Srain Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Morning e-mail from Jeff: Wet weather makes a comeback this period across the region helping to make more progress in our drought conditions. Active southern storm track since late October remains across the state and this morning’s water vapor shows yet another upper level trough digging southward down the western coast of Baja with favorable jet positioning downstream over TX to begin lifting of a moist Gulf air mass northward over the surface cold dome. High pressure that moved southward yesterday allowing an increase in northerly winds will move eastward today allowing winds to turn toward the east by early Friday. Rapid increase (doubling) of current moisture profiles are expected by early Friday morning. This combined with increasingly favorable lift both from 295K isentropic upglide and right entrance region of the upper level jet all point to rain developing from S TX northward late this afternoon into midday Friday. Will see clouds lower and thicken today with skies becoming cloudy by evening and rain developing northeastward up the coast overnight. Lack of instability should keep most of the rain as light rain or showers with stable profiles not suggestive of thunderstorms. If thunderstorms do form they will be elevated and not surface based with may be a small hail threat. System will be east of TX by Saturday morning with another surge of cool high pressure in its wake. Lows will dip into the upper 30’s to low 40’s for both days over the weekend with highs in the 50’s under northerly winds. Clouds may break up some on Saturday, but with the sub-tropical jet nearby, high clouds may once again blanket the area…as seen for much of this week. Next system approaches from Mexico on Sunday/Monday. Will repeat the Friday event again on Sun-Mon as the next storm drops into the trough off of Baja and then ejects NE across TX. This system may have a slightly better return of moisture and instability so some thunderstorms may be possible. Rains will develop from SW to NE Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday evening. This system will lack any type of post frontal cold air advection and will help usher in a return of spring like weather Monday-Thursday of next week. Third and final system looks the strongest and appears on target for the Wed-Thurs period of next week. Prolonged southerly flow will bring deep moisture into the area ahead of this system along with decent instability. Looks like a chance of heavy rainfall and possibly strong thunderstorms with this system toward the middle of next week. Rainfall amounts tonight-Friday will average .25 to .75 of an inch with most of this falling as a soaking light to moderate rainfall. Rainfall totals on Sunday night-Monday will average .50 to 1.25 inches. May see some run-off problems with the Sun-Mon rainfall as there appears to be a better chance of heavy rainfall. Grounds are wet and after another slow soaking rainfall on Friday grounds will be soggy come Sun-Mon. Flood waves from rainfall last week continue to progress down the mainstem rivers and should reach the Gulf of Mexico today-Saturday, but recessions, especially on the lower Trinity River will be slow due to ongoing gate operations at Livingston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro is delaying my Wednesday/Thursday system, and HPC final extended disco seems to support it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nice steady moderate rain driving in today, the lawn at home was already saturated, with standing water in the barley perceptible low spots. BIg airport (IAH) probably exceeds an inch before all is said and done. Sunday might be a menudo day. After Mass. Neither my wife nor her mother make it, its a dying art, but store bought menudo, not made with the same love, but a little cilantro, cebolla and oregano, and its ok. Popo's Mom, she is about 100, Mrs. Cantu, she still makes menudo No giant white corn in mine, watching my girlish figure. Why AccuWx converts to Eastern time, I have no idea... SUN 7A 12-FEB 1.5 2.0 1033 55 66 0.00 573 547 SUN 1P 12-FEB 7.4 2.6 1032 37 56 0.00 574 548 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 AccuWx and Myforecast prognostications are always good for a laugh. More GFS fantasy fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nice steady moderate rain driving in today, the lawn at home was already saturated, with standing water in the barley perceptible low spots. BIg airport (IAH) probably exceeds an inch before all is said and done. Sunday might be a menudo day. After Mass. Neither my wife nor her mother make it, its a dying art, but store bought menudo, not made with the same love, but a little cilantro, cebolla and oregano, and its ok. Popo's Mom, she is about 100, Mrs. Cantu, she still makes menudo No giant white corn in mine, watching my girlish figure. Why AccuWx converts to Eastern time, I have no idea... I'm not huge menudo fan but I certainly prefer it prepared fresh. I want to make sure those odd ingredients are as fresh as possible! A friends father makes a Cajun version of menudo but he tends to be a bit heavy handed with the organ meats for my taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 What drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Its been a fun Winter for snow and ice lovers in Texas. Just 400 miles and 3000 feet away. One product issued by NWS for: Lamesa TX Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 320 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND PARTS OF THE TRANS PECOS... .SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE AIRMASS IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR AND FAVORS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE NOON SUNDAY IN THE FORT STOCKTON... ALPINE...AND BALMORHEA AREAS. THE RESULT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND A MIXTURE OF WINTER WEATHER WILL TURN TO SNOW BY MID MORNING. SNOW...SOME AT LEAST BRIEFLY HEAVY...IS EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEMS THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND END TIMING AND WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. NMZ033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-058>063-067>070-074-075-111030- /O.NEW.KMAF.WS.A.0002.120212T1200Z-120213T0000Z/ CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-DAWSON-BORDEN- SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PECOS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL... SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON... BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...PECOS...MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE... KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...MONAHANS...CRANE... MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...ALPINE...FORT DAVIS...FORT STOCKTON 320 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012 /220 PM MST FRI FEB 10 2012/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * EVENT...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. * TIMING...SUNDAY * IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY IMPACT INTERSTATE 10 AND FEEDER ROADS IN PECOS AND REEVES COUNTIES ESPECIALLY. SNOW PACKED ROADS MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. * ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN AND LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 855 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012 .CLIMATE... WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES! RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER PLENTIFUL AS OF LATE. IS THE DROUGHT GETTING BETTER? IN THE SHORT TERM... YES! LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATORS ARE STILL RATHER POOR BUT ALSO SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT. HERE ARE THE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE LAST FIVE MONTHS FOR 2011-12 COMPARED WITH THE SAME MONTHS FOR 2010-11. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK SO FEBRUARY 2012 TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW. SITE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB TOTAL IAH 2010-11 0.02 2.71 3.04 5.05 0.69 11.51 IAH 2011-12 3.36 4.70 4.28 5.07 2.84 20.25 HOU 2010-11 0.07 4.76 5.84 4.10 0.34 15.11 HOU 2011-12 5.43 2.85 4.21 5.39 2.43 20.31 CLL 2010-11 T 0.90 0.81 2.99 0.61 5.31 CLL 2011-12 0.96 2.41 3.43 2.78 6.64 16.22 GLS 2010-11 0.11 6.90 2.13 3.86 0.67 13.67 GLS 2011-12 4.60 2.36 4.41 3.01 3.33 17.71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 A chance, albeit a slight one, exists for frozen precip here in Austin tomorrow morning! SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 438 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111245- LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO... ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG... BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS... BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS... SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY... PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES... CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS 438 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012 ...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING... AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNS A MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS READINGS CONTINUE DROPPING TOWARDS SUNRISE...SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET. AFTER SUNRISE...THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE TIME OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE THAT OVERRUNS SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...AND ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES DURING THE DAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX EVENT SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The 12Z and 18Z models suggest, to me, great gnashing and wailing of teeth TPL, AUS, HYI and SAT along I-35, as a cold rain falls. Marginal for an exciting morning rush in the Metroplex Monday, but thinking of the 1980 US Hockey team and the first Giants-Pats Super Bowl, or Texas defeating the semi-professional USC Trojans for the National Championship in the Rose Bowl, I think miracles do happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It is going to be a close call for us out here in the northern DFW burbs. I expect to see some flakes but it just takes a little eye squinting and head tilting and I can see us getting more than that. Maybe 00z will bring some surprise trends our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It is going to be a close call for us out here in the northern DFW burbs. I expect to see some flakes but it just takes a little eye squinting and head tilting and I can see us getting more than that. Maybe 00z will bring some surprise trends our way! May be our last shot for the winter. 18z didn't look good, but then again the models rarely handle local wintry events well. Anytime there's a slight chance, I have hope. Anywho, this cold snap assures DFW will not break the record for fewest days with a minimum of 32 or less in a winter (Unless there's a sudden warming before midnight tonight). A ray of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Heavy sleet storm under way in Del Rio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 832 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... .COLD DRY AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS... RESULTING IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THROUGH THE COLD DRY AIRMASS. THERE IS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FORM INTO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW. THIS WINTRY MIX COULD RESULT IN ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO THREE INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. TXZ171-183>189-121830- /O.UPG.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120213T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0001.120212T1432Z-120213T0000Z/ LLANO-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS... LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE 832 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM. * MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES * OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 People of Del Rio and the such- loving it when the models aren't quite right. I was doubting yesterday, and give another lesson in being glass half full optimistic! Oh, and HGX is concerned about tornadoes anyplace that gets warm sectored tomorrow!!! (Far SW/S parts HGX CWA) 000 NWUS54 KEWX 121437 LSREWX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 837 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0831 AM SNOW CAMP WOOD 29.67N 100.01W 02/12/2012 E0.0 INCH REAL TX CO-OP OBSERVER SLEET HAS CHANGED OVER TO PURE SNOW AND STICKING TO SURFACES. && EVENT NUMBER EWX1200057 $$ CJM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 A daylight video from Del Rio via a Pro Met buddy of mine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Nice shot from Lubbock this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 956 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 .UPDATE... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THRU 6 PM. NO CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT AREAS. MAY NEED TO ADD BURNET AND BLANCO COUNTIES TO WARNING BY AFTERNOON. LOWERED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND EXTENDED WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Kerrville is holding at 30°F and getting pounded with rapidly accumulating snow. Fredricksburg and Mountain Home changed over to snow. Sleet in NW San Antonio as the HIll Country makes the prophecy come to life.. Finger of winter mischief heading towards the capitol city - an Austin Massacre? The temp is 34°F, but the dewpoint is 19°F, so frozen stuff is likely. New Austin/SA Disco - Winter Storm Warning in place...I see Srain just posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I just called my dad for his bday(unfortunately he was rescuing my little brother who's truck broke a radiator 110 miles from home) and he told me it has been snowing off/on in Llano all morning as they try to figure out how to get home to Schertz. Bad timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Images of current weather in Texas and upcoming precip type. Apparently this may be a little snow and sleet for Oklahoma and a zone of freezing rain in Texas, but the models can't all seem to agree. Probability of freezing rain. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 GFS and NAM agree on very limited instability around Houston tomorrow below 700 mb, but HGX shows some glass half full optimism for interesting weather. And again mid-week. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVYRAINFALL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LARGELY DEPENDS ON INSTABILITY AS MODELS ARE ALL AGREEING THAT LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD REACH 1.3-1.4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT WITH A WEAK SFC LOW THAT MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS SET UP REALLY ENHANCES LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MODEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF TURNING IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THE NAM HAS 0-3KM SRH REACHING 700-900 M2/S2 OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL LIFT AND STRONG QG FRONTOGENESIS. STORMS MAY STILL BECOME STRONG/SEVERE GIVEN SUCH STRONG FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SPIN UP BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES AS WELL AS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS WELL WITH PRECIP WATER NEAR 1.4 INCHES BUT EXPECT RAPID STORM MOTIONS SO THINK QPF WILL REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS. STILL WARRANTS BEING MONITORED GIVEN THE FORCING IN LOW LEVELS. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY COULD ALSO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. PRECIP WATER MAY BE EVEN MORE THAN ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING AREAS OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH 2 STANDARD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL OR NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE ON CLIMO PRECIP WATER CURVES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL STILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT BRING A PACIFIC FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE WED WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR STORMS MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX. FORECAST WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS AS MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mixed rain and sleet outside, Near Veterans and 1960! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 515 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-130200- HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS- WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER- HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA- GALVESTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON... MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON... CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE... COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS... CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS... EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD... PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL... HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON... PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG... EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN... ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD... GALVESTON 515 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 ...LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET POSSIBLE THIS EVENING... AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND LOW WET BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ICE PELLETS OR SLEET TO MIX WITH THE RAIN THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET WILL DIMINISH. NO SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LIGHT SLEET WAS REPORTED IN SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY NEAR RAFER RD AND I-45 AT 505 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Lots of nice little sleet pellets coming down in Kingwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Light snow FTW now, although still above freezing and a Southeast wind, doubt it sticks or lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Light snow FTW now, although still above freezing and a Southeast wind, doubt it sticks or lasts. We are still waiting up here north of DFW. They expanded the WWA south to cover us in Collin County but not really expecting much more than some slush on the car in the morning, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Light snow FTW now, although still above freezing and a Southeast wind, doubt it sticks or lasts. Wow - we've been dry here. Just a little moisture and this low DP...c'mon! There's that big band turning to snow in Fort Worth and now Dallas. Enjoy, Bubba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Snow here in Frisco. If that red return on the NWS FWD site is correct and all snow, oh my oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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