Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Msalgado]

Almost 2 weeks past our median freeze date of Oct 13 here in SF and we still have yet to hit below 32. We've flirted with it and we've even had snow but no actual freeze as of yet. It looks like we'll get it tomorrow night, however, as well as a good shot at some snow as well.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS under a tenth, and its probably right.

I see it everyday, dead trees in Memorial Park. Besides the chance of a dry lightning strike, homeless people with cigarettes or campfires would seem to be potential sources of a big flaming torch visible for miles.

At least the city knows about it, and is removing dead trees as funding permits.

Maybe it'll be a sparse urban prairie before the big wildfire comes.

[Ed Lizard]

Decent percentages but low QPF forecast from NWS HGX.

Euro seems most optimistic, around a quarter inch.

[Ed Lizard]

Hellish Winter conditions to arrive in Texas!

WWUS44 KAMA 261700

WSWAMA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

1200 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR WEST TEXAS AND

OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-011-016-270100-

/O.CON.KAMA.WW.Y.0005.111027T0000Z-111027T1800Z/

CIMARRON-DALLAM-HARTLEY-OLDHAM-DEAF SMITH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...DALHART...

HARTLEY...CHANNING...VEGA...HEREFORD

1200 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS

EVENING TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM

THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FAR WEST TEXAS AND

OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

* EVENT: TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE

EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR

WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND THEN MIX WITH AND TURN

OVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM CDT TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL

END BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO

SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

* IMPACTS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST

BELOW FREEZING MAY CAUSE SLICK AND SLIPPERY ROADS TONIGHT INTO

THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

$$

JORDAN/WFO LUBBOCK

[DoctorMu]

Moisture deepening and front slowing --> better chance of precip 0.25-0.50 in. Light is better than nothing at this point!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX332 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

DISCUSSION...

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER SE TX TODAYWITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUETO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEWOF THESE PUSHING ONSHORE. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP LATETONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NRN/WRN ZONES. PATCHY FOGWILL DEVELOP AS WELL MAINLY OVER RURAL AREAS. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVETRENDED SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.FOLLOWED THE 12Z NAM CLOSELY FOR THE FORECAST THURSDAY/THURSDAYEVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR NRN ZONES AROUND 15Z THEN PUSHVERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA...MOVING THROUGH THE HOUSTON AREA21-23Z AND OFF THE COAST 01-04Z FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED TEMPS OVERMOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT. MOISTURE WILLDEEPEN OVER THE AREA WITH PWS INCREASING TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES ALONGTHE FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE THU AFTN/THURSDAYEVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ABOVETHE SHALLOW COOL LAYER AT THE SFC. HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS MOSTAREAS BUT DID RAISE NRN ZONES TO LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPWILL BE MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. AMOUNTS WILLAVERAGE ON THE LIGHT SIDE (0.25-0.50 INCH) WITH LOCALLY HIGHERTOTALS POSSIBLE. STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THEFRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT. MODELSSHOW THE LOW CLOUDS LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILLKEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BYFRIDAY EVENING.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Much advertised cold front moving across TX this morning with significantly colder conditions moving southward.

At 600am the cold front extended from SE OK to just north of Austin to NW of Del Rio and slowly moving southward. South of this boundary temperatures are in the upper 60’s to near 70 while north of the boundary temperatures fall into the 40’s and 50’s including 44 at Wichita Falls and 32 with 1 mile visibility in light snow at Amarillo. Across SE TX increasing Gulf moisture is resulting in a few streamer showers over Matagorda and Wharton counties and across the Bolivar Peninsula this morning. High resolution meso models show additional activity developing late this morning and early afternoon streaming inland off the western Gulf as moisture slowly deepens. Rainfall amounts today will be spotty and generally less than .25 of an inch.

Front will reach our NW set of counties around CLL around noon and pass off the coast near midnight…a slow mover. Surface cold dome will build southward behind the surface front with temperatures falling into the 60’s and then the 50’s after dark. Lagging upper level trough and associated 850mb front will result in warm moist Gulf air mass being pulled northward over the top of the cooler surface air allowing for a period of favorable lifting and more widespread rains behind the surface front and ahead of the 850mb front. While coverage is expected to be widespread (60-80%), the amounts will be on the lower side as main rain form will be light with moderate embedded showers. Totals amounts today through early Friday will average .25 to .50 of an inch with a few isolated amounts of .75 to 1 inch possible mainly east of I-45.

Clouds will be hard to break on Friday as a thick low level stratus deck encompasses the area and becomes trapped under the frontal inversion. Temperatures will warm little with the clouds and highs in the low to mid 60’s appear likely. Areas where the clouds clear earliest could see highs into the lower 70’s. However looking at upstream temperatures this morning this air mass may be slightly colder than models are showing and with cold air advection continuing on Friday it will feel cool to cold.

Skies will clear Friday night and winds go calm as surface high pressure builds overhead allowing for excellent cooling conditions. Temperatures will fall toward the dewpoints in the lower 40’s and expect widespread lows in the low to mid 40’s with the colder locations possibly into the upper 30’s. Highs over the weekend will be in the 70’s under sunny skies.

Slow warming trend will continue into next week with models now in very good agreement on no frontal passage on Monday as the ECMWF has abandoned its idea of a strong upper level low/trough over TX on Halloween. Instead as suspected yesterday the ECMWF has fallen in line with the drier and warmer models. After today there will be little chance of rain through much of next week and the drought will continue to worsen.

Note: Tomball is now running a rainfall deficit of -38.43 inches for the period from October 1, 2010 to October 24, 2011

Although October 2011 has seen more rainfall than we have become use to over the past several months, it is typically one of our wetter months of the year and even with the rains we have seen this month most locations are running deficits of 1 to 2 inches for this October. On average after October we move toward our drier time of year (Nov-Mar) and given the formation of La Nina currently rainfall amounts for the next 3-4 months will likely run 40-50% below normal only worsening an already extremely severe drought situation. It is becoming increasingly likely that we will enter into next spring and summer with lake levels even lower than they currently are at this time! I will get out an updated drought statement next week.

[Srain]

Snow in Amarillo...

[Srain]

Hmmm...

[Ed Lizard]

Flexo got about 4 times the rain I did. He keeps a lucky horseshoe on his DVD player, no doubt.

[DoctorMu]

Flexo got about 4 times the rain I did. He keeps a lucky horseshoe on his DVD player, no doubt.

Houston had some spotty deluges - the UH/Rice game got a soaking. Only about 0.1 in in CLL

[Srain]

Another chance of rain and northern snow lies ahead next week as yet another in a series of strong fronts and a deep Western trough become established bringing down some cold Canadian air into Texas from Tuesday into Thursday...time to start looking at the patterns again and mjo forcing in late fall and winter during a La Nina pattern...

Dodge City afternoon long range disco:

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 3-7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD IS

ANTICIPATING EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL

PART OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE JET THAT COMES OVER

THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND BREAKS ANTICYCLONICALLY OVER THE

SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE JET STREAK THAT SUPPORTS THE

POSSIBLE ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK WAS OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC NEAR

JAPAN THIS MORNING AND LIKELY IS NOT BEING SAMPLED WELL BY THE

MODELS, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE

OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF IS QUICK TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR

THE 4 CORNERS WEDNESDAY AND IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS OR CANADIAN

IN PROPAGATING THE CLOSED CIRCULATION TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE

COUNTRY. HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE

MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS ARE FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN, ALTHOUGH A FEW MEMBERS

ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL

OVER THE PLACE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE

OPERATIONAL GFS.

IN THE TROPICS, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE

INDIAN OCEAN AS THE REMNANTS OF A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION

PROPAGATE FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60E. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL AND

WALLOWING CONVECTION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN THROUGH MID NOVEMBER. THE

GFS IS HINTING AT THE MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL ROTATING BACK TOWARD

PHASE 8 ON THE WHEELER-HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM BY 10-11 NOVEMBER.

ATMOSPHERIC RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, AS

WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A LA NINA REGIME. MOUNTAIN TORQUE STILL IS

SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BUT LIKELY WILL TREND TOWARD POSITIVE TERRITORY.

THE TENDENCY OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS

POSITIVE, AND THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO FALL WELL INTO PHASE 3-4 OF

THE BERRY-WEICKMANN PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM. PHASE 3 AND 4 FAVORS

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD

CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LARGE SCALE

FORCING WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL

PART OF THE COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS LIKE THE

STRENGTH OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO

FORECAST WITH MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION

FOR THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME, AND THE

OPERATIONAL GFS PROBABLY IS NOT A BAD SOLUTION. A FIRST GLANCE AT

THE 12Z ECMWF REVEALS THAT IT HAS OSCILLATED BACK TOWARD A MORE

PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

[Ed Lizard]

Just reading the SNE and NYC threads, if we get another snow miracle like 2009, nobody on this forum from SETX, except maybe Steve, probably has a snow board for scientific measurements. We'll be stuck with car measurements, and the airports.

I assume DFW area is in better shape to post snow obs.

[Srain]

A progressive and unsettled pattern will be the theme as we enter November. Guidance is suggesting troughing in the W and building ridge in the E. The Central part of the US will be the battleground for storms ejecting from the base of the trough heading N and E. The next front should arrive late Wednesday/early Thursday with a meager rain chances. Another storm system will eject out of the Rockies next weekend which would tend to lack enough moisture return from the Gulf to bring any rain chances to the area with another quick moving front on Sunday of next week. It does appear that this pattern may linger for a bit, offering clouds and a front every 4-5 days as storm systems dive SE along the West Coast into the base of the trough from the Gulf of Alaska. This tends to bode well for bringing down progressively cooler air that is situated in Western Canada. Snow pack continues to increase in Western Siberia and Alaska as well as Western Canada. All in all, it does look like a fast progressive flow and the Plains may see their first snow of the season later this week.

[bubba hotep]

Just reading the SNE and NYC threads, if we get another snow miracle like 2009, nobody on this forum from SETX, except maybe Steve, probably has a snow board for scientific measurements. We'll be stuck with car measurements, and the airports.

I assume DFW area is in better shape to post snow obs.

I didn't have a snow board in NoVA but several nearby posters did and I just always checked my rough estimates vs. their more accurate measurements (I always got more snow IMBY!). I think it will be hard to match last years snow totals up this way but wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple of good chances. I like late December into January as being our best bet based on my rudimentary analog skills. I can easily buy what Ellinwood is selling but don't think we will be that warm in Feb and would maybe go a tad wetter for DFW.

[DoctorMu]

Ed, this Bud's for you.

[Ed Lizard]

Ed, this Bud's for you.

I didn't really it was the season already. I wanna party likes its December 2009!

[Quixotic1]

I didn't really it was the season already. I wanna party likes its December 2009!

That warms the cockles of my cold November heart. 1 devoutly wish to pass. THat is my move day. an inch or two of slow would be grand!

[Quixotic1]

Ed, this Bud's for you.

Yowsa. Send it on! Gone in the 1800 and 0000 runs. Teasing us like that.

[Ed Lizard]

And then depression set in...

[Ed Lizard]

Well, it isn't just a temp forecasts with the fronts passing dry or with under a tenth, its a temp and fire forecast. Not quoted, but HGX discussion makes it sound like it could be frosty North of the HOU Metro.

.FIRE WEATHER...

SE WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW BRINGING BACK GULF MOISTURE WILL KEEP

HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO

PUSH THROUGH THE COLLEGE STATION AREA BETWEEN 9PM AND MID AND THE

HOUSTON AREA RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 2AM. FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE

COAST AFTER 4AM THU. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD START OUT RATHER

GUSTY NEAR 15-25MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT TO SEE 15-20MPH

WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE CLOSER

TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE

QUICKLY AS WELL BUT MAY NOT DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT UNTIL THE EARLY

AFTERNOON. STILL A WINDOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO REACH CRITICAL

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT RAPID WILD FIRE GROWTH. FIRE

WEATHER WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR THUR. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF

QUICKLY AND NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON FRI. SE WINDS

DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE.

quote from DFW, sounds even worse than a frost...

WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG WITH A DIRECTION

INITIALLY FROM THE WNW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A NW DIRECTION A

COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND

ADVISORY CRITERIA REQUIREMENTS...BUT THE NW ZONES MAY BE CLOSE

GIVEN THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WHILE MAX-MIXING IS OCCURRING.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S

ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. THE

SURFACE HIGH WILL CENTER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND

WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES MAY

REACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR MANY OUTLYING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE

CWA.

Hate Winter. Fall is ok. Took a half hour walkabout around the Galleria at lunch, short sleeve shirt, downright pleasant.

[msp]

lovely day. i'll take 81F in november whenever i can get it.

weekend looks even better with those warm lows in the mid-60s.

[Srain]

The cold front has entered the Panhandle and will sweep quickly S and E as the day goes by. Light streamer shower may develop this afternoon/evening ahead of the front as it nears are area, but not much in the way of rainfall. The big story with be the much cooler temps and gusty NW breezes that will bring another round of Red Flag Warnings for tomorrow. The front may bring the 'coolest' temps we have seen so far into the metro Houston area Friday morning. Low 40's and even upper 30's are possible and then a warm up begins for the weekend. Slight rain chances look in the offing and even better rain chances in N Central and N TX/OK with widespread rains and even some severe weather as a potent storm system takes shape the will likely become a major winter type storm for the Central and Northern Plains early next weeks. If the Euro is correct, there may even be some light snow in OK by mid week of next week as the trough ejects out of the Rockies. We will see.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS out pessimizes the NAM on the next front, but GFS dangles a carrot about this time next week...

[msp]

CF racing across the state now. looks like it just passed abilene. lubbock already in the mid-40s and areas north of amarillo sitting in the upper-30s. nasty cold for the middle of the afternoon.

HGX up to 60% for CLL tonight.

[Ed Lizard]

CF racing across the state now. looks like it just passed abilene. lubbock already in the mid-40s and areas north of amarillo sitting in the upper-30s. nasty cold for the middle of the afternoon.

HGX up to 60% for CLL tonight.

But it will be only a tenth, maybe two, in all probability. Fire Weather Watch already issued for tomorrow...

[DoctorMu]

But it will be only a tenth, maybe two, in all probability. Fire Weather Watch already issued for tomorrow...

Maybe 10 min of wind-blown drizzle as the front passed in CLL 20 min ago with wind gusts up to 50 mph. Just ruins the day or night when the dreaded WC is more accurate about a forecast, especially where a lack of precip is involved.

That is some Canadian air. It's 11°F in Castle Rock, CO at the moment!

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for today

Wind Advisory in effect until 700pm

Strong cold front has cleared the coast and is rapidly roaring southward into the Gulf of Mexico this morning. NW winds of 15-25mph have been common behind this front with gust to near 40mph. In fact offshore platforms above the sea surface have been gusting to near 45-50mph this morning. Strong cold air advection is sending temperatures falling into the 40’s and 50’s across the region and we should continue to see the temperature slide downward through about 900am before we start to get some recovery. Radar is also showing a few post frontal showers over Victoria, Jackson, and Wharton counties and this activity should end quickly this morning.

High pressure will be nearly directly overhead tonight producing a cold night across the entire region. Dewpoints falling into the 20’s this afternoon combined with winds going calm will result in surface heating today being lost to space. Temperatures will crater after sunset with Friday morning lows the coldest of the season so far. Expecting mid 30’s north of HWY 105 and a few areas could reach freezing in this area. Upper 30’s along US 59 and low 40’s near the coast. Freeze warning has been issued for areas just to our west across central TX, but the current feeling is that widespread freezing temperatures will not impact our area and thus no warning at this time.

Red Flag Warning:

Other issue will be fire weather today with strong winds and falling RH. Still looks to be a marginal day with winds being the main controlling factor and RH finally bottoming out around 20% west of I-45 this afternoon. Winds of 15-25mph will continue through the early afternoon hours and then begin to weaken as the surface high builds overhead. Fine fuels have recovered some due to recent rainfall and suspect starts even with favorable air mass conditions will be on the low side. However should a fire get started rapid spread would be possible especially in the ladder and canopy fuels which remain very dry.

Extended:

As quick as it will come today and tonight, the surface high and cold will be shifting east on Friday and SE winds return on Saturday as the western US trough reloads. Noisy SW flow aloft will combine with increasing Gulf moisture to produce at least a 20-30% chance of showers late Saturday –Monday mainly from activity moving inland off the Gulf. Next cold front is due into the region late Tuesday and this front looks to have a decent shot at rainfall with plenty of moisture to work with. Additionally, post frontal clouds and rainfall may linger into Wednesday under another round of cold air advection. We shall see if the models continue with this wet trend or if the ongoing drought wins out again.

[Ed Lizard]

Not a drought buster, but better than we've seen lately if it verifies. Total Totals suggest even some fun-derstorm activity possible.

[DoctorMu]

^We'll need it! 15°F dewpoint and 15% humidity in CLL currently. Winds 20 gusting to 30 mph. Desiccation imminent.

[msp]

33F!

felt at least that bad biking to class at 7:25am this morning. haven't been that cold in a long time.

strange to think lows will be just shy of 70F within a couple days.

looks like svr wx chances for next week decreasing though.