Bermuda High would not let it move NEward? I thought this was a "special" scenario...?

[FoothillsNC]

I agree with you on that one. What do you think about the current NHC forecast track?

Its been shifting east and I think will continue. The 84 to 96 hour time frame though hasn't arrived, and at that time, forecasts could change, so nothings set in stone yet. But I think they will edge eastward toward the NC/SC border. Just seen the 132 hour, and its brushing the outer banks, still no landfall.

[FoothillsNC]

Funny how last week, the models had the westerlies so far north at the Canada, US border. Now we've seen the eastern trough come in stronger and stronger, with not just one but 2 or 3 major strong shortwaves. All it takes is a weak trough to turn a storm out, and now we have atleast 2 strong ones. The first one acts as a block, and allows Irene to stall and strenthen over the Bahamas. As well as tug it north, keeping well offshore GA, and the next incoming trough affects it as well, and helps brush it toward the outer Banks. I bet we're not done, as the troughs come in stronger each run. You can thank the strong Texas Ridge for that this year.

[griteater]

wildre's in hog heaven

[Brick Tamland]

Its been shifting east and I think will continue. The 84 to 96 hour time frame though hasn't arrived, and at that time, forecasts could change, so nothings set in stone yet. But I think they will edge eastward toward the NC/SC border. Just seen the 132 hour, and its brushing the outer banks, still no landfall.

Latest forecast map I saw on WRAL.com has it hitting around Charleston. So you are saying it could be a lot farther east than that and just brush the OBX?

[Stormsfury]

Funny how last week, the models had the westerlies so far north at the Canada, US border. Now we've seen the eastern trough come in stronger and stronger, with not just one but 2 or 3 major strong shortwaves. All it takes is a weak trough to turn a storm out, and now we have atleast 2 strong ones. The first one acts as a block, and allows Irene to stall and strenthen over the Bahamas. As well as tug it north, keeping well offshore GA, and the next incoming trough affects it as well, and helps brush it toward the outer Banks. I bet we're not done, as the troughs come in stronger each run. You can thank the strong Texas Ridge for that this year.

The Texas Ridge is very strong. The guidance a few days ago had that ridge retrograding west into NM/AZ, and obviously that hasn't occurred. The weakness currently showing up is much farther east than originally progged as well currently

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm3&zoom=&time=

[NCSNOW]

Gonna see them pull everyone off the coast from GA the NC at the least and maybe even the Tidewater of VA depending on how far east this thing comes in. This thing could put TS force or better winds from N Florida all the way to Hatteras if it gets as big as some models suggest, without landfalling anywhere, I however think its gonna hit and everyone east of that point is in for a ride......if it hits the favored SC/NC area as a strong Cat 3 moving N then we gonna get spanked here....prolly as bad or worse than Fran wind wise.

I posted earlier and like Robert I'm leaning on a brunswick County landfall. Climo with Fran,Floyd,Bertha,Bonnie and Hazel make this a highly probable outcome. Every storm is different and to me this is so reminiscent of the Floyd track from Wednesday on. Floyd stalled and dragged in ever so slowly, which is what really laid the flood punch to eastern NC on top of already saturated ground. I think even those the track and similar circumstances being similar to Floyd, the main effects that will be remembered with this storm In my early opinion will be wind and surge. Those beaches in Brunswick face due south and since visiting Holden Beach annually since the mid 90's and seeing the road on the east end of the island now going right into the ocean thanks to the 3 big hits in the late 90's, I hate to think what possibly will happen if a cat 3+ hits with the buildup that has taken place over the past decade.

[ryan1234]

I mean we are still a week away from any sort of hit. Quite honestly after the last winter I don't like trusting the Euro or GFS for much of anything. I understand that it is a completely different forecast. But still.

[FoothillsNC]

Latest forecast map I saw on WRAL.com has it hitting around Charleston. So you are saying it could be a lot farther east than that and just brush the OBX?

of course it could. GFS just shifted east, all models have shifted east lately.Nobody knows for sure, and the deciding time frame is going to be that 84 hour to 96 hour period from now when its not being affected by any steering at all, other than its own momentum. It could be a brush along the coast anywhere really, but odds are highly against it coming in headlong to the SC coast now.

[deltadog03]

Looks like my landfall point is shifting east as well....Hard forecast...

[airmarci]

12Z Op GFS looks to agree with the eastern shift seen in the 12Z Tropical Models

[Sunny and Warm]

I mean we are still a week away from any sort of hit. Quite honestly after the last winter I don't like trusting the Euro or GFS for much of anything. I understand that it is a completely different forecast. But still.

First of all, we are NOT a week away. We are only about 4 and a half days away. Secondly, winter and tropical forecasting are completely different animals.

[Brick Tamland]

of course it could. GFS just shifted east, all models have shifted east lately.Nobody knows for sure, and the deciding time frame is going to be that 84 hour to 96 hour period from now when its not being affected by any steering at all, other than its own momentum. It could be a brush along the coast anywhere really, but odds are highly against it coming in headlong to the SC coast now.

Hope it keeps going east. We don't need a Hugo/Fran/Floyd again.

[Sunny and Warm]

of course it could. GFS just shifted east, all models have shifted east lately.Nobody knows for sure, and the deciding time frame is going to be that 84 hour to 96 hour period from now when its not being affected by any steering at all, other than its own momentum. It could be a brush along the coast anywhere really, but odds are highly against it coming in headlong to the SC coast now.

funny thing is that you gave up on rain from this in your area yesterday I believe, and here I am on the coast about ready to give up on Irene's rain today. LOL. I figured it would trend east, but not like this. I'll still wait for the G-IV data tonight to write the obituary here for Irene.

[Lookout]

the 96 hour frame is where Irene will be free to wobble or change directions, because the trough is shown to be well out of the way, so there's not much steering current. So the question is where is it at at that time frame? The GFS has it well offshore now, even further east than other runs...and thats because the first trough is so deep and strong it has a strong effect at pulling it north and staving it off. Its 300 miles or so off Florida, southeast GA coast, so thats quite a long ways out.

Yep, this run is quite a bit deeper with the first trough. It's quite a big change though so it would helpful if it shows it a few runs in a row. However, it does indeed to be increasingly likely that this storm is heading toward the carolinas. I still think there is little chance of this hurricane not striking the u.s. at some point along the east coast. In fact this run is one of the worst case scenarios in terms of damage because it rakes the entire east coast from nc to new england.

I knew yesterday the forecast tracks were in most likely too good to be true for us. I wish for once we would have a ga landfall and it move straight northwest. The worst part about it though is the orgasmic new england weenies going wild. Going to be a rough 5 or 6 days for us on the staff.

Also of note, If this trough is as strong as the gfs hows it to be, it's unlikely irene would be able to steer itself more west due to convergence to the north and strengthening the low to mid level ridge as steward said in the 5am advisory. My basis for the idea is that there is a period of building heights between the troughs. This run however will pull the storm so far north initially that it's a moot point.

What makes it even worse is we will be in the strong subsidence region around the storm with absolutely no chance of rain. I miss having a strong tropical system slamming us and it will be painful watching the east coast weenies squeal in excitement.

[ryan1234]

First of all, we are NOT a week away. We are only about 4 and a half days away. Secondly, winter and tropical forecasting are completely different animals.

Which is why I said they are completely different FORECASTS. I also meant to put we are still "about" a week away.

[downeastnc]

Looks like my landfall point is shifting east as well....Hard forecast...

These approach angles are forecasting nightmares and they will end up just pulling everyone of the SE coast lol. EVERY cane that has hit here since I have been old enough to track them ( Well except Fran) have been touch and go right up to maybe the day before landfall. IF the NHC had us getting the storm within 24-36 hrs we usually knew we would get it, but there have been storms like Dennis and Irene 99 that were gonna hit right up till land and then went east at the last minute.

[triadwx]

Well, Farmers Almanac nailed this one:

August 2011

20th-23rd. Pleasant, turning unsettled.

24th-27th. Hazy and humid, with scattered thunderstorms.

28th-31st. Hot and steamy. A hurricane threat for the Southeast.

[toad strangler]

All of the excitement of last nights north jumps are coming home to roost. The trend is your friend only for a limited time! Anyway, I suspect that there will be excitement once again if Irene ever appears to wobble W of where she is officially is supposed to be.

[FoothillsNC]

What makes it even worse is we will be in the strong subsidence region around the storm with absolutely no chance of rain. I miss having a strong tropical system slamming us and it will be painful watching the east coast weenies squeal in excitement.

yep. Been on the western edge of storms a lot here, and the skies are gorgeous when that happens. I guess that's one good thing for this area. Nothings etched in stone yet, and I won't be surprised to see things change a little when Thursday arrives ...depends on a lot of factors at play. The other good news is that when this gets caught up in the flow, with so much energy being injected, it usually changes the entire flow, like clockwork here comes a Fall pattern. Maybe we'll get into an early Fall season, getting rid of the heat.

[UNCCmetgrad]

Its been in the back of my mind since yesterday how models have overdone ridging in the western Atlantic in the longer range all summer. As discussed by others its been the pattern the last several summers and why we get so much northwest flow this time of year. Big ridge near the center of the country with troughs amplifying as the approach the lakes and northeast. I'm not jumping ship until I see how Irene looks after she interacts with Hispaniola. After that the track should be more certain but the trend is certainly not our friend for those that need rain in the interior Carolinas.