Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[DoctorMu]

Anything S of I-10 or E of I-45 will stay on the ride. Lakes and reservoirs will be happy, just stay out of the traffic if possible. CLL is being dry-slotted from the SW and less than 0.4 in...this should start moving east clearing things out a bit later today.

[Flexo]

IAH was completely dry slotted with this event. The "official" rain total for today won't even be an inch

[Roy]

Good 4 inches of snow in Midland and still coming down. A little concerned about some breaks in the snow bands, but that may fill in as the low moves a bit east. update: officially 5 inches at Midland Airport, which would make this the snowiest winter ever.

[bubba hotep]

Good 4 inches of snow in Midland and still coming down. A little concerned about some breaks in the snow bands, but that may fill in as the low moves a bit east. update: officially 5 inches at Midland Airport, which would make this the snowiest winter ever.

That is awesome! Ya'll are having a kick arse winter

[Srain]

Update from Jeff:

Excessive training thunderstorms that have produced 4-6 inches of rainfall over parts of the area today are moving toward the coast and offshore.

Tremendous amounts of run-off are in progress across the area with bayous nearing bankfull in southwestern Harris and parts of Fort Bend counties. Ending of heavy rainfall should allow ongoing street flooding to drain off with watersheds starting to crest and fall in the next few hours. Brays Bayou was especially hard hit with 4-6 inches widespread across the entire watersheds leading to very high flow along this channel through the Texas Medical Center http://fas3.flood-alert.org/#Cameras:Large%20Scale (Camera view of the Harris Gully outfall in Brays Bayou at TMC). Bayou has breached its banks downstream of SH 288 and is 3 ft overbanks at Lawndale.

Additional light rainfall will be possible through the afternoon hours, but the excessive rainfall is over. Severe threat will be ended shortly as small warm sector is pushed off shore ending the tornado threat.

Numerous severe reports have been reported today from possible tornadoes in Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties along with widespread street flooding resulting in stranded vehicles and high water rescues. Will compile a storm report Tuesday morning once reports are in.

Water levels in Harris County Bayous can be view at this website:

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[Ed Lizard]

Under an inch IMBY per HGX 88D, and DWH and IAH seem to support that, which is a little disappointing, but its better than my house flooding. Co-worker in Ft Bend county got a video from his neighborhood of his house with water to the front door.

Always looking on the bright side of life.

[DoctorMu]

Good 4 inches of snow in Midland and still coming down. A little concerned about some breaks in the snow bands, but that may fill in as the low moves a bit east. update: officially 5 inches at Midland Airport, which would make this the snowiest winter ever.

Kewl. Well over half a foot in Monahans and Andrews and still coming down.

[Ed Lizard]

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

416 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.05 INCHES WAS SET AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT

TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.54 SET IN 1955.

[andyhb]

1900 4 SE DICKINSON GALVESTON TX 2941 9503 LAW ENFORCEMENT WITNESSED TOUCH DOWN NEAR MALL OF THE MAINLAND IN TEXAS CITY. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF VEHICLES IN PARKING LOT. ROOF OF MALL DAMAGED.

First tornado report of the year.

[Srain]

MAF reports 10.4 and counting. Not too shabby...

[Quixotic1]

Good 4 inches of snow in Midland and still coming down. A little concerned about some breaks in the snow bands, but that may fill in as the low moves a bit east. update: officially 5 inches at Midland Airport, which would make this the snowiest winter ever.

Awesome. Good to see west texas make out like a bandit this year.

[Ed Lizard]

Awesome. Good to see west texas make out like a bandit this year.

I hope more melts than sublimates. They need to moisture.

Short term, unless one gets excited by dry cool weather, not much to talk about near term. Maybe a light freeze Friday morning.

[Ed Lizard]

Damage survey #1 is in, an EF-1 near Sugarland, waiting on #2 and #3. Mall of the Mainland is closed...

[Srain]

E-mail from Jeff with yesterdays storm reports:

Very active weather day across the area on Monday with both severe weather and flooding rainfall. Below is a list of some of the reports. Damage assessments are still ongoing across the area.

12 NE Bryan, Brazos: Trees blown down near OSR and Fountain Swiss Rd

Trinity, Trinity: Trees down along FM 230 from the County line to Trinity

East Bernard: Austin: Ping pong ball size hail reported

3 WNW Sugar Land, Fort Bend: Funnel cloud reported by Hull Airport tower.

2 SE Katy, Harris: .88 inch hail at HWY 99 and Fry Rd

Mission Bend, Fort Bend: 1.0 in hail

2 N Richmond, Fort Bend: Penny size hail at Bellaire and HWY 99

4 WNW Meadows, Fort Bend: Tornado (EF1). Damage to houses, fences, windows in the Mission Bend area. Damage path .5 of a mile long and 50 yards wide. Winds of 95mph near the intersection of Bissonnet and Gains Rd. Significant roof damage to 10 homes along Royal Way.

Below is video of strong winds from this storm/tornado impacting a repair shop along HWY 6

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?section=news/local&id=8495542

Richmond, Fort Bend: High Water rescues at 3rd street, apartments flooded.

SW Houston, Harris: HFD worked numerous high water rescues with vehicles in 4-5 feet water.

Houston, Harris: House flooding in the Fleetwood, and Barker’s Landing subdivisions east of HWY 6 and south of I-10 along Buffalo Bayou

Houston, Harris: Severe flooding of SH 288 at Holly Hall from back water from Brays Bayou

Myerland, Harris: Significant street flooding and possible house flooding from bankfull Brays Bayou

The Meadows, Fort Bend: Overbank flooding on Keegans Bayou at US 59/Beltway 8 impacting several structures in Fort Bend County.

5 WNW First Colony, Fort Bend: Cars under water in the New Territory subdivision, residents trapped in homes

Sugar Land, Fort Bend: vehicles trapped in high water on Settlers Way and Lexington Blvd

2 SE Bonney, Brazoria: 2 18-wheelers blown over at SH 288 and CR 48…possible tornado.

Dickenson, Galveston: Tornado touch down at Mall of the Mainland producing structural damage to the mall. Numerous car windows blown out

[Srain]

The forecast continues to look promising for the weekend activities. A strong Canadian front will pass early morning Thursday bringing very gusty N/NW winds with gusts into the 30 mph+ range making for a chilly day. Temps on Friday may be tricky as high/mid level colds and strong CAA continues keeping highs in the mid/upper 40's. An approaching upper level shortwave looks to bring high/mid level clouds late Friday. A light freeze appears on tap Friday and possibly Saturday morning.

The medium/long range guidance is suggesting light rain/showers return early next week as a weak U/L ejects E from CA and a coastal trough develops along the Lower TX Coast. A zonal split flow develops and another upper trough swings SE with an attending front mid week bringing another dry push of chilly air. The coldest air will remain to our E as a trough develops along the EC. The long range GFS/Euro is also sniffing a potent storm near the 25th, +/- a couple of days that offers another heavy rain event for Central/SE TX. The $64,000 question is where will the cold air building across Canada be located?

Indications increase that a SSW/MWW event is under way, but exactly where that major cold air travels remains in question. It does appear January will offer chances of some much needed rains to ease our drought. Interesting days ahead, gang. Stay Tuned and GO TEXANS!

[Ed Lizard]

Fire weather watch for SE Texas following tonight's cold front. I'd hope the generally decent rains this week would reduce the chances. Areas well to the Northwest which didn't do as well, I suppose dead trees would be dry near the top.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Strong cold front will sweep across the region tonight with significantly colder temperatures for the end of the week. Light freezes likely both Friday and Saturday mornings across much of the area.

Upper air pattern is in the process of amplifying this morning with a cold Canadian air mass dropping southward down the plains. Prior to this front reaching SE TX, abundant sunshine and weak WSW low level flow will push afternoon highs today toward 70. Strong front will cross the region tonight with strong cold air advection in place all day Thursday. Highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees at most locations under strong NW winds of 20-30mph.

A very dry air mass with dewpoints into the lower 20’s for most locations will settle over the region Thursday night. Winds may not completely go calm and this may help mitigate the rapid temperature fall that would be normal on a clear and calm night. Even so, with dewpoints so low, feel most areas will fall below freezing and some locations could be below freezing for 4-8 hours. Since all locations have already froze this year and we are not looking at temperatures below 25 for more than 2 hours a freeze or hard freeze warning will not be issued. Most locations look to bottom out in the 26-30 degree range with lows in the 29-33 range within the urban heat cores. Could be colder on Saturday morning, but surface high begins to move eastward allowing a weak onshore component to the wind which will keep the overnight lows up some…still expect most locations to reach freezing again Saturday morning.

Warming trend starts on Saturday as surface high slides east allowing more sustain and uniform onshore flow to develop. Upper level flow becomes increasing SW over the weekend allowing Pacific moisture and upper level disturbance to impinge from the SW. Combination of weak disturbances aloft should help force a middle to lower TX coast trough, but the location and intensity of this trough will determine if rain chances need to be introduced and when. Current indications suggest that any rain chances will likely hold off until Sunday evening or even Monday at the earliest as the next upper level storm system approaches in the time frame. Plenty of time to watch and tweak rain chances and amounts for Sun-Mon as at some point it looks like widespread rains may impact the area again.

Note: The 4.06 inches of rainfall recorded on Monday at Hobby Airport as put this climate site 2.89 inches above normal for January, but the rainfall departure since October 2010 is still over 20.0 inches at this site. 4-6 inches of rainfall over the San Jacinto River watershed led to Lake Conroe rising .8 of a foot from Monday to today, but the lake is still over 6 feet below its normal conservation pool elevation. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions remain across much of the area, even with the recent rainfall events giving a testament of how severe and behind the rainfall deficits have become over the last 13 months. I will get a new update out on the drought by the end of the month.

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise some light rain early next week as the U/L off the California Coast moves inland and E across the Southern Rockies. The GFS also suggests a coastal trough will develop and keep some moisture/clouds around as the mid next week front stalls and begins to wash out along or near the Coast. It is also noteworthy that the GFS continues to sniff a potent storm crossing the S Plains around the 25th with some 'colder' air lurking just to the N of Texas. While we do warm up, rain chances do continue throughout the long range with an active Pacific pattern and a zonal flow and some STJ action as well.

[Quixotic1]

To date, DFW area officially has 7 days this winter where the temp has reached 32 or lower. Our winter average for number of days at or below freezing is 35. The fewest number of freezes (occurring three times in '30-'31, '31-'32 and most recently 1999-2000) is 14. I don't think it's a stretch to say that record is very much in reach. Combine this with the brutal summer we had and the possibility of another arid summer this year and it looks very bleak indeed.

[Ed Lizard]

If an EF-0 actually caused partial roof damage at the Mall of the Mainland, the engineers who designed it, or the contractors who didn't build it to spec, should lose licenses.

No building in Galveston County should suffer significant damage in Saffir-Simpson Cat low end Cat 2 winds, even if it is raining heavily at the time.

(Not a registered professional engineer, but have the degree).

[JoMo]

If an EF-0 actually caused partial roof damage at the Mall of the Mainland, the engineers who designed it, or the contractors who didn't build it to spec, should lose licenses.

No building in Galveston County should suffer significant damage in Saffir-Simpson Cat low end Cat 2 winds, even if it is raining heavily at the time.

(Not a registered professional engineer, but have the degree).

yeah an EF-0 is definately below what the roof should be able to withstand. Here in Joplin, they are built for a min of 90 MPH.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Strong cold front has passed through the region overnight with very gusty winds.

Winds continue to blow this morning and will continue through the day. At 600am winds were gusting to 44 at Victoria at 36 at Galveston with most location averaging between 20-35mph. High pressure building down the plains into TX will keep winds strong through the late afternoon hours before weakening this evening. Impressive cold air advection will be in place today and temperatures will rise only into the upper 40’s for most locations. High level cirrus clouds out west are spilling into the region and this may limit heating by a few degrees.

Main concern is tonight/Friday AM and how cold will it get. A look at upstream observations show dewpoints in the mid teens over N TX spilling southward and expect dewpoints to fall into the upper teens/lower 20’s across the region by this afternoon. Ridge axis tonight should be just west of the region, so do not think winds will go completely calm except possibly toward sunrise over our western counties. Will also have some high level cirrus moving across. Guidance has lows in the mid to upper 20’s at most locations by Friday morning and this seems reasonable given the above mentioned factors. Typically the second night behind a cold front is the colder night as winds usually remain a little too strong the first night. Even so, expect at least 4-6 hours of sub-freezing temperatures at most locations and possibly 6-10 hours north of I-10. Could see a few of our typically cold sites (Conroe) drop at/or below 25 for a couple of hours…nearing hard freeze warning criteria. Given the duration below freezing at most locations, sensitive tropical plants should be protected along with pets.

Fire Weather:

Other concern today will be fire weather conditions given very strong surface winds, very dry air, and low afternoon RH. While many areas did see welcomed wetting rainfall on Monday, both our NW and SW counties were generally missed by the rains and only averaged less than .5 of an inch. With fine fuels (grasses) dominate or dead from recent freezes, these fuels will dry very quickly in strong winds and dry air. Red Flag Warning is in effect for Brazos, Washington, and Burleson counties for today and we will be very borderline over Jackson, Wharton, and Colorado counties. Should any fires get started, strong surface winds of 20-30mph will result in explosive forward spread.

Extended:

Increasingly zonal upper air pattern will begin to push the cold surface high eastward by late Saturday with another freeze likely on Saturday morning. SE winds will return by late Saturday with a gradual warming trend into early next week ahead of the next storm system. Moisture return looks fairly decent by Sunday afternoon and rain chances will be back into the forecast by Sunday night into Monday as the next system moves into the state from the west. Rainfall coverage and amounts look minimal with this system at this time. Temperatures will warm back to near 70 by Monday ahead of the next cold front early Tuesday morning.

Houston Marathon Forecast:

Looks to be decent running weather on Sunday morning with lows in the mid to upper 30’s at the start of the race warming to the mid 40’s by 1000am and lower 50’s by noon under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the ESE at 3-8mph, increasingly slightly toward noon.

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS/Canadian continue to advertise clouds and light rain returns Sunday as the cut off upper low off the California Coast ejects E and shears out. Rain chance appear to be rather light as that system weakens and a weak frontal boundary slowly drops S and stalls near the Texas Coast. There are some indications a weak wave of low pressure may develop along the Lower Texas Coast providing for lingering clouds and some possible over running moisture as we head later into next week.

The GFS is still sniffing a potent storm system near the 25th, +/- a couple of days and 'colder air' lurking to the N. A warm up appears to be ahead during the mid month time frame as well as an active zonal flow brings plentiful moisture to the Pacific NW and N CA and a battle zone air masses with very cold air in Canada building S into the Northern Plains and warmer temps S and along the East Coast.

[ouamber]

The 12Z GFS/Canadian continue to advertise clouds and light rain returns Sunday as the cut off upper low off the California Coast ejects E and shears out. Rain chance appear to be rather light as that system weakens and a weak frontal boundary slowly drops S and stalls near the Texas Coast. There are some indications a weak wave of low pressure may develop along the Lower Texas Coast providing for lingering clouds and some possible over running moisture as we head later into next week.

The GFS is still sniffing a potent storm system near the 25th, +/- a couple of days and 'colder air' lurking to the N. A warm up appears to be ahead during the mid month time frame as well as an active zonal flow brings plentiful moisture to the Pacific NW and N CA and a battle zone air masses with very cold air in Canada building S into the Northern Plains and warmer temps S and along the East Coast.

Srain, explain "sniffing" it out because it looks like the 12Z GFS wants to move that system further east...any thoughts now? I am not a met...so just curious...I don't see any snow exept MAYBE north central OK??

[Srain]

Srain, explain "sniffing" it out because it looks like the 12Z GFS wants to move that system further east...any thoughts now? I am not a met...so just curious...I don't see any snow exept MAYBE north central OK??

"Sniffing out" is probably a poor choice of words and shows my age when discussing models... When there is variability or low confidence in guidance, I'll often use that term as well as 'hints'. The 12Z Euro is suggesting a trough to the W and does match with what the GFS has offered as a possible solution for the 25th time frame. That said, I have very little faith in all the guidance that far out and particularly this year. We've seen way too many run to run flip flopping for my tastes since December. Just something to watch...for now...

[Srain]

Looking at the long range/late January time frame, guidance is still 'sniffing' a potent storm crossing the Plains around the 25, +/- a couple of days. That trend has continued today and with the warmth expected over the next 7-10 days, the stage is being set for a possible severe weather event in the warm sector and much colder air spilling S as that storm complex passes off to the E.

[ouamber]

I'm having a hard time looking at those maps above, where is the freezing line for the "sniffed" out 25+/- storm? What would be considered the warm sector...OK/TX?

[#NoPoles]

all quiet in ABQ...20's at night, 40's during the day...maybe into the upper 50's next week...went out for my first day of work friday...above 6000ft...coming from 200ft ASL i had a headache all day and was noticeably winded while hiking the 2miles to get to our work site...but i still kept up with my co-workers who have been out here for a while .but the air away from the city is crisp and clean...it's lovely to breathe

[Srain]

all quiet in ABQ...20's at night, 40's during the day...maybe into the upper 50's next week...went out for my first day of work friday...above 6000ft...coming from 200ft ASL i had a headache all day and was noticeably winded while hiking the 2miles to get to our work site...but i still kept up with my co-workers who have been out here for a while .but the air away from the city is crisp and clean...it's lovely to breathe

Those headaches will ease in the days ahead, Diane. Also, you need to update your profile to your new location...

[#NoPoles]

Those headaches will ease in the days ahead, Diane. Also, you need to update your profile to your new location...

that will come in time...once i'm not so homesick...