IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 15% risk for hail and wind, 0% tornado risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Shear is weak. So t-storms will probably be slow-moving and very hit and miss. But with steep mid-level lapse rates, some CAPE, we see large hail and damaging wind gusts. Flash flooding will be big issue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Shear is weak. So t-storms will probably be slow-moving and very hit and miss. But with steep mid-level lapse rates, some CAPE, we see large hail and damaging wind gusts. Flash flooding will be big issue as well. This is similar to yesterday, but honestly a little better. The cold pool aloft is even more impressive, a clear trigger in western PA where storms are already getting warned.. For whatever reason, our best severe weather days this season have been low shear days too it seems. Perhaps a seasonal trend, but coupled with the cold pool/mid-level lapse rates we've seen some tremendous storm stuctures in this area (even if they are of the pulse variety). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yesterday definitely overperformed especially after what the radar looked like around 3 or 4:00 compared to 4 hours later. This is similar to yesterday, but honestly a little better. The cold pool aloft is even more impressive, a clear trigger in western PA where storms are already getting warned.. For whatever reason, our best severe weather days this season have been low shear days too it seems. Perhaps a seasonal trend, but coupled with the cold pool/mid-level lapse rates we've seen some tremendous storm stuctures in this area (even if they are of the pulse variety). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yeah I have to agree, we weren't even slight risked yesterday and I saw quarter sized hail. It seems the days that should be more likely to see severe weather we don't get much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Right and almost every county in NJ/NYC metro was under a warning at one point. We've had days where we were in tornado or Severe tstorm watches and ended up with practically nothing Yeah I have to agree, we weren't even slight risked yesterday and I saw quarter sized hail. It seems the days that should be more likely to see severe weather we don't get much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yeah I'm not going to be fooled again just because of low shear. Like a seasonal trend in the winter, sometimes you just gotta go with it. Today is looking really good in my opinion if past severe days this season have meant anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yeah I'm not going to be fooled again just because of low shear. Like a seasonal trend in the winter, sometimes you just gotta go with it. Today is looking really good in my opinion if past severe days this season have meant anything. Your right I gotta say this summer has been quite the opposite of what you'd be expecting. We get the severe storms on days that really weren't all that favorable for them and when we get tornado/severe storm watches its practically been a bust quite a few times this year. Today is looking good today as far as severe potential again though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Severe watches have almost been our kiss of death this year. You can keep the watches, just give me some warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Severe watches have almost been our kiss of death this year. You can keep the watches, just give me some warnings Yesss spot on and the tornado watches its been a gauranteed dissapointment when there issued lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 This is similar to yesterday, but honestly a little better. The cold pool aloft is even more impressive, a clear trigger in western PA where storms are already getting warned.. For whatever reason, our best severe weather days this season have been low shear days too it seems. Perhaps a seasonal trend, but coupled with the cold pool/mid-level lapse rates we've seen some tremendous storm stuctures in this area (even if they are of the pulse variety). I agree. I don't think we'll see any organized squall line or tornadoes. But any t-storm would have potential to go severe quick and reach high severe levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Nice discussion from OKX. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Similar sounding to last night with TT a little higher. Some sun would go a long way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 shear is meager at best but this small shortwave and bend in the 500mb height field should be enough to get storms going and could keep them at least slightly more organized than your normal pulse severe storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 storms a really getting going in PA at the current moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN PA...SRN NY...NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191643Z - 191745Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH. SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...BENEATH GENERALLY LIGHT...BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW. A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET WITHIN THIS REGIME APPEARS TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ONE CLUSTERING OF STORMS NOW SPREADING INTO/THROUGH THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AREA OF PENNSYLVANIA. EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND IN FACT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE...WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE BECOMING MODERATELY LARGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING/INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER STORMS...BUT VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS COULD SUPPORT UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS OCCURS ...THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE STRONG WINDS ALONG A DEVELOPING GUST FRONT. BUT PEAK WINDS MAY GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...EXCEPT PERHAPS WHERE LOCALLY ACCELERATED BY TERRAIN FEATURES. ..KERR.. 08/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The sfc vorticity and 0-3km MLCAPE juxtaposition look very favorable for severe thunderstorm development especially into NW NJ and SE NY over the next 2 to 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 70+ dbz showing up on storms in central PA. It's either very heavy rain or some pretty big hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Severe thunderstorm watch just issued for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Severe thunderstorm watch just issued for most of the area. there goes the kiss of death, now we won't see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 105 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CONNECTICUT EXTREME NORTHERN DELAWARE EXTREME WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...AS WELL AS STORM/OUTFLOW MERGERS. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27015. ...THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 WWUS40 KWNS 191704WWP1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011WS 0791 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : <05% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 10% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90% &&ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27015 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO &&FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH ANDWATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU1.$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 If you take a look at the storm evolutions in PA right now its very similar to what happened last night. Big slow movers and when one storm pulses down another one takes over out ahead of the last one. They go briefly severe and if your lucky enough to be under one on the way up, you have a decent shot at seeing some hail today I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Cell over orange county is barely moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Thundering now here in Sussex County. Looks like there is a cell over Orange County, NY. Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect for Warren County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Big big convection just about everywhere, and I just had confirmed hail in Hewitt, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 2030 100 WARWICK ORANGE NY 4126 7436 QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN WARWICK (OKX) 2050 100 GREENWOOD LAKE ORANGE NY 4122 7429 QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN GREENWOOD LAKE (OKX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeTwentyFour Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I'm looking at the radar and it seems like these cells are moving East pretty well. What are the chances of the storms making it to Long Island? I gotta figure out if it worth washing the car to take it out tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like we have a nice long squall line forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 2030 100 WARWICK ORANGE NY 4126 7436 QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN WARWICK (OKX) 2050 100 GREENWOOD LAKE ORANGE NY 4122 7429 QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN GREENWOOD LAKE (OKX) Just a ten minute drive from where I live. Nothing but thunder here. Just goes to show how localized these storms can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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