Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Srain]

Fred Schumde of ImpactWeather fame had some interesting thoughts today via chron.com...

http://blog.chron.co...asts-this-year/

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS/Canadian solutions appear to be fairly similar cutting off a closed upper low near the Big Bend Region and heavy rains with severe potential across Texas as a Coastal Low develops near the Lower Texas Coast next Wednesday...

[Ed Lizard]

I'm cautiously optimistic. Fairly meager low level instability, but this is 6 am (can't do noon on the NIU site), mid level lapse rates nice, small timing differences and a track that warm sectors the coast, as I said, cautiously optimistic.

[Srain]

While the GFS was too progressive, the Euro/Canadian/UKMet solution do cut off a potent U/L near the Big Bend Region and bring copious rains/severe storms chance to Texas and our area. In fact the ensembles are agreeing with a cut off solution and a slower progression E of the U/L keeping rain chances going until late next week. HGX has chosen this solution along the the HPC as the more likely outcome.

Looking ahead, the Euro is hinting a switch to a 'colder pattern' for very late January/early February may be in the cards. An active pattern is developing, so enjoy these 'calm warm days' while they last...

[Srain]

HPC morning update:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

743 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 24 2012 - 12Z FRI JAN 27 2012

CHANGES WILL BE OCCURRING AT HIGHER LATITUDES THIS PERIOD AS A

DEEP VORTEX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK

AND REFORMS CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF NORTH AMERICA. THE

EXPECTED LATITUDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SHOULD KEEP SYSTEMS

PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES/LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. A

POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN

PACIFIC SHIFTS THE QUASI-ZONAL PACIFIC JET STREAM NORTHWARD FROM

CALIFORNIA BACK TO THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD ALLOW

ENERGY/TROUGHING TO DIG DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PLAINS.

EARLY ON..00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN COMPROMISE WITH THE SYSTEM

LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CANADA. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT

WEEK...THE GUIDANCE CONVERGES TO SOME DEGREE WITH TROUGHING MOVING

ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE THE MODELS DIVERGE ONCE

MORE...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF DROPPING A DEEP CYCLONE

INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE THE 00Z GFS KICKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD.

BOTH CAMPS HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEANS TO AVOID BEING DISMISSED. BIASES IN THE GUIDANCE

COME INTO PLAY AT THIS POINT IN THE DECISION AS THE 00Z

CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF CAN BE TOO SLOW TO PROGRESS SYSTEMS BEYOND 120

HOURS/FIVE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE WHILE THE GFS CAN BE TOO QUICK

WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES. LATEST 06Z GFS HAS GONE TO A

CONSIDERABLY SLOW SOLUTION AS IT JOINS THE CMC/UKMET/ECMWF CAMP

BUT MAY BE NOW TOO SLOW. THIS HAS LED HPC UPDATED MORNING PROGS TO

A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS SOLUTION THRU THE PERIOD ALLOWING A SOUTHERN

STREAM CYCLONE TO FORM IN TEXAS BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TO OFF

THE NEW ENG COAST BY DAY 7 FRI.

POTENTIAL MDT TO HVY SNOW EVENT FRO ERN MN/NRN WI AND TEH NRN

PENINSULA OF MI MONDAY. HEAVY PCPN WILL CONTINUE IN THE CA SIERRA

EARLY PERIOD THEN SHIFT NWD INTO B.C. AND THE

PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND COASTAL RANGES AFTER BY WEEK. HEAVY

RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP FOR EASTERN TX MID WEEK.

[wxmx]

The forecasted pattern, with the potent cutoff low in N MX reminds me a bit of 03/18/2008. Dust storm and 70mph winds in Monterrey, and 2 inches of dust inside our house.

[Ed Lizard]

TWC has their thunderstorm threat quite a bit farther West into Texas (tahn the SPC SWODY2), to around the US 59 corridor. SHV, FWD and HGX discos are strongly on the SPC side, and as a rule I trust the NWS over TWC. But a boy can hope. A severe hors d'ouvres before the main mid week course would be interesting.

[#NoPoles]

Ed, it's lonely in this thread...hope this storm is one to put a dent in your drought!

[Ed Lizard]

Ed, it's lonely in this thread...hope this storm is one to put a dent in your drought!

Steve has pinned a mid-week Southern Plains storm thread.

[Ed Lizard]

Good thing on having a pinned thread, as the NAM cap is Kevlar armored high tensile steel locally tomorrow evening.

Edit to add- GFS cap is Kevlar coated, but ordinary carbon steel.

[Ed Lizard]

I suspect this is the first moderate SWODY1 of 2012 (I could be wrong), and Louisiana catches a tiny piece of it.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY

AFTERNOON...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 70 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL

CREATE A STRONG WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. INTERACTION

BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL JETS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE

GREATEST AS DISCRETE STORMS INITIATE IN ERN AR AND MOVE EWD INTO NW

MS AND INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS

FOR MEMPHIS AT 03Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 400 TO

450 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH A

LONG-TRACK TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO

HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS

CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE

GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A LINE FORMS

THIS EVENING AND MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN...NRN MS AND NRN

AL. SOME WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 70 KT APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE

STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

[Srain]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

353 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST

TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT MIX DOWNWARD. A

FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE

REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CAP HAS HELD OUT ACROSS THE REGION

AND NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN OUT OF

ANY OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE

AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION

FOR MONDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE

WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO

AND BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE

NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR TUESDAY. THE

HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH

EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE

LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EXPANDS EASTWARD AS AN ELONGATED

SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL

FLOW ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH AND PW VALUES OF BETWEEN 1.6

AND 1.8 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS

ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF OUTPUT HAS

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS

EVEN HAVING A FEW 4 TO 6 INCH TOTALS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN

COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SOME

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE

PRIMARY THREAT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS

WILL PRODUCE 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 ACROSS THE

REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LI VALUES OF BETWEEN -2 AND -4.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH CAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN

500-800 ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE IN

THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF THE THREAT

CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED.

THE RAINFALL WILL END FOR MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR

THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT

WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION.

DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE

FLOW RETURNING BY SUNDAY.

[Srain]

We also have a dust storm ongoing across N Central and N TX this afternoon. The FAA has a ground stop for inbound flights into DFW for gusty W cross winds and some damage reports with gusts to 70+mph are being reported...

[bubba hotep]

Yeah, while I was out on my run I noticed that the planes were coming in on an odd flight path. I also had to cut my run short because my mouth was getting all gritty from all the dust. Not that I minded, running in that wind was a beat down.

[bubba hotep]

The 12z NAM has the heaviest rain to the west of where the 12z GFS likes it. DFW should get a nice soaking regardless.

[baroclinic_instability]

http://www.americanw...ns/page__st__35

Please give the posts by Srain and I some consideration.

[Srain]

The SPC has expanded the Slight Risk to now include SE TX and the HPC is mentioning 2-3+ inches of very heavy rainfall for Central/SE TX with isolated totals of 5+ inches of rain where training sets up in a SW to NE axis from a line from San Antonio to Shreveport and E of that line. PW's of 1.7+ are expected setting the stage for significant very heavy rainfall rates with flooding possible. Severe storms with damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes are expected to begin to develop today across W Central Texas and move E overnight and continue on Wednesday. A deep upper low will rapidly strengthen throughout the day into Wednesday with a 50+ kt low level jet E of this Low shifting E in time. Upper level winds suggest rotating cells and training storms as well as a surface low developing near Corpus translating NE into Wednesday. The 00Z NAM was considered too far N with the axis of heavy rains into OK and was discounted. This is a significant weather event and should be monitored closely today into tomorrow as rainfall rates could exceed 2+ inches per hour and any quickly spin up of tornadoes will likely be rain wrapped and form with little warning. Flash Flooding may well be expected as well and look for very quickly changing developments over the next 24-36 hours. Stay Tuned for further updates.

[#NoPoles]

so, it's pouring in ABQ...pouring for desert standards...wish there were better radars out here...or weather/hwy cams...can't tell what it's doing at Mt Taylor...

[Srain]

so, it's pouring in ABQ...pouring for desert standards...wish there were better radars out here...or weather/hwy cams...can't tell what it's doing at Mt Taylor...

Stay safe, Diane. The U/L appears much stronger than previously thought at this time. The models may well have under estimated this potent cyclone.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Potent upper level storm system will bring heavy rainfall and some severe weather to the region tonight-Wednesday.

Upper level storm system clearly noted on water vapor images moving eastward through the southern Rockies and northern MX this morning with a sub-tropical jet aligned from the central Pacific to coastal TX to southern GA. At the surface a weak warm front has developed and extends from near Corpus Christi ENE along the TX coast to offshore of the Louisiana coast. South of this boundary the air mass is exceptionally humid with mid and western Gulf of Mexico NOAA buoys showing higher than normal dewpoints for this time of year…a result on the mild winter and lack of Gulf cold air intrusions. Potent upper level storm system will dig into northern MX and SW TX today and slow its eastward progression while height falls ahead of this storm result in the formation of surface low pressure on the western end of the warm front over south TX. Increasing southerly low level flow on the east side of this surface low will result in the northward movement of the warm front inland across SE TX this afternoon and evening. Surface low will then track NE overnight into Wednesday morning along and east of I-35 with an expanding warm sector (warm, humid, and usually unstable air mass south of the warm front) across much of eastern TX.

This afternoon-midnight:

Lift will begin this afternoon as the warm front moves northward and sub-tropical jet cores overhead. Expect showers to begin to develop and spread northward across the region in a warm air advection pattern. Increasing dewpoints near the coast/offshore will bring sea fog into the coastal areas by early evening. Instability looks limited this afternoon, but increasing lift and favorable southerly low level inflow could result in a few thunderstorms.

Overnight-Wednesday afternoon:

Strong upper level storm will move into central TX with deepening surface low and cold front moving ENE across central and east TX. Overnight a strong low level jet of 30-45kts will develop over the region transporting copious deep tropical moisture northward off the western Gulf. Surface low formation over southern TX will back low level wind fields to the ESE and SE below increasing WSW mid level flow creating increasingly favorable low level shear. While the warm sector over coastal TX may initially be somewhat capped, increasing lift from the upper level low and favorable splitting jet stream structure along with mid level cooling from the cold pool aloft all support increasing thunderstorms after midnight in the warm sector. These storms will move SSW to NNE across the region in narrow bands and will have the greatest threat for low level rotation and tornadoes. At the same time a line of thunderstorms will develop over central into SW TX along the advancing cold front. This line will grow upscale into a squall line/linear thunderstorm complex by sunrise Wednesday as it moves east of I-35. Supercells will be possible both along this line and ahead of the line with a tornado and wind damage threat. Line should reach our western counties from Matagorda Bay to College Station around sunrise and into the metro Houston area between 1000am and 100pm. Wind damage and isolated tornadoes will be the main severe modes tonight-Wednesday.

In addition to the severe threat, tremendous moisture will be pumped into the region tonight with levels forecasted to reach near historical high amounts for late January. Surface to high level moisture amounts when integrated through the air column reach 1.7 inches which is at or above the +2 SD for this time of year. This combined with the threat for cells to repeatedly move over the same region….training…or supercells to anchor and slow in the low level flow are strongly pointing toward an excessive rainfall and flash flood event. Heaviest rains appear currently to be focused near/along I-35 where the surface low will track, but will not discount the threat for cell training over SE TX and the capability of this air mass to produce some very heavy short term totals of 2-3 inches in an hour or less. Rainfall of this magnitude will result in significant runoff into area watersheds producing rapid rises along with the threat for urban flash flooding in areas where the rainfall rates greatly exceeds the ability of the primary drainage system to convey the stormwater. Where the training bands will set up is almost impossible to determine until they form, but the area north of I-10 appears to have the greater potential for the heaviest rainfall t the moment.

Widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall will be common with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches possible. Given the depth of the moisture in place along with increasingly warm rainfall production, would not be surprised to see a few totals of 6 inches or greater in a few isolated spots.

[#NoPoles]

the really cool thing about ABQ is the different elevations of various parts of the city...for instance, i'm in old downtown which is pretty much at the level of the Rio Grande and we have been getting off and on rain...however, at the base of the Sandia Mtn Tram...NE of me, they have been getting snow...if i get motivated i might drive around and check things out...but as of right now, i'm not motivated

[bubba hotep]

Big time gully washer!

[DoctorMu]

Big time gully washer!

Looks like a more potent northern event. A N/S line should form in the HIll Country tonight with storms moving E late tonight. Still hoping for another inch or two.

[bubba hotep]

We got absolutely pounded up here in Collin County. I don't have a rain gauge but the radar estimates look to confirm what I was thinking - that it freaking stormed all night!

[DoctorMu]

We had a bow echo just after 7 am in CLL and a tornado warning. About 7:05 I heard a significant wind even outside. It was still quite dark, but funnel clouds possibly in the area. In the aftermath we discovered part of my back fence was down!

[Quixotic1]

We got absolutely pounded up here in Collin County. I don't have a rain gauge but the radar estimates look to confirm what I was thinking - that it freaking stormed all night!

Over 4.5" at McKinney from this storm. Over 4" at DFW. Don't think there's been such a heavy widespread event in some time.

[JoMo]

Congrats on the drought relief.

[My Weather Today]

Glad ya'll got some good rains up there. It doesn't seem that long ago you were making posts like this...

Hope? From FW NWS. They must be as bored as I am:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

553 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011/

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH DAY SEVEN. WE STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY

AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT ECMWF

PROGS THIS SHORT WAVE WEAKER THAN THE GFS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW

FOR NOW.

OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...BY DAY NINE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS

SPLIT THE RIDGE...WITH ONE HIGH CENTER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND

THE OTHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHEAST. IF THIS OCCURS...WE MAY

SEE MORE EXTENSIVE RAIN CHANCES THAN WE HAVE HAD FOR A LONG

TIME...AS WELL AS A BREAK FROM 100 DEGREE HIGHS. 84

[Quixotic1]

Glad ya'll got some good rains up there. It doesn't seem that long ago you were making posts like this...

I know. I'm the regional ray of sunshine. Hopeful that with the unexpected active STJ and the models showing ENSO SSTs rebounding to neutral levels that this summer won't be nearly as bad.

[Srain]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Almost two weeks to the date of the last severe weather event in southeast Texas, the area was dealt another round yesterday. Below is the preliminary storm reports, several locations are being surveyed today to determine if the damage was straight line winds or a tornado.

Caldwell, Burleson Co: Barn damaged and roof/structural damage to house on CR 116

College Station, Brazos Co: Garage door blown in and damage to roofs at the intersection of Hwy 30 and FM 158

College Station, Brazos Co: Brick building wall knocked down near Texas A&M University at Texas Ave and University Dr

Brenham, Washington Co: Tornado (EF0 rating) with winds of 85mph. See below link for damage information.

Somerville, Burleson Co: Winds destroyed tin tire shop on SH 36. Estimated winds of 65mph.

Brenham, Washington Co: Airport AWOS site recorded wind gust to 70mph

Madisonville, Madison Co: barn and tin shed flattened, twisted metal in tree tops at the intersection of FM 1452 and FM 2289. Suspected tornado…survey ongoing.

Madisonville, Madison Co: 18-wheeler on I-45 at mile marker 145 blown over blocking freeway.

Bedias, Grimes Co: Hay barn destroyed, grain silo knocked over and trees down along FM 6096 (possible tornado)

Huntsville, Walker Co: Widespread win damage across the city to trees and power lines. Survey ongoing.

Pinehurst, Montgomery Co: trees downed likely from straight line winds.

Rosenberg, Fort Bend Co: trees and power lines down along FM 360 north of Hwy 90 from strong straight line winds. Winds estimated by radar or 60mph.

Rosenberg, Fort Bend Co: Flash flooding of several streets in the Pecan grove subdivision with most streets impassable. Water was waist deep on some streets.

Pearland, Brazoria Co: Tornado (EF0), peak winds of 65-85mph. See link below for damage path.

Austin, Travis Co: Tornado (unrated) Extensive damage to an industrial park with the tornado crossing US 290 and striking the Walnut Place subdivision. Damage path was 1.14 miles long and 50 yards wide. Photos below from the NE Austin tornado damage.

Note: The 5.66 inches of rainfall yesterday at Austin Bergstorm Airport was the greatest single day rainfall since 7.04 inches fell on 9-7-2010 during the passage of TS Hermine.

Detailed damage surveys and maps are available on the Pearland and Brenham Tornadoes at the link below:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=severe_2012_01_25

Persons in DFW drive around a barricade into high water

Below is tow of the three 911 calls of a resident from Haltom City, TX who drive into high water and needed to be rescued:

Caller: "I don't know if I can get out of my car, because there's so much water out there."

Operator: "Just stay where you're at. They'll be there as quick as they can."

The third call comes 20 minutes after the first, as Haltom City fire fighters are tying off and launching a boat into the rushing water.

Caller: "It's Robert Jeffress again. The water is up to my chest. I'm freezing to death out here."

Operator: "They're coming as quick as they can."

Caller: "Okay. I'm going to drown here in a little bit."

Never Drive into High Water!

Excessvie rainfall of 4-6 inches over north Texas has led to significant rises on the upper Trinity River to levels above flood stage at Dallas. A flood wave has been generated on the upper Trinity basin and this water will be moving down the river over the next 1-2 weeks. For the first time in almost a year, Lake Livingston has a positive conservation pool level (or is above 100% capacity). While inflow is still entering Lake Conore from the recent rainfall, this lake remains down almost 6 feet from its conservation pool. Still waiting to see how much inflow is brought into the Highland Lakes above Austin on the middle Colorado basin. Lake Travis was still down over 54.0 ft as of yesterday.

Weather:

Upper level storm responsible for the weather event yesterday is progressing into the MS valley this afternoon with low level stratus breaking up across the region under cold NW surface winds. Fairly quite weather pattern will be in place through the early part of next week as zonal to WNW upper air pattern returns. A cold front will cross the area on Satruday helping to knock temperatures back to seasonal levels for the weekend after hgihs reach near 70 on Friday. Will see a gradual warming trend starting Monday as winds turn back to the SE and Gulf moisture begins to return to the area. Another front appears likely to cross the area late Tuesday or early Wednesday, but mositure return ahead of this feature will be weak and model QPF (rainfall) amounts are on the very low side at the moment. Temperatures will cool down once again by the middle of next week, but still no real cold arctic air intrusion into the state…as the cold air remains locked in Canada this winter. Overall and fairly mild and dry looking 7-10 days ahead.