Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active weather pattern in place over Texas will lead to increasing rain chances today-Tuesday night.

Large upper level trough over the SW US this morning has dug all the way down to the US/MX border. Downstream of this feature over TX SE low level flow has returned the warm and muggy air mass into the region with AM dewpoints running in the 60’s to low 70’s over much of the region. Sub tropical jet is coring across MX into TX adding some lift. Mid level cap layer is fairly strong and even with jet stream lifting, not expecting any thunderstorms over SE TX today.

Increasing moisture and low level convergence may lead to a few streamer type showers moving inland off the Gulf of Mexico today and tonight although thus far shower activity has been fairly spotty. Big storms will erupt later today over western TX as the main upper trough begins to eject eastward with strong lift and the surface front. Expect a linear squall line to develop tonight along the advancing surface front with severe wind and hail the main threats. Downstream air mass looks to remain capped off and the potential for discrete supercell formation ahead of the main line appears low.

Strong dynamics come to bear across SE TX on Tuesday as a cold front and trough approach. Appears the front will reach the area by mid afternoon and sweep off the coast Wednesday morning. Air mass becomes increasingly moist and unstable with PWS progged to peak near 1.5-1.7 inches and LI’s falling to around -2 to -4. Significant cloud cover should limit low level heating helping to keep overall instability on the lower end of the scale, but still expecting 800-1500 J/Kg of CAPE. Could be some decent low level shear around Matagorda Bay into the Victoria area early Tuesday and if storms are able to break the cap and root near the surface they could start to rotate in this region. Feel that capping will hold but this potential will need to be watched closely. SPC has outlooked the entire region for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening. Above mentioned factors will support at least a broken line of thunderstorms with the front Tuesday afternoon/evening. Still some concern on how strong the capping will be in this area, but latest guidance as trended wetter and weaker with the capping leading to a greater confidence of at least some kind of rainfall. Main severe threat will be damaging winds and large hail although a few tornadoes could be possible if discrete cells can form ahead of the main line. Will take a closer look at the severe threat Tuesday AM.

As for the much needed rainfall, widespread .25 to .75 of an inch is likely with isolated amounts of 1-2 inches especially east of I-45 and north of HWY 105 where the strongest dynamics will be found.

Strong front will sweep into the Gulf Wednesday AM with gusty NW winds and falling temperatures. Upper trough really does not clear the area until Thursday AM, but strong drying post surface front should result in little post frontal rainfall. Cold air once again expected over the region for Thursday and Friday with lows in the 30’s/40’s and highs in the 60’s.

Surface high will start to shift eastward Friday allowing the return to SE winds and moisture build up ahead of the next trough due in toward the start of next week. A highly progressive pattern with some chances for rainfall….

SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook:

[bubba hotep]

We had a quick hitter this afternoon that gave our portion of Collin county a quick soaking and we are getting another one right now. Looks to be more on the way as storms are building to our south and moving into Dallas county.

Long night on tap?

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 872

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

NORMAN OK 645 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 645 PM UNTIL

100 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.8 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

WACO TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF PARIS TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 870...WW 871...

DISCUSSION...WDLY SCTD ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAVE BEEN FORMING ACROSS THE REGION SINCE MID TO LATE AFTN APPEAR TO HAVE BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...PER LIGHTNING AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. STORMS LIKELY ARE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE. COUPLED WITH EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LLJ AND CONTINUED SELY NEAR-SFC WINDS...SETUP MAY YIELD A COUPLE STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.8 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. ...CORFIDI <div style="DISPLAY: none" id="TAB_WW_Test">Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Low Severe Hail

[Ed Lizard]

[Srain]

[Srain]

[DoctorMu]

I hope this gets a B-12 injection. Just some streamer spritzes here. CLL won't likely see the soaker like up in Ark. Mid-cap Aggie Dome uber the southern jet. Heck, NOAA is down, but we might see 0.25-0.50 in if we're lucky.

[Ed Lizard]

The now tornadic cell did good things.

Sun is back out, and the front isn't here. Just below half an inch from HGX storm total for my yard, and DWH, not far away, got 0.25 inches.

[Ed Lizard]

TORNADO WARNING

TXC291-339-407-082315-

/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0021.111108T2229Z-111108T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

429 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 427 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH CLEVELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

TARKINGTON PRAIRIE...ROMAYOR...SHEPHERD AND CLEVELAND.

[Flexo]

more scattered light showers today:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

506 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0137 PM TORNADO KINGWOOD 30.06N 95.19W

11/08/2011 F0 HARRIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

TREES DOWN IN KINGWOOD INCLUDING AT TWO SCHOOLS. POWER

OUTAGES. KINGWOOD VILLAGE ONE AREA OF DAMAGE.

This possible tornado touched down around Hidden Lakes Dr (contrary to the name, the lake is in plain view), which is on the far eastern side of town. I live on the NW side of Kingwood close to US 59 and saw not a gust of wind...

The heavy rain was fun, though

[msp]

pretty much nothing here at CLL today. will go down as 0.01" in the books, but man, what a disappointment.

[msp]

bleh. more boring post-CF weather for a couple days. maybe some precip next week from a system coming off the pacific, but i'm not holding my breath. long range on the GFS doesn't look exciting either.

[Srain]

An upper air disturbance is making an approach from the SW. I'm seeing some reports of elevated rains and even a rumble of thunder or two coming out of Corpus Christi WFO. Perhaps a sprinkle our two tonight as the short wave passes overhead for our area...

[Ed Lizard]

An upper air disturbance is making an approach from the SW. I'm seeing some reports of elevated rains and even a rumble of thunder or two coming out of Corpus Christi WFO. Perhaps a sprinkle our two tonight as the short wave passes overhead for our area...

I hope so, but the RUC, along with the GFS and NAM show a stout dry layer below about 650 mb. http://weather.admin.niu.edu/machine/fcstsound.html

The freezing level is about 3 km up, but the air is so dry below that, I wouldn't be surprised if some (if any) of what does make it down comes in the form of a little sleet.

[DoctorMu]

I hope so, but the RUC, along with the GFS and NAM show a stout dry layer below about 650 mb. http://weather.admin.../fcstsound.html

The freezing level is about 3 km up, but the air is so dry below that, I wouldn't be surprised if some (if any) of what does make it down comes in the form of a little sleet.

The Aggie Dome laughs at your leetle upper level diszturbance

[My Weather Today]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

815 PM CST WED NOV 9 2011

...CLIMATE...

HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL UPDATES (THROUGH NOVEMBER 8TH).

CLL`S YEARLY TOTAL NOW STANDS AT 14.14 INCHES WHICH IS 20.49 INCHES

BELOW NORMAL. CLL`S DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD (1917) HAD 16.66 INCHES.

IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL NOW STANDS AT 16.83 INCHES WHICH IS 26.22 INCHES

BELOW NORMAL. IAH`S DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD (1917) HAD 17.66 INCHES.

HOU`S YEARLY TOTAL NOW STANDS AT 18.92 INCHES WHICH IS 28.75 INCHES

BELOW NORMAL. HOU`S DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD (1988) HAD 26.65 INCHES.

GLS`S YEARLY TOTAL NOW STANDS AT 16.80 INCHES WHICH IS 27.28 INCHES

BELOW NORMAL. GLS`S DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD (1948) HAD 21.40 INCHES.

[msp]

The Aggie Dome laughs at your leetle upper level diszturbance

would need over 2.5" of rain before new years to not be the driest calendar year on record. don't see that as especially likely to happen at this rate.

[Ed Lizard]

Went outside before bed time under nice looking echoes, dry, dry, dry. Manly 3 km of dry air won the battle.

[Quixotic1]

would need over 2.5" of rain before new years to not be the driest calendar year on record. don't see that as especially likely to happen at this rate.

Sounds like a contest. I think you'll get it.

[Srain]

We had some light frost in NW Harris County this morning. Let the warmup begin with the return of an onshore flow.

[bubba hotep]

Anyone up for a little wind today?

[Srain]

SPC has a Slight Risk up for parts of Central and SE TX for Monday...looking marginal though...

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0233 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING NRN MEXICO/NM/FAR W TX

IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EWD THIS PERIOD...AND SHOULD

APPROACH THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE

PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WITH THIS SYSTEM ROUGHLY PHASED WITH A TROUGH

IN THE NRN STREAM...THE RESULTANT WILL BE A LARGE COMPOSITE TROUGH

AFFECTING MOST OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM BETWEEN THE

NAM AND GFS RESULT IN SIMILAR DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PATTERN.

GENERALLY HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DEPICT A WEAK LOW INVOF THE ARKLATEX

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING

ACROSS E TX. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE IN

CONJUNCTION WITH THIS SURFACE SYSTEM...AND THE ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM

TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA.

...E TX...

PERSISTENT NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED INTO E

TX...AND TO SOME DEGREE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AS

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS

OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH

SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS

WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS E TX AND ADJACENT AREAS AHEAD OF THE

SURFACE FRONT -- SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT.

THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY RAISES QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL

TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SWLY

FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. WHILE SUPERCELLS

WOULD BE POSSIBLE...LINEAR EVOLUTION WITH TIME APPEARS LIKELY...AND

ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR WIND/HAIL APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE

INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ATTM. THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD

WITH TIME...WITH SOME RISK POSSIBLY SPREADING AS FAR E AS THE

CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE.

..GOSS.. 11/12/2011

[Portastorm]

I'll just be happy with the quarter inch of rain if it verifies.

[Srain]

There are some interesting trends in the 12Z guidance today regarding the Pacific disturbance. While chances for significant rainfall are not that great, the models are suggesting a bit stronger trough (500mb vort) crossing S TX on Monday. Timing still remains questionable as the Euro is now slower and the WRF/GFS solution are the quickest. We shall see how all this shakes out on Monday...

[Srain]

I'll just be happy with the quarter inch of rain if it verifies.

A very interesting read from Austin/San Antonio this afternoon. As has been mentioned several times in this type of pattern, the guidance will throw curve balls and nothing will be set in stone until we see this storm system move onshore in the Baja Region and begin it's trek across Texas...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

311 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A SIGNIFICANT NOVEMBER RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO

EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS TRENDS HAVE MADE A BIG JUMP TOWARD A SLOWER

TRACK OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY SET TO MOVE THROUGH

THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 15Z SREF AND THE 18Z

NAM RUNS SHOW EVEN SLOWER TRENDS THAN WAS SEEN IN THE 12Z

RUNS...SO THE SHIFT OF POPS TOWARD LATER PERIODS MAY NOT BE

ENOUGH. THE CULPRIT TO THIS SLOWING TREND APPEARS TO BE THE UPPER

JET PUNCHING INTO THE WESTERN US TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP CUT OF THE

UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH QUITE A FEW

DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING

STORM SYSTEM...IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT OF

SEVERE POTENTIAL AND FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE CONSENSUS AND

TRENDS DOES SUGGEST ENOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PRESENT WITH THIS

SYSTEM TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL

BE OFFERED FOR MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL

AS JUST A HINT IN THE HWO.

THE SLOWING STORM SYSTEM AND THE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE

COULD PROMOTE A FEW CHALLENGES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE

PACIFIC FRONT ALLUDED TO IN EARLIER PACKAGES APPEARS TO BE A LESS

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE...WHILE A FRONTAL REINFORCEMENT FROM THE POLAR

AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE GAINING STRENGTH FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD

TRANSLATE TO A COOLER AND MORE CLOUD COVERED PATTERN AS ONE WOULD

SEE IN A EL NINO STYLE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. WITH LA NINA STILL

GOING STRONG...WILL STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY

MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE.

[Ed Lizard]

A very interesting read from Austin/San Antonio this afternoon. As has been mentioned several times in this type of pattern, the guidance will throw curve balls and nothing will be set in stone until we see this storm system move onshore in the Baja Region and begin it's trek across Texas...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

311 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A SIGNIFICANT NOVEMBER RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO

EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS TRENDS HAVE MADE A BIG JUMP TOWARD A SLOWER

TRACK OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY SET TO MOVE THROUGH

THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 15Z SREF AND THE 18Z

NAM RUNS SHOW EVEN SLOWER TRENDS THAN WAS SEEN IN THE 12Z

RUNS...SO THE SHIFT OF POPS TOWARD LATER PERIODS MAY NOT BE

ENOUGH. THE CULPRIT TO THIS SLOWING TREND APPEARS TO BE THE UPPER

JET PUNCHING INTO THE WESTERN US TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP CUT OF THE

UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH QUITE A FEW

DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING

STORM SYSTEM...IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT OF

SEVERE POTENTIAL AND FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE CONSENSUS AND

TRENDS DOES SUGGEST ENOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PRESENT WITH THIS

SYSTEM TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL

BE OFFERED FOR MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL

AS JUST A HINT IN THE HWO.

THE SLOWING STORM SYSTEM AND THE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE

COULD PROMOTE A FEW CHALLENGES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE

PACIFIC FRONT ALLUDED TO IN EARLIER PACKAGES APPEARS TO BE A LESS

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE...WHILE A FRONTAL REINFORCEMENT FROM THE POLAR

AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE GAINING STRENGTH FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD

TRANSLATE TO A COOLER AND MORE CLOUD COVERED PATTERN AS ONE WOULD

SEE IN A EL NINO STYLE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. WITH LA NINA STILL

GOING STRONG...WILL STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY

MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE.

0Z NAM and GFS have everything moved to Tuesday. Neither shows even of 1 inch, but GFS especially doesn't miss the HOU area much with more impressive rainfalls, with almost 2 inch amounts back in Central Texas.

GFS Tuesday morning soundings don't look like much severe wise, but 1.72 PW in mid-November, nothing to sneeze at.

[Ed Lizard]

Upper low still digging, and isn't she a beauty?

Local NWS seems to like at least the possibility of over an inch of rain late Monday through Tuesday

[Srain]

The models are still struggling with the Baja disturbance this morning. I suspect part of the issue is the storm is still offshore and has not been sampled well and is lacking any RAOB (upper air data). Timing is still an issue, but it does appear that a meso complex will move out of the Hill Country Monday night as the disturbance/trough swings by and guidance is trending much cooler with the front that should follow on Wednesday...

[Portastorm]

Yep, I'm liking our chances more and more of some beneficial rainfall!

[DoctorMu]

Things have certainly slowed on the GFS and we're looking down the barrel of our weekly Tuesday chance of rain. DFW and last week HOU had some beneficial rains. Just hoping for some action here in the middle w/ the sub-tropical carrying a few pineapples in our direction.

[Srain]

HGX seems to think Tuesday will be the day to watch locally. The Euro solution hints severe weather may be a possibility, but I'd like to see this system get fully onshore in the Baja Region before biting off on any solution two days out. That said, Austin/San Antonio almost pulled the trigger on Flash Flood Advisory/Watches, but decided a Special Weather Statement would be the best way to handle things today. Should the trends continue for widespread 1-2 inch rainfalls in our area, HGX may consider doing the same tomorrow. We will see...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

352 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-140300-

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-

GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-

MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-

FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...

ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...

BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...

BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...

SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...

PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...

CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS

352 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011

...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA OF

MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA

AND TRANSITION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING...

THEN CONTINUE EAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES

WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A

FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.