kab2791 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 BEGINNHC_ATCF invest_al982011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108182101 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011081818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011 AL, 98, 2011081718, , BEST, 0, 116N, 126W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2011081806, , BEST, 0, 121N, 153W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 123N, 164W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 126N, 176W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This is one helluva organized wave, but not even showing as strong on models as the one forecast to leave Africa Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Wow impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Here is a motion view of it. http://www.sat24.com/en/wa?ir=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Where do you look to get the INVEST data that you have here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Nice lookin' wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Now an orange per the NHC...looking like this could be Harvey before anything else if 93L runs out of room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Now an orange per the NHC...looking like this could be Harvey before anything else if 93L runs out of room. Higher probabilities than 97L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Higher probabilities than 97L. Yeah no doubt, and to be honest models have been showing some lower pressures off Africa but not much until the wave expected to leave around Sunday. This could be a sneak system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Anything on the models? You should probably Google up some models. Euro develops it quickly but then weakens it a few days out as it drifts Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 This storm sure came out like a bat out of hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 This storm sure came out like a bat out of hell. Nothing special. Some storms have been classified nearly the moment they hit water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Nothing special. Some storms have been classified nearly the moment they hit water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 This one could be the first named of the 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I think this is going to be like 1995, just off-set 3 weeks or so. We may not get that season's totals now, but behavior-wise: wouldn't shock me if the Basin lights up with a flurry of activity over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I think this is going to be like 1995, just off-set 3 weeks or so. We may not get that season's totals now, but behavior-wise: wouldn't shock me if the Basin lights up with a flurry of activity over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Could've just said 2010 with the same effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 GFS says this could be a player down the road although a recurve would be most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It seems that at least for the next 24-48 hours this wave will be interacting with a convectively coupled kelvin wave (CCKW) which may aid it in becoming a tropical cyclone during this time frame. Beyond this period though, the subsident phase of the kelvin wave may actually work against it by increasing low level easterly flow with convergence aloft suppressing convection. In addition, the forecast track of 98L by the most recent track guidance suite takes it pretty early on to the northwest into the stable SAL and lower sea surface temperatures that don't favor development. Thus, its not surprising to see the ECWMF not do too much with this system beyond the first couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 06Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 May I ask someone who is knowledgeable to clarify something for me, please? What would make the TVCN have a straight downward drop, and the BAMD have a downward curving drop. I'm not sure if I've noticed something like that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 May I ask someone who is knowledgeable to clarify something for me, please? What would make the TVCN have a straight downward drop, and the BAMD have a downward curving drop. I'm not sure if I've noticed something like that before. TVCN is the consensus of several models, including the NOGAPS which is probably altering the consensus with it's crazy WSW motion plus dissipation at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Rather nice flare up this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hoping that it goes north of that upper-level low and finds less shear by Friday. Otherwise it will be blasted by shear late weekend bc of Irene.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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