Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Srain]

E-mail update from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall moving SE of the area late this morning.

Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches were recorded over much of the area. This rainfall on saturated grounds has led to significant rises on area creeks and some creeks have exceeded their banks.

In Fort Bend County:

Big Creek at Needville: Creek is overbanks and rising rapidly. Forecast show the creek rising to near moderate flood levels this afternoon.

Bessie Creek near Richmond: Creek is overbanks threatening homes around Pecan Grove along FM 359. This is an ungaged creek and no forecast are available. Law enforcement is reporting several roads near the creek are flooded and impassable.

Significant rises are also ongoing on the San Bernard River at East Bernard and Boling, but RFC forecast show the river not reaching flood stage at this time. Will need to re-evaluate this again this afternoon.

In Harris County:

Most creeks and bayous are within banks and starting to fall.

Will be keeping a close eye on the W Fork of the San Jacinto River at Humble (US 59) due to the large amounts of inflow coming from upstream.

Upper low is over SW TX and moving ENE with showers near the center. Could see additional rainfall develop this afternoon, but chances are on the lower side. However any additional rainfall will be direct run-off and result in additional rises on area creeks and rivers.

I must say that the models preformed very well on the rainfall placement and warm front movement with their hammering of the US 59 corridor, which is pretty close to what happened.

Rainfall Totals Overnight:

[bubba hotep]

I'm liking the look of the radar and getting ready for a good soaking

[Srain]

Some winter we are having...

[Srain]

What an absolutely gorgeous day out, and these type of days have been extremely few and far between since January. I hope everyone can get out and enjoy the sunshine and be thankful that those forecasts of a 'hot and dry winter' have failed miserably and that we have made a remarkable recovery in our ongoing 3 year drought.

[Ed Lizard]

Looking decent, if a bit dull, with comfortably mild temps late week.

Cool down late month/after next weekend, but it doesn't look huge. Broad trough over the central US, but the really cold weather on both the Euro op and GFS ensembles looks up toward the Canadian border.

Shorter term, Euro stronger with a trough over Mexico Thursday-Friday, (10 dm difference and closed) and thus shows a little rain that GFS doesnt.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

After a very active Friday and Saturday the active pattern of late that has delivered frequent and widespread heavy rainfalls will calm down some this week. Progressive upper pattern will continue, but Gulf moisture will have a hard time not only returning, but deepening over the region which will limit rain chances. There will be a chance of rainfall (slight) Wednesday into Thursday mainly along the coast and offshore and then possibly over much of the area late Thursday but it is expected to be light. Next strong cold front will cross the area Thursday night, but before then temperatures will rise steadily during the afternoon hours into the mid to upper 70’s by Wed-Thurs. May start to see some sea fog issues over the coastal locations by this evening as moist air mass flows over the cooler near shore waters. A fairly quite week overall compared to the last several.

Hydro:

Rivers continue to respond to the heavy rainfall from this weekend.

San Bernard River:

At East Bernard:

Stage: 17.82 ft

Flood Stage: 17.0 ft

Forecast: River has started to fall this morning and should fall below flood stage today.

At Boling:

Stage: 16.92 ft

Flood Stage: 18.0 ft

Forecast: River crested at 20.5 ft Sunday and is falling and should continue a steady fall.

Brazos River:

The river is above action stage at Bryan, Hempstead, and Richmond. At all forecast points the river is not expected to reach flood stage.

Trinity River:

The river is rising and above action stage at Liberty and Moss Bluff, but is not forecast to reach flood stage at either point.

Colorado River:

The river is above action stage at Wharton, but is not forecast to reach flood stage.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like this line of storms is expanding south just fast enough to clip us in Colin County

[Srain]

Friday is the arrival day for the trail riders in Houston. The 00Z WRF NMM suggests wet weather possible with a pesky upper low to our S and W. We will see.

[andyhb]

Definitely one of the bright spots this winter has been the rain that you guys have been getting which was probably as badly needed as I've seen for a region in awhile.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Warmth prevails ahead of the next cold front slated for Thursday night.

High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lowering pressures over the central plains will support a general southerly wind flow for the next 36 hours ahead of the next cold front. SSW to SW flow in the mid levels will effectively cap the region off as very warm mid level temperatures advect ENE from the higher terrain of northern MX. Next fairly decent intensity cold front will cross the area late Thursday night or early Friday morning and while there will be favorable parameters for thunderstorms with this front, do not think the warm mid levels will be overcome….thus a fairly low rain chances. While SPC has placed the SE part of our area under a severe threat, feel the best chances will be NE over central LA and eastward where a fairly significant severe weather event is possible. With that said, the global models are having a very hard time with the upper trough over NW MX and when/where/ and at what intensity it moves across TX. Yesterday models were in a little better agreement that the trough might cross close to the frontal passage time frame helping to erode the capping inversion and increase the threat of thunderstorms, now the models have slowed down the ejection of this system and shifted in further southward. Upstream jet stream patterns across the Pacific are fast and progressive and this should help eject this system out, but likely post frontal passage. This will help keep clouds in place on Friday with very cool conditions (highs near 60) compared to today and tomorrow (highs near 80). I am not overly impressed with the rain chances as most of the energy looks south of our region out over the Gulf and from the coastal bend southward. There is low confidence in the late week into the weekend forecast and some changes mainly with increasing rain chances are possible during the Friday-Saturday period should the Baja system eject northward some.

Cool weather will be in place through the weekend before the next system begins to evolve over the SW US and strong warm air advection returns early next week. A chances of showers and thunderstorms will return at this point with temperatures warming again. Longer range models show a fairly wet and cool pattern for the last week of Feb into early March with potential for shallow cold air mass to be overrun on both Gulf and Pacific moisture.

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) Severe Weather Outlook

[wxmx]

A more potent and farther south ULL has been part of the trend, and with that a colder solution...how cold? This would be one of the farthest south snowfalls this late in the season

[wxmx]

The GFS has been the coldest solution from some time now near MBY, which is rare, as it is one of the warmest most of the time when there's an interesting winter event since last winter. 18z solution yesterday was the extreme, showing some flurries here, which is unrealistic, and has since warmed back some, but the Euro and NAM have trended colder, with hefty snow to the mountains to my south....to which I might pay a visit Fri-Sat (a bit east of San Antonio de las Alazanas)

[bubba hotep]

The GFS has been the coldest solution from some time now near MBY, which is rare, as it is one of the warmest most of the time when there's an interesting winter event since last winter. 18z solution yesterday was the extreme, showing some flurries here, which is unrealistic, and has since warmed back some, but the Euro and NAM have trended colder, with hefty snow to the mountains to my south....to which I might pay a visit Fri-Sat (a bit east of San Antonio de las Alazanas)

We will need plenty of pics!

[wxmx]

We will need plenty of pics!

I'm about to make a reservation in a cabin there... <40mi as the crow flies, though it's about 60-70mi by road...2 hours in car... I'm just waiting for the 12z Euro. 12z GFS is promising...bullseye with probably near 10"...kids would be thrilled.

[Srain]

I'm about to make a reservation in a cabin there... <40mi as the crow flies, though it's about 60-70mi by road...2 hours in car... I'm just waiting for the 12z Euro. 12z GFS is promising...bullseye with probably near 10"...kids would be thrilled.

Good luck, Jorge. Sleet along the Lower/Middle TX Coast? A repeat of two weeks ago?

[wxmx]

Good luck, Jorge. Sleet along the Lower/Middle TX Coast? A repeat of two weeks ago?

12z GFS approves...from Eagle Pass to Corpus there might be a chance. The cabin is in the middle of the multicolored little spot in MX.

[Srain]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Very warm afternoon expected ahead of a strong cold front tonight.

Ongoing high wind event across west TX early this afternoon with TXDOT closing Guadalupe Pass due to wind gusts of 80mph+ and blowing dust reducing visibilities to less than 100 feet (100pm ob was W at 60g 76mph). Locally the upper level trough near Baja is providing an thickening mid and upper level deck of clouds over the region, but 100pm temperatures have already reached 85 at College Station and 83 at Huntsville under partly cloudy skies. Record highs may be tied or even fall across our northern counties this afternoon.

Strong cold front just entering the TX panhandle will plow off the TX coast tonight. Impressive capping noted on the morning CRP sounding will prevent much in the way of rainfall/thunderstorms will this front. Very strong pressure gradient and much colder weather will be in place on Friday. Northerly winds of 15-30mph will be likely and many locations (especially the coast) will likely meet wind advisory standards. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the lower 60’s under strong cold air advection and some mid-high clouds. Afternoon RH on Friday and very strong winds are pointing toward Red Flag criteria, but recent wetting rains and general green-up of fine fuels should help mitigate the wildfire threat over SE TX.

Trough over NW MX will eject across S TX Friday night and Saturday with moisture being brought up and over the frontal slope. Current indications are that the main forcing and moisture will be across S TX (maybe as far north as Matagorda Bay), but the air mass over SE TX will be dry enough to preclude much if any of the rainfall from reaching the ground. Better chances on Friday night and Saturday will be limited south of Matagorda Bay and over the offshore water of the Gulf. Clouds on the other hand look to be more plentiful and will likely keep highs in the 50’s for much of the day under continued northerly winds.

A warming trend with returning chances of rainfall into next week.

[Ed Lizard]

Steve posted the 18Z NAM at another forum, and it does appear possible Jorge could have a small miracle...

[wxmx]

Steve posted the 18Z NAM at another forum, and it does appear possible Jorge could have a small miracle...

The 18z NAM is now the coldest solution for MTY, but it is in the fringe...temps riding the 0C from 750mb to a little above the surface. It can be one of those cases where elevation in the city can be a real factor. Fortunately I won't have to do any hand wringing about temps (only about precipitation), since I will be >7000ft ASL in a cabin which I just reserved .

[Ed Lizard]

The 18z NAM is now the coldest solution for MTY, but it is in the fringe...temps riding the 0C from 750mb to a little above the surface. It can be one of those cases where elevation in the city can be a real factor. Fortunately I won't have to do any hand wringing about temps (only about precipitation), since I will be >7000ft ASL in a cabin which I just reserved .

Snow chasing? Will you right a post chase diary and post it as a new thread?

[wxmx]

Snow chasing? Will you right a post chase diary and post it as a new thread?

Sure .

No internetz out there, but can do a picture diary and post them if everything goes well. 0z NAM is slower with the energy and better precip wise, 0z is a tad warmer but better with precip...right now I'm mostly looking for precip, since temps won't be a problem up there (I would think). NAM is cold enough for some snow in the city even, and more than flurries, though surface is above freezing, so little would stick in that scenario. I think there won't be snow in the city proper, but the west part and higher ground could see some frozen delight.

Hard to believe I'm talking about snow after maxing at 88F today.

[wxmx]

70F 1.5hrs ago...now it's a bit windy

SPECI MMMY 241337Z 35026G45KT 4SM SCT080 OVC250 17/05 A2990 RMK 8/062 BLDU PRESRR ISOL SC

26 kts with gusts of 45kts

[wxmx]

Back from the snow expedition.

In a nutshell, it underperformed a bit wrt precipitation, but overperformed wrt wind and lightning & thunder...yep, I can strike out thundersnow from my bucket list .

More soon, including some photos.

[bubba hotep]

Back from the snow expedition.

In a nutshell, it underperformed a bit wrt precipitation, but overperformed wrt wind and lightning & thunder...yep, I can strike out thundersnow from my bucket list .

More soon, including some photos.

Thundersnow! Hellz yeah

[DoctorMu]

Back from the snow expedition.

In a nutshell, it underperformed a bit wrt precipitation, but overperformed wrt wind and lightning & thunder...yep, I can strike out thundersnow from my bucket list .

More soon, including some photos.

kewl Look forward to seeing the photos

[#NoPoles]

awesome, Jorge...

well, it was fun visiting your subforum for a while...i guess you could call that a 6wk vacation...it's back to SNE for me

[Ed Lizard]

Back from the snow expedition.

In a nutshell, it underperformed a bit wrt precipitation, but overperformed wrt wind and lightning & thunder...yep, I can strike out thundersnow from my bucket list .

More soon, including some photos.

I saw thundersnow as a child once delivering the paper, as a child, in Massapequa, NY.

Seen thunder-sleet in the Metroplex (including the famous Thanksgiving Leon Lett touching the ball game against Miami), never seen thunder-frozen here in Houston or Austin. You are a lucky man.

I did see a little sleet mixed in with rain in Ensenada, BC Norte, which was pretty amazing, considering its on the coast and South of LA.

Euro had me fired up for severe in Texas Thursday-Friday, but now I fear the dreaded capping may prevent much fun locally.

[JoMo]

Back from the snow expedition.

In a nutshell, it underperformed a bit wrt precipitation, but overperformed wrt wind and lightning & thunder...yep, I can strike out thundersnow from my bucket list .

More soon, including some photos.

I've had thundersnow, thundersleet and even thunder freezing rain. Thundersnow is by far the coolest to experience. Congrats.

[wxmx]

Yeah, I experienced thunder freezing rain too, as a warm tongue above us changed the snow to rain at the end when the low passed to our NW and N...probably a tenth of an inch or so. It was well modeled by the

Fri 12z NAM.

There's no video nor pictures about the cool meteorological features (bout of moderate snow with wind and thunder), as I was just trying to enjoy them with the family and it was really dark out there anyways. I'll quickly recap the succession of events and post some before and after pictures.

Feb 24th-25th

5pm. Arrived to a cabin about 6 miles east of Los Lirios, it was raining lightly at times with some sun rays trying to get trough the clouds, temp was around 40F with little wind.

7pm Lightning was somewhat frequent (a flash every 7-8 secs) at the distance, with some dampened thunders making it trough. Light rain most of the time, with brief showers of moderate intensity. Big boom at around 8pm. Wind was in the increase, I estimate sustained wind of 20-25mph with gusts maybe up to 40mph

8:30-9:00 pm Changeover to snow. Most of the time it was light, but when thunder got near it usually meant it was going to intensify or was during a moderate period of snow...the snow was falling sideways because of the wind.

9:00pm-3:00 am Mostly light snow, with lots of wind and the ocassional thunder, I had no radar, not anything other than my eyes really, but it felt like training storms, as the ligthning and thunder dampened and then increased after 30mins or an hour...there wasn't that much precipitation, I think we got sidebrushed by the deformation band to the east, as when I was returning (going west), there was a tight gradient going from snow, to almost nothing in about 12-14 miles....we were losing altitude (we were at 7800ft), but mountain peaks to the west had nothing.

3:00-4:00 am Still the ocassional thunder, but very far in between. Changeover to freezing rain. Wind started to subside. I was mostly sleeping at the time, so the times are approximate. Temps probably bottomed in the low 20s.

8:00 am It was time to enjoy and see the big eyes of my kids in surprise, as dad was right about the snow.

When we arrived

First snowflakes

In the morning..."What the...!"

Time to enjoy

On the way home

Overall a great experience for people not used to frozen precipitation.

[Ed Lizard]

^^ That kind of "if the snow won't travel to Jorge, Jorge will travel to the snow" is what makes American Weather great.