Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[#NoPoles]

holy cow...look at those cells in TX and Mexico...rain for Jorge?

[OceanStWx]

holy cow...look at those cells in TX and Mexico...rain for Jorge?

And getting in the spring training spirit, both cells have been capable of baseballs at various points in the last few scans. They've been pushing 65+ dBZ well over 30kft a few times.

[#NoPoles]

And getting in the spring training spirit, both cells have been capable of baseballs at various points in the last few scans. They've been pushing 65+ dBZ well over 30kft a few times.

any tornadoes?

[OceanStWx]

any tornadoes?

Low level lapse rates are pretty poor, so most likely going to be a hail threat, maybe an outflow wind gust.

[#NoPoles]

man those cells look nasty...and i'm surprised to see them in Mexico as well

[andyhb]

Yeah, got a few nice elevated sups there.

[Ed Lizard]

Right hand deviants!

[Ed Lizard]

They should have an 88D around La Joya, where my wife's Fox News watching Tio Fito lives. Can't see squat approaching South Texas with the nearest radars in CRP, DRT and BRO.

I'd settle for an 88D in LRD.

How many bat consuming supercells do we miss with that gap in radar coverage?

[Srain]

The over night guidance suggests and bit more close core upper low will remain well to our W with embedded short wave energy rotating beneath that U/L in the SW flow aloft for the next 48 to 60 hours. Over running showers with a chance of some stronger elevated storms look to increase mid day Friday near SE TX before another break in the action on Saturday. The 'heavier rains Saturday appear to be focused further W over Central TX and the Hill Country Lakes where the past events have missed and should benefit that region of our drought parched State, and that is a good thing.

The guidance had suggested that heavier storms/rains of Thursday, with the cold front passage, would remain to our N and E and that has be exactly what has happened and where Flood Advisories are in effect near Lufkin and on N and E. The NAM (WRF/NMM) continues to advertise a round of heavier elevated storms moving near the Houston Metro area Friday as short wave energy swings across the region heading ENE along the boundary. On Saturday, a surface wave of low pressure looks to develop near Rock Port and traverse NNE as the U/L creeps slowly E toward the Texas Panhandle. Additional short wave energy streams in from the W with over running showers developing again Saturday night into Sunday. As the U/L finally begins to trek NE across N TX/OK, a line of heavier showers/elevated storms appears to swing through as the frontal boundary begins retreating N decreasing aerial coverage of rains by Sunday evening, if guidance is correct. All in all things are unfolding as generally expected and we'll need to watch radar trends later today to see if training cells set up mainly along and W of the HWY 59 corridor.

[wxmx]

holy cow...look at those cells in TX and Mexico...rain for Jorge?

Distant lightning last night and drizzle this morning only. Temps down from 95F yesterday to 44F a few minutes ago. Wednesday there was a mostly dry t-storm and a lightning hit somewhere in the mountain to the south of my house...it was burning yesterday....hopefully the drizzle will help matters.

[wxmx]

They should have an 88D around La Joya, where my wife's Fox News watching Tio Fito lives. Can't see squat approaching South Texas with the nearest radars in CRP, DRT and BRO.

I'd settle for an 88D in LRD.

How many bat consuming supercells do we miss with that gap in radar coverage?

One day, when there's a big scare for MTY, the MX government will install one nearby... I use the 248NMI BRO radar, as it's the only one that barely reach my area. Severe weather is always a surprise.

[#NoPoles]

Hi Jorge, you should come to the Conference

I hope that fire isn't burning in Monarch Butterfly habitat!

[baroclinic_instability]

Alright folks...now that we are getting into severe season threats...let us try and push potential severe discussions into the monthly discussions. Activity may be ramping up beyond day 7-8 if the progged pattern pans out.

[#NoPoles]

wow, talk about a prolonged snow event for New Mexico...

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Rainfall event underway across the region.

Strong upper level storm system over the SW US combined with stalled frontal boundary offshore, developing coastal surface trough/low, and weak disturbances in the SW flow aloft all producing periods of rainfall across the region since yesterday afternoon. Rainfall amounts so far have averaged 1-2 inches for many areas with a few locations over 3 inches.

Upper level storm will begin to translate eastward toward the TX/OK panhandle tonight into Sunday and this will bring the greatest chance of widespread heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to the region. Height falls over NW TX this afternoon will continue to force coastal surface low development near the low TX coast which will begin to lift northward tonight. Large swath of strong warm air advection just above the surface will continue to support bands of showers moving NNW off the Gulf into the coastal bend this afternoon and the coastal front and surface cold dome is overrun by warm moist air just above the surface.

As the stronger core of lift with the upper level storm moves eastward tonight, the low level jet will shift into eastern TX with PWS increasing to near 1.5-1.7 inches (2SD above normal for early March). Additionally, the coastal boundary offshore will attempt to retreat northward and may move inland by early Sunday morning adding a good low level focus for thunderstorms/heavy rainfall. Expect thunderstorms to develop tonight across central into north TX in the region of greatest lift and then spread ESE on Sunday. Storm motions will slow with time and training will become more common. With grounds now saturated from previous rainfall flooding/flash flooding will become a bigger threat on Sunday. Not very confident where the greatest rainfall potential will be, and not overly confident that the forecast models have a good handle on the meso scale situation which tends to drive these heavy rainfall events.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is likely with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches possible with storm totals from Thursday-Sunday approaching 3-4 inches and isolated amounts of 5-7 inches across the region.

A few thunderstorms will be possible tonight with the threat increasing on Sunday. At this time any severe threat should be just north of the area, but if the warm front moves inland then there could be a greater threat than current thinking suggest. Will take a closer look at the severe threat this afternoon.

Storm system will push eastward Monday, but air mass does not dry out greatly and moisture along with noisy upper level flow (disturbances aloft) look to keep some amount of rain chances in the forecast for much of next week. Likely a few days will have better chances than others. Temperatures will warm back to March levels of lows in the 60’s and highs in the upper 70’s with scattered afternoon showers.

[DoctorMu]

"You do not need to check the s/w on the 850mb GFS. This is not the meso scale you were looking for. Move along."

[Srain]

The over night operational guidance continues to advertise showers/storms will become active later this norning as the upper trough/low swings E and the closed U/L lifts NE into the Southern Plains. Mid level drying is noted on WV imagery across Central TX and the last of a series of short waves now located near S Central TX will trek E in the SW flow aloft increasing aerial coverage of rains throughout the morning. A band of S to N line of showers has developed across W Harris/Ft Bend & Brazoria Counties early this morning streaming rich Gulf moisture inland as the front has retreat N ahead of the approaching trough axis and a Coastal surface low continues to meander near Matagorda Bay as surface winds have turned SE assuring a warmer day and possible breaks in the clouds lending to destabilization and scattered storm development. The SPC reconfigured the Slight Risk area further S over night to include our NE zones as well. The NAM is the 'driest' of the models with the Euro/GFS/CMC & UKMet all suggesting showers with embedded storms developing along and ahead of the trough. It appears we may see a period of 12 or so hours of rainfall chances before all is said and done today. Where training sets up will be important and where flood potential may need to be monitored. We'll see how things develop as the day progresses.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0756 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO FAR WESTERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111256Z - 111530Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP/GRADUALLY

INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL

TX/EVENTUALLY FAR WESTERN LA. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT A WATCH COULD

BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WITH

MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD

NORTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ELEVATED

TSTMS ONGOING EARLY DAY ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...THE GRAZING

SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED/MOVING NORTHEASTWARD

OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THIS

INCREASINGLY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST

INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX/FAR WESTERN LA TODAY. AS SUCH...SURFACE BASED

TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST

SECTOR AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT...WITH

INCIPIENT SIGNS OF WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/INCREASING CG LIGHTNING

ALREADY NOTED NORTH OF HOUSTON VICINITY. ACCORDINGLY...THE LATEST

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS

THE 00Z WRF-NMM AND SPC EXPERIMENTAL SSEO...IMPLY THAT STORMS SHOULD

GRADUALLY DEVELOP/MATURE INTO LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITHIN A

PERSISTENT SSW-NNE CORRIDOR OF INCREASING MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL

FLOW. GIVEN THIS ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION/THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...SHEAR

PROFILES COINCIDENT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODERATELY STRONG

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING

WINDS/SOME HAIL.

..GUYER.. 03/11/2012

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[canderson]

I was in Pearland from Wednesday to tonight. Today at Hobby the airport was shut down as insanely heavy rain flooded everything, lightning hit the terminal and there was a funnel cloud off in the distance. It rained so much in those days, great to see.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Prolonged rainfall event has ended with widespread totals of 2-4 inches across SE TX from Friday-Sunday….see Hydro section below.

Upper level storm system responsible for the rainfall event over the weekend has moved into the Midwest this morning with a lingering trough axis draped across the nearshroe waters and then inland over SW LA. Radar is fairly active over SW/SC LA where this axis has stalled out and recently there has been some weak development off the upper TX coast. Will need to watch these trends this morning to make sure offshore activity does not try and build northward and inland.

While the air mass in the mid and upper levels has dried out, the surface to 925mb level remains extremely moist and fog has developed across much of the area this morning. Should start to see the fog lift and burn off by mid to late morning. Warm and moist surface air mass will remain in place for the next week or so as southerly flow is maintained off the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to cloudy/foggy mornings and partly cloudy afternoons with lows in the 60’s and highs near 80. The area will lie near the northern edge of the sub-tropical ridge over the SE US and Gulf of Mexico (similar to a summer like pattern) and with moisture levels marginal each day a few scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon. Noisy WSW upper level flow with a few embedded disturbances aloft could enhance these showers from time to time, but no time period stands out as a favored rainfall period over any other. Will throw in 20-30% each day through next weekend to cover this possibility.

Hydro:

Widespread rainfall over the weekend has led to rises on area watersheds.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the San Bernard River at Boling and East Bernard. The River is nearing flood stage at both forecast points and will likely rise above flood stage this morning. Impacts will be minor across Fort Bend and Wharton Counties.

Other rivers are rising across the area, but should remain below flood stage.

Weekend Rainfall:

Rainfall averaged from 1-4 inches across the region over the past 3 days. The highest totals (2-4 inches) were noted from the NW side of Downtown Houston across SE Montgomery County into central San Jacinto County and then northern Polk County. Another area of high totals was noted from the south side of College Station across northern Grimes County (4-6 inches).

3-day Rainfall Totals:

College Station: 3.91

BUSH IAH: 4.61

Hobby: 3.22

Galveston: 2.04

Bay City: 2.22

Caldwell: 2.43

Cypress: 2.30

Ratcliff: 4.67

New Ulm: 3.20

Tomball: 1.98

Conroe: 3.28

Palacios: 1.65

Sugar Land: 2.34

Wharton: 1.45

Huntsville: 2.89

Victoria: 1.85

[My Weather Today]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

401 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...

VERY SMALL SCALE AND SUBTLE FEATURES CREATED A GREAT HEAVY

RAINFALL AND FLOOD EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED OUT OF EAST TEXAS LATE

YESTERDAY RAN OUT OF STEAM AND LEFT A RAIN-COOLED CONVECTIVE

BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE LAST NIGHT. SOUTHERLY

FLOW BROUGHT HIGH AND EFFICIENT GULF MOIST OVER THE BOUNDARY TO

COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW WAS PARALLEL TO THE LOW

LEVEL BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING. THE RESULT

OF ALL THIS WAS A 15 TO 20 MILE WIDE SWATH...ACCORDING TO RADAR...

FROM EXTREME EASTERN ACADIA PARISH...THROUGH NORTHERN LAFAYETTE

PARISH AND SOUTHERN SAINT LANDRY PARISH...INTO WESTERN UPPER SAINT

MARTIN PARISH...OF 8 TO 14 INCHES OF RAIN FROM AROUND DAY BREAK TO

NOON. GROUND TRUTH OF NEARLY 12 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT THE USGS

GAGE LOCATED AT THE BAYOU VERMILION NEAR CARENCRO. FOR THOSE WHO

DON`T KNOW...THIS GAGE IS LOCATED BASICALLY AT THE TRIPLE POINT

WHERE SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISH

MEET.

THESE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE LEAD TO NUMEROUS REPORTS OF

FLOODING AND WATER RESCUES. WITH THE FLAT AREA AND THESE RAINFALL

AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH THE SOUTH FLOW AT THE COAST...IT WILL TAKE A

WHILE FOR THE FLOOD WATERS TO RECEDE. THIS AMOUNT OF WATER WILL

CAUSE MERMENTAU RIVER TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD AND VERMILION RIVER

AT SURREY STREET TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD. HARDEST HIT AREA WILL BE

THE BAYOU VERMILION NEAR CARENCRO WHICH IS OVER A RECORD FLOOD. IT

IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RISING TO BETWEEN 22 AND 23 FEET AND WILL

CONTINUE TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING ALONG THE BAYOU AND ITS

TRIBUTARIES.

CURRENT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH

CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE EARLY

EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN COOLED

BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STABLE. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD

BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA...

[My Weather Today]

Flash Flood Emergency continues...

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

530 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

NORTHERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

NORTHERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 524 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING CONTINUING

ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH NUMEROUS ROADS AND HOMES FLOODED. THE

LATEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES SHOW 12 TO 16 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN

SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN LAFAYETTE

PARISH...SOUTHERN SAINT LANDRY PARISH AND NORTHWEST SAINT MARTIN

PARISH.

THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH NUMEROUS ROADS

AND HOMES FLOODED IN THE WARNED AREA DO NOT DRIVE INTO THESE AREAS

UNTIL AFTER THE WATER SUBSIDES.

FOR BAYOU VERMILION AT CARENCRO...THE FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET. THE

CURRENT STAGE IS 22 FEET. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE BAYOU TO CREST

BETWEEN 22 AND 23 FEET. THIS IS WOULD MAKE THIS A RECORD CREST FOR

THIS SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 21.5 SET IN MAY 2004.

[Jon]

18z GFS looks interesting for central TX...10"+ rain in 24 hours, 12"+ storm total...

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

What you see is what you get type of forecasting this week!

Near summer like pattern is in place across the region this morning with moist southerly flow at the low levels capped off by drier flow in the mid levels. This is producing a saturated near surface layer with a thick blanket of nighttime stratus clouds and some sea fog near the coast. Sea fog this morning has been on the lighter side as the winds have stayed up some overnight. Observations still show dewpoints exceeding nearshore water temperatures by up to 5 degrees so a sea fog bank could form at any time over the next few days.

With a fairly zonal flow aloft over the region there is little in the way of any kind of trigger to work on the moist unstable afternoon air mass. A few isolated to scattered showers will develop during the afternoon heat each day, but they will be fast moving and produce only .01 to .05 of an inch of rainfall.

Over the weekend, winds will increase even more as low pressure deepens in the plains. Will likely see south winds 15-25mph and gusty this weekend. The next potent upper level storm system will approach the region from the western US early next week and current models are showing some decent rainfall and severe weather possibilities with this system.

2012 Rainfall:

The year has started out on a very wet not with a total of 15.78 inches of rainfall at BUSH IAH through March 11, which is almost 8 inches above normal. This is in stark contrast to last year which to this same point in time had only recorded 5.83 inches of rainfall to March 11. The 15.78 inches of rainfall makes 2012 the 4th wettest start to a year in recorded history for the city. Last year it took until November 8th to get the same amount of rainfall in the city.

The City of Richmond in Fort Bend County has had 20.30 inches of rainfall so far making it the 2nd wettest start for that location only behind the 22.20 inches in 1992.