Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Srain]

While the NAM has been considered an outlier (mainly because of intensity issues and early development), that model has backed down on storm strengthening early and but does paint and aminous forecast track for SW Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast. Here are the rainfall totals that model is spitting out from the 12Z run. Coastal flooding from Lafayette to Galveston Bay would be a big issue as well...

[Srain]

Afternoon Update from Jeff:

Tropical cyclone formation likely over the NW Gulf of Mexico Friday/Saturday.

Residents along the TX/LA coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact these plans this weekend.

Confidence remains low, but starting to get better model agreement

Models have come into slightly better agreement today on the formation of a tropical system currently located over the SE Gulf of Mexico between SW FL and the Yucatan. Satellite images suggest thunderstorm activity is increasing in this area and NHC has raised the chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours to 30%. While there is good agreement on the actual formation of the system, there is poor agreement on where it forms and how it tracks. GFS continues to be the outlier solution showing a low developing off the LA coast and drifting E then NE across FL, this model shows the system getting caught in the trough passing across the northern plains. The GFS looks too deep with the trough and hence the E motion appears unlikely at this time. The ECMWF shows development S of The TX/LA border and then greatly deepens the system all the way down to a strong 968mb hurricane while drifting it W then WSW toward the middle TX coast. The CMC is similar to the ECMWF, but not as strong and more northward toward the upper TX coast. The NAM showing a steady NW motion then a slowing and drift toward the WNW/NW off the SW LA/SE TX coast. Heavy coordination with NHC/HPC and local WFO’s this afternoon are in agreement to lean toward the ECMWF, CMC, NAM, and numerous ensemble members suggesting a low forms over the central or NW Gulf on Friday and then drifts NW this weekend possibly making landfall somewhere on the TX coast, but also just as possible to remain offshore into the middle of next week.

Hard to really hang a forecast without an actual low center yet, where that center develops will be important as to where the system may track.

Intensity

One thing is for sure, models have really jumped upward on the intensity today with several now showing a full blown hurricane in the NW Gulf this weekend. Up to this point, the models have been keeping the system fairly broad and moderate, but now they really want to deepen it. Looking at the factors involved over the NW Gulf: Sea surface temperatures are very warm in the (86-90 degree range), upper level winds are forecast to be somewhat favorable (likely more toward the favorable side than not), however there is a large mass of dry air over TX and LA that could get entrained into the system hindering development. With all that said, you never want to leave a tropical system sitting over the hot Gulf this time of year for any period of time. Not very confident on how strong 93L may become as the models have just recently started showing this stronger trend. Overall things looks fairly favorable for development and development could be fairly quick.

Will continue to stress the very slow expect storm motion and potential for several days of impacts across the NW Gulf.

Impacts:

For now will temper back the model intensities, but follow closely the above mentioned track reasoning and let that help guide the expected impacts. Please understand that confidence is very low and significant changes will be likely over the next 2 days.

Rainfall:

Will start to see moisture increase on Thursday with scattered showers on the seabreeze, then bring rainbands into the coastal areas starting Friday. Will limit the western extent of the rainfall to the US 59 corridor for now. Should confidence build that the system will in fact move more W over the weekend, significant rain chances will be needed for all areas and totals will need to be raised. Widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches is possible S of US 59 Friday-Sunday and this could really be on the conservative side. HPC progs nail the offshore area with 8-12 inches over the weekend!

Tides:

Position of the surface center leads to a prolonged E fetch aimed at the upper TX coast with winds gradually increasing over the northern Gulf starting late Thursday. Large long period swells will begin to arrive on the coast by midday Friday and build into the weekend. Combined effects of large waves and fetch will result in some degree of coastal water level rise. Hard to pin down right now how much and where, but prolonged nature of this event could push a lot of water toward the coast over the weekend.

Winds:

Gradient will tighten into the weekend, how strong and how long is still up for debate, but could see at least TS force winds over the coastal waters starting late Friday and possibly lasting into much of the weekend. For now will not spread this wind inland much due to the uncertainty in the track, but as with the rainfall forecast above, if a westward track does develop, then winds will need to be increased over much of the area. Winds will likely back to the E following the seabreeze on Thursday afternoon and then back to the ENE and NE by Friday evening.

Residents along the TX and LA coasts should continue to closely monitor information on this developing tropical system.

[Ed Lizard]

HGX somewhat similar, thinks most rain will be East of 59, and thinks 93L will actually enhance fire threat with increased Northeast winds and lower surface humidities/higher temps due peripheral subsidence.

[Terpeast]

NHC now has 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the gulf.

The plot thickens.

[Ed Lizard]

NHC now has 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the gulf.

The plot thickens.

Too bad this appears to have about he same chance of dropping meaninful rain in Texas as Katia does hitting SnowNH's house.

(Been lurking SNE threads).

[Ed Lizard]

KHOU news websire reports only subdivision not threatened by the wildfire at Possum Kingdom was the one completely destroyed by fire in April, and the incident command post had to evacuate as the fire jumped several fire lines and approached...

[Ed Lizard]

Models coming into consensus on hating my lawn.

BTW, now that I water, and the surrounding gas leases are dry as dust, nightly armadillo raids on my lawn have it looking like a battle zone.

Gotta get more of that spray on mole repellant, but it seems to work less and less well against the vermin.

[Ed Lizard]

Well, probably the most reliable model, the 12Z Euro, has a couple of hundredths total the next week, and the models are coming into amazing consensus that all the trees in Memorial Park and along the highways will die.

But I remain 1/1024 optimistic that some ensemble perturbation of some obscure model nobody uses will show a shower for Houston.

On the brightside, before 93L gets too organized and concentrates the moisture and enhances subsidence, I have some hope that the sea breeze, already sparking a few showers Southwest of the Houston metro, might pop an isolated storm or two closer to home, and some extremely fortunate forum member will get a couple of tenths in a quick shower later this afternoon.

/always the silver lining.

[Srain]

After e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical wave over the Gulf of Mexico continues to become better organized.

Residents along the entire Gulf coast from TX to FL should closely monitor the progress of this system into this weekend.

Discussion:

Still not overly confident a tight surface circulation has formed, although one can make out a swirl roughly about 100-150 miles SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Heavy convection continues to develop and be sheared eastward off of this area. Appears a slow W to WNW motion of this swirl is in progress, although this may be a small vortex center within an overall larger circulation developing over much of the central Gulf. Oil rigs have been reporting 20-35mph winds today over the northern Gulf, so the pressure gradient is starting to tighten. Airforce and NOAA P3 aircraft and in the system currently and should have some word within the next hour on any kind of upgrade depending on what they find and if they can close off a center.

Track:

Big shift in the guidance since this morning with nearly all guidance now having this system move NW toward Louisiana and then picked up by the trough over the Great Lakes and shunted NE. This is a complete 180 degree turn around from the 00Z guidance clustering showing a NW motion then stall and WSW to SW motion down the TX coast. While agreement with the models is good, this is the first runs that have suggested this more NE motion especially the CMC and ECMWF which have been consistently toward the left (TX). Would like to see at least 1-2 more runs and get the aircraft data into the models before buying into this solution. Main point continues to be slow and prolonged impacts for some location along the Gulf coast. Current suggestion is leaning to most of the weather being off just to our east, will have to watch the trends closely!

Intensity:

With models now moving the system more to the NE it spends less time over the Gulf waters. SHIPS and LGEM guidance bring it to a strong tropical storm and this is in line with both the GFDL and the HWRF hurricane forecasting models. Should the system stall or meander more off the Louisiana coast, the intensity could be much stronger.

Impacts:

Will not make any adjustments at the impacts at this time as the latest model runs have thrown a big wrench in what may actually transpire. Would like to get a couple of more model runs out to make sure the latest trend off to the NE will/may hold before making big changes to the expected impacts.

If the more eastward solution does hold, main focus will be extreme fire weather danger over the weekend with increasingly gusty NE winds and dry air moving SW on the west side of the circulation. This would bring some of the worst fire weather concerns to the area that we have seen yet this year.

May send another update depending on what NHC decides to do here in the next hour and what the plane finds.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like a potential absolute disaster for LA with potentially 20 in of rain, and exacerbating a dome of stable air over Texas. Continuation of 100°F+ temps and if anything, worsening of the drought.

[msp]

Looks like a potential absolute disaster for LA with potentially 20 in of rain, and exacerbating a dome of stable air over Texas. Continuation of 100°F+ temps and if anything, worsening of the drought.

never thought that a tropical storm would wind up worsening the fire conditions here, but given the state's luck, it shouldn't be surprising.

not looking forward to that high of 99F for the football game.

[DoctorMu]

never thought that a tropical storm would wind up worsening the fire conditions here, but given the state's luck, it shouldn't be surprising.

not looking forward to that high of 99F for the football game.

Yeah, the NE wind is drying foliage further, sucking in drier, more stable air at the mid and upper levels, with clouds thus dispersing. The TC is getting some outflow (not good for us) and overcoming shear on the W side. Wish a westward solution were possible for this thing.

[Ed Lizard]

Drought continues for months or years, but temps and humidity should get better on Monday per the GFS.

[Santa Don]

Thought I would jump in here and say, "hello". Just signed up and looking around. I'm Don, from Baytown, Texas and like everyone else, we are powder dry. Sure was doing some wish casting for Lee to move in here for a day or two, but looks like it's not to be. Look forward to meeting everyone.

Don Galaway

[TXWXCHX]

Drought continues for months or years, but temps and humidity should get better on Monday per the GFS.

Our soil (Crockett) now has cracks 7 feet or more deep, approximately one in wide. The dryness of the soil now extends down to root level of many native tree species, especially young ones and they are rapidly dying. I have hope that an early cold snap would at least send them into hibernation early. But now they are dropping branches, shorting out power lines and starting fires! The trees themselves are dry, even big ones, burning easily and quickly. We have been soooo busy trying to put them all out; my house and several others nearly burned to the ground last week - others around the state did not escape the flames, though...

Any change in the weather will be welcome, but I am afraid of wind and low humidities now. Just keep all firefighters in your prayers please.

oh, and Welcome to American, Don!!

[bubba hotep]

Someone get Ed on the phone! Precipitation from Lee has made it as far west as the eastern side of the Bay. Look out Galveston

[Ed Lizard]

Someone get Ed on the phone! Precipitation from Lee has made it as far west as the eastern side of the Bay. Look out Galveston

Its breezy, fair mount of fair weather cu, and the edge of the cirrus shield is ovverhead. Too the distant East, the clouds look somewhat dark. Tall palms now have all their fronds pushed to one side by the breeze,, it is like an Autumn right after a cold front, except not cold.

Just because this is how the weather has been here since the 2009 snow miracle, I can safely predict the far edge of the light rain stops about 10 miles East of I-45.

[Ed Lizard]

Second power blinkage, and winds are gusting in excess of 30 mph by my visual estimates looking at the trees. Fast moving fair weather cu overhead and I can see the cirrus canopy, the edge almost overhead.

The winds reminds me of less than 24 hours before Hurricane Ike made landfall. I will claim this as my 2011 Tropical Season experience. No rain, unlike Don, with its arcus clouds generating storms as they moved over land in the afternoons, but total experience, including power failures, this is my 2011 storm.

Just checked, IAH gusting to 36 mph, my calibrated eyeballs work pretty well.

[Chinook]

My sister says she is driving down to New Orleans, taking I-59 and getting there in 5 hours or more. Are there any potential hazards to driving there? Bridges closed? Roads closed?

[DoctorMu]

Second power blinkage, and winds are gusting in excess of 30 mph by my visual estimates looking at the trees. Fast moving fair weather cu overhead and I can see the cirrus canopy, the edge almost overhead.

The winds reminds me of less than 24 hours before Hurricane Ike made landfall. I will claim this as my 2011 Tropical Season experience. No rain, unlike Don, with its arcus clouds generating storms as they moved over land in the afternoons, but total experience, including power failures, this is my 2011 storm.

Just checked, IAH gusting to 36 mph, my calibrated eyeballs work pretty well.

You've got your precip! The AggieDome is holding strong

[Ed Lizard]

At least a trace here.

Trace at DWH, 0.03 at IAH. Another thousand hours of this and the drought will be over.

[msp]

wow is it windy. gusting to 40 now here at CLL.

a guess a tropical storm is one way to get a red flag warning. 88F tomorrow should feel downright cold.

[Srain]

Very ominous e-mail just received from Jeff:

Red Flag Warning in effect for all of SE TX today and again on Monday

Wind Advisory in effect

Strong pressure gradient between Lee over LA and high pressure building southward producing 30-45mph winds this early afternoon. College Station just gusted to 40mph and Hearne TX, 46mph. Winds will continue strong this afternoon and again on Monday as a cold front moves across the area. A few of the dead/dry limbs in many of the dead trees may come down this afternoon with these kind of winds.

Extremely dangerous fire weather conditions continue across the area today and will worsen on Monday. RH is still up a little today along with some cloud cover especially east of I-45 (the western edge of Lee’s cloud shield). However very strong winds are making conditions favorable for rapid fire growth should a fire start. Winds of 25-40mph will continue until mid evening and then weaken overnight, but remain in the 10-15mph range. Fire yesterday in NW Harris County near FM 1960 burned 50 acres and threatened several homes.

Monday:

Critical fire weather will be in place as a cold front sweeps across the region. Potential for fast moving large wildfires given very strong surface winds of 20-35mph. RH will fall to less than 20-25% Monday afternoon behind a cold front as a very dry air mass sweeps southward. Dead/very dry fuels will easily ignite given the conditions and fire spread will be rapid. Strong winds will result in downstream spot fires and fire lines will likely be compromised. Good potential for long crown runs in tree tops making ground efforts dangerous, heavy air support will be needed. RH recovery Monday evening will be poor. This is about as bad as it gets fire weather wise in SE TX!

[Srain]

Wildfire has broken out in Colorado County...HGX W-88D...

[Srain]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FIRE WARNING

TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

259 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE

FREESTONE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

ALL RESIDENTS THAT LIVE WEST OF TEAGUE AND SOUTH OF FARM TO MARKET

1365 HAVE BEEN ORDERED TO EVACUATE DUE TO A RAPIDLY SPREADING

WILDFIRE APPROACHING THE AREA. RESIDENTS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE

ENCOURAGED TO LEAVE THEIR RESIDENCES IMMEDIATELY AND HEAD SOUTH

AND EAST AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FIRE. EITHER FARM TO MARKET

ROAD 80 OR 39 MAY BE AVAILABLE TO HEAD SOUTH ON TO REACH HIGHWAY

164. TAKE HIGHWAY 164 EAST UNTIL YOU AREA CLEAR OF ANY FIRE OR

SMOKE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO HEAVY OR DENSE SMOKE...NEVER CROSS ANY

BARRICADED ROADWAYS. MORE INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS

FREESTONE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE RELAY IT.

[Roy]

We were evacuated in spring due to a fire rapidly heading toward Midland out in West Texas. I have never been more scared in my life. These fires seem to be increasing as winds start to pick up again etc. Wonderful weather in Midland today...didn't even hit 80. But, no rain. We need the rain, and it's remarkable how poor the entire state is at this point. The entire state needs a Biblical deluge to even begin to wipe out the drought. By next summer, many of us may struggle to even have water to drink.

[msp]

another surprise:

forecast low for tomorrow morning for CLL is 54F

record low is 55F

[bubba hotep]

GFS has been hinting at possibly some moisture returning to N Texas in the long range but it still looks dry for places S of DFW.

[msp]

back to the 100s this week here. thought we might be done with them, but it looks like we'll add a few more days to our record.

[Quixotic1]

Bump.

DFW all time record for 100 degree days (69 days in 1980) tied today. Tomorrow's high is expected to be around 105.