Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Srain]

Some interesting trends over night via the longer range guidance. West Coast Ridge develops and the zonal flow ends with and big trough developing from the Plains on E. It is notable that the Sub Tropical Jet becomes active as the cold air plunges S from the Plains on E. The la la land GFS even hints of wintry mischief for the northern half of Texas. We will see. But a nice +PNA ridge and -EPO regime does appear in the works. Ridging looks to extend to the N Pole lending to an effective transport of cross Polar flow and strong Polar Vortex develops near the Great Lakes. All that cold in Alaska is flooded with warmth and the ever present vortex that has been present all winter season is finally displaced.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm taking some encouragement, as far as any possibility of Winter weather, from the main forum medium range discussion. Instead of possible stratwarm events weeks in the future, with sensible weather affected weeks after that, I am seeing mention of things closer in range, and things already trending potentially happy, like the AO.

Global models, on the other hand, leave me baffled as to what the weather will be, but the weekly OLR maps, the current Pacific satellite imagery showing convection West of Mexico, and at least the possibility of a deep trough or cut off low strong enough to tap that enhanced moisture from points South, leaves me glass half full optimistic on more beneficial rains.

Winter precip is always just a bonus in these parts. I do see how people get spoiled after a few awesome Winters up North, and then crash like meth addicts when a low-snow Winter hits...

[wxmx]

Big +PNA spike plus increasing chances of a -EPO past day 7. There's still not much of a cold pool in Canada, but will probably be by day 10. After the warmup this next 4 days, the weekend will bring the first of a series of colder fronts for our area, and although I think MBY will be close to the bullseye of the negative anomalies it will probably won't be cold enough that we get below the freezing point. Past day day 10, things might turn interesting. Split pattern, with a very strong West coast ridge and an active STJ might be in store Feb 7th+

[Srain]

Big +PNA spike plus increasing chances of -EPO past day 7. There's still not much of a cold pool in Canada, but will probably be by day 10. After the warmup this next 4 days, the weekend will bring the first of a series of colder fronts for our area, and although I think MBY will be close to the bullseye of the negative anomalies it will probably won't be cold enough that we get below the freezing point. Past day day 10, things might turn interesting. Split pattern, with a very strong West coast ridge and an active STJ might be in store Feb 7th+

I agree, Jorge. Patience is a virtue...

[wxmx]

I agree, Jorge. Patience is a virtue...

12z GFS heard me.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS heard me.

The Model Whisper!

[Quixotic1]

12z GFS heard me.

Whisper to the GFS again. 18z....ugh....

[DoctorMu]

Whisper to the GFS again. 18z....ugh....

I'm baaaaaaaaaack...

[Chicago Storm]

storm on the NW side of Oberlin, LA has had a decent couplet for several scans...

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

First item up this morning will be the fog over much of the region. Dense sea fog has developed and advected inland overnight with visibilities ranging from 1/8 to ½ of a mile at many locations. A check of the offshore buoys shows water temperatures in the 61-64 degree range from Port O Connor to Galveston Bay, while coastal sites are showing dewpoints in the 66-70 range. With dewpoints exceeding cold water temperatures by at least 3-5 degrees, the moist air is being chilled to saturation creating a dense sea fog bank. At times visibilities in the inland bays will drop to near zero and it is likely that many coastal sites will remain locked in the fog all day long. After a slow lifting of the fog across the inland areas today, sea fog will roar back inland after sunset tonight. Will continue this back and forth day/night game of sea fog through Friday night (or until the next cold front moves off the coast). Dense sea fog could affect vessel traffic into and out of local ports for the next 48 hours.

Short wave yesterday has left behind a weak diffuse low level boundary that extends from near Victoria to Richmond to Baytown this morning. Active showers have been developing along the eastern flank of this boundary overnight from roughly eastern Fort Bend County into Louisiana. Aloft a sub-tropical jet stream is overhead clearly noted by the SW to NE mid to high level cloud motions from Mexico off toward the NE. A weak disturbance is embedded in this flow over SW TX this morning and will track eastward today. Lift from this disturbance may help to develop showers and thunderstorms along the boundary mentioned above by late morning/early afternoon. Air mass actually becomes somewhat unstable by early afternoon with CAPE over 1000 J/kg and nearly no capping in the mid levels. Would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms develop under this pattern. Best rain chances would appear to be along the US 59 corridor toward the coast where the old boundary is sitting this morning.

Thursday will feature a drier and warm day as weak ridging aloft crosses the region ahead of the next potent storm system due in late Friday.

Friday-Saturday:

Cold front and upper level storm system will move into the region with active weather. Strong cold front will enter NW TX Thursday and move across the state on Friday and off the coast around daybreak-midday Saturday. Favorable moisture levels (PWS nearing 1.5 inches), decent jet dynamics aloft, and frontal lift all point to a good chance of showers and thunderstorms with the boundary from Friday afternoon-midday Saturday. Feel it is best to push rain chances to at least 60% for this period, but it is likely this will go even higher as the time draws closer. Cold air advection behind the front will drive temperatures back toward somewhat seasonable values on Saturday afternoon ending this warm spell (January ended the month nearly 3-5 degrees above the 30-yr average).

Bigger forecast dilemma comes Saturday night through early next week as there is little agreement in the models as to where/if a coastal low forms on the frontal boundary and what impacts that will have on the area. ECMWF model quickly develops a coastal low off the southern TX coast Sunday in response to a digging short wave out west. The result is cold and cloudy conditions on Sunday with rainfall developing from SW to NE during the afternoon into the evening hours with widespread rains then possible Sunday night-Monday. The GFS model also develops this feature, but it is much further offshore with mainly cloudy and cool conditions on Sunday and most/if not all rainfall remaining off the coast. GFS cross sections show a long duration of mid/high level moisture influx post frontal passage into early next week suggesting an active sub-tropical flow aloft. Really have no reason to favor either model at the moment, but the wetter pattern of late would tend to favor the ECMWF model. For now will just go with rain chances ending behind the front on Saturday afternoon, but maintain clouds into Monday of next week with temperatures only in the 50’s post front into early next week. Should the ECMWF model start to look more correct or the GFS trend in that direction, then temperatures will need to be lowered Sun-Mon along with much better rain chances.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0136 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011936Z - 012100Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA

THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY

WINDS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE

HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR

70...SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE

SATELLITE INDICATED A LARGE...AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS SERN TX INTO

SWRN LA WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR GLS TO ACP. NORTH OF

THIS LINE OF STORMS...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED OTHER ACTIVITY

TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN LACKLUSTER MID

LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 6 C/KM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ AND THAT THE

STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...UPDRAFT

STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL

GROWTH AND/OR STRONG WINDS. THEREFORE...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY

EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN.. 02/01/2012

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Much of the area is socked in again this morning…although the Houston metro areas and Galveston Bay region are surprisingly fog free at the moment…otherwise visibilities range from ¼ to ¾ of a mile across much of the rest of the region. Sea fog along the coast appears limited to Matagorda Bay where the low level boundary yesterday along US 59 has stalled this morning with sea fog widespread south of this feature.

Showers have already developed this morning over Victoria, Wharton, and Calhoun counties along the stalled low level boundary. Meso scale models show this feature lifting northward today in response to pressures lowering over west TX. Fog and low clouds should lift/burn off by late morning with heating allowing temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70’s over dewpoints in the upper 60’s. This will support a moderately unstable air mass by early afternoon. Weak disturbance of upper level energy in the upper level flow combined with the surface heating and the low level boundary moving northward will support at least at chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chances appear to be west of I-45 and along and south of US 59. Activity yesterday was much more widespread than models showed, and given a similar setup today, we may see better coverage than expected. Other issue will continue to be very dense sea fog over the bays and coastal waters as high dewpoint air mass continues to slide over cold shelf waters. As the boundary near the coast lifts northward, will likely see the sea fog develop/move back across the Galveston Bay/Bolivar areas by mid morning. Pressure gradient and winds will be on the increase by later today and tonight and this may help disperse some of the sea fog bank, but I have seen sea fog hang tough even with strong winds.

Friday-Saturday midday:

Upper level storm system currently over the SW US will eject into the plains forcing a cold front southward through TX and off the coast Saturday. Air mass ahead of this front will be moist and unstable by Friday afternoon with lift increasing, expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the heat of the afternoon. More organized thunderstorms (some strong) will move across the region from NW to SE Friday night and Saturday morning with the cold front. Not overly impressed with the dynamics nor the instability with this event, so while thunderstorms are possible if not likely, severe weather is not expected. SPC Day 2 slight risk outlook (see below) does near our northern row of counties north of Huntsville for Friday afternoon and night, but general reasoning is that any severe threat will be isolated. Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.0 inch will be possible across much of the region, but with PWS pushing toward 1.5 inches cannot rule out a few isolated higher totals nearing 3-4 inches.

Saturday midday-Monday:

Cold front will usher in a cold and shallow air mass with temperatures falling from the 60’s into the low 50’s during the day on Saturday. Gusty north winds of 15-20mph will make it feel even colder. Shallow front stalls across the NW Gulf in response to position of the upper level jet and another short wave digging into the SW US. Incoming forcing with this feature will help develop a coastal low on the front over the NW Gulf Saturday night/Sunday. Moisture will be forced up and over the surface cold dome resulting in the development of widespread rains from south to north late Saturday night through much of the day on Sunday. Feel guidance high temperatures in the upper 50’s on Sunday is too warm given the expected extensive cloud cover and developing rainfall…would expect some areas to hold steady in the 40’s for much of the day with highs maybe around 50-53 instead of the 55-60 being offered by the models. Best rain chances along with some isolated thunderstorms will be along and south of US 59 where best moisture and lift will be found. Additional rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.5 inches will be possible mainly near the coast on Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday:

Noisy and active sub-tropical flow will remain in place over the region with a frontal boundary stalled over the Gulf of Mexico keeping the area cool into next week (at least compared to what we have become accustom to of late). GFS is showing another disturbance helping to force another coastal low event by the middle of next week with rain chances returning. This event looks to be displaced slightly more southward and offshore…but this is still several days away and I would not be surprised to see things trend wetter as the pattern of an active sub-tropical jet and wet weather seems to be holding over from November and December. A very much positive sign given our still significant drought in place and low lake levels.

SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook:

[wxmx]

5" was the total precipitation, becoming the main rain event in the last 12 months... all 3 rain events were during a relative high amplitude phase 1 MJO wave.

Again?, it's astounding the MBY rain/MJO relationship this past year. This winter sure helped quench the thirst for TX and NE MX. Now if spring/summer can follow suit...

[My Weather Today]

Again?, it's astounding the MBY rain/MJO relationship this past year. This winter sure helped quench the thirst for TX and NE MX. Now if spring/summer can follow suit...

Now that's the million dollar question. Do you want to take a shot at an answer?

[bubba hotep]

Tornado watch is up area just NW of DFW. Posting from phone so no copy and paste

[DoctorMu]

hook echo w/ tornado warning @ Snook bearing down on CLL

[DoctorMu]

Tornado still on the ground near Wellborn heading toward the Texas Word Speedway and Pebble Creek area in south CLL until 7:30pm.

Widespread flash flooding, hail/quarter size.

edit: 7:45 Tornado warning discontinued, but big mesocylone signature remains. Brisk winds came out of the E about 10 min ago

4 in per hour+ rates of rain.

[msp]

absolutely crazy night. headed over to the college station mall for dinner and got an alert of a tornado warning on our cell phones... i was actually scared when i saw the hook on radar. we sat inside a bj's brewhouse for a couple hours; the place was overflowing with people and had huge glass windows that would have blown out had we been hit. just torrential rain, wind, and hail for the longest time, though, as the restaurant couldn't keep the water out and began to flood. we have over 4" from today and counting. still coming down outside.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Busy night across the area with slow moving thunderstorms producing another bout of excessive rainfall.

Since 400pm yesterday rainfall of 6-11 inches has fallen over Brazos and Burleson counties resulting in significant flash flooding. College Station recorded 4.11 inches of rainfall prior to midnight breaking a daily rainfall record for 2-3-2012. Widespread flooding has inundated much of Burleson County with nearly all roads across the county closed and impassable. In College Station and Bryan several roads are closed with creeks running well over their banks.

Cold front has caught up with the slow moving line of thunderstorms helping to increase the SE motion this morning. While hourly rainfall rates remain in the 1-2 inch range under the strongest cells, the training of this line is lessening. Scattered flooding problems will likely continue along this line especially as it moves into the more populated urban areas over the next hour leading to some street flooding.

Hydro:

Rainfall across the middle Brazos basin overnight will produce a major rise on the river from Bryan downstream this weekend. Since midnight the river at Bryan has risen 10 feet (5 ft in 2 hours) and is rising very quickly as extensive rainfall run-off is reaching the main channel. A flood wave will likely be generated on the main channel near Bryan and then begin to translate downstream to Hempstead , Richmond, and Rosharon this week.

Rainfall from yesterday has produced rises on the E Fork of the San Jacinto River, and the lower Trinity River, as well as Peach and Caney Creeks in Montgomery County and Luce Bayou in Liberty County.

Additional rainfall this morning and again on Sunday will delay flood recessions on these watersheds and may result in higher rises. Flood Warnings may be required today for some of the areas downstream of the excessive rainfall regions.

Radar:

[Srain]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/04/12 1053Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1032Z JANKOT

.

LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...

ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...HEAVY RAIN BEGINING TO NUDGE EAST

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN DEEP CONVECTION

THAT HAD BEEN TRAINING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT NOW TAKING ON A NE TO SW

AXIS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HELPS PUSH CONVECTION EASTWARD. ORIENTATION OF

CONVECTION IS NOW MORE LINEAR BUT NONETHNELESS STILL COLD TOP IN NATURE

WITH TOPS AS COOL AS -74C. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY

JUST EAST OF AREAS THAT SAW THE 4-8"+ AMOUNTS WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN THAT

FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL WANE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN STILL

IMPRESSIVE 1-1.5"/HR RATES AND EXPECT SIMILAR RATES AS COUNDARY CONTINUES

TO SLIP SE. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES DID SHOW 2-4" 3 HOUR AMOUNTS

ALONG A AXIS FROM LEE COUNTY ENE TO RUSK COUNTY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUCH

HIGH AMOUNTS THIS OUTLOOK AS TRAINING IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.

.

A SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING 3 HR AUTOMATED ESTIMATES SHOULD BE AVAILABLE

ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1100-1400Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SE AS FRONTAL

BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING .5-1.5"/HR IN DEEPEST

CORES. FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE REDUCED AS 3 HR FFG IS MUCH HIGHER

OVER THESE MORE EASTERN SPOTS.

[#NoPoles]

dang, it's super windy here in Albuquerque right now...

Steve, that's a whole lot of moisture in TX...and you already had to run your AC, it's still winter...hope it's not a sign of things to come...

Jorge, did you get any rain?

[bubba hotep]

Wild night out at Huntsville State Park. No rain until the storms finally pushed in about 4 am but mother nature put on an awesome laser show that lasted all night.

[wxmx]

dang, it's super windy here in Albuquerque right now...

Steve, that's a whole lot of moisture in TX...and you already had to run your AC, it's still winter...hope it's not a sign of things to come...

Jorge, did you get any rain?

Yep, some light rain and drizzle for most of the day...probably the same for tomorrow and most of next week. Actually the strong Baja low that's gonna dive deep into MX plus the strong ridging all the way to the arctic circle, in most circunstances would make me giddy like a school girl, because that's the pattern that have brought the rare once/twice a century foot+ snowstorm...but the PV has a strong grip and doesn't let go the cold...though the 0z GFS trended in the right direction, but there's still some way to get it where I would like it

The pattern in question:

.

[#NoPoles]

cold day here in ABQ...approaching lunch time and we haven't hit 40 yet...ugh!!! i'm dreaming about those false 60's i saw in the extendedcast...i don't like the cold anymore...i guess somewhere along the way i got old...

[wxmx]

As Steve would say....heh

12z Euro snowfall map @150

@156

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active upper level jet will remain overhead through much of the week producing mostly cloudy skies and cool temperatures.

This morning another upper level disturbance in the noisy SW flow aloft has crossed the Rio Grande River and is generating an areas of showers SW of San Antonio. At the surface high pressure has built southward behind the Saturday morning cold front with cold air advection weakening. Morning temperatures have fallen into the mid 30’s over our northern counties to upper 40’s near the coast under mainly cloudy skies. While I am wary of the disturbance to the SW this morning, the infiltration of dry air at the surface will likely keep rain chances on the low side today…much like on Sunday. Will continue to see mid and upper level Pacific moisture move over the cold surface dome, but any rainfall should be on the light side and confined mainly to our western counties.

Active sub-tropical flow aloft will remain in place for the entire week into next weekend and even the following week. However the main axis of the disturbances aloft looks to be south of our region over S TX and into the Gulf of Mexico. While clouds look to hang tough most of the week rain chances will be on the low side until Thursday.

Toward the end of the week a large upper level low pressure system will drop deep into northern MX/Baja region and this will begin to spread large scale ascent back across mainly S TX. Forecast models have really backed down on rainfall and amounts during this period over SE TX, but they have been bouncing around with the idea of another rainfall event for days now with timing and position of the upper level storm system differing on nearly each run. I am hesitant to buy into the drier solution currently being offered as the pattern continues to be one of wetness. Of greater concern appears to be the digging of the storm system pretty far to the south, which may end up keeping the majority of the rainfall over S TX and the central Gulf of Mexico instead across SE TX.

Another cold front will cross the area late Tuesday and help keep temperatures cool into next week (lows in the lower 40’s and highs in the upper 50’s to near 60).

Hydro:

Impressive rainfall over the last 4 days is leading to significant rises/flows on area rivers. While most rivers are high, they remain within their banks with the exception of the Trinity River.

Flood Warning is in effect for the Trinity River at Liberty, Riverside, and Moss Bluff. Flood gate operations continue at Lake Livingston this morning. The lake has risen to 1.34 ft over its conservation pool level and TRA is releasing 37,200 cfs into the lower Trinity River. Additional gate operations and increased releases are possible today as upstream flood waves are passed through the system.

Trinity River at Liberty:

Current Stage: 26.27 Ft

Flood Stage: 26.0ft

Forecast: Slow rise to 27.7ft by early Wednesday morning. At 27.0 ft moderate low land flooding begins with several roads into subdivisions north of Liberty flooded cutting off residents. River is forecast to remain above flood stage through next Saturday.

Trinity River at Riverside:

Current Stage: 133.56 ft

Flood Stage: 134.0ft

Forecast: River crested at 134.0 ft yesterday morning and is in a slow fall. The river will continue falling through Friday.

Trinity River at Moss Bluff:

Current Stage: 14.59 ft

Flood Stage: 15.0ft

Forecast: The river will rise slowly to near 16.5 ft by Friday and hold. At levels above 15 ft flooding of rural land upstream and downstream of the gage occurs.

[Ed Lizard]

Snook, TX EF-2 tornado damage photographed by a KHOU-TV 11 weather forum member. And HGX Facebook page radar cap

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS hr 336 FTW

[Ed Lizard]

18z GFS hr 336 FTW

I'd rather the GFS show big storms in a week before the resolution chop than heavy precip with marginal surface temps for snow, even in DFW (and not in HOU) in two weeks well after the lobotomy..

[JoMo]

I'd rather the GFS show big storms in a week before the resolution chop than heavy precip with marginal surface temps for snow, even in DFW (and not in HOU) in two weeks well after the lobotomy..

lol, wouldn't everyone? I'm just happy it's showing fantasy storms.