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Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted
  On 8/25/2011 at 12:31 PM, aanance said:

I know it's a different path than Fran but Fran was suPposed to skirt the coast and turned into us through Raleigh any shot of that?

One of the great posts from Phil last night showed shortwave energy that is now modeled to join up with Irene at about the same time it hits the coast. At that point the system is pulled west for an amount of time on the Euro. Now some other models are picking up on this and some have eliminated the eastern movement of the system as it heads north. I would think that if the energy merges sooner than what the Euro shows, that the western wiggle could start sooner and have a greater impact on eastern NC and even the eastern tip of SC. Timing is everything. The hurricane was originally modeled to be really slow and then the models sped it up quite a bit. Who knows what we will see, but I will be watching.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
  On 8/25/2011 at 12:37 PM, shaggy said:

Looks like the 06Z GFS came west again and more northerly on its heading also? If these tracks come close to being right and she is as big as forecasted then we still get strong TS force winds west to I-95 would be my bet.

What do the ensembles show?

Euro ensemble was near Morehead City

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AJF0602

AJF0602

Posted
Posted

I was going to go home to see the fireworks (Jacksonville, NC) but I guess it's looking like I can stay here at ECU haha.

  On 8/25/2011 at 1:59 PM, downeastnc said:

Well looking more and more like I am going to get within 30-60 miles of the center of this thing....charging all my cameras. Biggest question is how far west does this go I think its not out of the question for a ILM hit still but I bet Onslow Bay to Swansboro is a safer bet right now.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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  On 8/25/2011 at 2:12 PM, AJF0602 said:

I was going to go home to see the fireworks (Jacksonville, NC) but I guess it's looking like I can stay here at ECU haha.

Yep as we get closer to the event the chances of big moves are slowly dropping but this could still miss to the right but the current trend says get ready eastern NC.....the new big question is whats she gonna be intensity wise and since thats the most difficult thing to forecast I suggest planning for worst case which IMO would be a healthy Cat 3 say 120-125 tops more realistically though a 105-115mph storm is likely. Still one that strong would be the biggest one to hit on this type of track in living memory.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted
  On 8/25/2011 at 2:29 PM, packbacker said:

12z NAM is good 70 miles east of 6z GFS, probably 100 miles east of 0z Euro, it's almost a miss off the NC coast, clips Hatteras, still would be something to deal with but nothing like the GFS/Euro are showing.

NAM looks too quick

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packbacker

packbacker

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  On 8/25/2011 at 2:41 PM, deltadog03 said:

NAM looks too quick

The NAM itself hasn't shifted east, it's pretty much on the same track as it's 0z run, like you said just quicker. Interesting, it seems the other models were a little slower relative to previous runs.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
  On 8/25/2011 at 2:58 PM, AJF0602 said:

Per NHC discussion, they've shifted the track westward.

Pretty much direct hit on Emerald Isle now, it will be interesting to see if the models continue left or hold serve for the 12Z run if the EURO and GFS come left. Basically landfall looks to be a Cat 3 around 115 mph.

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Jon

Jon

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Posted

Southeast posters, what are your thoughts on NGFDL (GFDN) and the GFDL? Looks like the west solution of the GFDN is completely against itself...kind of like NOGAPS did yesterday with it's dramatic west run, thoughts? Does anyone know the reliability tropically of these models?

bHtwW.png

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
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This is what makes the geographical layout of Eastern North Carolina such a pain for forecasting hurricane landalls...

The biggest challenge that the NHC and the local NWS offices will have over the next 2 days is to pinpoint the exact landfall area...I've noticed the NHC still has Irene no farther west than 78W and they also have Irene moving in a NNE motion at landfall.

So...what if Irene made it past 78 West and what if she moves due north (as several of the models have hinted at) at landfall? With the layout of Eastern North Carolina, that could be a huge difference in landfall location and the amount of people being affected by Irene.

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