Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[DoctorMu]

Cold sucks. I'll tolerate it for crippling Winter precip, but otherwise I want 75 degree days and 50 degree nights November to March.

I'm all for killing any insects that are not desiccated and reducing the rate of evaporation if we're not seeing any precip.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Strong cold front will move across TX tonight and early Tuesday

Fire Weather Watch in effect for all areas on Tuesday, with Red Flag Warnings likely

Extreme to critical fire weather day expected Tuesday and possibly Wednesday

Strong cold front with a good shot of cold air moving southward through the plains this morning as the upper level pattern amplifies across the western US carving out a deepening downstream central US trough. Cold front is currently moving through the panhandle of TX and will reach the TX coast by mid morning on Tuesday. Impressive pressure rises behind the front will result in a period of very strong winds especially near the coast Tuesday morning with the frontal passage. Winds of 40-50mph will be possible along the middle coast into S TX as the front passes. A hot and humid day today will be replaced with strong cold air advection with temperatures falling at least 10-15 degrees with the frontal passage. Expect temperatures to start Tuesday in the lower 60’s with strong NW winds and only recover into the lower to mid 70’s by afternoon. Winds will remain strong Tuesday night so that will keep lows from bottoming out, but will still see widespread 40’s…it will feel cool with the winds. High pressure builds nearly overhead on Wednesday afternoon and winds will go calm after sunset on Wednesday night. With forecasted dewpoints in the mid to upper 30’s, overnight lows will tumble into the low to mid 40’s most locations by Thursday AM. A few protected and typically cool locations could see a little frost Thursday AM.

Guidance is showing a thin line of showers with the front early Tuesday and this appears reasonable given the strong forcing. There is little deep moisture to work with, so do not expect much rainfall, maybe a .10 of an inch at best. More favorable conditions for rain appear to be across east and NE TX where thunderstorms will be possible, but the SW extent will be greatly limited by lacking moisture and strong mid level capping.

Fire Weather:

Big concern will be fire weather Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Near critical to critical conditions appear likely on Tuesday as very strong winds and lower RH combine with dead/dry fuels from the ongoing drought. Winds will rapidly increase into the 15-25mph sustained range by mid morning Tuesday with gust to 30-40mph by early afternoon. Winds of this magnitude greatly increases the threat of power line starts from tree limbs rubbing lines or lines arcing in the wind…this is similar to the Labor Day weekend starts of several of those fires. Afternoon RH will fall to less than 30% across the entire region.

While fine fuels (grasses) have greened some with the recent rainfall, the larger ladder and canopy fuels remain extremely dry and capable of fast and hot burning. ERC values remain very high over much of eastern TX with pines that have dried. Greener finer fuels may help mitigate some of the potential starts, but any fire that does get started and gets off the ground into the ladder and tree canopies will burn very quickly given the low RN and very strong winds. Threat will be high for crowning and long lasting crown runs especially in pine areas. Ground operations will be extremely difficult given the high potential for rapid forward motions, forward spotting, and breaching on containment lines. Air operations will be affected by the strong winds and some aircraft may be grounded.

95L:

An area of low pressure now over the SE Gulf of Mexico continues to become better organized and a tropical cyclone appears to be forming. Deep convection has developed near/over the center with decent upper level outflow in all directions. The system is moving toward the NE at around 10mph and this motion will continue bringing a possible tropical storm to the SW coast of FL in the next 24-36 hours.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm losing hope even for Pacific tropical fun in Texas.

[bubba hotep]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...N-CNTRL TX...FAR NWRN AR/SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 172223Z - 180030Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG AND BEHIND SHARP SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY/MID-EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE BY 00Z IS 40 PERCENT. 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM THE OK/KS/MO BORDER AREA BISECTING OK TO A TRIPLE-POINT LOW JUST E OF SPS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE HELD IN THE 50S...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL TRACK SEWD INTO N-CNTRL TX THIS EVENING. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS INITIATION BY 00Z AND LIKELY INCREASING RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE TOWARDS 03Z. HOWEVER...A WARM SECTOR CAPPING INVERSION NOTED IN ACARS DATA INVOF DFW AND ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE FORCING SUGGEST TSTM UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STAY CONFINED SW OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT W/SWLYS AT 6 KM AGL PER NORMAN AND TULSA VWP DATA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. THE RAPID EVOLUTION TO A CLUSTER AND PERHAPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE INFERS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HAIL THREAT WOULD PEAK EARLY AND BECOME MARGINAL WITH TIME THIS EVENING. ..GRAMS.. 10/17/2011

[Srain]

The cold front is accelerating S this evening through the Panhandle. Wind gusts in the 60's range have been rather common as the front passes. Tomorrow will 'feel' much different than what we have experienced over the past 6 months. Enjoy the change...

http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/latestobs/current.html

[DoctorMu]

A line of storms is setting up whose southern end might sweep through Waco to Killeen through Hearne and Huntsville. NE Texas will get a soaker. Just hoping for drops in CLL between 3 am and 8 am tomorrow.

[bubba hotep]

A line of storms is setting up whose southern end might sweep through Waco to Killeen through Hearne and Huntsville. NE Texas will get a soaker. Just hoping for drops in CLL between 3 am and 8 am tomorrow.

We are getting our 3rd super wicked light show of this late summer / early fall season.

[Quixotic1]

A line of storms is setting up whose southern end might sweep through Waco to Killeen through Hearne and Huntsville. NE Texas will get a soaker. Just hoping for drops in CLL between 3 am and 8 am tomorrow.

Another band developing behind initial line.

[DoctorMu]

Another band developing behind initial line.

Another round for Tyler. We won't see squat but a dramatic wind shift in about 40 min....it's barreling through high and dry below Fairfield

[Srain]

A very nice and breezy fall day is on tap across Texas today. Red Flag Warnings are hoisted, so increased fire danger is the main concern. The models suggest a short wave in the NW flow for the coming weekend which may increase rain chances slightly for Sunday. Looking a bit further out, a stronger front with cooler weather that what we will see with this Canadian front may be in the offing near the 28th or so just in time of all those ghosts and goblins making their annual rounds for treats. We will see.

[Ed Lizard]

Winds will be gusty enough for tree limbs to rub power lines, I suspect.

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0351 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN TX...SWRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

MUCH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE

CNTRL/SCNTRL U.S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE SERN

U.S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WINDY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SCNTRL AREA

OF THE COUNTRY ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

...SRN TX...SWRN LA...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CNTRL AND SERN

TX AND MUCH OF SWRN LA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS

THE AREA. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH

ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH MOST TEMPERATURES IN

THE 60S AND 70S...HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT

RANGE. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE HUMIDITY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT.

THIS AREA CONTINUES WITH THE PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECENT

WEATHER HAS BEEN DRY. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS

PORTIONS OF NCNTRL AND NERN TX...TO THE NORTH OF THE CRITICAL

AREA...PRODUCING SOME WETTING RAINS WHICH SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE

FIRE THREAT.

[Srain]

Here is a youtube one of our local folks that is attending TTU posted "locally'...Nuts...

[Ed Lizard]

TEXAS HELL FREEZE.

I hate Winter.

WWUS74 KAMA 181450 AAA

NPWAMA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

950 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

OKZ001-002-TXZ001-002-006-182100-

/O.CAN.KAMA.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111018T1500Z/

/O.CON.KAMA.FZ.A.0003.111019T0500Z-111019T1500Z/

CIMARRON-TEXAS-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HARTLEY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GUYMON...DALHART...

STRATFORD...HARTLEY...CHANNING

950 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS CANCELLED THE FROST

ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH

REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS

THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES.

* EVENT: THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR

WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO

32 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

* TIMING: THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR

BETWEEN 3 AM AND 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS: THOSE WITH OUTDOOR SENSITIVE PLANTS AND AGRICULTURE

INTERESTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT THE PLANTS FROM BELOW

FREEZING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

[bubba hotep]

TEXAS HELL FREEZE.

I hate Winter.

Only b/c it doesn't snow in Houston

We had a pretty rocking winter up this way last season and I am feeling a bit of a repeat coming on

[Quixotic1]

TEXAS HELL FREEZE.

I hate Winter.

I need a good 20 degree night to take care of these blasted crickets. The recent rains seem to have caused an explosion. Only happens in drought years.

Only b/c it doesn't snow in Houston

We had a pretty rocking winter up this way last season and I am feeling a bit of a repeat coming on

I wish I were as optomistic.

[Srain]

What a nice cool fall morning. Lower 50's seem to be the theme in SE TX as we start the day and Red Flag Warnings are still in flying. A slow moderation should begin as we near the weekend with a very slight chance of some rain on Sunday from a short wave in the NW flow. The next in a series of Cold fronts have slowed down by a day or so, but still suggest cooler air than what we have now will filter into TX next Wednesday/Thursday bringing the coldest air of the fall season so far. We will see.

[Srain]

What's this I see from the HPC? A Blue Norther...

00Z AND 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF CMC/00Z ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS

WHICH IS A MODIFIED VERSION OF GFS ALL INDICATE A THREAT FOR A

HEAVY OCT SNOW EVENT IN THE CO FRONT RANGE MID WEEK ALONG WITH A

CA SANTA ANA OFFSHORE EVENT AND EASTWARD A TX BLUE NORTHER WILL

PLUNGE TEMPERATURES THRU THE SRN PLAINS WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS

TUES AND WED. NO CHANGES MADE TO AFTN FINALS FROM MORNING PRELIMS.

[Ed Lizard]

TXZ092-093-103-104-120>122-200400-

/O.NEW.KFWD.FR.Y.0002.111020T0800Z-111020T1400Z/

COOKE-GRAYSON-DENTON-COLLIN-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...SHERMAN...DENISON...

DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...

ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...

GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD

303 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

... [glow=#F0E1FC,2,300]FROST HELL ADVISORY [/glow] IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FROST

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY.

* EVENT...AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WINDS

BECOME NEARLY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

* IMPACT...THE FROST MAY DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE PLANTS AND

VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR

PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

This should also kill the grass and make wild fires easier to start at ground level. With all the dead trees, they just need to get up to the crown to really spread.

[Flexo]

What's this I see from the HPC? A Blue Norther...

The 18z GFS took a step towards the Euro. It would be a particularly strong blue norther for the end of October with a good chance of rain across Texas and maybe even some snow in the TX Panhandle. The Euro and CMC are still slower with the disturbance out of the Rockies, tho

Normally this kind of setup brings unsettled conditions for the state. But wouldn't you know it, 7 days away...

[Srain]

Normally this kind of setup brings unsettled conditions for the state. But wouldn't you know it, 7 days away...

The Euro ensembles did raise an eyebrow...

[Srain]

Another glorious fall day ahead. We managed the low 40's in NW Harris County this morning. Rain chances are still in the picture for Sunday with a short wave diving SE into TX in the NW flow and then eyes turn to the W & NW as a trough digs in the Intermountain West. There is still chatter of the first Blue Norther of the year later next week and increased rain chances as well, but the still no real agreement with a cut off low to our W as the Euro suggests versus the progressive pattern the GFS is showing. We will see.

HPC:

OVERALL WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD

WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NRN HIGH

PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING BUILDS UPSTREAM OVER THE COASTAL

PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPING LOW IN THE

GLFAK. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS FOR DEEPENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF IN

THE PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS

INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY DAY 6 WED. STRONG BUILDING PACIFIC

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NRN INTERMTN REGION AND NRN

ROCKIES/PLAINS AND DIVES SOUTHWARD AS MID LEVEL HTS FALL ACROSS

THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT...CLASSIC TX BLUE NORTHER WILL

DRIVES SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS WED AND THURS WITH MUCH COOLER AND

WINDY CONDITIONS. TODAYS UPSLOPE CO FRONT RANGE SNOWFALL THREAT

DOESNT LOOK AS THREATENING AS YESTERDAYS PRIOR SOLUTION. WESTWARD

A MODERATE OFFSHORE/SANTA ANA EVENT CONTINUES TO SET UP AS THE

STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS AND SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES WED/THURS.

[DoctorMu]

Livin' on a Prayer 2011

[Srain]

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...

NWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLNS TODAY AS UPR

SYSTEM GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES OVER REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...20-25 KT

SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST E OF LEE TROUGH. SATELLITE-DERIVED

PW DATA AND THE MORNING RAOBS SHOW AN ARC OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR

/WITH PW UP TO AN INCH/ OVER N TX...LARGELY COLLOCATED WITH

AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS MOIST AXIS SHOULD MOVE N THROUGH

THE DAY AND BE LOCATED OVER SRN OR CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTN.

COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW...SFC HEATING...AND

ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE

SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN ALONG AND N OF WARM

FRONT IN OK...WHERE MUCAPE LIKELY WILL AVERAGE AOA 1500 J/KG...

ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND PRESENCE

OF 35-40 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCTD SUSTAINED

STORMS AND EVEN A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. FOCUSED AREA

OF LOW LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND CONTINUED ESE AMPLIFICATION OF

DIFLUENT UPR TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A SMALL

FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS OR TWO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED HAIL/MARGINAL

WIND THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING SE ACROSS PARTS OF TX AFTER DARK.

[Srain]

There is still a chance for showers and perhaps some isolated thunder to the N of the Houston Metro area tomorrow. The SPC has a Slight Risk for parts of S/SE OK and N TX for tonight. As for the next cold front. Timing issues still seem to be the theme and just how much moisture will fall. The best guess would be a frontal passage sometime on Thursday. There still remains a chance of rain (probably near the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range and maybe some isolated higher amounts if the front is later in the day). The air behind the front is of Canadian/modified Arctic nature, so it will cool off lending to a great weekend for next week with dry conditions. There is even some mention of the S word for the front ranges of the Rockies in CO and NM and even parts of the Panhandle. We will see about that though. Enjoy the weekend!<BR clear=all>

[Ed Lizard]

12Z GFS full of depressing ungoodness.

[bubba hotep]

The active fall season looks to continue for us out here on in the NE portion of DFW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 869

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

340 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 340 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF

WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NWRN OK WILL

CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ESE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY LATE THIS EVE.

LLVL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY UPR 50S TO LWR 60S DEW

POINTS...HAVE COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING TO SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND

1500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX. EXPECT TSTMS TO INITIATE

INVOF SWRN/CNTRL OK 22-23Z NEAR A WRMFNT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE

MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY

WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STORM

NUMBER INCREASE...EXPECT TRANSITION INTO A POSSIBLE

FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...TRACKING ESE INTO N TX AND POSSIBLY THE

ARKLATEX REGION BY 06-07Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY

THREAT LATER THIS EVE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 30030.

...RACY

[bubba hotep]

We got absolutely pummeled last night!

[DoctorMu]

We got absolutely pummeled last night!

Wish I could stay the same - The SW cluster died in a slow, miserable way just E of I-45 leaving CLL and HOU high and dry again. NE Texas is nearly drought busted now.

praying for pummeling on THU

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Next strong cold front forecast for the middle to end of this week with a better chance of rainfall.

Passage of a strong short wave over NE TX yesterday with damaging thunderstorms over the DFW area Saturday night has left behind weak ridging in its wake. Weak southerly flow continues to bring muggy Gulf air mass inland across the region with shallow ground fog in some areas this morning. This will remain the story through early Wednesday before the next upper level trough and cold front move across the state in a now entrenched fall pattern.

Upper air pattern will amplify again allowing a cold Canadian air mass to surge southward down the Rockies the middle of this week reaching TX Wednesday. Timing of the advancement of this cold front and the upper trough remains question with the ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET models all showing a slower more cut-off upper level trough with the front due into SE TX Thursday evening compared to the NAM which has the fastest more progressive less cut-off solution with the front to the coast late Wednesday and the GFS showing an in between solution early Thursday. Given the type of cold air mass would tend to favor the NAM with the actual front bleeding southward ahead of the upper trough as cold air masses tend to advance southward quicker than models suggest. However I am leaning toward the slower ejection of the upper trough more into Thursday which spells a period of post frontal clouds and rainfall as warm moist Gulf air is lifted over the shallow cold air mass. Timing of the actual front is also difficult, but would expect a passage sometime Thursday across the area.

Most rainfall looks to be focused behind the front in the region of post frontal isentropic lift as the upper trough advances into the region Thursday/Thursday night. Should the NAM solution be more correct, there would be little post frontal rainfall. Will fine tune rain amounts over the next few days, but a widespread .25 to .75 of an inch appears possible with this system.

Other big headline will be the cold air with this trough with highs falling on Thursday and highs on Friday likely remaining in the low to mid 60’s. With skies clearing and winds calming Friday night lows Saturday morning will likely fall into the lower 40’s and possibly upper 30’s.

Fire Weather:

No major fire weather concerns this period as RH remains high and wind light. Frontal passage on Thursday will bring strong north winds, but wetting rainfall looks possible and if rains occur no fire weather concerns are expected. Very dry air mass will build into the region next weekend, but winds should be light.

[Srain]

The 'Cool Front" is scheduled to arrive Thursday morning with only light rain and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder and that will be about it for this front. Interestingly the Euro and GFS are at polar opposites regarding later in the weekend/earlier next week, though. The Euro shows a big cut off low right over head and the GFS shows a Ridge. Guess which one will be more correct as we head into Halloween/November...